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Team chances for title in next 5 yrs
Posted: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:58 pm
by Crow
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/eve ... e-by-2019/
Any commentary or alternative list, model based or not?
Re: Team chances for title in next 5 yrs
Posted: Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:22 pm
by Crow
Very fast, rough first cut I have the following leaders:
Gsw .75
Lac .6
Por .4
Okc .35
Mem .35
Cle .35
Chi .35
Sas .3
Hou .3
Atl .25
NO .2
Was .15
Tor .15
Phx .15
Bos .1
Mia .1
Lak .1
Mavs .05
This is totally subjective (and pretty independent as I only eyeballed and remembered a few 538 rankings before doing these). Yearly chances in .05 increments, with none given below that.
I have 11 over .2; 538, 10. I have 18 over .05; 538, 25.
The correlation of my top 10 with their estimates for same teams is almost .9. 8 differences of more than .1 but none larger than .2.
I'll probably do a better version later. I am probably not giving enough chance to some young teans but I did add title chances for a handful.
Re: Team chances for title in next 5 yrs
Posted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:03 am
by Crow
In a slight version, I now have 20 with at least a 5% chance of a title in the period. Added Philly and Milwaukee.
I am almost surely underselling the true top 5 but on early pass I didn't have a lot of confidence in where to put some teams between top 5 and next 5.