APBRmetrics

I recently had a conversation with a friend where he suggested that if he were a gm, he would target Danny Green intensely this offseason. His reasons were that similar to Harden on OKC, he has an incredibly high BPM/RAPM and a low usage rate and thought as a result, he would excel in a new environment. While I think Danny Green is great and underrated, his low FTR (and otherwise an inability to create his own shot at a top tier level) suggests that he would not improve merely by being on a new team.

Out of interest, I then decided to look up how Jimmy Butler's current season compares to Harden's last OKC season and was pretty surprised to see how similar the stats were. Harden was younger and played behind two elite players (so was less of a priority on offense) while Butler plays far better D, but I believe there is reason to believe that if given a greater roll, Jimmy Butler can reach even greater heights.

Further conversation with friends brought out names like shabazz muhammad, rudy gobert, Nikola Mirotić and jusuf nurkic.

So I'm wondering, who would you target if you were a GM?
(not necessarily based on if they can become an MVP candidate, but merely if you think that they could perform significantly better than they are currently valued)

I doubt there is a bench player anywhere with Harden's potential. In 2012, he was averaging 31-6-5, 69 TS% per 36 when Durant was off the floor. His numbers were off the charts as the man. But he was averaging like 14 points per 36 when Durant was on the floor so most people didn't see his potential.

If you were trying to win a title next year, I'd offer pretty big for Whiteside, not that it is likely to work. Estimated with 14th best impact on RPM. Mozgov is doing pretty well quietly. Worth his trade price probably, worth twice his salary? Motiejunas has done well, could put up bigger numbers in different situation. Middleton is a good player / value. Probably not pry-able, but if you are going to spend time pursuing / plotting for RFA he is a good target for dreamers or go getters willing to overpay or appear that way. 6th best in league on RPM estimate! Amir Johnson has been traditionally undervalued compared to his RPM but maybe not as badly this year. Still worth more free agency attention than he has gotten previously. Is Milsap going to get at least 80% of max? Even at 30 years, he is far more deserving than many in the eight digit salary tier. I don't know how Mitch McGary is currently valued by GMs but it seems more likely to rise and rise far than stay unimportant. Ed Davis is potentially worth multiples of his current valuation. But is no sure thing and I haven't studied him closely.

Some players who by PAA are generally undervalued:
Ty Lawson, probably too old to be considered the next Harden though.
Klay Thompson, I think people are starting to appreciate him more now
DeAndre Jordan, besides the fact he can't shoot free throws
Rudy Golbert, some one already said him
Draymond Green, Nikola Vucevic, Gordon Hayward are others

By PAA per minute, Meyers Leonard, Hassan Whiteside, Alexis Ajinca and Dwigth Powell show up.

https://web.archive.org/web/20110206001 ... #comments

Scott Sereday now of the Nets did a pretty good study on skill curves that I think is relevant to this discussion.

Instead of just looking at usage and efficiency, he took Eli's study and added assisted close shots, unassisted close shots, assisted 2-point jump shots, unassisted jumpers, assisted 3-point jump shots and assists as variables.

This gives a better understanding of what players are likely to continue their excellent offensive efficiency when given a greater opportunity to shine.

I wish I had the time to run this with more numbers because firstly, I'd love to see Harden's skill curve during his last year in OKC, and I would love to see which players in the 2015 NBA season have the most room to blossom.

Here's a list of young guys that aren't "superstars" but are rated high in 15y age adjusted RAPM (which loved Harden back in the day), with their rank, out of 1500 players. (I realize some of these are getting more attention recently, but I still wouldn't call them superstars)

J.E. wrote:Here's a list of young guys that aren't "superstars" but are rated high in 15y age adjusted RAPM (which loved Harden back in the day), with their rank, out of 1500 players. (I realize some of these are getting more attention recently, but I still wouldn't call them superstars)

Code: Select all

Rubio, 22nd
Draymond Green, 32nd
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, 37th
Klay Thompson, 50th
The Alphabet, 77th
Middleton, 82nd
Bradley Beal, 105th
Jrue Holiday, 112th
Avery Bradley, 116th
Jared Sullinger, 121st

Your 02-11 10 year RAPM had Harden 19th despite not even including his 2012 breakout season (I'm not sure if you age adjusted that study or not):

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/10-year-rapm

Here are some guys with no all-star appearances at the time that it loved. These are all guys with a +1 or better ranking.
LaMarcus Aldridge, 14th
Ty Lawson, 42nd
Jared Dudley, 48th
Kyle Lowry, 51st
Paul Millsap, 55th
Chase Budinger, 72nd
Ersan Ilyasova, 77th
Jon Brockman, 79th
Brandon Jennings, 95th
Stephen Curry, 96th
Anthony Morrow, 97th
Nicolas Batum, 109th

For the most part it did a good job of predicting the stars. It hit well on Aldridge, Cury, and Lowry. But it did miss on Brockman and Budinger. Overall it was solid.

