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Were any non-title winning teams in last 7 years within one move of winning the title? Several teams were within a game or a few plays of winning a title as is. I am mainly interested in those who were one but only one move away. Can't generally say for sure that a trade or free agent signing was actually possible so my focus is on draft picks. This could be done for other teams but I will start with the Thunder.

Would any of these alternatively available draft picks have led to a title by now?

Noah for Green
M Gasol instead of trading 2nd rounder for cash
Love for Westbrook
Asik or Dragic instead of trading for DJ White
Curry instead of Harden
T Gibson instead of trading for Mullens
Bledsoe instead of a trade for a future pick
Mason Plumlee over Adams?

Then there was the Chandler trade for not that much, actually made but then rescinded.

We will never know, but I think some of these might have made the difference. A simulation test might be a closer judge but again not proof. If any one of these things happened the availability of the future ones would be in doubt but might in some cases also still been available depending on regular season impact of the first alternate selection. If you could have made two of these moves, that would seem like enough to make a title a much higher possibility.

Crow, always enjoy your posts on RealGM and Welcome To Loud City as well!

As for these, I definitely don't think Adams/Plumlee would have, as I think Adams is as good now, and has a higher ceiling. The others are questionable with the big one being Noah to me. The issue I see is a butterfly effect though where a single move would change everything after it. Do they then still follow the same draft picks the following years? Would these trades/choices effect development of the other players? No moves are in a vacuum, so I don't think a single thing can be said to have that great an effect.

Yes, I agreed with side effects. A really detailed analysis estimating player impacts from rpm estimates could estimate the draft order impacts and a thoughtful roster review could estimate minute impacts on other players which could be followed by some speculation about development / retention impacts. If fully pursued this could be more than what it is right now. I just did the first layer, not knowing if I wanted to spend the time on a more elaborate a story
about a what if scenario. Thanks for the reply.

No problem. I just feel like a single decision years ago could change so much. For example, they draft Noah, do they then still take Ibaka as a second rim protecting big the following season? The Perk trade never happens, but they still need a PF then, and may make moves for that. Just so many trickle down possibilities.

After taking Noah for Green, they might have needed to restrain Noah's minutes and kept Carlesimo for another year or more of tanking or semi-tanking but they still try to take Ibaka. Maybe they have use their 31 pick to move up a little instead of using it to move up for DJ White. Worst case they use the Ibaka first rounder on Asik. If Perk never happens, then at minimum they have another first rounder retained to help the cause.

If you take Love instead of Westbrook, you probably take Bledsoe later, maybe keep Livingston, accelerate the development of R Jackson. Or you spend money not spent on Perk on a PG by free agency or other means. Maybe you try to pick up Patty Mills, Hinrich, Udrih or Lou Williams. You let Harden act as lead guard more and retain him. Or maybe you take Curry instead.

Yes it gets more speculative but there do appear to be plausibly realistic possibilities of eventually being better than they actually have been and that maybe being enough to have won a title by now. Not that this is rare, but it seems worth acknowledging when thinking about the chosen design and its results to date. The Durant era may be over soon. Roc Nation Durant might move on, without a title or even with.

TBH, Roc Nation or not, I only see DC as a plausible place for Durant to go.