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LeBron vs Jordan
Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2015 1:50 pm
by Mike G
LeBron's career is approaching that of Jordan's. In many ways, they're virtually identical at this point.
Some regular season summaries:
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RS G Min eFG% TS% TRb% Ast% Stl% Usg% PER WS/48 BPM
Jordan 911 35769 .518 .580 9.4 24.9 3.3 33.5 29.1 .274 9.0
LeBron 930 35887 .530 .581 10.8 34.5 2.3 31.7 27.7 .240 9.2
This omits Jordan's 2 years in Washington, age 38-39. Also, of course, it doesn't include LeBron's future years of decline (though it includes his teenage rookie season).
Their RS are within 20 games and 120 minutes of one another. Jordan was more of an O-Rebounder, LeBron does it on DReb.
Playoff totals:
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PO G Min eFG% TS% TRb% Ast% Stl% Usg% PER WS/48 BPM
Jordan 179 7474 .503 .568 9.3 28.2 2.7 35.6 28.6 .255 10.1
LeBron 178 7561 .507 .565 12.5 33.4 2.2 32.1 27.4 .234 10.4
It's hard to imagine two players any closer in games and minutes, and a few other things.
In PO, LeBron picks up his Usg% a bit; Jordan, Ast and Usg%, a lot.
Re: LeBron vs Jordan
Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2015 2:45 pm
by Mike G
Looking for best individual playoff games, the only 'advanced' stat at b-r.com is Game Score. This is mostly about production, but it includes some efficiency. GmSc is available from 1986 to present.
A GmSc of 40 is super-duper. It's only been done 40 times in playoffs (since '86), and only once in the Finals (Duncan to start the 2003 series).
Since MJ and LBJ have both been to 6 NBA Finals, it's fair to compare their 'big games' along with others.
Playoff games above certain GmSc, Finals games in parentheses:
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40+ GmSc 35+ GmSc 30+ GmSc
7 Jordan 22 Jordan (2) 48 Jordan (8)
3 Olajuwon 12 LeBron 25 Shaq (8)
3 Barkley 11 Barkley (2) 25 LeBron (3)
3 Shaq 9 Olajuwon 22 Olajuwon
3 Dirk 8 Shaq (2) 19 Barkley (2)
2 Ewing 7 Dirk 17 Wade (4)
2 KJ 5 Magic (1) 15 Kobe (1)
2 Iverson 5 Iverson (1) 14 Magic (5)
2 Kobe 5 Duncan (1) 14 Duncan (2)
2 LeBron 4 Drex/Kobe 13 Bird (2)
Jordan about doubles anyone else, at each of these "super" levels. But Shaq also had monster Finals.
Surely this disparity diminishes when counting games that are not as great?
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25+ GmSc 20+ GmSc 15+ GmSc
84 Jordan (18) 130 Jordan (26) 162 Jordan (31)
65 LeBron (10) 119 LeBron (20) 153 Duncan (21)
54 Shaq (13) 94 Shaq (20) 148 LeBron (24)
52 Olajuwon (5) 91 Duncan (13) 134 Kobe (24)
41 Duncan (6) 90 Kobe (14) 132 Shaq (23)
41 Kobe (4) 89 Olajuwon (10) 123 Malone (7)
40 Dirk (2) 76 Magic (19) 116 Olajuwon (16)
38 Magic (9) 71 Malone (3) 99 Magic (23)
32 Malone (3) 64 Dirk (4) 94 Dirk (6)
30 Barkley (2) 54 Bird (11) 93 Pippen (18)
Jordan had 17 playoff games with GmSc < 15 (Bulls went 6-11). Four occurred in Finals (1-3)
LeBron's had 30 such PO games (team 7-23). Nine times in the Finals (1-8)
In wins and in losses, their median GmSc :
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PO GmSc W-L W% all Win Loss
Jordan 119-60 .665 24.6 26.1 21.0
LeBron 115-63 .646 22.5 24.5 18.2
LeBron seems less consistent: The difference, in wins and in losses, is 28% of his norm. For Jordan, it's 21%
Re: LeBron vs Jordan
Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2015 2:34 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
LeBron G Min eFG% TS% TRb% Ast% Stl% Usg% PER WS/48 BPM
RS 930 35887 .530 .581 10.8 34.5 2.3 31.7 27.7 .240 9.2
PO 178 7561 .507 .565 12.5 33.4 2.2 32.1 27.4 .234 10.4
EDIT -- Both his ORb% and DRb% go up 15-20% in playoffs.
These career rates -- Usg% and Ast% -- may not accurately reflect what a player tends to do in a given year.
What if, for example, LeBron's Miami years are over-represented in his playoff minutes; and these years coincide with lower Ast% (both in RS and PO) ?
We should look at playoff years and compare each season's RS and PO rates; then weigh by PO minutes and sum them. Rather than Usg%, I'm looking at true shot attempts (FGA + .44*FTA) per 100 possessions.
