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The Dredge metric and a call for new wave metric comparison

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:24 am
by Crow
http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/07/26/int ... ed-metric/

I think it would be great if the producers of new wave metrics discussed how their metrics weight certain things similarly or differently and include / exclude things compared to the others. Someone beyond that set could do so also but it would be interesting to see the principals converse. By new wave metrics I mean pretty comprehensive metrics (attempting to cover much or all of basketball activity) in recent years, after PER, Winshares, Wins Produced and the metrics that preceded them. So that would include BPM, RPM, DRE, PT-PM, EZPM, EWins, IPV, AAV?, VORP? and others. And now Dredge. I am especially hopeful that there is dialogue about Dredge and PT-PM. How much dialogue has there been already? What of it will you share with us?

PT-PM uses player tracking data on at the rim defense and overall shot defense includes in RPM / RAPM. Dredge uses more details or at least more "tuned" details but without RPM / RAPM. Right? If you tried to isolate the shot defense component onto itself, what exactly each use and what numbers do each produce for the same players? How do total defense impact estimates for these metrics compare to the same for metrics with no attempt at shot defense impacts estimates or the use of crude team level shot defense estimates (overall with and without a player on the floor as is the case for BPM, Winshares and others or just with the player like DRPM especially broken out to 4 factor level for shot defense by itself and EZPM)? Conceivably a metric producer with no shot defense element or a poor one could add that element from PT-PM or Dredge, if either or both of these metrics (and RPM) isolated their estimates for shot defense and made it available. It would sort of be helping the competition. But they need it. Do they want it? In some or many cases maybe not but if they refuse this help it is a bit more damning perhaps imo.

Re: The Dredge metric and a call for new wave metric compari

Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:28 pm
by Crow
2016 values, rounded a lot to a level of precision that is still overdone:

Team Player Measure Values
GSW Stephen Curry 7.7
SAS Kawhi Leonard 7.0
OKC Kevin Durant 6.4
TOR Kyle Lowry 5.7
CLE LeBron James 5.0
LAC Chris Paul 4.5
GSW Draymond Green 4.5
OKC Russell Westbrook 3.9
HOU James Harden 3.9
ATL Paul Millsap 3.8
