APBRmetrics

*Age-Factor included
*Regular Season/Post Season stats included
*minimum of 800 games (Reg/PS)
*All Player stats adjusted for League Quality (LQ)
*Est. for players pre-1978 based on REBS/AST/FT%/FG%/PositionAVGs
*All players careers translated to begin in 1990 (basis) (pace-adjusted)
*Usage Rate, and MVP shares (eye test) factored in
*Player Value = a combination of Alternate Win Score, VORP, and a calculated Defensive Rating (DWS, Drtg, Defensive Teams, etc.)

Nice list!
Are playoff games (or minutes) weighted more than RS games?
If you didn't require 800 games to qualify, would the list be any different? Actually, I see Durant (with 563 RS + 73 PO games) ranks #22. What's up with that?
How do you determine League Quality?
Sorry if these questions have been answered earlier, but you started a separate thread.

The major difference in this list and the previous ones is that I factored the "usage rates" into the formula. Also, I used MVP shares to serve as sort of an "eye test" if you will.

I lowered the minimums as well to 600 games, Durant, Paul now rank (however penalized by the age factor)

Here's are article that served as my basis for LQ adjustments, I tweaked it some

http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/201 ... n-the-nba/

I estimated pre-1978 once I adjusted all the player stats
I made a further adjustment to translate all careers into 1990-on, I felt that the 90s was a fairly balanced time period to perform the comparisons.

Also, this is a linear weight breakdown of Alternate Win Score and is effectiveness.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/art ... cleid=1985

I found it to undervalue Big Men compared to VORP(value over replacement player), so I merged them with Defensive ratings.. I can further explain when I get some time

any chance you can re-post the list, expand it to 100 players, and show how the Player Value is broken down into Alternate Win Score, VORP, and the calculated Defensive Rating?...

i'd like to see how your overall Defensive Rating for players like isaiah thomas, alex english, and carmelo anthony compares to that of players like maurice cheeks, larry nance, and bobby jones...

bchaikin wrote:any chance you can re-post the list, expand it to 100 players, and show how the Player Value is broken down into Alternate Win Score, VORP, and the calculated Defensive Rating?...

You read my mind..

I was working on a top-100 list. But with my work schedule and the fact that I have to adjust every individual box stat for each player, then factor the LQ, it'll take some time. I'm thinking a few months.

But let me give you an example of how the formula works.

I just finished Walter Davis

Career PPG = 16.97
Age Factor = 1.336
Adj. Usage% = 26.60
Adj AWS = 14.88
Adj VORP = .521
My Defensive Rtg = 99 (100=average)
D*VORP = the Defensive Rtg adjusted VORP (adj VORP+(My Drtg*.1))*12.488 <--figure to balance D*Vorp w AWS)
MVP Shares = .030

Where Player Value = (1+MVP Shares/100)*(((AWS+D*VORP/2)+AgeFact)*(1+Usg%/100))

Walter Davis' Player Value = 23.07, same as Mitch Richmond.

bchaikin wrote:
i'd like to see how your overall Defensive Rating for players like isaiah thomas, alex english, and carmelo anthony compares to that of players like maurice cheeks, larry nance, and bobby jones...

My defensive ratings for the quoted players (higher the better, 100=average)

Isiah Thomas = 102
Alex English = 90
Carmelo Anthony = 93
Maurice Cheeks = 105
Larry Nance = 95
Bobby Jones = 113

both bobby jones and maurice cheeks were excellent defenders from the late 70s to the mid-80s, quite possibly each the best defender at their respective positions during that time. larry nance was a very good to excellent defender most of his career, had - by far - the most blocked shots of all non-Cs for over a decade (early 80s to early 90s)...

your defensive rating has nance worse than average, not much better than anthony or english, and cheeks not much better than thomas...

accounting for player defense i would rate cheeks, nance, and jones above thomas, english, and anthony in any greatest players listing...

bchaikin wrote:both bobby jones and maurice cheeks were excellent defenders from the late 70s to the mid-80s, quite possibly each the best defender at their respective positions during that time. larry nance was a very good to excellent defender most of his career, had - by far - the most blocked shots of all non-Cs for over a decade (early 80s to early 90s)...

your defensive rating has nance worse than average, not much better than anthony or english, and cheeks not much better than thomas...

accounting for player defense i would rate cheeks, nance, and jones above thomas, english, and anthony in any greatest players listing...

Honestly, as far as Nance and Anthony, I did give you the rating off of the wrong list. Anthony's adjusted defensive ratings are the same, but Nance's should = 98.

My results are based off DWS, BB-ref Drtg, Defensive awards + articles from experts and writers that observed him. Anyway from that combo I don't see how you can label Larry Nance an excellent defender? I have him in the career category with Shawn Kemp (98), Jermaine O'Neal (99). There is more to defense than being a shot-blocker. I think Pau Gasol is 35th all-time BPG, yet he's a below average defender by most any standard.

