APBRmetrics

First of all this is my first post on this message board, but I've been a reader on and off for a pretty long time. I've really enjoyed these boards and I open with a question I've never seen addressed.

After seeing Greg Popovich win his 1000th game, on a night the Spurs entered the 4th quarter trailing by 14 this question came up. Pop is pretty notorious for putting in his bench and essentially not riding his stars in an effort to win games once the score has turned unfavorable. I believe it was something like the last time the spurs came back from a deficit of 14 or more entering the 4th quarter was something like 2010. This lead me to wonder. Are there certain characteristics of teams, coaches, or players where the variance in the point differential in a game is higher or lower? Would a great offensive lead team say the Lakers with Kobe have more variance than say a defensive lead player like Duncan with the spurs? Are there coaches who tend to see this over their careers at higher rates? Has anyone ever looked into such a metric?

Thank you for read and please let me know what you think.

Hey. Welcome.

I think I saw something earlier this season about % of total time teams led / trailed by certain amounts but can't recall where. ESPN stats & info, vantage, number fire, a gambling site... I dunno. Anyone else see it and have a better memory? If someone has query capacity on this it would be interesting to get some multi-season specs on teams / coaches. Regular season and playoffs. This data coupled with overall Pythagorean expected wins could indeed help deepen the detail on team game styles. The latter alone is not sufficient.

There is some share ground in what you are talking about and what is being talked about in the situational change thread.

I think that thread somewhat takes on the response to my question or perhaps a cause effect? A team that often drops down with a player who responds by playing differently. it doesn't look at if the coaching staff or play talents create the situations.

A very good follow up to the idea, and a great thread without a doubt.