CHO Kemba Walker 3.4
SAC DeMarcus Cousins 3.2
CHI Jimmy Butler 3.2
NOP Anthony Davis 3.2
IND Paul George 3.1
LAC DeAndre Jordan 3.0
CLE Kevin Love 2.9
ATL Al Horford 2.7
POR Damian Lillard 2.6
UTA Rudy Gobert 2.6
SAS Tim Duncan 2.5
SAS Manu Ginobili 2.4
DEN Nikola Jokic 2.4
UTA Gordon Hayward 2.3
SAS LaMarcus Aldridge 2.2
UTA Derrick Favors 2.2
MIA Hassan Whiteside 2.1
MEM Mario Chalmers 2.1
CHO Marvin Williams 2.1
SAS Danny Green 2.1
MIA Chris Bosh 2.1
MIN Ricky Rubio 2.1
SAS David West 2.0
DEN Danilo Gallinari 2.0
BOS Jae Crowder 2.0
TOT Mario Chalmers 1.9
GSW Klay Thompson 1.9
MEM Mike Conley 1.9
PHO Eric Bledsoe 1.9
WAS John Wall 1.8
MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo 1.7
ORL Victor Oladipo 1.7
CHI Pau Gasol 1.7
WAS Marcin Gortat 1.6
TOR DeMar DeRozan 1.6
MEM Marc Gasol 1.6
BOS Marcus Smart 1.6
MIN Karl-Anthony Towns 1.6
GSW Andrew Bogut 1.5
SAS Kyle Anderson 1.5
BOS Isaiah Thomas 1.4
CLE Kyrie Irving 1.4
CLE J.R. Smith 1.4
SAS Patrick Mills 1.4
CHO Nicolas Batum 1.3
POR Ed Davis 1.3
MIN Gorgui Dieng 1.3
DET Ersan Ilyasova 1.3
DAL Dirk Nowitzki 1.3
HOU Patrick Beverley 1.3
BOS Amir Johnson 1.3
TOR Jonas Valanciunas 1.3
POR Mason Plumlee 1.3
IND George Hill 1.2
OKC Steven Adams 1.2
LAC J.J. Redick 1.2
MIA Luol Deng 1.2
LAC Blake Griffin 1.2
NYK Carmelo Anthony 1.2
WAS Otto Porter 1.1
LAC Cole Aldrich 1.1
ATL Kent Bazemore 1.1
GSW Andre Iguodala 1.0
BRK Brook Lopez 1.0
IND Ian Mahinmi 1.0
IND Monta Ellis 1.0
TOT Ersan Ilyasova 0.9
HOU Trevor Ariza 0.9
MIL Greg Monroe 0.9
NOP Jrue Holiday 0.9
POR C.J. McCollum 0.8
MIA Goran Dragic 0.8
DAL Chandler Parsons 0.8
DET Tobias Harris 0.8
HOU Dwight Howard 0.8
UTA Rodney Hood 0.8
DET Marcus Morris 0.8
BOS Kelly Olynyk 0.8
ORL Aaron Gordon 0.8
SAC Rajon Rondo 0.8
SAS Rasual Butler 0.8
CHI Taj Gibson 0.8
DET Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 0.8
WAS Nene Hilario 0.7
CHI Nikola Mirotic 0.7
POR Al-Farouq Aminu 0.7
DET Andre Drummond 0.7
SAS Tony Parker 0.6
DET Reggie Jackson 0.6
MIA Dwyane Wade 0.6
OKC Serge Ibaka 0.6
GSW Shaun Livingston 0.6
CHO Jeremy Lin 0.5
TOT Tobias Harris 0.5
SAS Boban Marjanovic 0.5
UTA Trevor Booker 0.4
ORL Nikola Vucevic 0.4
MIL Khris Middleton 0.4
WAS Jared Dudley 0.4
ATL Jeff Teague 0.3
NOP Tyreke Evans 0.3
ATL Thabo Sefolosha 0.3
TOR Patrick Patterson 0.3
BOS Jared Sullinger 0.3
DAL Zaza Pachulia 0.3
TOR DeMarre Carroll 0.3
ORL Tobias Harris 0.3
DAL Devin Harris 0.3
DEN Will Barton 0.3
SAS Boris Diaw 0.3
DEN Kenneth Faried 0.3
CLE Tristan Thompson 0.3
PHI Nerlens Noel 0.2
CHO Cody Zeller 0.2
NYK Kristaps Porzingis 0.2
OKC Enes Kanter 0.2
