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Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2014 7:58 pm
by Mike G
Rookies ranked by eWins projected to the end of the season
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
4.4 Nerlens Noel Phl 31 .432 8.7 8.0 2.5 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 .83
3.0 Nikola Mirotic Chi 16 .773 15.3 11.0 1.5 4.2 .7 2.2 .6 1.11
3.0 Shabazz Napier Mia 17 .789 12.5 6.1 6.1 3.9 3.2 2.6 .0 1.03
2.7 Kos. Papanikolaou Hou 21 .524 10.1 5.7 6.7 2.8 2.4 3.6 .4 .75
2.7 K.J. McDaniels Phl 20 .600 16.0 3.0 1.4 3.8 .4 1.7 2.1 .78
2.2 Elfrid Payton Orl 28 .393 8.5 4.6 8.4 5.8 .4 4.0 .0 .47
2.2 Jabari Parker Mil 34 .400 11.1 9.6 .4 1.4 1.1 3.0 .0 .38
1.8 Marcus Smart Bos 21 .404 8.4 5.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 1.1 .5 .48
1.5 Jusuf Nurkic Den 9 .385 11.8 17.2 1.3 11.3 .0 6.3 2.2 .99
1.4 James Ennis Mia 10 .765 17.4 6.3 1.3 5.3 .0 1.1 .0 .83
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.3 Andrew Wiggins Min 24 .400 10.3 7.1 1.0 5.1 2.6 4.1 1.0 .32
1.3 Dante Exum Uta 16 .600 13.3 1.8 3.1 3.2 1.6 2.6 1.1 .47
0.9 Rodney Hood Uta 18 .353 6.8 6.2 2.3 2.8 .5 .9 1.0 .31
0.8 Jordan Clarkson LAL 12 .429 10.2 5.6 2.4 4.3 2.2 1.4 .0 .44
0.7 Bojan Bogdanovic Brk 26 .457 9.9 2.0 2.6 3.4 1.0 1.4 .5 .16
0.5 Doug McDermott Chi 18 .438 8.8 4.0 1.4 3.2 .6 .7 .6 .18
Nobody else over 0.1
Total is about 30 eWins for the year; but this number always builds up over the season.
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 8:08 pm
by Mike G
At 8% of the season, rookies still sum to about 30 projected eWins; but the ranking has changed.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
3.8 Jabari Parker Mil 30 .440 13.8 7.9 .8 1.6 2.3 .2 .75
2.9 Elfrid Payton Orl 30 .368 8.3 4.8 6.6 1.9 3.7 .5 .56
2.5 Bojan Bogdanovic Brk 27 .577 14.2 3.7 1.9 1.1 1.8 .2 .55
2.4 Nerlens Noel Phl 28 .439 8.0 7.5 2.9 2.1 2.9 2.4 .71
2.2 Kos Papanikolaou Hou 25 .381 5.9 7.0 5.6 1.8 3.1 .6 .51
2.1 Dante Exum Uta 19 .580 11.7 2.7 5.1 1.0 1.5 .5 .65
2.1 K.J. McDaniels Phl 24 .551 12.6 3.2 1.5 1.0 2.5 2.5 .52
1.7 Andrew Wiggins Min 27 .466 11.6 4.9 1.3 1.6 2.3 .7 .38
1.6 Aaron Gordon Orl 16 .592 12.9 6.6 .7 .6 2.4 1.4 .58
1.5 Jusuf Nurkic Den 11 .510 13.8 13.2 1.6 .6 5.2 2.1 .97
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.2 Nikola Mirotic Chi 14 .538 9.4 8.1 2.4 .7 2.0 .6 .50
1.0 Rodney Hood Uta 15 .369 6.8 7.9 2.1 1.1 .7 .7 .46
0.9 Doug McDermott Chi 15 .625 13.8 4.1 .7 .3 1.3 .3 .37
0.9 Shabazz Napier Mia 21 .460 6.3 4.5 4.2 2.0 2.0 .2 .24
0.9 Marcus Smart Bos 20 .436 9.4 4.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 .7 .30
0.8 Zach LaVine Min 13 .563 8.3 5.5 5.0 1.7 1.8 .9 .70
0.6 Kyle Anderson SAS 31 .211 2.9 9.5 4.2 2.2 .0 .0 .59
0.6 Cleanthony Early NYK 10 .586 14.5 5.2 1.4 .8 1.6 .0 .62
0.4 Jordan Clarkson LAL 10 .429 9.0 4.7 2.2 1.9 1.3 .0 .29
0.4 James Ennis Mia 10 .487 8.4 6.6 1.5 .0 .5 .0 .21
Not one rookie seems to be an above-avg NBA player.
