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Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:55 pm
by Mike G
After 10 games, it appears to be shaping up as something special.
So far, 8 of Curry's 10 games -- according to GmSc -- would rank among his 25 best games last year.
Before his 2 weak games, I noticed every other player on the team had shot worse (through 5 or 6 games) than last season.
And in those 2 'bad' outings, the rest of the team stepped up.
Here's how they add up now:
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2014-15 FGA FTA Pts TSA PPS
Warriors 7137 1709 9016 7889 1.143
Curry 1341 337 1900 1489 1.276
others 5796 1372 7116 6400 1.112
2015-16 FGA FTA Pts TSA PPS
Warriors 882 235 1148 985 1.165
Curry 205 68 333 235 1.418
others 677 167 815 750 1.086
GSW has 21.8 more points this year than they averaged last year on 985 TSA.
Curry has 33.3 additional points from his 235 attempts.
The rest of the team has 19.5 points less.
Right now, only Thompson, Barbosa, and Speights are shooting appreciably worse; and David Lee is gone.
If Curry regresses to his 2015
mere MVP form, the team is still about 1.5 ppg worse than last year, on offense.
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 4:55 pm
by Crow
For this early partial season, Warriors have an SRS about 30% above the best full season SRS of all-time.
6 of the other 7 above plus 10 on SRS won titles, with the 7th losing the finals to a team 1pt higher on SRS.
They are equal or better than last season on almost every team stat. Exceptions are blocks made and taken and own turnovers. Fouls given could count as negative or positive but with ft rate allowed down and shot defense excellent, I'd count it as a positive in this case.
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 7:48 pm
by Dr Positivity
VEDS per minute (DBPM variant)
2015-2016 (player, VEDS per minute, total minutes)
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Stephen Curry 1.258 343
Draymond Green 0.77 331
Klay Thompson 0.553 307
Harrison Barnes 0.678 305
Andre Iguodala 0.763 278
Festus Ezeli 0.675 199
Shaun Livingston 0.411 192
Leandro Barbosa 0.479 131
Marreese Speights 0.175 98
Andrew Bogut 0.734 74
James Michael McAdoo 0.276 47
Brandon Rush 0.221 34
Jason Thompson 0.517 32
Ian Clark 1.067 31
2014-2015
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Stephen Curry 0.856 2613
Draymond Green 0.729 2490
Klay Thompson 0.673 2455
Harrison Barnes 0.573 2318
Andre Iguodala 0.567 2069
Andrew Bogut 0.57 1583
Shaun Livingston 0.39 1468
Mareese Speights 0.551 1207
Leandro Barbosa 0.502 982
David Lee 0.559 904
Justin Holiday 0.529 657
Festus Ezeli 0.461 504
Brandon Rush 0.204 271
James Michael McAdoo 0.464 137
Ognjen Kuzmic 0.559 72
.5 is about a league average player, .3 replacement level
Other than Curry going Super Saiyan, compared to last year they rate as getting a lot from Iguodala, Barnes, Ezeli and Bogut in limited minutes is off to a good start. Iguodala and Bogut will likely cool off but Barnes and Ezeli are young so who knows. Klay Thompson's game is off (might be hurt) and Speights somewhat predictably turned into a pumpkin.
Nobody with real minutes had over .90 last year, Anthony Davis was a few hundred thousandths below .9, and Curry was the only other one above .85. Curry is an MVP and a half right now so far this year
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Sat Nov 14, 2015 1:40 pm
by Mike G
Curry has 8 of the top 84 GameScores of the season (GmSc > 22.4), and 3 of the top 5
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GmSc player tm opp Min Pts Reb As St Bk TO
49.2 Curry GSW NOP 36 53 4 9 4 0 2
40.7 A Davis NOP Atl 41 43 10 3 4 3 1
37.6 Harden Hou Sac 42 43 6 13 2 0 7
36.6 Curry GSW Min 38 46 5 4 2 0 3
34.9 Curry GSW NOP 36 40 6 7 2 0 2
33.8 Westbrook Okl Orl 48 48 11 8 1 1 6
32.9 Drummond Det Por 36 29 27 0 2 3 1
32.8 R Jackson Det Por 34 40 5 5 2 0 2
31.8 Durant Okl Orl 54 43 12 2 1 2 2
31.4 Curry GSW Den 35 34 7 10 1 2 2
Durant and Drummond have 2 in the top 20.
Durant and LeBron are the only players with half as many (4) GmSc at this level.
[Mere mortals and "MVP candidates" in a normal year.]
Curry has 4 of 10 games with more points than minutes (not counting 34 in 34:39). How would one find the record in that category?
In '87, Jordan did it in 29 of 82 games; a few more times Min = Pts.
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2015 1:04 pm
by Mike G
Top Ast/100 poss seasons by players listed at F (F-G, F, F-C)
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forwards yr tm Ast/100 #9+
LeBron 2010 Cle 11.5 7
Bristow 1982 Dal 10.7 2
G Hill 1997 Det 10.7 4
L Walton 2013 Cle 10.1 1
D Green 2016 GSW 9.9 -
Pippen 2002 Por 9.8 2
McGrady 2007 Hou 9.5 1
Bird 1990 Bos 9.3 4
Odom 2002 LAC 9.1 1
R Barry 1979 Hou 9.0 1
Final column is the number of seasons w 9.0 or more Ast/100. F have 23 such seasons since 1978.
