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What are your thoughts on Pop's Hack-a-Jordan strategy? Initially it might make sense. This is an extreme situation where it could be considered. #1 offense (1.12 PPP) and a historically bad FT shooter (40 FT%). But I think its much more complicated than 1.12>0.80.

The Spurs started the Hack-a-Jordan with 5:43 left and an 8 point lead

-It doesn't make sense why they did it with a 8 point lead. They are extending the game and giving the Clippers more possessions which is not what you want to give the underdog. I would understand it if they did this with a 8 point deficit.
-The Clippers would get in the bonus much faster in this situation. That makes their expected PPP higher.
-Teams score less in the halfcourt which makes fouling in half court situations even worse
-In the last few minutes of the 4th, offensive efficiency declines rapidly. It makes less sense to foul because its hard to late in the 4th
-The Clippers could get an Oreb after a Jordan FT Miss which adds to their expected PPP.
-The Clippers are a 4 man team. Fouling Jordan gives the Clippers more rest. That is beneficial to their team with no depth. It hurts the Spurs because their main strength is their depth.

The Spurs did the Hack-a-Jordan 6 times. 3 by Duncan. 2 by Diaw. 1 by Ginobili.

-Why are you giving your important guys foul trouble? You don't want Tim Duncan in foul trouble. Use a guard to foul to Jordan. You wouldn't want Duncan to foul out in a game that could potentially go into overtime.

that was one of the worst coaching decisions/strategies i've seen
i'm really not sure what pop was thinking

It had many side effects such as rest, 21% ORB chance of DJ's free throws, the improvement of clippers' defence after free throws (set defence), foul trouble of players like TD and Ginobili thus less efficiency on the offensive end and weak rim protection.

This is what's wrong with today's people. They think shooting percentages are all that matter. However, Popovich probably saw the momentum (in the 2-minute strech) which is the most important thing in any game and went with hack-a-shaq strategy as a momentum-breaker to give relief to his old team. One way or another it worked. So, I can't blame him.

permaximum wrote:It had many side effects such as rest, 21% ORB chance of DJ's free throws,....

How do you know they get that many OReb? They got 23% of all their missed shots, and DeAndre got half of them. Is he getting a lot of his own missed FT?

Mike G wrote:

permaximum wrote:It had many side effects such as rest, 21% ORB chance of DJ's free throws,....

How do you know they get that many OReb? They got 23% of all their missed shots, and DeAndre got half of them. Is he getting a lot of his own missed FT?

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/04/23/mis ... k-a-strat/

"Yet, the Clippers almost doubled the league average, rebounding 21.3% of Jordan’s errant throws on the season. "

"Of course, it might be a fluke. But last year, the Clips rebounded 20.6% of Jordan’s misses as well."

"In general, the shooting team contested about 27.5% of rebounds from missed free throws this past regular season. Unlike their general tendency to not chase offensive boards, the Clippers contested 37% of rebounds from Jordan misses this season, but only 17.1% of misses from rebounds by all other shooters. "

Wow. I wonder if other teams haven't noticed this. Hard to imagine.
He did have half of their OReb on the year -- including minutes when he's on the bench. I haven't seen him going after his own missed FT. So it seems other Clippers are getting multiples of their normal OReb rates when it's DeAndre at the line.

Now I wonder if it isn't a ploy to discourage other teams from hack-a-jordan. It might not even be a viable strategy, per possession, if it increases opponent ORtg.

It bears some looking into. Of his 284 FTx, about 22 (.583*38) were and-1's. Along with half of the other 262, about 153 were reboundable? So 21% of that is ~32 retaken by the Clipps.


EDIT: I assume the following statement...

Yet, the Clippers almost doubled the league average, rebounding 21.3% of Jordan’s errant throws on the season.

... refers to reboundable misses. That is, 2nd of 2 and and-1's.

hacking also allows a team to rest their offensive stars while putting on better defensive lineups.

Another factor is when you foul, even if allows a greater expected points per possession, it reduces the possibility of getting a three. If you are trying to stop a team from coming back from a deficit, this can be an important tool.

Mike G wrote: EDIT: I assume the following statement...

Yet, the Clippers almost doubled the league average, rebounding 21.3% of Jordan’s errant throws on the season.

... refers to reboundable misses. That is, 2nd of 2 and and-1's.

Yes.

what doesn't make sense to me is that if a team were to have metrics that say hack-a works, then why would it not be employed with any consistency?