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:13 am
by Mike G
Season about 12% over, rookies project to less than 28 eWins. About 18 of these are in the East.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
3.7 Jabari Parker Mil 29 .447 14.1 7.4 1.2 1.5 2.2 .3 .76
2.3 Elfrid Payton Orl 26 .342 7.2 5.1 6.9 1.8 3.3 .4 .52
2.0 Kos Papanikolaou Hou 23 .374 7.0 6.4 5.3 1.6 3.0 .7 .51
1.9 Aaron Gordon Orl 15 .634 14.1 6.9 1.3 .6 2.2 1.2 .74
1.7 Andrew Wiggins Min 27 .511 13.2 4.9 1.0 1.2 2.8 .6 .38
1.7 Nerlens Noel Phl 28 .412 8.0 7.9 2.0 2.1 3.8 2.1 .46
1.6 K.J. McDaniels Phl 23 .542 12.3 3.7 1.4 1.3 2.8 2.2 .42
1.4 Jusuf Nurkic Den 10 .478 14.1 13.5 1.8 .5 4.9 1.9 1.07
1.1 Dante Exum Uta 19 .521 9.7 3.0 4.1 1.0 1.9 .6 .35
1.1 Bojan Bogdanovic Brk 29 .539 11.7 3.4 1.4 .8 1.5 .1 .22
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
0.9 Shabazz Napier Mia 21 .517 7.8 5.1 3.9 1.5 2.6 .2 .27
0.9 Nikola Mirotic Chi 11 .492 8.8 7.9 2.1 .9 2.0 1.2 .48
0.8 Jordan Clarkson LAL 12 .506 11.5 4.1 1.6 1.8 1.2 .3 .42
0.7 Rodney Hood Uta 15 .369 7.5 8.1 2.1 1.1 .7 .7 .51
0.7 Joe Harris Cle 11 .676 12.9 4.7 3.1 1.0 2.4 .0 .50
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:09 pm
by Crow
Nurkic. When in doubt or not facing great choices, take reliable value, in this case rebounds.
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:10 am
by Mike G
Well, he's only played 67 minutes. Of 27 rookies with at least 60 min., he's 4th in PER (12.2), 20th in ws/48 (.014), 19th in BPM (-3.9).
These discrepancies will surely diminish with larger samples, but it's kind of fascinating at this stage.
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 4:03 am
by Crow
(Data jumbled for me here too. Last column was for this season. Assumed same in other thread.)
