APBRmetrics

Posted: **Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:53 am**

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/nba ... ayers-ever

It was somewhat laborious to compile the whole list, but I figured it would be worthwhile since there's such a lot of good new stats they could be working with.
Since I've been keeping a list for a good while, and keeping up with others' rankings, it's hard to avoid making comparisons.

In my top 100 are 27 players who didn't make their list; same number in their list that rank beyond 100 in mine.
I'm in an agreeable mood; so here they are ranked from most agreeable at the top, to least agreement down at the bottom. Ratio of my/their rankings, with 115 assigned to the 27 that they didn't rank.:

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m/e     under         mg  espn      m/e     over          mg espn
.99   Jerry Lucas     78   79      1.00   Dirk Nowitzki   17   17
.98   Allen Iverson   45   46      1.00   Julius Erving   14   14
.97   Bob Cousy       38   39      1.00   Kobe Bryant     12   12
.97   Chris Bosh      83   86      1.00 Kareem AbdulJabbar 2    2
.91   Dave Cowens     50   55      1.00   Michael Jordan   1    1
.90   Tony Parker     52   58      1.02   Alonzo Mourning 66   65
.89   Rick Barry      33   37      1.07   Carmelo Anthony 63   59
.87   Maurice Lucas  100  115      1.07   John Havlicek   30   28
.86   Rajon Rondo     99  115      1.08   Grant Hill      86   80
.85   Gus Williams    98  115      1.12   Nate Thurmond  103   92
.84   Bob Dandridge   97  115      1.16   Reggie Miller   59   51
.84   Scottie Pippen  21   25      1.17   Gary Payton     48   41
.83   Charles Barkley 15   18      1.17   Bob McAdoo      61   52
.83   Jason Kidd      29   35      1.18   Alex English    73   62
.83   Tom Heinsohn    95  115      1.24 Dave DeBusschere 105   85
.82   Zach Randolph   94  115      1.24   Dennis Johnson 104   84
.81   Sam Cassell     93  115      1.26   Adrian Dantley  91   72
.80   Josh Smith      92  115      1.27 Russell Westbrook 62   49
.80   Elvin Hayes     32   40      1.28   Chris Paul      37   29
.80   David Robinson  16   20      1.28   Blake Griffin   96   75
.80   Hakeem Olajuwon  8   10      1.29   Sam Jones      101   78
.79   Elgin Baylor    19   24      1.30 Dominique Wilkins 57   44
.77   Baron Davis     89  115      1.31   Paul Arizin    118   90
.77   Horace Grant    88  115      1.32   John Stockton   25   19
.76  Billy Cunningham 67   88      1.36   George Gervin   64   47
.76   Alvan Adams     87  115      1.38   Jerry West      18   13
.75   Patrick Ewing   24   32      1.39   George Mikan    46   33
.74   Dwyane Wade     20   27      1.41   Maurice Cheeks 128   91
.74   Elton Brand     85  115      1.43   Bobby Jones    137   96
.74   Vince Carter    51   69      1.44   Lenny Wilkens  134   93
.73   Cliff Hagan     84  115      1.45   Walt Frazier    55   38
.72   Clyde Drexler   26   36      1.46   James Harden   142   97
.72   Manu Ginobili   44   61      1.48  Dikembe Mutombo 108   73
.70   Lamar Odom      81  115      1.60   James Worthy    69   43
.70   Walt Bellamy    80  115      1.64   Ray Allen       82   50
.69  Amare Stoudemire 79  115      1.65   Isiah Thomas    43   26
.68   Robert Parish   39   57      1.66   Yao Ming       148   89
.67   Kevin Johnson   77  115      1.66   Marc Gasol     158   95
.67  Chauncey Billups 58   87      1.67   LeBron James     5    3
.67   Tracy McGrady   42   63      1.70   Wes Unseld      90   53
.67  Shaquille O'Neal  6    9      1.80   Gail Goodrich  176   98
.66   Neil Johnston   76  115      1.80   Moses Malone    27   15
.65   Vlade Divac     75  115      1.81   Kevin McHale    56   31
.65   Bob Pettit      22   34      1.83   Larry Bird      11    6
.64   Larry Nance     74  115      1.86   Bill Russell    13    7
.63   Terry Cummings  72  115      1.96   Mark Price     184   94
.62   Paul Pierce     28   45      2.00   Steve Nash      60   30
.62   Jack Sikma      71  115      2.09   Oscar Robertson 23   11
.61   Rasheed Wallace 70  115      2.11   Chris Mullin   175   83
.61   Pau Gasol       34   56      2.14   Kevin Durant    47   22
.61   Chris Webber    40   66      2.22  Sidney Moncrief 180   81
.60   Bob Lanier      41   68      2.25   Magic Johnson    9    4
.60  Wilt Chamberlain  3    5      2.26   Kevin Love     224   99
.59   Shawn Marion    68  115      2.56   Bernard King   138   54
.57   Carlos Boozer   65  115      2.75   Willis Reed    132   48
.54   Shawn Kemp      54  100      2.90   Joe Dumars     223   77
.52   Dwight Howard   35   67      3.07   Bill Walton    129   42
.51   Artis Gilmore   36   70      3.11   Dennis Rodman  199   64
.50   Tim Duncan       4    8      3.11   David Thompson 255   82
.48   Kevin Garnett   10   21      3.27   Earl Monroe    196   60
.46   Dan Issel       53  115      3.32   Nate Archibald 252   76
.44   Karl Malone      7   16      3.46   Pete Maravich  246   71
.43   George McGinnis 49  115      5.26   Stephen Curry  121   23
.42   Dolph Schayes   31   74