Here are some guys who are good now in 2015 that played in 2011. This is where they were ranked in 2011 (out of 1249 players):
Marc Gasol, 152nd
Serge Ibaka, 398th
Danny Green, 546th
Patrick Patterson, 642nd
Goran Dragic, 644th
Jeff Teague, 676th
DeMarcus Cousins, 759th
Eric Bledsoe, 826th
DeAndre Jordan, 832nd

For some of those guys, you could see the potential at the time (Cousins and Gasol), but I don't think anyone had Bledsoe and Jordan developing like they did. Neither did anyone have Dragic becoming an all-star caliber player.

There is no Harden but my answer for this question would be Khris Middleton who is possibly the Bucks best player this year and young enough to make a major improvement, plus he is a RFA this year so he's more available than most. The jump Butler made is possible for him

2nd for Middleton. He seems to have enough all around skill to make a jump, more than Danny Green offensively. I don't think there is anyone on Hardens level on the bench, and there shouldn't be. Maybe look at Shabazz Muhammad, as he's probably behind Wiggins in future planning, though has been shockingly effective in his 2nd year.

If I was a team, I'd look at effectiveness by play type (PnR, spot up, ISO etc.) where the player has a mix of skills that are inefficient in their current role/mix of usage, but would be better if the type of plays changed towards the typical mix of plays that teams(Hypothetical new Rockets) players at that position play.

I liked Middleton last year more than Barnes. Glad people are noticing him now.

Unsurprisingly, I don't think the next James Harden has received quality minutes in the NBA yet, if any at all. That being said, Shabazz Muhammad is a guy who is similar in the sense that he may have great value by the time his rookie contract expires, despite a lack of "great" numbers on the surface. This year, unfortunately cut short, he put up good numbers, and those numbers became even better when you looked at him when he's on the floor without Wiggins, making him their primary option from the wing. He has spent 442 minutes on the floor w/ Wiggins, and 424 minutes on the floor w/out Wiggins. When Wiggins is off the floor, his scoring per 100 possessions increases from 26.5 to 31, while his TS% jumps from 50.1% to 60.4%. When Wiggins is on the floor he spends a lot of time sitting behind the arc, as 41.9% of his total shot attempts are from behind the line. This number drops to 9.1% when Wiggins is off the court, and Shabazz becomes not only more aggressive at attacking the basket, but more efficient in doing so. He's only 22, and the strides he made from year 1 to year 2 are promising to say the least.

Greg: Great first post!

Here's a list of top players by BPM who weren't starting, had played significant minutes, less than 24 years old, and very good to elite by BPM (> 3.0):

http://bkref.com/tiny/BK9p4

There are only 11 in the last 30 years, and Harden stands out among them as unique among them. There is one player on the list from this season: Rudy Gobert. Interesting.

A second list: ball-dominant guards, good at offense, less than age 26, who weren't starting:

http://bkref.com/tiny/joeG1

Again Harden stands out among the 8 players who fit the criteria.

There is another candidate from this season on that list that is interesting: Isaiah Thomas.

There just aren't many players of his type that weren't starters.

Here are similar players, removing the criteria that the player must be starting:
http://bkref.com/tiny/gGkPj

Pretty much all Hall of Famers. Interestingly, Westbrook is just above Harden on that list, from the season before.

I think I got a better list on my first try. Age 25 or less, Bench player, usg% >20%, 1000+ MP, BPM over 2.5.
http://tinyurl.com/lxvkhuv


If we had the data that we have now, T-Mac would have been loved by stat geeks. This list gets quite a few future breakout stars like Kemp, T-Mac, Redd, Anderson, Harden, and Bledsoe. And gets few solid contributors like Fox, Miller, Barbosa, and Robinson. It will be interesting to see where Patty Mills goes from here. He has a -1.2 BPM this year.

if I get some time down the road, I'm going to look at the change in BPM for players on new teams and see if I can find anything interesting.

some questions:
- should I look at BPM or just OBPM?
- Should I do it by positions 1-2-3-4-5, or group players by role?
- is comparing the year before and after enough, or should I look at the preceding and following two years?