Another important point is that out of all the NBA/ABA players that have ever played a minute in the leagues, I've rated a grand total of around 150 of the best "overall" players. Larry Nances defensive rating is analyzed in comparison to the defensive average of the 150 or so players that I've rated. In other words, he's slightly below average in comparison to the players listed. As more players are listed, his defensive average may be adjusted.

My results are based off DWS, BB-ref Drtg,

both of these apportion defensive credit outside of steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding equally to players on the same team according to team rank and minutes played - correct? so if two players play similar minutes they get equal defensive credit, correct?...

Defensive awards

nance was all-D 1st team once, all-D 2nd team twice, from the ages of 29-32...

+ articles from experts and writers that observed him

pretty much everything i have in print from the 80s and 90s all say he was a very good to excellent defender. for example, jordan cohn's pro basketball scouting report (later called the basketball bible) rates him as an A to AAA defender each year (late 80s, early 90s)...

what are you reading?...

plus i've had the privilege of watching him play, both in person and on tv/video. there's no question in my mind he was a very good to excellent defender...

There is more to defense than being a shot-blocker.

here's a list of the all-time shot blockers:

3830 - hakeem olajuwon
3289 - dikembe mutombo
3189 - kareem abdul-jabbar
3064 - marke aton
2954 - david robinson
2894 - patrick ewing
2864 - tim duncan
2732 - shaquille o'neal
2542 - tree rollins
2361 - robert parish
2356 - alonzo mourning
2331 - marcus camby
2136 - ben wallace
2119 - shawn bradley
2086 - manute bol
2082 - george t. johnson
2026 - larry nance
2016 - kevin garnett
1969 - theo ratliff
1820 - jermaine o'neal
1804 - elton brand
1771 - elvin hayes
1748 - artis gilmore
1733 - moses malone
1701 - dwight howard

if what you say is true, then which of these players would you say that during their careers were not considered very good to excellent defenders?...

bchaikin wrote: if what you say is true, then which of these players would you say that during their careers were not considered very good to excellent defenders?...

It doesn't necessarily follow. For example, there may be great defenders who do not record a ton of shot blocks. Marc Gasol comes to mind as one. He's not an "all-time great shot blocker". But he's clearly a great defender.

And there are others like JaVale McGee that are not great defenders but record a ton of shot blocks.

This is not to say that it's a good rule of thumb that a "rim protector" is typically a good or great shot blocker and a great defender. But I think it's also fair to say there is more to it than "just shot blocking". Right?

It doesn't necessarily follow.

how about just answering the question? of those all-time great shot blocking players - which were not very good to excellent defenders?...

forget those that blocked many more than nance - how about just those that were +/- some 300 of nance (1700 to 2300-2400)?...

For example, there may be great defenders who do not record a ton of shot blocks.

who is saying there aren't? how does his relate to larry nance? we are talking about larry nance here...

over an 11 year period (8283-9293) nance averaged 200 blocks per 3000 minutes played. how many players have done this that weren't very good to excellent defenders?...

This is not to say that it's a good rule of thumb that a "rim protector" is typically a good or great shot blocker and a great defender. But I think it's also fair to say there is more to it than "just shot blocking". Right?

nice soliloquy - but who here has said their isn't more to defense than being a shot blocker?...

we are talking about larry nance here - and this was said:

I don't see how you can label Larry Nance an excellent defender?

Anthony's adjusted defensive ratings are the same, but Nance's should = 98.

if this 98 means that this individual has nance ranked as a worse than average defender (with 100 being average), then it's blatantly obvious that this individual:

- has not seen nance play...
- has not read what the "experts/writers" said about him during the time he played...

so here's what it'd like to know - how much has this person actually seen larry nance play, and what has he read that says larry nance was just an average to worse than average defender?...

bchaikin wrote: nice soliloquy - but who here has said their isn't more to defense than being a shot blocker?...

You quoted the previous poster as saying:

There is more to defense than being a shot-blocker.

I assumed you were taking issue with this statement when you proceeded to give a list of all-time shot-blockers and asked which one of them were not great defenders.

if what you say is true, then which of these players would you say that during their careers were not considered very good to excellent defenders?...

I apologize if my inference was incorrect.

bchaikin wrote:My results are based off DWS, BB-ref Drtg,

both of these apportion defensive credit outside of steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding equally to players on the same team according to team rank and minutes played - correct? so if two players play similar minutes they get equal defensive credit, correct?...

Defensive awards

nance was all-D 1st team once, all-D 2nd team twice, from the ages of 29-32...

