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On June 11, 2015, the Cleveland Cavaliers were leading the NBA Finals by 2-1 against the Golden State Warriors. The biggest reasons that had contributed to them gaining the 2-1 series lead were the following:
1. The Cavaliers had played elite defense.
2. The Warriors had played terrible offense. This was somewhat due to the Cavalier defense, but also somewhat due to random variance.

The Cavaliers had gained the 2-1 series lead in spite of the following:
1. The Cavaliers had played terrible offense.
2. The Warriors had played elite defense.

The ignorant mainstream media had understood that the Cavaliers had played elite defense and that the Warriors had played terrible offense, but they had failed to recognize that the Warrior offense had faltered somewhat due to random variance. The ignorant mainstream media had also been sufficiently stupid to believe that because the Cavaliers had gained a 2-1 series lead, the strategy that the Cavaliers had used on offense had been extremely intelligent and had contributed to the 2-1 series lead the Cavaliers had gained. They actually believed that isolating Lebron James in the post nearly the entire game was an intelligent offensive strategy. They thought that this strategy had been successful partly because it had slowed the pace down and had prevented the Warriors from getting out in transition. They thought that the Cavaliers had no viable, alternative offensive strategies available. They thought that the Cavaliers could win the series by continuing this offensive strategy. They were mistaken.

The Cavaliers had been surviving by using their elite defense to crush an elite offense that was struggling somewhat due to random variance. The offensive strategy the Cavaliers had been using was stupid, and it had caused the Cavaliers to play horribly on offense. There were alternative offensive strategies available, and using them would have been the only way the Cavaliers could have won the series. The Warriors were handing Lebron James wide open threes off the dribble when he initiated pick and rolls as a ball handler, but he was constantly turning them down. When considering all factors, Lebron James would probably only have to hit these threes at about 25% to make them as good of an option as the offense he was generating for the Cavaliers in the post. He could have easily hit these at a high enough rate to make the Cavaliers play much better offense, but he continued to turn them down in exchange for worse options.

Everyone in the Cavalier organization had convinced themselves that because they had gained a 2-1 series lead, their offensive strategy was intelligent and they could continue using it to win the series. They were mistaken. In game 4, the Cavaliers finally learned how terribly they had played on offense. Somewhat due to random variance, the Golden State Warriors exploded on offense in game 4, played just as good defense as they had in the previous three games, and blew out the Cleveland Cavaliers by over twenty points. The Cavaliers could only muster barely over 80 points with their terrible offensive strategy. The Golden State Warriors went on to win the series in six games.

The Cavaliers could have won the series if Lebron James had gunned copious threes off the dribble after initiating pick and rolls, but alas, he didn't. Game 4 would have resulted in a 106-105 victory instead of a loss by more than twenty points. The Cavaliers would have went on to win the series in six games.

The Cavs are your favorite team, correct?
Let me take a wild stab in the dark, make a random assumption here, and say that, "You're not married, are you? "

Let me take a wild stab in the dark, make a random assumption here, and say that, "You mostly recycled that joke from someone else, didn't you? "

I'm not married or unmarried. I am not even an organism. I am exclusively defined as a prophetic entity.

You need to get your story straight. Either these other people (Cavs, media, ...) are stupid and ignorant, or you are the smartest person in the world.

Being smarter than stupid people doesn't make you smarter than a smart person.

I am quite possibly the most intelligent being in the history of existence.

I am the basketball entity that invented the basketball gods.

If I wanted to, I could use a laptop computer, Microsoft Excel, and 5000 hours of time to invent a statistical system that would predict the results of NBA games substantially better than any system available. How do I know this? Well let us see here, in probably less than 1000 hours I was already hitting an entire NBA season of spreads at around 95% accuracy. I believe my average error was somewhere slightly above 9.60 error per game and the spread was slightly below 9.20 error per game for that season. I wasn't even using any individual player statistics. I was using about 7 or 8 simple team statistics for each team and using these statistics to generate my own mathematical poetry.

I have done enough work to know my abilities. They far exceed anyone in existence.

I would now like to copy and paste one specific segment from my opening post in this topic.

This segment was written several hours before game 4:
Somewhat due to random variance, the Golden State Warriors exploded on offense in game 4, played just as good defense as they had in the previous three games, and blew out the Cleveland Cavaliers by over twenty points. The Cavaliers could only muster barely over 80 points with their terrible offensive strategy. The Golden State Warriors went on to win the series in six games.

That is all.

Here is the place where members of this board who doubted my status as one of the most intelligent beings in existence can apologize to me.

Please read my now legendary topic, "The Immortal Prophecy," which I wrote several hours before the start of game 4. In that topic, I made specific predictions that came true despite having a shockingly low probability of coming true due to chance. This is because the predictions did not come true due to chance. They came true because I have drastically greater basketball intelligence than any being in existence. I understand the game of basketball in ways that no one else can.

If I wanted to, I could develop mathematical equations that would better measure the greatness of individual players, better predict the results obtained from assembling any group of players into a team, and better predict the results of NBA games than any system ever devised. I can translate my acute recognition of basketball patterns into breathtakingly impressive mathematical equations. I simply don't see devoting a massive amount of time to that endeavor as a good use of my talents.

