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Aging curves by team quality tier
Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:26 am
by Crow
I know at least a handful of people reading here have developed aging productivity curves, spm or rapm based. Has anyone divided their data into 2-4 tiers based on average team performance for the dataset used to construct the overall aging performance curve? Are the better teams achieving a disproportionate share of the yr to yr improvement or less of the declines? It would seem likely but I don't know how pronounced it is. Internal or natural development is unlikely to be even, I think. Is there an age segment where their superiority is greatest or weakest? If so that should inform and influence the team's age distribution. The good, average or weak.
Re: Aging curves by team quality tier
Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:36 pm
by Mike G
This is fairly tangential, but I found correlations between year-to-year aging and other "miscellaneous statistics" at b-r.com, for teams from 2000 to 2014.
Code: Select all
corr stat corr stat
.288 SRS -.004 OpTO%
.245 eFG% -.140 Pace
.165 ORtg -.166 TO%
.133 3PAr -.166 Op eFG%
.113 DReb% -.206 DRtg
.057 FT/FGA -.227 OpFT/FGA
.038 FTr -.262 OReb%
The biggest jump in Team Age was the Celtics from 2007 to 2008, from 23.5 to 27.9 avg age; it's also the biggest jump in SRS, from -3.7 to +9.3
A more revealing study would be of age changes and correlations with year-3, year-5 SRS and etc
It could also be done for playoffs.
EDIT: The negative correlations with TO% and opponent rates may be misleading. Since they are better when smaller, lower corr. = improvements.
Re: Aging curves by team quality tier
Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:30 pm
by Crow
Interesting to see. Doesn't your last point apply to own turnover rate instead of opponent and all defensive factors or am I turned around?