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:23 pm
by DSMok1
Here is the current list of players with >75 minutes from Basketball Reference:
http://bkref.com/tiny/qEVy3
Code: Select all
╔═════╦══════════════════════╦══════╦══════╦════╦═════╦═════╦══════╦═══════╦═══════╦══════╦══════╦══════╦════════╦═══════╦═══════╦═══════╦══════╗
║ Rk ║ Player ║ Age ║ Tm ║ G ║ GS ║ MP ║ PER ║ ORtg ║ DRtg ║ OWS ║ DWS ║ WS ║ WS/48 ║ OBPM ║ DBPM ║ BPM ║ VORP ║
╠═════╬══════════════════════╬══════╬══════╬════╬═════╬═════╬══════╬═══════╬═══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬════════╬═══════╬═══════╬═══════╬══════╣
║ 1 ║ Bojan Bogdanovic ║ 25 ║ BRK ║ 10 ║ 10 ║ 305 ║ 11.3 ║ 110 ║ 112 ║ 0.3 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.5 ║ 0.072 ║ 0.9 ║ -1 ║ 0 ║ 1.2 ║
║ 2 ║ Kostas Papanikolaou ║ 24 ║ HOU ║ 11 ║ 1 ║ 257 ║ 7.7 ║ 86 ║ 98 ║ -0.3 ║ 0.5 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.036 ║ -2.6 ║ 3 ║ 0.3 ║ 1.1 ║
║ 3 ║ James Ennis ║ 24 ║ MIA ║ 11 ║ 1 ║ 143 ║ 14.1 ║ 126 ║ 106 ║ 0.3 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.5 ║ 0.152 ║ 0.3 ║ -0.3 ║ 0 ║ 0.5 ║
║ 4 ║ Aaron Gordon ║ 19 ║ ORL ║ 11 ║ 0 ║ 165 ║ 15.3 ║ 110 ║ 104 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.4 ║ 0.127 ║ -1.1 ║ 0.7 ║ -0.4 ║ 0.4 ║
║ 5 ║ Joe Ingles ║ 27 ║ UTA ║ 12 ║ 0 ║ 195 ║ 8.8 ║ 103 ║ 112 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.029 ║ -0.6 ║ -0.2 ║ -0.7 ║ 0.4 ║
║ 6 ║ P.J. Hairston ║ 22 ║ CHO ║ 8 ║ 2 ║ 111 ║ 10.9 ║ 104 ║ 109 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.068 ║ 0.4 ║ -1 ║ -0.6 ║ 0.3 ║
║ 7 ║ Dante Exum ║ 19 ║ UTA ║ 12 ║ 0 ║ 224 ║ 12.2 ║ 110 ║ 114 ║ 0.3 ║ 0 ║ 0.3 ║ 0.064 ║ 0.6 ║ -2.1 ║ -1.5 ║ 0.2 ║
║ 8 ║ Nikola Mirotic ║ 23 ║ CHI ║ 11 ║ 0 ║ 133 ║ 10.2 ║ 100 ║ 100 ║ 0 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.3 ║ 0.099 ║ -2.2 ║ 0.8 ║ -1.4 ║ 0.2 ║
║ 9 ║ Shabazz Napier ║ 23 ║ MIA ║ 11 ║ 0 ║ 227 ║ 8.9 ║ 91 ║ 106 ║ -0.2 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.017 ║ -2.1 ║ 0.5 ║ -1.6 ║ 0.2 ║
║ 10 ║ Marcus Smart ║ 20 ║ BOS ║ 5 ║ 0 ║ 102 ║ 9.1 ║ 92 ║ 111 ║ -0.1 ║ 0 ║ 0 ║ 0.007 ║ -0.2 ║ -0.8 ║ -1.1 ║ 0.2 ║
║ 11 ║ Joe Harris ║ 23 ║ CLE ║ 7 ║ 0 ║ 92 ║ 8.8 ║ 109 ║ 113 ║ 0.1 ║ 0 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.057 ║ 0.2 ║ -1.9 ║ -1.7 ║ 0.1 ║
║ 12 ║ Jordan Clarkson ║ 22 ║ LAL ║ 9 ║ 0 ║ 110 ║ 13.9 ║ 110 ║ 117 ║ 0.1 ║ 0 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.05 ║ 0.2 ║ -2.7 ║ -2.5 ║ -0.1 ║
