Differences in WS/48, BPM, and PER
Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2015 2:41 pm
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... anced.html
Paring the 2014-15 player list down to those (349) who played at least 600 minutes, I derived estimated win rates (per48) via PER and BPM, simply by minimizing avg difference from WS/48:
perW/48 = (PER-5.75)/92.5
bpmW/48 = (BPM+5.14)/51.4
Both these formulas also produce avg = .100
For PER, this is 15.0; for BPM, it's zero.
Biggest discrepancies between WS/48 and BPM:All those on the left are C and PF. On the right are a few 'bigs'.
BPM loves those who rebound and assist. WS loves high% shooters.
Top departures between BPM and PER:Note Whiteside topped the previous list also. And his PER-equivalent win rate is identical to his WS/48.
Finally, PER vs WS/48 differences:
Paring the 2014-15 player list down to those (349) who played at least 600 minutes, I derived estimated win rates (per48) via PER and BPM, simply by minimizing avg difference from WS/48:
perW/48 = (PER-5.75)/92.5
bpmW/48 = (BPM+5.14)/51.4
Both these formulas also produce avg = .100
For PER, this is 15.0; for BPM, it's zero.
Biggest discrepancies between WS/48 and BPM:
Code: Select all
WS/48-bpmW WS/48 BPM bpmW bpmW-WS48 WS/48 BPM bpmW
Whiteside .221 -.9 .082 Kobe .006 .3 .106
Speights .158 -2.6 .049 Westbrook .222 11.0 .314
Valanciunas .189 -.5 .090 Josh Smith .048 1.0 .119
Kanter .145 -2.1 .059 MC-Williams .017 -.7 .086
Baynes .166 -1.0 .081 G Harris -.046 -4.3 .016
Landry .112 -3.6 .030 Stephenson -.026 -3.5 .032
Hansbrough .156 -.5 .090 Rubio .033 -.5 .090
Stoudemire .138 -1.4 .073 Wroten .014 -1.5 .071
Biyombo .156 -.4 .092 Batum .105 3.1 .160
D Howard .140 -1.2 .077 T Evans .082 1.9 .137
WS/48-bpmW WS/48 BPM bpmW bpmW-WS48 WS/48 BPM bpmW
Dedmon .099 -3.3 .036 Rondo .037 -.5 .090
T Zeller .179 .9 .118 Millsap .020 -1.6 .069
T Thompson .148 -.6 .088 Cousins .144 4.7 .191
Humphries .134 -1.3 .075 Shumpert .047 -.4 .092
Aldridge .165 .3 .106 T Allen .119 3.3 .164
Freeland .122 -1.8 .065 LeBron .199 7.4 .244
Pekovic .069 -4.5 .012 Smart .077 1.1 .121
T Black .124 -1.6 .069 Amundson .017 -2.0 .061
B Lopez .159 .2 .104 E Payton .044 -.7 .086
Ajinca .159 .2 .104 K Walker .101 2.2 .143
BPM loves those who rebound and assist. WS loves high% shooters.
Top departures between BPM and PER:
Code: Select all
perW-bpmW BPM bpmW PER perW bpmW-perW BPM bpmW PER perW
Whiteside -.9 .082 26.2 .221 Dr Green 5.0 .197 16.4 .115
Pekovic -4.5 .012 16.6 .117 Da Green 5.0 .197 16.5 .116
Speights -2.6 .049 19.5 .149 Batum 3.1 .160 13.1 .079
Kanter -2.1 .059 20.3 .157 M Barnes 1.6 .131 11.3 .060
Bargnani -3.7 .028 16.6 .117 Bogut 4.1 .180 15.8 .109
S Muhammad -1.8 .065 19.9 .153 Roberson .3 .106 9.1 .036
Stoudemire -1.4 .073 20.3 .157 T Allen 3.3 .164 14.6 .096
B Lopez .2 .104 22.7 .183 Patterson 3.2 .162 14.6 .096
Boozer -3.3 .036 16.4 .115 Korver 3.3 .164 14.8 .098
Aldridge .3 .106 22.8 .184 Smart 1.1 .121 11.0 .057
perW-bpmW BPM bpmW PER perW bpmW-perW BPM bpmW PER perW
Drummond -.2 .096 21.4 .169 Matthews 3.9 .176 16.1 .112
B Gordon -6.1 -.019 10.6 .052 Noah 3.4 .166 15.3 .103
Valanciunas -.5 .090 20.6 .161 Crabbe -.3 .094 8.7 .032
Landry -3.6 .030 14.9 .099 Ariza 1.9 .137 12.7 .075
D Howard -1.2 .077 19.2 .145 Westbrook 11.0 .314 29.1 .252
J Hill -2.6 .049 16.2 .113 Iguodala 1.6 .131 12.3 .071
Villanueva -1.8 .065 17.4 .126 Temple .8 .116 10.9 .056
Sims -3.4 .034 14.5 .095 H Walker -1.0 .081 8.0 .024
Vucevic .5 .110 21.5 .170 Beverley .8 .116 11.3 .060
N Young -3.5 .032 14.2 .091 M Miller -3.0 .042 4.6 -.012
Finally, PER vs WS/48 differences:
Code: Select all
perW-WS/48 PER perW WS/48 WS/48-perW PER perW WS/48
Kobe 17.6 .128 .006 Hansbrough 13.3 .082 .156
Wroten 14.9 .099 .014 Bonner 10.1 .047 .110
Wade 21.4 .169 .086 T Chandler 20.1 .155 .216
LaVine 11.3 .060 -.018 M Leonard 14.8 .098 .158
Josh Smith 12.3 .071 -.006 H Barnes 13.4 .083 .139
C Anthony 21.5 .170 .097 Baynes 15.9 .110 .166
MC-Williams 14.1 .090 .017 Crabbe 8.7 .032 .088
Rose 15.9 .110 .038 Biyombo 15.2 .102 .156
Rubio 15.2 .102 .033 Morrow 14.8 .098 .151
Cousins 25.2 .210 .144 Freeland 12.2 .070 .122
perW-WS/48 PER perW WS/48 WS/48-perW PER perW WS/48
Bargnani 16.6 .117 .058 J Jones 11.1 .058 .110
Stephenson 8.8 .033 -.026 D Jordan 21.0 .165 .217
Early 8.4 .029 -.030 Paul 26.0 .219 .270
Hill 16.2 .113 .055 Bogut 15.8 .109 .159
Wiggins 13.9 .088 .034 Dorsey 11.1 .058 .108
Payne 7.7 .021 -.033 Korver 14.8 .098 .148
Boozer 16.4 .115 .062 Dr Green 16.4 .115 .163
MoWilliams 15.4 .104 .052 Curry 28.0 .241 .288
Ellis 16.5 .116 .065 Splitter 18.9 .142 .189
Josh Smith 14.9 .099 .048 Da Green 16.5 .116 .163