APBRmetrics

Highest fgas per game in 21 years, a fourth straight increase. FTAs declined and are 3rd lowest ever. 3pt attempts up again but smallest increase in 3 years. 3pt Fg% was last worse than this season's 16 years ago. 3pt defense may be catching up. Overall offensive efficiency down at this point. Offensive rebounding % setting another all-time low. Pace unchanged after 2 previous years of increase. http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... stats.html

Overall offensive efficiency ended up 2nd worst in 11 years.

as teams have taken more 3s over the years, fewer FTs have been attempted because fewer fouls have been committed (per team possession)...

so despite all the 3s overall shooting or ScFG% (2s, 3s, and FTs) this season (52.6%) is pretty much the same as it was in 05-06 (52.6%), 96-97 (52.7%), 90-91 (52.6%), and 80-81 (52.5%)...

---------------------------------------------pts/-----poss------------3ptFGA-----FTA-------PF----------------FGA
year---eFG%--ScFG%--2FG%--3FG%--100poss--/48min--pts/g--100poss--100poss--100poss--year---100poss
7980---.486---.523---.488---.280-----104.1----104.2---109.3-----2.6------26.5------23.2---7980-----83.6
8081---.489---.525---.491---.245-----104.3----103.1---108.1-----2.0------27.9------24.2---8081-----85.3
8182---.495---.530---.497---.262-----105.8----101.9---108.6-----2.2------27.8------25.5---8182-----86.0
8283---.488---.523---.492---.238-----103.7----104.1---108.5-----2.2------27.0------24.5---8283-----85.7
8384---.495---.533---.499---.250-----106.3----102.7---110.1-----2.3------28.7------24.9---8384-----85.3
8485---.496---.534---.499---.282-----106.6----103.4---110.8-----3.0------28.2------24.0---8485-----85.7
8586---.493---.531---.495---.282-----105.9----103.4---110.2-----3.2------29.1------24.2---8586-----85.1
8687---.488---.528---.490---.301-----106.7----102.3---109.9-----4.6------29.6------23.8---8687-----86.2
8788---.489---.529---.490---.316-----106.5----101.0---108.2-----4.9------28.7------23.7---8788-----86.4
8889---.489---.528---.490---.323-----106.2----102.1---109.2-----6.4------28.0------23.0---8889-----86.5
8990---.489---.528---.488---.331-----106.5-----99.8---107.0-----6.6------28.4------23.2---8990-----86.8
9091---.487---.526---.488---.320-----106.3-----99.3---106.3-----7.1------27.9------23.2---9091-----87.2
9192---.487---.523---.486---.331-----106.7-----98.0---105.3-----7.7------27.0------22.5---9192-----88.5
9293---.491---.527---.489---.336-----106.6-----98.1---105.3-----9.1------28.1------23.4---9293-----87.0
9394---.485---.519---.483---.333-----104.9-----96.3---101.5----10.2------27.5------22.9---9394-----87.3
9495---.500---.534---.491---.359-----106.9-----94.2---101.4----16.1------28.5------24.7---9495-----85.9
9596---.499---.533---.486---.367-----106.3-----93.0----99.5----17.1------28.2------24.6---9596-----85.7
9697---.493---.527---.480---.360-----105.3-----91.3----96.9----18.3------27.5------24.0---9697-----86.2
9798---.478---.515---.470---.346-----103.6-----91.5----95.6----13.8------28.5------24.3---9798-----86.4
9899---.466---.503---.457---.339-----100.9-----90.1----91.6----14.5------28.4------24.5---9899-----86.2
9900---.478---.514---.468---.353-----103.0-----94.1----97.5----14.5------26.7------24.6---9900-----86.7
0001---.473---.510---.461---.354-----102.0-----92.2----94.8----14.7------26.7------24.0---0001-----86.7
0102---.477---.512---.465---.354-----103.4-----91.7----95.5----16.0------25.8------23.0---0102-----88.0
0203---.474---.511---.463---.349-----102.5-----92.0----95.1----15.8------26.3------23.4---0203-----87.1
0304---.471---.508---.460---.347-----101.8-----91.1----93.4----16.3------26.4------23.4---0304-----87.0
0405---.482---.521---.470---.356-----104.7-----92.1----97.2----17.0------28.1------24.4---0405-----86.5
0506---.490---.526---.478---.358-----105.0-----91.6----97.0----17.3------28.5------24.6---0506-----85.5
0607---.496---.532---.485---.358-----105.4-----92.9----98.7----18.1------27.8------23.7---0607-----85.0
0708---.497---.532---.484---.362-----106.4-----93.3----99.9----19.3------26.6------22.4---0708-----86.8
0809---.500---.536---.485---.367-----107.1-----92.6---100.0----19.4------26.5------22.6---0809-----86.7
0910---.501---.534---.492---.355-----106.6-----93.6---100.4----19.3------26.0------22.1---0910-----86.7
1011---.498---.533---.487---.358-----106.2-----93.0----99.6----19.2------26.0------22.1---1011-----86.6
1112---.487---.519---.477---.349-----103.7-----92.1----96.3----19.8------24.2------21.1---1112-----87.7
1213---.496---.527---.483---.359-----105.0-----92.7----98.1----21.4------23.7------21.2---1213-----87.8
1314---.501---.533---.488---.360-----105.8-----94.7---101.0----22.6------24.7------21.7---1314-----86.9
1415---.496---.526---.485---.350-----104.9-----94.6---100.0----23.5------24.0------21.2---1415-----87.6