I will now gracefully accept any apologies that follow in this topic. That is all.

Before game 4? That's late to make suggestions. Before game 3, I wrote

I'm predicting more minutes from Barbosa, Livingston, Speights, and Ezeli. Maybe David Lee will appear!

I'm half right!
Not sure 103 points fulfills your "exploded on offense" prediction. That's still below their 110 ppg in the season.

Quote above appeared in the "2015 Finals" thread; and DSMok1 wrote there:

The expected team ratings based on lineup last night and regular season BPM: GSW +13.7 / +8.6 O / +5.1 D. CLE +5.5 / +5.5 O / +0.0 D.

This indicates the GS lineup should beat Cle by about 8 points/G. After 4 G, they're up 5.5 ppg.
Cavs have narrowed the gap largely by slowing the pace. Only 4 GS games in the season were as slow as these last 4 (< 91 poss/48). This has the added benefit of giving overworked Cle players some rest, offsetting the GS depth advantage.

Here's an article about Kyrie Irving, and the potential risk when players get too many minutes at too young an age:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/sport ... pe=article

The slowing the pace factor is where people are making mistakes. The optimum strategy for the Cavaliers would actually be to increase the pace in a specific way. James gunning threes early in the shot clock as a ball handler in the pick and roll would have several advantages associated with it:
1. Three point misses are offensively rebounded more than mid-range misses
2. Three point misses lead to less fast breaks than paint misses and mid-range misses
3. James abstaining from making a single pass and shooting early in the shot clock would significantly reduce turnovers.
4. James would only have to shoot a laughably low percentage on these threes to generate better offense than he is generating with isolation post-ups
5. Golden state might sometimes trap James in the pick and roll which could lead to James passing to the rolling big man and good offense for the Cavaliers.

The most important thing for the Cavaliers in regards to limiting fast-breaks for Golden State is to limit fast-breaks PER POSSESSION. Three point misses lead to less fast-breaks than paint misses and mid-range misses. Less turnovers per possession leads to less fast-breaks for the other team per possession. The ignorant media only sees that the pace has slowed and misinterprets that as a good strategy for the Cavaliers because they think it limits fast-break opportunities for Golden State. Yes, it has somewhat of an effect of limiting fast-breaks PER GAME for Golden State, but not PER POSSESSION.

The only positive effect worth mentioning that the Cavaliers gain from the slower pace that results from James isolations is the shrinking expected differential between the teams when applying a simple "multiply the difference in the teams per possession by the total expected possessions" approach. This positive effect would be far outweighed by the positive effects that the Cavaliers would gain by actually INCREASING the pace in the specific way that I have outlined.

I am simply on a higher level than the Cavaliers organization and the ignorant mainstream media.

You don't mention a higher pace having a deleterious effect on Cavs' players who are already overworked. Players get winded, their defense suffers, they can't shoot, etc.
Standing/shifting around watching LeBron back down his defender, they get some rest. Then they're ready to go on D, ready to take a shot, etc.

LeBron has 2 other marginal starting-quality players in Thompson and Mozgov; then a bunch of replacement types. And they're tied in the series.

My intuition is that it does not matter enough to outweigh the advantages gained by proceeding with my strategy. I will admit that I have no way of proving this at this moment though.

If James launches threes out of pick and roll as a ball handler then there is really only one player, the pick man, expending more energy on offense per possession. Yes, this will lead to significantly more total energy expenditure by the pick man during the game on offense, slightly more total energy expenditure by the Cavalier supporting cast members other than the pick man during offense, and significantly more total energy expenditure by the Cavaliers on defense.

However, James will spend significantly less energy on offense as well.

Well, the human body doesn't care about energy use per possession. It can produce just so much energy per unit of time, and really per whatever minutes you play on a given night.

Even LeBron backing down his man is using less energy per second than he'd have to produce by quickly shooting and then hustling back on defense.

If basketball were a single-possession contest, your positions might be arguable. But it's not, so they aren't, as long as you ignore human energy constraints.

I took into account total possessions. I feel like people on this board constantly misread or misinterpret my posts. It has become frustrating.

I will paste a section from my previous post with some words bolded for emphasis:
"Yes, this will lead to significantly more TOTAL energy expenditure by the pick man DURING THE GAME on offense, slightly more TOTAL energy expenditure by the Cavalier supporting cast members other than the pick man DURING OFFENSE, and significantly more TOTAL energy expenditure by the Cavaliers ON DEFENSE.

However, James will spend significantly less energy on offense as well."

Now, as for James backing down his man. I think that he would actually spend much more energy backing down his man with physicality and then hustling back on defense an even greater distance.

Keep in mind that if you actually support this James isolation strategy due to the rest factor and the total differential shrinkage factor, you are basically supporting a strategy that will almost undoubtably lead to copious offensive disasters just so the Cavaliers can rest more and reduce the total differential expected from applying a simple "multiply the difference in teams per possession by the total expected possessions" approach.

It is much more likely that my strategy would allow the Cavaliers to have a much better chance at defeating the Warriors.