APBRmetrics

Hey all,

I've been working on season-stat-line projections for NBA players for the past few days, and I've linked it below. It's still pretty bare-bones, as there aren't as many team-wide adjustments as I would like.

Per 36 Minutes/Rate Stats (The first tab shows per 36 minute projections, while the second tab shows advanced stat projections.

Per Game/Total Stats (First tab shows per game projections, second tab shows total projections).

I used the Marcel and Simple Projection System as bases for this system. I used Kevin Pelton's minutes projections for the per-game stats. Much of the work involved shooting percentages, and I'm still not sure if I used the right approach towards them.

Things the system could improve upon:

1. Team-wide rebounding (i.e., the diminishing returns of having a great rebounder on the team)

2. 3-point shooting percentages for low usage players

3. Possibly regresses scoring too much (it has 22 players scoring 20+ points per 36 minutes, while SPS has 30)

4. Using things other than solely NBA stats

Let me know what you guys think!

For stars, which projections are you closest and further away on? Would you revise anything? You could and see how much better you can get.