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. Regular Seasons Playoffs Rate Changes
.yr tm TSA Ast% Min TSA Ast% TSA Ast%
2006 Cle 34.7 32.8 604 33.2 28.1 -1.5 -4.7
2007 Cle 32.0 29.1 893 30.4 37.4 -1.6 8.3
2008 Cle 34.9 37.3 552 33.2 40.5 -1.7 3.2
2009 Cle 34.5 38.0 580 38.4 39.5 3.9 1.5
2010 Cle 33.1 41.8 460 29.6 36.8 -3.6 -5.0
2011 Mia 30.6 34.9 922 26.6 27.6 -4.0 -7.3
2012 Mia 31.4 33.6 983 33.5 28.1 2.1 -5.5
2013 Mia 29.2 36.4 960 29.1 30.5 -.1 -5.9
2014 Mia 29.2 32.0 763 29.9 25.6 .8 -6.4
2006-2014 31.8 34.6 6717 31.2 31.9 -.6 -2.6
2015 Cle 31.5 38.6 844 38.7 45.2 7.2 6.6
total 31.8 35.0 7561 32.1 33.4 .3 -1.6
The last 2 columns show that before this past year, his PO Ast% was well below his RS Ast% for 5 straight playoffs. In most playoffs, he also has shot less.
Note: I see that in 4 Miami years, D Wade averaged 26 minutes per team game in RS. In PO he went 37 mpg. That likely contributes to a relatively inflated RS Ast% for non-Wade players.
Re: LeBron vs Jordan
Posted: Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:58 pm
by Crow
Took me awhile to click, as I didn't think the topic would interest me; but it is a real close general stat comparison worth recognizing.
Re: LeBron vs Jordan
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:45 am
by permaximum
Lebron doesn't pass the simple eye test to compare him to Jordan. The difference is that big imo. However LeBron's stats are better and we know it already. RB% and AST% have always been way above Jordans'.
Re: LeBron vs Jordan
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:47 pm
by bchaikin
simulation shows lebron's best seasons as generating wins on a per minute basis at a rate similar to that of the best win generating seasons of SFs like julius erving and larry bird...
but as great as that is, it also shows jordan's best seasons (simulating him at SF) generate 3-5 more wins per season than those of lebron on a 40 min/g and 82 game basis...
considering the difference between the best and worst starting players at a particular position in any season is typically 15-16 wins on a 40 min/g and 82 game basis, 3-5 more wins is quite a large difference...
jordan's best seasons he was scoring 30+ pts/g with rates of offensive efficiency (pts/0ptposs) similar to reggie miller. lebron james has had just 2 seasons (12-13 and 13-14) with rates of offensive efficiency similar...
on top of that jordan's rates for defensive rebounding, steals, and blocks - in combination - were outstanding for an SG. add to that 9 years all-D 1st team, including 3 years straight from the ages of 33-35...
Re: LeBron vs Jordan
Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:34 am
by Mike G
Here's the whole list of players with career Ast% and Reb% as good as Jordan's:
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player TReb% Ast%
Kidd 10.0 38.5
Jordan 9.4 24.9
Drexler 9.9 25.2
LeBron 10.8 34.5
Magic 11.1 40.9
McGrady 9.8 26.3
Lever 10.1 26.4
(MCW is also in there, with 9.4 and 33.5, for now)
Of these, Magic is best in both of these rates.
In playoffs, a similar list:
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playoffs TReb% Ast%
LeBron 12.5 33.4
Magic 10.9 42.2
Jordan 9.3 28.2
Kidd 10.1 35.9
Rondo 9.4 42.8
McMillan 9.3 32.1
McGrady 9.6 32.9
These are in order of minutes played; LeBron, Magic, and Jordan all have around 7500 PO Min.
Do all these players have 'better stats' than Jordan?
Re: LeBron vs Jordan
Posted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:02 pm
by Mike G
Worth mentioning: Jordan reached those totals by age 35. LeBron is there at age 30.
After this season, we can't just say Jordan was better. LeBron may well eclipse all other careers; might even say obliterate.
We'll still be able to point out various players' success (titles), pure shooting, certain awards, etc: better than LeBron at certain things.
Re: LeBron vs Jordan
Posted: Sun Oct 11, 2015 11:53 pm
by Dr Positivity
Jordan has a more impeccable clutch/playoffs career which I think has as much to do with their style of play as personality. Jordan's ability to hit midrange shots at a Dirk % (judging by NBA.com shooting stats for 97 and 98) make it hard to force any bad game out of him. His shots from the worst spot on the floor go in 50% of the time and he has a baseline of highly efficient shots at the rim and from FT line so what do you do to get a bad shooting game out of him? The other thing that's scary about Jordan is that in addition to hand check rules in modern era he grew up in a far less 3pt-emphasized era, as possibly the best midrange shooter of all time if he have developed in the 2000s, with all that talent hitting shots inside the line, maybe he could've used that to turn himself into a deadly 3pt shooter also. Not Steph Curry but a bigger part of his gam than he showed. The argument against Jordan: An icy personality and we don't know how much having the all time best babysitter coach in Phil Jackson helped maximize his career.