║ 13 ║ Nik Stauskas ║ 21 ║ SAC ║ 11 ║ 0 ║ 172 ║ 3.7 ║ 95 ║ 112 ║ 0 ║ 0 ║ 0 ║ 0.007 ║ -1.4 ║ -1.3 ║ -2.8 ║ -0.2 ║
║ 14 ║ Rodney Hood ║ 22 ║ UTA ║ 6 ║ 0 ║ 91 ║ 8.2 ║ 88 ║ 109 ║ -0.1 ║ 0.1 ║ 0 ║ 0.014 ║ -2.9 ║ -0.7 ║ -3.6 ║ -0.3 ║
║ 15 ║ K.J. McDaniels ║ 21 ║ PHI ║ 10 ║ 1 ║ 231 ║ 10.7 ║ 92 ║ 107 ║ -0.1 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.012 ║ -3.7 ║ 0.8 ║ -3 ║ -0.5 ║
║ 16 ║ Elfrid Payton ║ 20 ║ ORL ║ 12 ║ 10 ║ 297 ║ 8.2 ║ 84 ║ 104 ║ -0.5 ║ 0.4 ║ -0.1 ║ 0.021 ║ -4.5 ║ 1.5 ║ -2.9 ║ -0.5 ║
║ 17 ║ Damjan Rudez ║ 28 ║ IND ║ 11 ║ 0 ║ 219 ║ 5.4 ║ 101 ║ 108 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.05 ║ -2.4 ║ -0.8 ║ -3.2 ║ -0.5 ║
║ 18 ║ Andrew Wiggins ║ 19 ║ MIN ║ 9 ║ 9 ║ 242 ║ 10 ║ 94 ║ 114 ║ -0.1 ║ 0 ║ -0.1 ║ 0.014 ║ -2.1 ║ -0.8 ║ -3 ║ -0.5 ║
║ 19 ║ Tarik Black ║ 23 ║ HOU ║ 9 ║ 1 ║ 126 ║ 8.1 ║ 100 ║ 101 ║ 0 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.088 ║ -4 ║ -0.8 ║ -4.8 ║ -0.7 ║
║ 20 ║ Doug McDermott ║ 23 ║ CHI ║ 11 ║ 0 ║ 138 ║ 7.6 ║ 92 ║ 107 ║ -0.1 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.1 ║ 0.022 ║ -2.8 ║ -1.8 ║ -4.7 ║ -0.7 ║
║ 21 ║ Kyle Anderson ║ 21 ║ SAS ║ 5 ║ 0 ║ 77 ║ -1.8 ║ 41 ║ 97 ║ -0.3 ║ 0.2 ║ -0.2 ║ 0.115 ║ -10.4 ║ 3.5 ║ -6.9 ║ -0.8 ║
║ 22 ║ Jabari Parker ║ 19 ║ MIL ║ 11 ║ 11 ║ 315 ║ 11.7 ║ 93 ║ 102 ║ -0.2 ║ 0.5 ║ 0.3 ║ 0.051 ║ -3.2 ║ -0.1 ║ -3.3 ║ -0.8 ║
║ 23 ║ Zach LaVine ║ 19 ║ MIN ║ 6 ║ 4 ║ 123 ║ 5.1 ║ 82 ║ 115 ║ -0.2 ║ 0 ║ -0.2 ║ 0.087 ║ -4.1 ║ -1.1 ║ -5.2 ║ -0.9 ║
║ 24 ║ Nerlens Noel ║ 20 ║ PHI ║ 8 ║ 5 ║ 219 ║ 7.6 ║ 72 ║ 103 ║ -0.6 ║ 0.3 ║ -0.3 ║ 0.062 ║ -7.8 ║ 3.2 ║ -4.6 ║ -1.2 ║
║ 25 ║ Travis Wear ║ 24 ║ NYK ║ 9 ║ 0 ║ 85 ║ 1.3 ║ 76 ║ 118 ║ -0.2 ║ 0 ║ -0.3 ║ 0.147 ║ -7.4 ║ -3.4 ║ -10.8 ║ -1.3 ║
║ 26 ║ JaKarr Sampson ║ 21 ║ PHI ║ 9 ║ 2 ║ 101 ║ 1.4 ║ 64 ║ 109 ║ -0.3 ║ 0.1 ║ -0.2 ║ 0.11 ║ -9.3 ║ 0.2 ║ -9 ║ -1.5 ║
╚═════╩══════════════════════╩══════╩══════╩════╩═════╩═════╩══════╩═══════╩═══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩════════╩═══════╩═══════╩═══════╩══════╝
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Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:35 pm
by Mike G
Each metric -- PER, ws/48, and BPM -- has only 1 or 2 rookies above avg. But they aren't the same players.
Note, too: All WS/48 appear to be positive. Travis Wear shows as .147, when in fact he's -.147 on the team page and his player page. I've notified b-r.com of this issue.
