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Best signal a team will win a title soon?

Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:11 pm
by Crow
What is the best signal a team will win a title next yr, year after or either? What has highest correlation:

last playoffs advancement
adjusted regular season srs
adjusted playoff srs
RS or playoff off or def rtg
ts% differential
star player winshares or rpm
top 3 winshares or rpm
record against defending champ
RS wins
RS or playoff clutchness
record or adjusted srs against top 10 or 5 in general or top 3 within conference
past record of coach and / or gm
market history or size
q rating of superstar
whatever else you can think of

Re: Best signal a team will win a title soon?

Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:24 pm
by colts18
The best signal is that they won a title previously

Re: Best signal a team will win a title soon?

Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:33 pm
by Crow
Almost certainly, forgot to list that as I was focused on seeking first in current window (3,5,7 yrs).

if one had the data, what is the best signal of repeat?

Re: Best signal a team will win a title soon?

Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:12 am
by Dr Positivity
Here's an impressive one. Teams who've had the best record in the league (or tied for it) at least twice within a 5 year timespan in the shot clock era:

57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65 Celtics: Titles for everyone!
66, 67, 68 76ers: Win 67 title
71, 74 Bucks: Win 71 title
72, 77 Lakers: Win 72 title
73, 75 Celtics: Win 74 and 76 titles, weirdly
75, 79 Bullets: Win 78 title
80, 81, 82, 84, 85, 86 Celtics: Win 81, 84, 86 titles (Best record 6 out of 7 years = impressive/underrated, by the way)
81, 83 76ers: Win 83 title
87, 88, 90 Lakers: Win 87 and 88 titles
92, 96, 97, 98 Bulls: Win 92, 96, 97, 98 titles
98, 99 Jazz: First Price is Right sad horn (they also tied for 1st both years for what it's worth)
99, 01, 03 Spurs: Win 99, 03, 05, 07 titles
03, 07 Mavs: Win the '11 title
09, 10 Cavs: The truest fail of the list with 2 outright best records in a row, no health problems, no lockout. But can still make up for it.
11, 12 Bulls: D-Rose screwed this one, but again, this ain't over
12, 14 Spurs: Win 14 title

So basically it's so hard to finish with the best record that if you do it twice, the odds of getting a title in that era have to be strong