The under-rated are mostly bigs, and the overrated are mostly guards; with some others of legendary status and short careers.
Haven't checked, but they may have forced their top 10 by position into the top 50, etc.

ABA vets McGinnis, Issel, and Gilmore are among the most underrated; but Erving is right up there where he should be.

Posted: **Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:11 pm**

They rank Garnett #21 and Curry #23. Garnett has about 3 times the career that Curry has had.
KG peaked and won MVP at age 27; Curry is doing the same.
Curry played college ball, rookied at age 21. If we look at their age 21-27 summaries:

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age 21-27    Min    PER    WS    ws/48  BPM   VORP
KG  '98-04  21174  24.4   85.1   .193   6.9   47.4
SC  '10-16  16251  22.8   65.7   .194   5.8   32.0

age 21-27    Min    PER   WS    ws/48  BPM   VORP
KG  playoff  1878  23.5   5.5   .140   5.9   3.8
SC  playoff  1619  22.2   6.4   .190   6.7   3.5

Garnett has since doubled his RS VORP and tripled his PO WS.

Here's the espn list by itself:

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rank                   rank   
1   Michael Jordan      11   Oscar Robertson
2   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 12   Kobe Bryant
3   LeBron James        13   Jerry West
4   Magic Johnson       14   Julius Erving
5   Wilt Chamberlain    15   Moses Malone
6   Larry Bird          16   Karl Malone
7   Bill Russell        17   Dirk Nowitzki
8   Tim Duncan          18   Charles Barkley
9   Shaquille O'Neal    19   John Stockton
10  Hakeem Olajuwon     20   David Robinson
            
rank                   rank   
21   Kevin Garnett      31   Kevin McHale
22   Kevin Durant       32   Patrick Ewing
23   Stephen Curry      33   George Mikan
24   Elgin Baylor       34   Bob Pettit
25   Scottie Pippen     35   Jason Kidd
26   Isiah Thomas       36   Clyde Drexler
27   Dwyane Wade        37   Rick Barry
28   John Havlicek      38   Walt Frazier
29   Chris Paul         39   Bob Cousy
30   Steve Nash         40   Elvin Hayes
            
rank                   rank   
41   Gary Payton        51   Reggie Miller
42   Bill Walton        52   Bob McAdoo
43   James Worthy       53   Wes Unseld
44   Dominique Wilkins  54   Bernard King
45   Paul Pierce        55   Dave Cowens
46   Allen Iverson      56   Pau Gasol
47   George Gervin      57   Robert Parish
48   Willis Reed        58   Tony Parker
49   Russell Westbrook  59   Carmelo Anthony
50   Ray Allen          60   Earl Monroe
            