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 12:32 pm
by Mike G
With the season at 19%, rookies have surged to a pace of 35 eWins on the year. About 2/3 in the East.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
4.5 Jabari Parker Mil 30 .483 14.6 7.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 .4 .90
3.1 Nikola Mirotic Chi 16 .562 13.6 9.5 2.2 .9 1.7 1.5 1.12
2.6 Elfrid Payton Orl 24 .408 9.5 4.9 6.6 1.9 3.7 .3 .64
2.4 Kos. Papanikolaou Hou 25 .418 8.3 6.3 5.1 1.3 3.2 .8 .56
2.4 Nerlens Noel Phl 30 .463 8.5 7.9 1.7 2.0 2.6 1.5 .54
2.1 Andrew Wiggins Min 30 .474 12.8 5.3 1.2 1.5 3.1 .6 .41
2.1 K.J. McDaniels Phl 23 .561 13.5 3.9 1.2 1.1 2.5 1.7 .52
2.0 Shabazz Napier Mia 23 .598 12.1 4.7 3.8 1.5 3.5 .1 .51
1.4 James Ennis Mia 14 .519 9.0 7.1 2.2 1.2 .5 .8 .61
1.4 Tarik Black Hou 17 .504 9.1 11.6 .6 .6 2.0 .3 .55
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.3 Zach LaVine Min 21 .509 12.4 4.0 4.1 1.1 3.5 .3 .47
1.2 Aaron Gordon Orl 15 .634 14.1 7.1 1.3 .6 2.4 1.3 .77
1.1 Dante Exum Uta 18 .484 8.9 3.3 4.4 .9 1.7 .4 .34
1.0 Jusuf Nurkic Den 9 .438 13.0 13.4 2.3 .9 4.9 2.6 1.19
0.9 Bojan Bogdanovic Brk 30 .531 11.4 3.3 1.1 .6 1.3 .1 .17
0.6 Jordan Clarkson LAL 12 .515 12.3 4.2 1.7 1.7 1.2 .3 .50
0.5 Shay. Whittington Ind 7 .667 16.8 12.1 3.5 2.3 2.5 1.1 1.75
0.5 Rodney Hood Uta 15 .369 7.8 8.2 2.1 1.1 .7 .7 .55
0.5 P.J. Hairston Cha 15 .491 12.2 4.2 1.4 .2 2.0 .8 .31
0.5 Marcus Smart Bos 20 .436 10.0 4.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 .7 .34
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:26 pm
by Crow
Noel still low amongst rookies on ws/48 and VORP. Very low on BPM.
http://bkref.com/tiny/V7i4a BPM Team adjustment probably not helping his rating and maybe the accuracy of the rating. Wait n see what RPM estimates.
On Mike's top 10, only Papanikolaou, Mirotic, Ennis and Napier are rated above -3 on BPM.
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:13 pm
by Mike G
Utilizing this page --
http://bkref.com/tiny/Y7bV2
We see the top individual game performances by rookies this year, according to
Game Score. They range from 9.1 up to 23.4 -- 29 pts, 5 reb, 4 stl, 1 TO by Andrew Wiggins on 11-22; matched by his teammate Zach Levine on 11-28, in his outburst of 28 pts and 5 ast.
These games only rank in the 180s among
all players to date, in GmSc.
Are rookies stepping it up as the year progresses? From the top 100 rookie games by
Minutes and by
GmSc, entries per week in each:
Code: Select all
week of Min>29 GmSc>9
26-Oct 9 8 (short week)
2-Nov 12 12
9-Nov 10 11
16-Nov 14 20
23-Nov 13 16
30-Nov 21 18
7-Dec 21 15
It looks as if rookies' modest uptick in 'big games' is not so much that they're more productive, but that they've just gotten more minutes.