Might be worth looking at stat trends for 5-10 teams with best records. League average is an obvious reference but what the top 5-10 are doing matters more than the bottom 20-25.

2015 top 10 team averages vs top 10 in 2010, 2005 and 2000:

3ptas up 32% over 2010, 82% over 2005, 64% over 2000. 3pt FG% up over 2000 and 2005 but down slightly from 2010. 2 pt FG% up 10% over 2005, 6% over 2000 but down slightly over 2010. Did increased 3ptas create more space for mid-range game early on? Not so recently?

Average 2015 SRS up 2% over 2010, 13% over 2005, 10% over 2000. Overall offensive rating down 2% from 2010, even with 2005, up 3% over 2000. So top 10 emphasis on 3 pt game didn't move the overall performance numbers that much. Top 10 defense got better by about as much. I guess the bottom 20 got worse on both sides of the court.

TS% up less than eFG% because of lost ftas:

TS% eFG%
0.53 0.49 2015
0.99 0.99 2010
1.02 1.04 2005
1.03 1.05 2000


2015 league averages vs in 2010, 2005 and 2000:

3ptas up 24% over 2010 or 25% less than for league average than just the top 10. Up 42% over 2005 or 50% less than for league average than just the top 10. Up 63% over 2000 or nearly the same. So the top 10 adopted the 3 much faster than league average after 2000.

3 point attempts up by 1.6 per game for league, to another high. Tied for biggest nominal increase year to year outside the huge jump related to the temporarily shorter line. OR% to a new low and the biggest nominal drop in 10 years. Points per game up 2.6, mostly due to pace increase (highest since '92-93). Offensive Rating up a bit from last season's decline but right at median for the time BR has tracked ORtg.

The scoring avg of 102.7 is the highest it's been since 1993. It sank then from 105.3 to 101.5, a shocking dropoff that precipitated the short 3-point line of '95-97.

This year's FT% is .757, the 17th best ever. This in spite of hacking DeAndre and Andre. Without the FT/fta of those 2, the rest of the league shot .773 ... Best years ever were .771, in 1974 and 2009: After Wilt and after Shaq.

Effective FG% is best-ever .502

Total Reb/G are at a 27-year high of 43.7.
Def Reb match the highest rate ever, as far as we know: 33.5/G in 1974.

Thanks for those additions. TO% is also basically tied for lowest ever.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... stats.html

A few of these details have been noted by some in mainstream media. Others, not. Yet or could be at all.

I assume the explosion of shot tracking data and attention to it helped significantly in the best ever efg%. But has it enough? How much has actual efg% increased vs. expected efg% for the time period we have data and has the effective yield from changed shot quality accelerated or stayed near same? The actual efg% increased the most between 2003-2009. When did teams first get Synergy data? Will we likely see more improvement? While this season is a peak, the gains have been small since 2009 with up and down. How much of the improvement is due to increased 3pta alone vs. any and everything else? Should we expect a second wave of increases is possible and will occur as other shot distribution changes happen? Will the rise be fast with a greater awareness of shot analytics (in contrast to recent history) or will it surprisingly still be slow in implementation as the increased use of the 3ptr went? When and when will it plateau ? Will weaker shooters become more rare in league and in minutes and / or will their usage rates shift dramatically? What do the league and team usage rate distributions look like between above and below average shooters or say the quartiles? What should be happening, beyond what is happening?

If there is a trend toward picking and playing better shooters is that also bringing weaker shot defense?
What is the correlation between own efg% and DRPM?

Dunno, but I noticed the GSW are losers in OReb, FTr, and TO. They're winning only with their record eFG%.

It is shocking that they are average or below on 6 factors but own efg% and opponent efg% allowed are the two biggest and having the #2 shot defense is a great companion to #1 efg%.

League averages FGAs per game at another historical high. Pace increase effect bigger than the reduction in second chance shots off offensive rebounds. Would be interesting to see change in frequency if shots in less than 7 seconds or 14 seconds. Perhaps the latter is larger?

Fast break point data for this season and last here. https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/f ... s-per-game Did it go up? Someone else want to sum? If not, I may do it another day. On phone at moment.