Minutes, Contracts, Questions
Posted: Thu May 26, 2016 7:57 am
Has anyone looked at NBA minute distribution over recent years (under current CBA and perhaps last one) by contract status (rookie contract / vet; vet on second deal or later)? Wonder how it changes next season and beyond. Rookie deals should become even better deals but do they end up getting larger minute share?
More stashing to compete in free agent frenzy or less to fill out slots instead of FA frenzy or after frenzy? Does ability to fill out roster / rotation with free agents get helped or hurt by the influx of larger amounts of new money and greater competition? Are there distinctly different trends for good now teams vs. weak? Does the % of RFAs retained go down? Does their minute share go up or down on average? Is there a grand or growing more grand divide between pay / minutes of RFAs retained and those that move? Do more international players move in, accepting similar pay / value ratios or lower ones? Does money chases of the best players actually cause the share of money devoted to bottom 25, 50 or 75% of player (by pay or performance) to decline compared to the past? Should it? Is money disproportionately going to chase perimeters or bigs? Will it chase offense more, same as always, less or more than defense? Will teams overdo spending this summer and have relatively less in next few summers? Who plays this free agent market best / worst? Will the best teams use it relatively more than they have in past, in part to avoid others catching up or will they determine to use it even less, even if that hurts in immediate term? Will more support players (3rd - 8th guy) who get paid well, play big minutes even if they aren't performing well because of their pay / standing because of that pay level compared to rest of lesser / much lesser paid bench?
Will more guys go to Europe or China to get minutes with the hopes of slingshotting back into a big buck NBA deal instead of accepting the purgatory of low end NBA pay and minutes long term? How will the competition between the stars / well paid middleclass and rest of played go compared to past? How much will vet minimums go up in general and by year? How more will GM contract behavior change with that change or in anticipation of that change? There will be more incentive for played to try to stick around longer. Will that encourage more effort to maintain / improve performance by even more offseason work, use of analytics, listening to coaches / GMs, attention to non-box score impacts (measured by RPM and / perceived by eyes)? How will that interface with the grater desire of teams to pay relatively cheap where they can in the face of a probable escalation of pay for the somewhat talented / impactful middle class? Do the max tiers by years of service make sense? Do teams really want second and third tier max deals? May be greater desire to rely mostly on first tier maxes but which teams have the guts to let 2nd and especially third tie max guys go or bargain them down from their max to something more in line with their lower tier max alternatives?
Will the middleclass support players be more likely to buck their assigned role for more stats and more money or will better paid support players be content with the greater money and stay in their lane to keep that level of gravy train going? Will the growing NBA media complex support more players as off the court celebrities / businessmen or is that number already maxed out and saturated with unsuccessful "fame" wannabes? Is it less important to be on a big market team going forward in general or mainly just less important on second or third contract? Does the visibility of being on big market team for first contract affect second and third contract opportunities enough to make agent draft jockeying more common? Will more reject multi-yr second round and undrafted rookie contracts in hopes to quicker access to the big bucks? Will players / agents get more minute considerations / promises in exchange for talking small first multi-yr deals? Will teams give analytically sound bonuses and penalties for 3pt ability or will they overpay or under-penalize for attempts, fg% or both? Will good and bad teams move closer to 7-8 man rotations or closer to 10-11 man rotations? Will it get harder or easier to get 3,4,5 yr deals or some of both? Options would seem mor valuable to both sides. Who gets more of them? Does the trade price for taking salary dumps go up to feed free agent lust or will most GMs tolerate 1-2 bad deals more when they have more cap to work with?
Lots to think about.
More stashing to compete in free agent frenzy or less to fill out slots instead of FA frenzy or after frenzy? Does ability to fill out roster / rotation with free agents get helped or hurt by the influx of larger amounts of new money and greater competition? Are there distinctly different trends for good now teams vs. weak? Does the % of RFAs retained go down? Does their minute share go up or down on average? Is there a grand or growing more grand divide between pay / minutes of RFAs retained and those that move? Do more international players move in, accepting similar pay / value ratios or lower ones? Does money chases of the best players actually cause the share of money devoted to bottom 25, 50 or 75% of player (by pay or performance) to decline compared to the past? Should it? Is money disproportionately going to chase perimeters or bigs? Will it chase offense more, same as always, less or more than defense? Will teams overdo spending this summer and have relatively less in next few summers? Who plays this free agent market best / worst? Will the best teams use it relatively more than they have in past, in part to avoid others catching up or will they determine to use it even less, even if that hurts in immediate term? Will more support players (3rd - 8th guy) who get paid well, play big minutes even if they aren't performing well because of their pay / standing because of that pay level compared to rest of lesser / much lesser paid bench?
Will more guys go to Europe or China to get minutes with the hopes of slingshotting back into a big buck NBA deal instead of accepting the purgatory of low end NBA pay and minutes long term? How will the competition between the stars / well paid middleclass and rest of played go compared to past? How much will vet minimums go up in general and by year? How more will GM contract behavior change with that change or in anticipation of that change? There will be more incentive for played to try to stick around longer. Will that encourage more effort to maintain / improve performance by even more offseason work, use of analytics, listening to coaches / GMs, attention to non-box score impacts (measured by RPM and / perceived by eyes)? How will that interface with the grater desire of teams to pay relatively cheap where they can in the face of a probable escalation of pay for the somewhat talented / impactful middle class? Do the max tiers by years of service make sense? Do teams really want second and third tier max deals? May be greater desire to rely mostly on first tier maxes but which teams have the guts to let 2nd and especially third tie max guys go or bargain them down from their max to something more in line with their lower tier max alternatives?
Will the middleclass support players be more likely to buck their assigned role for more stats and more money or will better paid support players be content with the greater money and stay in their lane to keep that level of gravy train going? Will the growing NBA media complex support more players as off the court celebrities / businessmen or is that number already maxed out and saturated with unsuccessful "fame" wannabes? Is it less important to be on a big market team going forward in general or mainly just less important on second or third contract? Does the visibility of being on big market team for first contract affect second and third contract opportunities enough to make agent draft jockeying more common? Will more reject multi-yr second round and undrafted rookie contracts in hopes to quicker access to the big bucks? Will players / agents get more minute considerations / promises in exchange for talking small first multi-yr deals? Will teams give analytically sound bonuses and penalties for 3pt ability or will they overpay or under-penalize for attempts, fg% or both? Will good and bad teams move closer to 7-8 man rotations or closer to 10-11 man rotations? Will it get harder or easier to get 3,4,5 yr deals or some of both? Options would seem mor valuable to both sides. Who gets more of them? Does the trade price for taking salary dumps go up to feed free agent lust or will most GMs tolerate 1-2 bad deals more when they have more cap to work with?
Lots to think about.