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:24 pm
by Mike G
At .294 of the season, rookies project to 33 eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
4.8 Jabari Parker Mil 30 .520 15.3 7.2 2.0 2.1 1.5 2.5 .2 .95
3.7 Nikola Mirotic Chi 18 .548 13.9 10.1 2.2 4.7 .7 1.8 1.3 1.22
2.4 K.J. McDaniels Phl 25 .500 12.3 5.3 1.3 3.4 1.4 2.6 2.2 .59
2.3 Nerlens Noel Phl 30 .466 8.9 7.6 1.7 3.6 2.0 2.9 1.7 .51
2.2 Andrew Wiggins Min 31 .461 13.2 4.8 1.4 2.8 1.2 2.7 .4 .43
2.2 Elfrid Payton Orl 24 .399 8.8 4.9 6.1 3.2 1.9 3.3 .2 .53
2.1 Kos Papanikolaou Hou 26 .463 9.3 5.9 4.8 3.3 1.2 2.7 .7 .58
1.9 Tarik Black Hou 17 .536 10.0 11.7 .9 5.0 .4 1.9 .2 .72
1.2 Zach LaVine Min 25 .466 11.5 3.7 4.0 3.3 1.0 3.4 .2 .33
1.1 Bojan Bogdanovic Brk 29 .529 11.5 3.8 1.1 1.9 .8 1.5 .2 .22
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.0 Jusuf Nurkic Den 10 .426 12.6 12.8 1.8 9.0 1.3 4.0 2.7 1.21
0.9 James Ennis Mia 14 .513 8.0 6.0 1.8 3.0 1.2 .3 .6 .41
0.8 Aaron Gordon Orl 15 .634 13.8 6.8 1.2 3.0 .6 2.3 1.3 .74
0.7 Cory Jefferson Brk 10 .488 11.4 8.1 1.1 2.9 .3 .6 1.5 .82
0.7 Marcus Smart Bos 16 .472 10.9 4.3 2.8 3.6 1.8 1.4 .5 .53
0.6 Kyle Anderson SAS 13 .390 6.6 6.9 2.9 2.3 .9 .6 .9 .45
0.6 Shabazz Napier Mia 21 .555 9.6 3.9 3.1 2.7 1.4 2.8 .1 .16
0.5 P.J. Hairston Cha 15 .447 10.8 4.3 1.3 3.6 .9 1.2 .7 .31
0.4 Shay Whittington Ind 5 .571 13.9 9.8 1.8 2.6 2.6 1.4 .6 1.29
0.4 Jordan Clarkson LAL 11 .513 12.1 3.7 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.5 .2 .44
Per36 rates are adjusted for mpg, %starter, and other factors. Jusuf Nurkic has raw PF of 10.3/36 min.
Just 14 others have had NBA seasons with >100 minutes and >10 PF/36, since 1952 --
http://bkref.com/tiny/2l1V8
Of these, Nurkic has the best PER (12.4) since 1953; best Reb%, Ast% and Blk%, 2nd best Stl% since '71; and the best BPM (-2.9)
He leads the Nuggets in all Reb%, in FTr (.547), TO% (20.2), FTA/100 and Usg% (26.9). Best DBPM and worst OBPM.
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:03 pm
by Mike G
Last year at this time, rookies were projecting to right around 40 eWins; a late surge put them at 50.
From last year's
rookies thread, I have added a VORP column. It's just the sum of all VORP > 0 for the year. --
Code: Select all
year WS WS/48 PER VORP top rookies
2000 69.1 .076 14.0 Brand, Francis, Szczerbiak, A Miller, Posey, Marion
2001 42.3 .053 11.9 5.2 M Miller, Mo Pete, Miles, Q Rich
2002 75.7 .076 13.2 17.4 P Gasol, Battier, R Jefferson, Parker, Rebraca
2003 59.9 .060 12.3 12.7 Yao, Amar'e, Boozer, C Butler, Nene, Ginobili, Okur
2004 66.4 .065 12.9 14.1 Bosh, Carmelo, LeBron, Haslem, Wade, Hinrich
2005 77.6 .074 12.8 15.4 Dwight, Iguodala, Childress, Krstic, Bonner, Duhon, Okafor
2006 74.7 .074 13.0 15.6 Paul, Bogut, Granger, Villanueva, Head, Frye
2007 62.3 .067 12.6 9.5 Roy, Millsap, Craig Smith, Aldridge
2008 57.7 .065 12.7 10.1 Scola, Moon, Horford, T Young, Noah, Landry
2009 99.0 .080 14.0 19.8 M Gasol, Rudy F, B Lopez, Love, Chalmers, Augustin, Rose, Gordon, Oden
2010 88.4 .078 13.9 16.0 'Reke, Steph, Taj, Matthews, Blair, Harden, Jerebko, Jennings, Thornton
2011 63.4 .067 13.1 14.1 Griffin, Monroe, Fields, Ed Davis, Neal
2012 73.7 .065 13.0 19.4 Kawhi, Faried, I Thomas, Irving, Parsons
2013 73.5 .066 12.6 11.5 A Davis, Lillard, Drummond, Valanciunas
2014 34.0 .047 11.3 7.5 Plumlee, Adams, Hardaway, Olynyk
avg. 67.8 .067 12.9 12.9
This year and last may well be the weakest 2 rookie classes of this Century. At best, 2 of the 3 weakest.
