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All '15 NBA players rated & ranked by WAR (HoopsNerd)

Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 10:34 pm
by Statman
Here are the results - with some historical perspective on a number of players in respect to some of their statistical skillsets:

http://hoopsnerd.com/?p=842

Re: All '15 NBA players rated & ranked by WAR (HoopsNerd)

Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2015 11:57 pm
by Crow
"No player has ever had as low a turnover rating (turned the ball over less relative to league, team pace, etc) who also had as good a scoring rating as Anthony Davis in 2015."

It is a strong credential. But, I think only 4 players with a BR offensive rating over 115 and a turnover rate below 8% won titles in those years out of 44 qualifiers over 1500 minutes since 1980 though. Less than I would have expected.

(All were 90s era Bulls, Kerr, Jordan twice and Horace Grant, but Grant's included season came in LA beside Shaq.)

Re: All '15 NBA players rated & ranked by WAR (HoopsNerd)

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:44 pm
by Statman
Crow wrote:"No player has ever had as low a turnover rating (turned the ball over less relative to league, team pace, etc) who also had as good a scoring rating as Anthony Davis in 2015."

It is a strong credential. But, I think only 4 players with a BR offensive rating over 115 and a turnover rate below 8% won titles in those years out of 44 qualifiers over 1500 minutes since 1980 though. Less than I would have expected.

(All were 90s era Bulls, Kerr, Jordan twice and Horace Grant, but Grant's included season came in LA beside Shaq.)
My scoring rating incorporates usage, so it's quite difficult to take & make a ton of shots & not turn the ball over much. Guys like Kerr & Grant had had their BR high O rating w/ low usage.

Not to mention his tons of block & steals with low turnovers.

Heck, his statistical skillset is so rare, you can set the parameters to >23% usage, <7% TO, >57% TS, & > 30 minutes TOTAL the whole season (all four he makes quite easily - being at 27.8, 6.3, 59.1, & 2455 respectively) - & he's the only guy in history to make the list.

Honestly though, 9% of 44 players in any data group winning a championship seems pretty good though - that'd theoretically be about 2.5 times higher than a random sample.

Re: All '15 NBA players rated & ranked by WAR (HoopsNerd)

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:11 pm
by Crow
If he someday leads his team to a title playing that way it will be unique. I agree Kerr and Grant are in a different category. Jordan in another because of usage. A broad higher usage category has a bigger set of title winning leaders. The part of that broad high usage category that is very high only has a few names in it, but a couple of handfuls of titles. Davis may not have company at his feel low to% but does he have title winning leaders at his usage rate? Yes, including Duncan. Duncan's 2004-5 title season was at a bit above 9% to%. Garnett's at under 11%. But need now to look at Davis' partners. He probably can't do it without being in a sufficiently big 2 or 3. And maybe it actually takes an outstanding system or systems. I probably should have said the previous 4 with my criteria of high efficiency - low turnovers were all in Jackson's triangle and helped by the strong defenses too.

Re: All '15 NBA players rated & ranked by WAR (HoopsNerd)

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:28 pm
by Mike G
I would say that Anthony Davis has one area in which he could or should improve, and that is rebounding. So he was 12th in DReb this year, 15th in TReb (9th per game). In DReb% he was 18th.
So he scores and blocks and steals like Robinson or Olajuwon or prime Mourning. But he's not an elite board man.

His Blk% is shown as 6.1
To put him in the middle of a list of shotblockers, his Blk% is 15th of 29 players with Blk% > 5.1, in as many career minutes.
http://bkref.com/tiny/btyZu

Of the 29, only the 3 mentioned above had greater career Usg%. Then it's a big drop to Hibbert. Median is 14!
The only guy close in TO% was Eddie Griffin; Ibaka and Robinson are the only others within 50%
His modest Ast% (8.8) is actually 6th best.
His Stl% trails only Hakeem, is equal to DRob's.
FTr ranks 13th, ahead of Olajuwon and waaay below Alonzo and Admiral.

The median ORb% is 10.5, and AD ranks #21 with 9.4 (Manute distantly last at 5.5)
His DRb% ranks 7th, and in TRb% he's 10th.

Among elite scorer-shotblockers, he's a mediocre rebounder.
Among all elite shotblockers, he's a pretty good rebounder.

And: In equal career minutes home and away, he has gotten 46% more blocks at home.
So: He may not actually even be a 5.1 Blk% guy.