APBRmetrics

Posted: **Thu May 19, 2016 9:05 pm**

Can anyone figure out how Durant has a 0.0 BPM in these playoffs? He has decent numbers. He is doing well in the category that BPM loves: Usage, Rebounding x Assists, Team success (Thunder over 10 SRS in the playoffs), 3 point rate, 40 minutes per game. Are steals that important in the formula that they are killing him because of his low steals total?

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GS	MP	    FG	FGA	FG%	   3P%	FT%	   ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PTS
13	39.8	9.6	22.1	0.436	0.289	0.866	0.7	6.1	6.8	3.4	0.8	0.5	4.1	27.4

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MP	PER	   TS%	3PAr	FTr	  ORB% DRB%   TRB%	 AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%  WS/48 OBPM DBPM	BPM	VORP
518	18.8	0.54	0.265	0.338	2	17.1	9.8	15.5	1	1	13.8	32.9	0.095	-0.1	0.1	0	0.3

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nke01.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/2016.html

Posted: **Thu May 19, 2016 11:10 pm**

Having archived the b-r.com tables at the end of each round, I derive these rates for each series:

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Durant   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     WS   vorp  eWins
vs Dal   191   16.4   .109  -3.8   1.54    .43   -.09    .61
vs SAS   246   22.4   .155   4.5   1.81    .80    .40    .93
vs GSW    81   13.4  -.121  -4.9    .85   -.20   -.06    .14

13 G     518   18.8   .095    .0   1.56   1.03    .26   1.68

In round 1, only Randy Foye had a lower BPM on the team (-4.2), among players w >10 min.
They had very similar Reb, Ast, TO, Blk rates. Foye had 0 Stl, shot .344, 5 pts/36. Durant w 25 pts/36.

Durant's high volume of shots with only .476 efficiency was about .100 lower than OKC TS%, but just .027 worse than what the Mavs shot.

He's now shooting less and a bit better at .509, just below the team mark, in the WCF. His turnovers are atrocious, at 6.3/36 min; just 4 Ast in 81 min.
Only Westbrook has been better in 2 games, according to eWins.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2016 10:54 am**

Also worth noting, the Mavs' aggregate player BPM was -2.3 in rd 1, so Durant's numbers alone would give a better BPM by just that amount, I presume. Thus -1.5, rather than -3.8
The Spurs played at +2.6, so his numbers alone (vs an avg team) would produce a lower BPM for that series: +1.9, rather than 4.5

The GSW have been 4.8 and 1.9 in their series, so Durant's -4.9 in gms 1-2 would look even worse without that adjustment.

BPM = 0 indicates an average player. Durant's WS/48 is just below avg at .095

Thunder over 10 SRS in the playoffs

Did you just add opponents' season SRS to their MOV in playoffs? Or do you find this 'adjusted' SRS someplace? Their MOV is only about +5.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2016 2:18 pm**

Mike G wrote:
Thunder over 10 SRS in the playoffs
Did you just add opponents' season SRS to their MOV in playoffs? Or do you find this 'adjusted' SRS someplace? Their MOV is only about +5.

I'm using Dsmok's methodology. Their average opponent in the playoffs has been over +5 so you adjust their playoff MOV with opponent Regular season SRS.

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Kevin Durant has a 0.0 BPM in the playoffs?

Kevin Durant has a 0.0 BPM in the playoffs?

Re: Kevin Durant has a 0.0 BPM in the playoffs?

Re: Kevin Durant has a 0.0 BPM in the playoffs?

Re: Kevin Durant has a 0.0 BPM in the playoffs?