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:04 pm
by Crow
If you are inclined, what is the production in year 3 or 4 of the recent draft years to get there? How many positive by then?
If someone were looking for a bigger project:
Find players with x rating in year 3 or 4 (your choice). Look at metric paths they took to get there and sort into 3-7 clusters. I am assuming not everyone takes the same path but how does it very by position, usage, conference, pick level, playing style, etc.? Retrospectively which guys might have been obtainable by trade and when? Would you bet on trends for a similar type player? Is there market inefficiency to be exploited? Who appears to be doing best and worst at that?
Re: Rookies 2014-15
Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:59 am
by Mike G
It's 39% of the season, we can now just call this "the 2015 season" without confusion, and rookies have collectively slumped. They now project to just 30 eWins for the season.
Jabari Parker has 1.5 eWins, so his 'projection' inflates the total by 2.1 eW.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
4.3 Nikola Mirotic Chi 18 .588 16.1 9.6 2.2 4.2 .8 1.6 1.1 1.42
3.6 Jabari Parker Mil 30 .520 15.2 7.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.4 .2 .96
2.4 Andrew Wiggins Min 31 .469 13.0 4.6 1.4 2.8 1.1 2.4 .6 .46
2.3 Nerlens Noel Phl 30 .438 8.3 8.2 1.7 3.0 2.0 2.8 1.7 .50
2.1 Elfrid Payton Orl 25 .411 8.5 4.7 6.2 3.1 1.8 3.4 .2 .49
2.0 K.J. McDaniels Phl 25 .509 12.2 4.9 1.3 3.6 1.3 2.8 2.2 .49
1.7 Jusuf Nurkic Den 12 .507 14.2 11.6 1.5 8.3 1.7 3.2 2.0 1.30
1.4 Zach LaVine Min 25 .470 10.9 3.5 4.7 3.1 1.2 3.5 .2 .37
1.4 Tarik Black Hou 16 .538 9.3 11.1 .8 4.7 .5 1.7 .2 .64
1.3 Kos Papanikolaou Hou 24 .444 8.3 5.6 4.6 3.2 1.1 2.5 .6 .45
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
0.9 James Ennis Mia 14 .543 9.3 5.9 1.4 2.9 1.1 .5 .5 .44
0.8 Bojan Bogdanovic Brk 23 .514 11.2 3.7 1.0 2.0 .8 1.3 .3 .20
0.6 Marcus Smart Bos 19 .500 9.6 4.3 3.5 3.7 1.8 2.6 .2 .35
0.6 Aaron Gordon Orl 15 .634 13.7 6.7 1.2 2.9 .6 2.2 1.2 .73
0.6 P.J. Hairston Cha 16 .412 10.2 4.9 1.1 3.1 1.1 1.2 .8 .33
0.6 Shabazz Napier Mia 21 .554 9.7 4.2 3.0 2.6 1.5 2.8 .1 .21
0.5 Cory Jefferson Brk 10 .491 11.3 7.2 1.0 3.3 .2 1.1 1.2 .62
0.5 Kyle Anderson SAS 15 .405 6.5 6.7 2.3 2.5 1.1 .9 .6 .31
0.5 Rodney Hood Uta 18 .434 8.9 4.6 2.3 4.3 .7 1.4 .4 .22
0.3 Jordan Clarkson LAL 11 .476 10.6 3.7 1.8 2.6 1.6 1.3 .3 .32