Bristow, Walton, Pippen, Bird, and Barry all top out at >30 years old.
http://bkref.com/tiny/ZtUBk
Of players in this group, only Bird and Hill (twice each) and LeBron have had better TReb% than Draymond (13.1). Only Hill was younger at the time.
Only Odom had a higher Blk/100 rate, in a short (29 G) season.
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:22 am
by Crow
Warriors "death" small lineup is now best lineup used over 50 minutes on offensive efficiency in 16 yrs of BR's database. A handful of close competitors before tonight.
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2015 1:20 pm
by Mike G
Players listed as F or F-C, top Ast/100 seasons:
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As/100 forward yr tm
10.2 Draymond Green 2016 GSW
10.1 Luke Walton 2013 Cle
9.3 Larry Bird 1990 Bos
9.1 Lamar Odom 2002 LAC
9.0 Rick Barry 1979 Hou
8.8 Boris Diaw 2006 Phx
8.5 Toni Kukoc 1997 Chi
8.1 Sasha Volkov 1992 Atl
8.0 Kevin Garnett 2005 Min
8.0 Detlef Schrempf 1993 Ind
Who remembers Alexander Volkov? He played 2 seasons, 1990 and 92, listed at C both years.
Looking at
Ast%, we see players who also score a lot moving up, relative to non-scorers.
Both lists are showing only top season by each player.
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Ast% forward yr tm
31.8 Toni Kukoc 1999 Chi
28.9 Larry Bird 1990 Bos
28.7 Luke Walton 2013 Cle
28.6 Draymond Green 2016 GSW
28.6 Lamar Odom 2002 LAC
27.1 Kevin Garnett 2005 Min
27.0 Blake Griffin 2016 LAC
26.8 Jamal Mashburn 2001 Cha
26.8 Antoine Walker 2001 Bos
26.7 Kevin Durant 2014 OKC
Toni was the go-to guy for Chicago in '99. Career high Usg% and career low TS%.
Bird owns 8 of the top 22 spots.
http://bkref.com/tiny/wurKi
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2015 11:45 am
by Mike G
The b-r.com Playoff Forecast page shows teams' chances of going to and winning the Finals. It's turning into a close race, thanks to the Bucks' outscoring the Warriors by 25 pts over 7 quarters.
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Fin% SRS Go Win W/G
GSW 11.90 .504 .426 .845
SAS 11.41 .407 .344 .845
That's .845 W%
if they Go: Either team has the same high chance of beating whomever comes from the East.
OKC would beat the eastern team 65% likely; but only .065 chance of getting there.
GS now in a dead heat with the '71 Bucks for highest SRS ever.
SA ranks 5th all-time, behind also the '72 Lakers and '96 Bulls.
The Spurs lost their opener, were 3-2, and since then have won 4 to 6 games between losses.
Here's their cumulative ORtg and DRtg, and the ratio of the 2, just before each loss:
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W L ORtg DRtg O/D
3 1 102.9 92.8 1.109
9 2 107.6 96.2 1.119
14 3 105.6 95.3 1.108
18 4 106.9 94.3 1.134
23 5 109.2 95.1 1.148
The surge has been in the last 10 games. That last entry, of course, may not be "just before a loss".
On that note, the Pacers come to SA next; so it's one of the more likely Finals scenarios.
At one time, sports-talkers said such a Finals would be a "disaster" for the NBA. Do they still talk like that?
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:53 pm
by Mike G
This may be the last day the Warriors are ranked ahead of the Spurs; or it may be the Spurs' closest approach.
Either way, the b-r.com Forecast page is interesting:
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Fin% SRS Go Win W/G
GSW 11.75 .475 .403 .848
SAS 11.71 .423 .363 .858
The Spurs are less likely to win the West, but a bit more likely to win the Finals if they go there.
Is this just a home court advantage thing?
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:31 pm
by Mike G
Without playing a game, both these teams' SRS ticked upward. Apparently their previous opponents look a bit better today.
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tm SRS Pace ORtg DRtg O-D *pace
GS 11.78 99.7 115.0 101.7 13.3 13.26
SA 11.73 93.9 108.8 94.7 14.1 13.24
Does GS have the better SRS just because they play at a higher pace?
If they are playing one another, they'll play at the same pace. According to ORtg-DRtg, the Spurs are the better team thus far.
Spurs' SOS is 0.11 stronger than GS'.
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 11:39 pm
by Statman
Mike G wrote:Does GS have the better SRS just because they play at a higher pace?
Yes.
The biggest "flaw" of SRS is no pace adjustment. Not hating on it though - it's still a quick/easy reference to for judging team quality that I refer too often during a season.
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 11:50 pm
by Nate
Statman wrote:...
The biggest "flaw" of SRS is no pace adjustment. Not hating on it though - it's still a quick/easy reference to for judging team quality that I refer too often during a season.
Don't things also get a bit non-linear when some teams are resting starters are lot?
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Thu Dec 24, 2015 4:37 am
by Statman
Nate wrote:
Don't things also get a bit non-linear when some teams are resting starters are lot?
Yes, that would be a 2nd, albeit not huge imo, "issue" with SRS compared a more complex methodology.
SRS does what it's supposed to do - give us a better next step look at team quality beyond simple point differential. Plus, it's at b-r, so I glance over it often when doing other things b-r related. It's simple, but now familiar.
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Thu Dec 24, 2015 6:06 pm
by EvanZ
Re: Curry and the Warriors' historic season.
Posted: Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:22 pm
by Statman
Honestly, I think SRS gets used so much because we all pull our stats from b-r for about everything. I don't think anyone is using for any serious analysis.