rank                   rank   
61   Manu Ginobili      71   Pete Maravich
62   Alex English       72   Adrian Dantley
63   Tracy McGrady      73   Dikembe Mutombo
64   Dennis Rodman      74   Dolph Schayes
65   Alonzo Mourning    75   Blake Griffin
66   Chris Webber       76   Nate Archibald
67   Dwight Howard      77   Joe Dumars
68   Bob Lanier         78   Sam Jones
69   Vince Carter       79   Jerry Lucas
70   Artis Gilmore      80   Grant Hill
            
rank                   rank   
81   Sidney Moncrief    91   Maurice Cheeks
82   David Thompson     92   Nate Thurmond
83   Chris Mullin       93   Lenny Wilkens
84   Dennis Johnson     94   Mark Price
85   Dave DeBusschere   95   Marc Gasol
86   Chris Bosh         96   Bobby Jones
87   Chauncey Billups   97   James Harden
88   Billy Cunningham   98   Gail Goodrich
89   Yao Ming           99   Kevin Love
90   Paul Arizin       100   Shawn Kemp

Posted: **Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:26 pm**

Ray Allen #50, Reggie Miller #51
They are #1-2 in 3-pointers, regular season and playoffs.
Among the top 100 in minutes, they're 3-4 in FT% (after Nash and Billups)
In eFG%, they rank 9th (Reg) and 16th (Ray). Reggie is 2nd in TS%, Ray 16th

http://bkref.com/tiny/C1Gyw
Reggie had 47,619 RS minutes, Ray 46,344

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RS     TS%  TRb%   Ast%   Stl%  Blk%   TO%   Usg%
Reg   .614   5.1   14.4   1.6   0.4   10.5   21.6
Ray   .580   6.8   16.5   1.7   0.4   11.4   23.8

RS     PER   ORtg  DRtg   WS    WS/48  BPM   VORP
Reg   18.4   121   109   174.4  .176   3.3   63.2
Ray   18.6   114   108   145.1  .150   3.0   58.1 


PO     TS%  TRb%   Ast%   Stl%  Blk%   TO%   Usg%
Reg   .601   4.7   13.1   1.5   0.5    9.4   24.3
Ray   .585   6.5   13.3   1.5   0.6   10.5   20.6

PO     PER   ORtg  DRtg   WS    WS/48  BPM  VORP
Reg   19.5   119   108   19.9   .180   4.3   8.4
Ray   16.3   115   108   18.0   .143   3.5   8.5

In playoffs, Ray compiled more minutes, 6064 to 5308

Whether we count playoffs heavily or not at all: how can Ray Allen have a career equal to Reggie Miller?
Both players went 18 seasons. Ray got 2 rings, none for Reggie. But Ray got rings as the 3rd-4th best player on the team. Check the playoff stats for those squads, and he ranks lower.

There's an argument that a player's peak is more important than his consistency over time. Ray had the one super season, 2001: His 13.7 Win Shares and 6.0 VORP are above any RS Reggie ever had. But Reggie kicks ass in WS generally; he owns the next 3 best between them, an 11-5 lead in WS>10 seasons.

Moving over to BPM, it's more even. Somehow, my perception was always that Ray was more versatile; BPM rewards versatility; yet somehow Reggie comes out on top here, too.
How do we define "peak"? Best season? Best 5 year interval?

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1 year          3 year          5 year
Ray   6.0      Ray   14.2      Ray   21.9
Reg   5.2      Ray   13.9      Reg   21.9
Reg   4.6      Reg   13.7      Reg   21.9
Reg   4.5      Reg   13.5      Reg   21.9
Ray   4.4      Reg   13.4      Reg   21.6

Reg   4.4      Ray   13.3      Ray   21.5
Reg   4.4      Reg   12.9      Ray   21.4
Ray   4.3      Reg   12.8      Reg   21.4
Reg   4.3      Reg   12.7      Reg   21.2
Ray   4.2      Reg   12.5      Reg   21.1

At 5-year VORP, Ray with one of the top 4 between them. At longer intervals, Reggie dominates more.
And this is RS. If we move to PO, it's a massacre.

Posted: **Sun Feb 21, 2016 6:03 pm**

I really think it's the 2 rings - even though Ray wasn't anywhere close to THE guy when the rings were won - that gets Ray the nod over Reggie in this poll. If neither had rings - I'd be about certain Reggie would probably rank 20 spots or more ahead of Ray.

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