DAL Wesley Matthews 0.2
ORL Evan Fournier 0.2
OKC Andre Roberson 0.2
MIL Michael Carter-Williams 0.2
BRK Thaddeus Young 0.2
NOP Ryan Anderson 0.2
SAC Rudy Gay 0.1
CLE Iman Shumpert 0.1
NOP Toney Douglas 0.1
DAL Deron Williams 0.1
PHO Ronnie Price 0.1
PHO P.J. Tucker 0.1
MIA Tyler Johnson 0.1
MEM Matt Barnes 0.1
CLE Matthew Dellavedova 0.1
CLE Channing Frye 0.1
NYK Robin Lopez 0.0
DET Anthony Tolliver 0.0
LAC Wesley Johnson 0.0
TOR Cory Joseph 0.0
TOR Terrence Ross 0.0
SAC Darren Collison 0.0
TOR Luis Scola 0.0
NYK Jose Calderon 0.0
OKC D.J. Augustin -0.1
SAC Omri Casspi -0.1
BOS Avery Bradley -0.1
LAL Lou Williams -0.1
LAC Pablo Prigioni -0.1
IND C.J. Miles -0.1
TOR James Johnson -0.2
GSW Harrison Barnes -0.2
DEN Gary Harris -0.2
NOP Eric Gordon -0.2
TOT Channing Frye -0.2
MIA Josh Richardson -0.3
GSW Marreese Speights -0.3
OKC Cameron Payne -0.3
GSW Festus Ezeli -0.3
BOS Evan Turner -0.3
MIA Mario Chalmers -0.3
PHI Jerami Grant -0.3
WAS Bradley Beal -0.4
OKC Nick Collison -0.4
UTA Jeff Withey -0.4
ORL Ersan Ilyasova -0.4
PHO Brandon Knight -0.4
ORL Channing Frye -0.4
CHI Joakim Noah -0.4
HOU Clint Capela -0.4
DET Aron Baynes -0.4
ATL Kyle Korver -0.4
MEM Tony Allen -0.5
CHO Jeremy Lamb -0.5
TOR Jason Thompson -0.5
OKC Dion Waiters -0.5
PHI Robert Covington -0.5
NYK Langston Galloway -0.5
MIA Amar'e Stoudemire -0.5
WAS Garrett Temple -0.5
CLE Anderson Varejao -0.5
TOT D.J. Augustin -0.6
LAC Jeff Green -0.6
LAL Brandon Bass -0.6
TOT Jason Thompson -0.6
DET Brandon Jennings -0.6
BRK Rondae Hollis-Jefferson -0.6
UTA Joe Ingles -0.6
MIN Kevin Garnett -0.6
MEM Jordan Farmar -0.6
PHO Mirza Teletovic -0.6
TOR Bismack Biyombo -0.6
DEN Darrell Arthur -0.6
TOT Anderson Varejao -0.6
MEM Courtney Lee -0.6
LAC Josh Smith -0.7
TOR Norman Powell -0.7
ORL Elfrid Payton -0.7
CHO Al Jefferson -0.7
TOT Courtney Lee -0.7
UTA Alec Burks -0.7
POR Allen Crabbe -0.7
PHO Tyson Chandler -0.8
GSW Jason Thompson -0.8
MEM Vince Carter -0.8
DAL Dwight Powell -0.8
BOS David Lee -0.8
GSW Anderson Varejao -0.8
NYK Kyle O'Quinn -0.8
CHO Spencer Hawes -0.8
CLE Richard Jefferson -0.8
CHO Courtney Lee -0.8
TOT Jeff Green -0.9
MIA Joe Johnson -0.9
LAC Jamal Crawford -0.9
TOT David Lee -0.9
OKC Randy Foye -0.9
MIA Josh McRoberts -0.9
DAL Raymond Felton -0.9
NOP James Ennis -0.9
CLE Dahntay Jones -0.9
CLE James Jones -0.9
DAL David Lee -0.9
DEN Jusuf Nurkic -0.9
BRK Shane Larkin -0.9
LAC Lance Stephenson -0.9
TOT Brandon Jennings -0.9
BRK Jarrett Jack -0.9
SAS Matt Bonner -0.9
POR Maurice Harkless -0.9
DEN D.J. Augustin -1.0
MIL Jerryd Bayless -1.0
TOT James Ennis -1.0
