APBRmetrics

I'm experimenting with live win probabilities for the playoffs. Here's the link: http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_live.php

Please don't tweet out links just yet. But let me know if anything looks odd. If today goes well I'll probably do an official launch tomorrow.

It looks like the period counter isn't handling overtime correctly.

It looks like Toronto just went from 0.00 to 0.01 win probability which ought to be impossible unless that 0 is rounding down.

Excitement and comeback are showing 0.0, which might be wrong.

NateTG wrote:It looks like the period counter isn't handling overtime correctly.

It looks like Toronto just went from 0.00 to 0.01 win probability which ought to be impossible unless that 0 is rounding down.

Excitement and comeback are showing 0.0, which might be wrong.

Thanks Nate. Appreciate the feedback. I think I've got these issues fixed. Will probably do an official launch today.

What is your level of satisfaction with this now?

Crow wrote:What is your level of satisfaction with this now?

What I'm happy with:

• The model itself. It's producing reasonable numbers, and seems appropriately calibrated to actual data.
  Being able to add a version adjusted for pre-game odds.
  Making the pre-game odds version the default. In the moment, I think this is the number everybody cares about the most.
  Having real time stats on win probability added at the player level.
  The concept has gone mainstream somewhat, with ESPN using my numbers in an on-air graphic during Game 7 of LAC-HOU.

What I'm not happy with:

• Timeliness. For reasons I still can't discern, the "live" probabilities lag the action by a few minutes.
  It's largely a manual process for me. If it breaks and I'm not at home, I can't really fix it.
  Not thrilled with the visual design, but I probably never will be.