+ articles from experts and writers that observed him

pretty much everything i have in print from the 80s and 90s all say he was a very good to excellent defender. for example, jordan cohn's pro basketball scouting report (later called the basketball bible) rates him as an A to AAA defender each year (late 80s, early 90s)...

what are you reading?...

plus i've had the privilege of watching him play, both in person and on tv/video. there's no question in my mind he was a very good to excellent defender...

There is more to defense than being a shot-blocker.

here's a list of the all-time shot blockers:

3830 - hakeem olajuwon
3289 - dikembe mutombo
3189 - kareem abdul-jabbar
3064 - marke aton
2954 - david robinson
2894 - patrick ewing
2864 - tim duncan
2732 - shaquille o'neal
2542 - tree rollins
2361 - robert parish
2356 - alonzo mourning
2331 - marcus camby
2136 - ben wallace
2119 - shawn bradley
2086 - manute bol
2082 - george t. johnson
2026 - larry nance
2016 - kevin garnett
1969 - theo ratliff
1820 - jermaine o'neal
1804 - elton brand
1771 - elvin hayes
1748 - artis gilmore
1733 - moses malone
1701 - dwight howard

if what you say is true, then which of these players would you say that during their careers were not considered very good to excellent defenders?...

Well "if" your premise is to rank all defenders based on one to two individual box stats like steals or blocks, I think you'll overlook great on-ball defenders like Bruce Bowen, Sidney Moncrief while inflating players such as Allen Iverson, Shawn Bradley. As far as you list as well, Shawn Bradley and Minute Bol stand out as examples of excellent shot-blockers that weren't excellent overall defenders. Dennis Rodman is another example counters the isolation of individual box stats in determining a players overall quality of defense. Rodman per 100 poss, avg 1.1 STL, 1 BLK - hardly impressive, yet relative to his position he's perhaps one of the greatest defenders of all-time.

In my defensive ranking Nance is tied with Kemp, and 1 point below Jermaine O'Neal.

And I want to reiterate that once I add lower quality players to the list of 150 I'm certain Kemp, Nance will rise above the average grade of 100. But to claim Nance as an elite defender simply off of BPG seems a bit incomplete.

Well "if" your premise is to rank all defenders based on one to two individual box stats like steals or blocks

whose premise is this?...

while inflating players such as Allen Iverson, Shawn Bradley. As far as you list as well, Shawn Bradley and Minute Bol stand out as examples of excellent shot-blockers that weren't excellent overall defenders.

you say this about shawn bradley based on what?...

shawn bradley was a very good to excellent defender most of his career...

aside from having watched him, here's just one 3rd party claim to bradley's excellent defense - here's what jordan cohn had to say about him in his books:

94-95 - with bradley in the lineup, sixers opponents shot 46% scored 97 pts/g, went 20-29, without him opp FG% jumped to 51%, pts/g against 111, team went 5-28... he rates bradley's defense as AA...

95-96 - when bradley played 30+ min/g, sixers opponents shot 43%, philly went 17-26, in less than 30 min/g, opponents shot 51%, sixers went 7-33... he rates bradley's defense AAA...

96-97 - he doesn't list any on/off numbers, but rates his defense AAA, the highest he can rate a player in his system (D suspect, C mediocre, B middle of the pack, A first rate, AA big time, AAA top of the line)...

so that's 3 straight years he's got shawn bradley rated as a big time to top of the line defender, and this is early in bradley's career (ages 22-24). if that's not excellent defense i don't know what is...

so my question for you is just what is your statement that bradley was not an excellent overall defender based on?...

But to claim Nance as an elite defender simply off of BPG seems a bit incomplete.

and just who has made this claim? perhaps you should re-read this thread - blocked shots is just part of it, along with watching a player and reading everything about a player you can...

greatest all-time lists are fun to debate - but to "claim" one player is better than another without taking in to full consideration a player's contribution on the defensive side of the floor (aside from ratings that apportion equal defensive contribution towards team defensive rank based solely on minutes played) will skew your list towards offensive minded players...

Nance played from 1982 to 1994, totaling over 30,000 minutes. He had ORtg = 116 and DRtg = 104 -- a ratio of 1.115
In that interval, just 13 players had as good an ORtg/DRtg for even half as many minutes.
http://bkref.com/tiny/x7OSm

Of the 13, Nance ranks 10th in WS/48, 9th in PER, and 8th in BPM -- behind Jordan, Barkley, Robinson, Bird, Magic, Olajuwon, Moncrief; ahead of Horace Grant, Rodman, Stockton, McHale, and Laimbeer.

He's also 3rd in Blk%, 4th lowest TO%, 8th in TReb% and Ast%, 10th in Stl%. It's pretty elite company.
His OBPM ranks 9th, and his DBPM ranks 4th -- after Robinson, Olajuwon, and Rodman.