MIA Udonis Haslem -1.0
MEM Briante Weber -1.0
MEM Jeff Green -1.0
TOT Briante Weber -1.0
MEM Chris Andersen -1.0
LAC C.J. Wilcox -1.0
SAC Willie Cauley-Stein -1.0
NOP Ish Smith -1.0
TOR Delon Wright -1.0
TOT Chris Andersen -1.0
SAS Ray McCallum -1.0
UTA Elijah Millsap -1.0
UTA Raul Neto -1.0
DAL Jose Barea -1.1
SAS Andre Miller -1.1
TOT Josh Smith -1.1
DET Reggie Bullock -1.1
IND Solomon Hill -1.1
PHO Jon Leuer -1.1
ATL Mike Scott -1.1
DEN Jameer Nelson -1.1
CHI Cristiano Felicio -1.1
DET Steve Blake -1.1
TOR Lucas Nogueira -1.1
MIA Justise Winslow -1.1
POR Gerald Henderson -1.1
OKC Anthony Morrow -1.1
IND Rodney Stuckey -1.1
NYK Sasha Vujacic -1.1
BRK Willie Reed -1.1
WAS Ramon Sessions -1.1
MIN Andrew Wiggins -1.1
SAC Quincy Acy -1.1
POR Meyers Leonard -1.2
GSW Leandro Barbosa -1.2
CHO Frank Kaminsky -1.2
CHI Justin Holiday -1.2
UTA Chris Johnson -1.2
MEM Zach Randolph -1.2
GSW James Michael McAdoo -1.2
TOT Lance Stephenson -1.2
WAS Markieff Morris -1.2
DET Spencer Dinwiddie -1.2
MIL John Henson -1.2
POR Tim Frazier -1.2
LAC Austin Rivers -1.2
ORL Brandon Jennings -1.2
TOT Justin Holiday -1.2
SAS Kevin Martin -1.2
ATL Mike Muscala -1.2
TOT Tim Frazier -1.2
MIN Nemanja Bjelica -1.3
CLE Mo Williams -1.3
NOP Tim Frazier -1.3
NOP Jordan Hamilton -1.3
ORL Jason Smith -1.3
MEM Xavier Munford -1.3
TOT Markieff Morris -1.3
GSW Brandon Rush -1.3
MIA Chris Andersen -1.3
CHO Tyler Hansbrough -1.3
MEM Brandan Wright -1.3
ATL Justin Holiday -1.3
BOS Jonas Jerebko -1.4
SAC Kosta Koufos -1.4
BRK Chris McCullough -1.4
IND Jordan Hill -1.4
ATL Dennis Schroder -1.4
WAS Kris Humphries -1.4
CHI Mike Dunleavy -1.4
ATL Tiago Splitter -1.4
CHI E'Twaun Moore -1.4
LAC Alex Stepheson -1.4
LAC Paul Pierce -1.4
DAL Justin Anderson -1.4
MEM Russ Smith -1.4
PHO Markieff Morris -1.4
WAS Marcus Thornton -1.4
PHO Alan Williams -1.4
TOT Ray McCallum -1.4
TOT Joe Johnson -1.4
MIA James Ennis -1.4
CLE Joe Harris -1.4
TOT Kris Humphries -1.4
PHO T.J. Warren -1.5
GSW Kevon Looney -1.5
MEM James Ennis -1.5
MEM Lance Stephenson -1.5
SAC Seth Curry -1.5
SAS Jonathon Simmons -1.5
MIA Briante Weber -1.5
OKC Steve Novak -1.5
MEM Jordan Adams -1.5
NOP Bryce Dejean-Jones -1.5
HOU Corey Brewer -1.5
CLE Jordan McRae -1.5
MIA Jarnell Stokes -1.5
HOU Josh Smith -1.5
UTA J.J. O'Brien -1.5
ATL Kris Humphries -1.5
NOP Alonzo Gee -1.5
TOT Jarnell Stokes -1.5
UTA Erick Green -1.5
HOU Andrew Goudelock -1.5
CLE Sasha Kaun -1.5
TOR Anthony Bennett -1.5
TOT Alex Stepheson -1.5
WAS Alan Anderson -1.5
TOT Erick Green -1.5
WAS Jarell Eddie -1.5
TOT Randy Foye -1.5
MEM Alex Stepheson -1.5
OKC Kyle Singler -1.6
