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Gaining the advantage with the NBA's forgotten play
Posted: Mon May 16, 2016 10:49 am
by watto84
Hi All,
Latest post is up where I look into a forgotten and unloved possession in today's NBA and how teams can take advantage of it.
Check it out out
www.zigzaganalytics.com
Re: Gaining the advantage with the NBA's forgotten play
Posted: Mon May 16, 2016 6:32 pm
by Crow
Team with end of first quarter lead wins 60 plus %...
How often does the favored to win game team lead after one quarter?
How often does game winner win 1st tip?
If you ran a multi-variable regression, how important would being the favored team be relative to winning first tip or first quarter or being the home team or anything else?
Re: Gaining the advantage with the NBA's forgotten play
Posted: Thu May 19, 2016 12:34 am
by watto84
1 stat i can add is, the team who wins the opening tip and scored on the play has a 61% chance of winning the 1st qtr.
If the team makes a 3 off the jump ball they have a 70% of winning the 1st qtr.
Re: Gaining the advantage with the NBA's forgotten play
Posted: Thu May 19, 2016 11:39 am
by Mike G
Something screwy happened with that % of possessions won from initial jump ball chart.
The league avg is shown as 44.8%, implying nobody gains the 1st poss 1/10 of the time.
Re: Gaining the advantage with the NBA's forgotten play
Posted: Thu May 19, 2016 9:47 pm
by watto84
hmmm i see what you are saying.....in any given game, a team is going to win the jump ball which means 50% of the time a league team will win the jump.
The league average as i have calculated it, is an average of all of the other team averages in the table.
Should have either re-labeled the "league average field" or just not have included it to save the confusion.
The team numbers themselves are still correct.