APBRmetrics

Posted: **Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:16 pm**

Converting PER and BPM to pseudo-wins, top players by average in 4 stats.

wins     west           Min   e484    PER   WS/48  BPM
9.43 * James Harden    1524   2.49   27.2   .281   8.6
8.47 * Stephen Curry   1284   2.64   27.9   .295   9.8
8.03 * Anthony Davis   1329   2.42   31.5   .286   5.9
7.54 * Chris Paul      1453   2.06   24.5   .246   6.3
7.34   Damian Lillard  1519   1.91   22.5   .218   6.4

6.19 * Blake Griffin   1497   2.06   22.7   .174   3.1
6.02 * Marc Gasol      1424   1.88   22.5   .181   4.1
5.41   DeAndre Jordan  1414   1.37   19.8   .207   3.7
5.40 *Russell Westbrook 847   2.67   28.6   .212  10.6
5.29   Tyson Chandler  1237   1.47   21.4   .238   4.4

wins     west           Min   e484    PER   WS/48  BPM
5.02 * Tim Duncan      1169   1.96   22.0   .182   4.4
5.00 * Klay Thompson   1229   1.84   21.4   .192   3.4
4.97   Mike Conley     1279   1.65   21.0   .172   3.7
4.93 * LaMarc Aldridge 1362   2.04   22.4   .170    .4
4.63  DeMarcus Cousins  974   2.49   25.8   .166   4.3

4.59   Eric Bledsoe    1440   1.39   18.9   .135   2.5
4.50   Gordon Hayward  1440   1.38   19.3   .130   2.1
4.47   Rudy Gay        1355   1.50   19.8   .131   2.5
4.41   Wesley Matthews 1419   1.09   15.9   .154   3.7
4.35   Ty Lawson       1521   1.30   18.7   .129   1.1
 

wins     east           Min   e484    PER   WS/48  BPM
6.42 * Kyle Lowry      1421   1.89   22.2   .188   5.7
6.38 * Jimmy Butler    1590   1.43   21.2   .207   4.0
5.96 * LeBron James    1242   2.10   25.2   .174   5.8
5.52 * John Wall       1483   1.71   20.6   .148   3.5
5.20 * Paul Millsap    1369   1.70   19.6   .167   3.8

5.13 * Pau Gasol       1394   1.88   22.1   .166   1.5
5.09 * Jeff Teague     1195   1.87   22.6   .212   3.3
4.95   Kemba Walker    1436   1.46   19.4   .137   3.5
4.67 * Kyrie Irving    1492   1.36   19.6   .140   1.8
4.65 * Al Horford      1218   1.74   20.7   .181   2.9

wins     east           Min   e484    PER   WS/48  BPM
4.50   Kyle Korver     1353   1.09   16.2   .178   4.1
4.46   Kevin Love      1422   1.56   19.0   .149   1.2
4.31   Brandon Knight  1328   1.55   18.7   .129   2.6
4.24   Nikola Vucevic  1305   1.75   21.4   .136    .6

3.78 * Dwyane Wade     1006   1.93   23.6   .115   2.7
3.69   Greg Monroe     1184   1.59   20.1   .139    .8
3.68 * Chris Bosh      1171   1.76   21.5   .129    .1
3.56 * Carmelo Anthony 1148   1.70   21.6   .099    .9
3.54  Brandon Jennings 1114   1.47   19.3   .136   2.0

EDIT -- * indicates allstar selection as of 1-29

These stats are a couple days old, sorry.
In his last 64 minutes, Klay Thompson has PER of 49.7, WS/48 = .596, BPM = 17.6

Posted: **Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:12 pm**

Previous post has been edited with some * to show who's been picked.
Kobe and Durant are also named for the West. Kobe won't play, and Durant is , well, Durant.

No glaring snubs for the East. Kemba has the 7th best BPM, but he's out. Kyrie has been hot since this table was made.
Both WS and BPM say Lillard is the Star for Portland. He leads them in Min, Pts, Ast, Stl.
Too many top PG and C in the West.

Bosh and Vucevic have extreme similarity up there. But in a week, Nik has pulled away:
http://bkref.com/tiny/acieZ

Posted: **Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:58 am**

What conversion formulas do you use to turn per and bpm into wins?

Does Lilliard have a better or worse case than last year?

Posted: **Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:26 pm**

Hmm, I think it was
(PER-8)*Min/3050
(BPM+3)*Min/1950
These made player PERWins and BPMWins add up to league wins.

Lillard is greatly improved by all 4 metrics, as seen in the Improved thread. Currently #7 in WS and BPM, #4 in VORP.

Posted: **Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:26 pm**

Crow wrote:What conversion formulas do you use to turn per and bpm into wins?

Does Lilliard have a better or worse case than last year?

BPM's conversion is in the tooltip of VORP: use VORP and then multiply by 2.7, and then multiply by Games/82 if you want to prorate it properly. It won't add up to league wins, and shouldn't. (Replacement level team gets between 10 and 15 wins by my estimates).

Posted: **Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:26 pm**

Right. Wins don't just happen.
WARP is wins above some arbitrary level, and I was looking to put everything on the same (wins above zero) level.

Commish replaces Kobe with DeMarcus Cousins. With M Gasol, A Davis, and Duncan, the West is pretty big up front.

Lillard carries a VORP of 5.7. Just 12 players have hit this level and missed the allstar game.
He's on pace for 12 Win Shares in 82 games. Only 11 have done that without being named to ASG

Relative to median all-NBA selections in the last 20 years, he looks pretty good:

Code: Select all

'95-14 median  PER    WS   WS/48   BPM   VORP
all-NBA 1st   25.3   13.0   .224   5.5   5.5
all-NBA 2nd   22.9   10.8   .187   4.3   4.4
all-NBA 3rd   21.7    9.8   .176   3.7   3.7
Lillard '15   21.4   12.0*  .194   5.6   5.7*

http://bkref.com/tiny/jCIkU
I'll go out on a limb and say he at least makes 3rd team.

APBRmetrics

2015 All Stars

2015 All Stars

Re: 2015 All Stars

Re: 2015 All Stars

Re: 2015 All Stars

Re: 2015 All Stars

Re: 2015 All Stars