CLE Jared Cunningham -1.6
MIN Zach LaVine -1.6
GSW Ian Clark -1.6
DET Jodie Meeks -1.6
TOR Bruno Caboclo -1.6
BOS Jordan Mickey -1.6
UTA Shelvin Mack -1.6
MEM Jarnell Stokes -1.6
DET Joel Anthony -1.6
MIA Gerald Green -1.6
NOP Dante Cunningham -1.6
ATL Tim Hardaway -1.6
LAL Roy Hibbert -1.6
SAC Duje Dukan -1.6
WAS Drew Gooden -1.6
OKC Nazr Mohammed -1.6
LAC Branden Dawson -1.6
TOT Shelvin Mack -1.6
TOT Jared Cunningham -1.6
OKC Josh Huestis -1.6
CHO Michael Kidd-Gilchrist -1.7
ATL Kirk Hinrich -1.7
MEM JaMychal Green -1.7
MEM Bryce Cotton -1.7
UTA Trey Burke -1.7
SAC Caron Butler -1.7
WAS Gary Neal -1.7
ORL C.J. Watson -1.7
IND Shayne Whittington -1.7
NOP Luke Babbitt -1.7
CHI Aaron Brooks -1.7
BRK Joe Johnson -1.7
DEN Erick Green -1.7
DET Justin Harper -1.7
BOS Coty Clarke -1.7
TOT Jordan McRae -1.7
HOU Sam Dekker -1.7
IND Rakeem Christmas -1.7
DEN Mike Miller -1.7
WAS J.J. Hickson -1.7
OKC Mitch McGary -1.7
NOP Nate Robinson -1.7
CHI Cameron Bairstow -1.7
ATL Walter Tavares -1.7
HOU Donatas Motiejunas -1.7
PHO Phil Pressey -1.7
TOT Marcus Thornton -1.7
WAS Ryan Hollins -1.7
IND Lavoy Allen -1.7
IND Chase Budinger -1.7
TOT Steve Novak -1.7
NYK Arron Afflalo -1.8
IND Ty Lawson -1.8
CHO Aaron Harrison -1.8
PHO Kris Humphries -1.8
BRK Markel Brown -1.8
NOP Jimmer Fredette -1.8
TOT Ish Smith -1.8
LAL Metta World Peace -1.8
LAL Jordan Clarkson -1.8
TOT Chase Budinger -1.8
DEN Sean Kilpatrick -1.8
PHI Elton Brand -1.8
TOT Jimmer Fredette -1.8
BRK Donald Sloan -1.8
CHO Jorge Gutierrez -1.8
MEM Elliot Williams -1.8
TOT Kirk Hinrich -1.8
POR Brian Roberts -1.8
POR Cliff Alexander -1.8
DEN Joffrey Lauvergne -1.8
HOU Marcus Thornton -1.8
CLE Timofey Mozgov -1.8
NYK Jimmer Fredette -1.8
CHI Kirk Hinrich -1.8
NYK Thanasis Antetokounmpo -1.8
TOT J.J. Hickson -1.8
TOT Andre Miller -1.8
NOP Orlando Johnson -1.8
ATL Shelvin Mack -1.8
WAS DeJuan Blair -1.9
MIL O.J. Mayo -1.9
MIN Tyus Jones -1.9
BRK Henry Sims -1.9
DEN J.J. Hickson -1.9
ORL Devyn Marble -1.9
PHO Lorenzo Brown -1.9
DEN Randy Foye -1.9
LAC Jeff Ayres -1.9
TOT Orlando Johnson -1.9
MEM Ray McCallum -1.9
ORL Dewayne Dedmon -1.9
IND Glenn Robinson -1.9
PHO Chase Budinger -1.9
HOU Michael Beasley -1.9
PHI Carl Landry -1.9
PHI T.J. McConnell -1.9
UTA Trey Lyles -1.9
DEN Axel Toupane -1.9
IND Myles Turner -1.9
LAL Larry Nance Jr. -2.0
BOS R.J. Hunter -2.0
MEM P.J. Hairston -2.0
BRK Thomas Robinson -2.0
MEM Beno Udrih -2.0
NYK Derrick Williams -2.0
PHO Jordan McRae -2.0
PHO Orlando Johnson -2.0
DET Stanley Johnson -2.0
BOS James Young -2.0
LAC Luc Mbah a Moute -2.0
NOP Norris Cole -2.0
HOU Chuck Hayes -2.0
