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Based on the discussion in the Hinkie thread, I wanted to get some more thoughts on this. Basically, I want to know (and know what others think) - how much of a difference a good/great GM can have on a team.

I truly have no idea not only what the correct answer is, but also how other people view this issue; so please, every additional response will be extremely helpful.

1) What is the correlation between General Manager skill and outcome?
Aka how much do you attribute to skill and how much do you attribute to luck? Is it 50-50 or closer to 75% skill - 25% luck?


2) If Bob Myers (who ESPN reported in their last GM ranking as the 2nd best GM in the league) became GM of the Chicago Bulls this offseason, what would you put the odds (out of 100%) of them being a championship contender in the 2020-2021 NBA Season at? Additionally, in the 2020-2021 season, what do you put the odds of them being at .500 or above?
(assume that roughly 4 teams every season are legit contenders, and roughly 16 teams are at .500 or above)



3) If Bryan Colangelo became GM of the Chicago Bulls this offseason, what would you put the odds (out of 100%) of them being a championship contender in the 2020-2021 NBA Season at? Additionally, in the 2020-2021 season, what do you put the odds of them being at .500 or above?


4) If Dell Demps became GM of the Chicago Bulls this offseason, what would you put the odds (out of 100%) of them being a championship contender in the 2020-2021 NBA Season at? Additionally, in the 2020-2021 season, what do you put the odds of them being at .500 or above?


5) In your opinion, what three potential GMs (they can be current GMs ie. RC Buford or anyone else IE Mike Zarren) do you think would think would increase a teams chances of becoming a contender the most - and what are those odds?


I welcome any thoughts and comments you have, but can you please answer the question(!!!!) so I can get a better understanding of what numbers people actually attribute to different types of GMs.

Thank you so much for your participation!

To get things going, I'll give my crude estimates:

1) I really have no idea - averaged across the whole NBA, maybe 55% of outcome can be explained by skill and 45% by luck?
2) If there are 4 contending teams, that gives the Bulls a 13.3% chance of being one of them if everything is explained by luck. In light of the fact that some teams are in a better position than the bulls to succeed right now, I think that 100% luck would put his chances at around 10% I don't think Myers is so amazing, but still likely above average, so I'll put the odds at 13%. I give the odds of his team being .500+ at 60%
3) 10% chance at being a contender, and 50% at being .500+
4) 5% chance at being a contender, and a 35% chance at being .500+
5) As a general rule, I avoid using Pop/Buford in any basketball related example, because I don't think anybody truly understands how they're so good.
My top three would be Sam Hinkie number 1 (22%), Darly Morey number 2 (20%) and Eli Witus number 3 (20%). I put their odds of making the playoffs at 80%-80%-80%.

On skill vs. luck, I think luck is the junior partner by at least a moderate amount, probably more. I am guessing that the % of meaningful players or coaches that vary from expectations by more than 20% in a coming year isn't that high. Draft picks is the area of least skill, most luck but draftees usually don't matter that much for a title until 4-7 years in or more and I stop considering them a draft pick after 3-4 years when you sign the second contract.

Using regular season win totals as a guide, the Bulls probably only had more than a 10% chance at a title once in the last 5 years. If Gasol walks (60 plus % chance?) and Rose doesn't dramatically improve (70 plus chance he doesn't?), then my baseline estimate for Bulls before considering GM is almost no chance at a title in next 2 years. 2%, 5% or 10% chance might return in year 3-5 if they have some major acquisition success but J. Butler and ? is probably an average base at best, not elevated for contenders. You'd have to find a new #1 to have much shot. That could be done by free agency. Little chance by trade and almost none that the draft brings that guy and a title within 5 years. I dunno the right numbers but I'd probably give Myers twice or more lead over Bryan Colangelo or Gar Foreman / Jim Paxson as you and I'd give Dell Demps almost no chance of a title on that team for 5 years.

Morey, I wrote something awhile ago that in modern times if you haven't won a title in first 8-10 years it almost never happens. Assistant GMs, I wouldn't estimate their strength above average. It might be but I don't feel I have anything close to enough knowledge to predict high ahead of time. Hinkie, I dunno... I might put about 9-12th. Behind 5 of the title winners and 2 with finals appearances, at least, at the moment. Hinkie might rate a few higher or lower if there was a longer record. I leaped him based on clear plan and smarts over everyone average or below. That might have been a bit generous.

Thanks Crow for the response.

I would really appreciate additional perspectives on this.

Anyone else care to share their opinion?
It would be greatly appreciated.

Pretty hard to get discussions going here, especially on off-season topics. If you really want replies, have you asked on twitter? Many previous commenters here have nearly completely or completely given up commenting here in favor of twitter. I dislike the overly tight parameters of that medium and find it pretty difficult to get a conversation there past a few brief back n forths. But that path / output may be the more likely these days, if you think it is worth it.

Relative importance of GM skill to Head Coach skill is an interesting topic to me. By pay levels it seems like Head Coaches are valued more, by a factor of what 2, 3 or maybe more on average? My gut says GM skill matters a lot, probably a lot more than reflected in GM pay variations outside a few highly paid and more than the presumed large gap between Head Coach pay (where it is now and where it may be going) and GM pay (though there it little info on that and any recent trends).