ORL Keith Appling -2.0
TOT Phil Pressey -2.0
SAC Eric Moreland -2.0
PHO Cory Jefferson -2.1
DEN Kostas Papanikolaou -2.1
DAL Charlie Villanueva -2.1
PHI Ish Smith -2.1
TOT Bryce Cotton -2.1
POR Chris Kaman -2.1
ORL Andrew Nicholson -2.1
TOT Brian Roberts -2.1
MIL Steve Novak -2.1
DET Darrun Hilliard -2.1
MIL Jared Cunningham -2.1
TOT P.J. Hairston -2.1
UTA Tibor Pleiss -2.1
PHO Bryce Cotton -2.1
TOT Beno Udrih -2.2
POR Luis Montero -2.2
DAL Salah Mejri -2.2
MIA Beno Udrih -2.2
PHI Isaiah Canaan -2.2
HOU Terrence Jones -2.2
CHO Brian Roberts -2.2
NYK Kevin Seraphin -2.2
CHO P.J. Hairston -2.2
HOU Jason Terry -2.2
PHI Phil Pressey -2.2
NYK Louis Amundson -2.2
NOP Alexis Ajinca -2.2
MEM Jarell Martin -2.3
CHO Troy Daniels -2.3
ATL Lamar Patterson -2.3
MIL Jabari Parker -2.3
NYK Lance Thomas -2.3
BOS Tyler Zeller -2.3
DAL Jeremy Evans -2.3
PHI Christian Wood -2.3
SAC Ben McLemore -2.3
NYK Jerian Grant -2.3
TOT Ryan Hollins -2.3
TOT Sean Kilpatrick -2.3
MIN Andre Miller -2.4
LAL D'Angelo Russell -2.4
TOT Ty Lawson -2.4
PHO Devin Booker -2.4
MEM Ryan Hollins -2.4
LAL Tarik Black -2.4
LAL Ryan Kelly -2.4
CHI Derrick Rose -2.4
BRK Sean Kilpatrick -2.4
BRK Sergey Karasev -2.4
NOP Kendrick Perkins -2.5
CHI Bobby Portis -2.5
CHI Doug McDermott -2.5
POR Noah Vonleh -2.5
DEN Emmanuel Mudiay -2.5
POR Pat Connaughton -2.5
PHO Archie Goodwin -2.5
ORL Shabazz Napier -2.5
HOU Ty Lawson -2.5
NYK Cleanthony Early -2.5
SAC James Anderson -2.5
MIL Damien Inglis -2.6
DEN JaKarr Sampson -2.6
NOP Omer Asik -2.6
DAL John Jenkins -2.6
HOU Montrezl Harrell -2.6
PHO Alex Len -2.6
MIN Greg Smith -2.6
HOU K.J. McDaniels -2.6
TOT Kevin Martin -2.6
LAL Robert Sacre -2.6
PHI Richaun Holmes -2.7
SAC Marco Belinelli -2.7
DAL JaVale McGee -2.7
ORL Mario Hezonja -2.7
LAL Julius Randle -2.7
PHI Sonny Weems -2.7
BRK Wayne Ellington -2.7
MIL Chris Copeland -2.8
MIN Nikola Pekovic -2.8
BOS Terry Rozier -2.8
IND Joseph Young -2.8
CHI Tony Snell -2.8
TOT John Jenkins -2.8
PHI Hollis Thompson -2.9
MIN Tayshaun Prince -2.9
LAL Nick Young -2.9
MIL Miles Plumlee -2.9
LAL Marcelo Huertas -3.0
BRK Bojan Bogdanovic -3.0
MIN Shabazz Muhammad -3.0
PHI Nik Stauskas -3.0
LAL Anthony Brown -3.0
MIL Tyler Ennis -3.0
PHO John Jenkins -3.0
MIL Greivis Vasquez -3.0
MIN Kevin Martin -3.1
WAS Kelly Oubre -3.1
PHI Jahlil Okafor -3.1
LAL Kobe Bryant -3.1
MIN Damjan Rudez -3.2
TOT JaKarr Sampson -3.3
MIN Adreian Payne -3.3
TOT Sonny Weems -3.4
PHI Tony Wroten -3.5
PHO Sonny Weems -3.5
PHI Kendall Marshall -3.5
BRK Andrea Bargnani -3.7
PHI JaKarr Sampson -3.8
MIL Johnny O'Bryant -3.8
MIL Rashad Vaughn -4.1