APBRmetrics • Faux RPM

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Faux RPM

Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:12 pm

by Mike G

For some reason, basketball-reference.com does not show in playoff series any "advanced" summary stats like PER, WS/48, or BPM. So I've cooked up a faux Win Shares just to check players' performances in 4 to 7 games of competition.

Here's the 2016 Finals.
mpg is just total minutes divided by (7) games.

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. Warriors        mpg   WS/48   WS        Cavs            mpg   WS/48   WS
Draymond Green   34.3   .217  1.08      LeBron James     41.7   .248  1.51
Andre Iguodala   34.1   .098   .49      Kyrie Irving     39.0   .181  1.03
Stephen Curry    35.1   .085   .43      Tristan Thompson 32.3   .211   .99
Leandro Barbosa  11.3   .254   .42      J.R. Smith       37.3   .057   .31
Klay Thompson    35.3   .076   .39     Richard Jefferson 24.0   .070   .24
Shaun Livingston 21.1   .095   .29      Dahntay Jones     2.6   .238   .09
James M McAdoo    2.6   .679   .25      Kevin Love       22.6   .023   .08
Andrew Bogut      8.6   .057   .07      Timofey Mozgov    3.6   .024   .01
Ian Clark         2.7   .134   .05      Mo Williams       4.1  -.032  -.02
Harrison Barnes  31.7   .006   .03      Matt Dellavedova  6.6  -.022  -.02
Anderson Varejao  5.9   .018   .01      James Jones       2.9  -.059  -.02
Marreese Speights 4.7   .008   .01      Channing Frye     4.7  -.070  -.05
Festus Ezeli      8.7  -.014  -.02      Iman Shumpert    18.3  -.033  -.09
Brandon Rush      4.0  -.059  -.03

Team totals: Cle 4.08 - 3.43 GSW -- well, the ratio is about right.

Re: Faux Win Shares and RPM

Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:30 am

by Mike G

Going back 20 years, same deal with a fabricated RPM -- all available stats making best fit with 2016 RPM (from espn), applied to earlier era.

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. Sonics         mpg   RPM  net        Bulls         mpg   RPM  net
Gary Payton     45.7   2.4   14      Michael Jordan 42.0   3.8   20
Shawn Kemp      40.3   2.9   15      Scottie Pippen 41.3   4.2   22
Detlef Schrempf 39.7  -2.0  -10      Dennis Rodman  37.5   1.5    7
Hersey Hawkins  38.3   -.7   -4      Toni Kukoc     29.5    .8    3
Sam Perkins     31.7  -2.6  -10      Luc Longley    28.3  -1.8   -6
Fr. Brickowski  11.3  -6.7  -10      Ron Harper     19.3   3.0    7
Vincent Askew   10.3  -6.4   -8      Steve Kerr     18.8  -5.6  -13
Nate McMillan    8.5   2.4    3      Randy Brown     8.2   -.7   -1
David Wingate    8.0  -6.8   -7      Bill Wennington 7.0  -5.1   -4
Ervin Johnson    3.3  -2.7   -1      Jud Buechler    5.5  -1.4   -1
Eric Snow        1.5  -6.5   -1      John Salley     2.5  -7.0   -2
Steve Scheffler  1.3  -8.6   -1

Net is just RPM*min/48
Bulls total 31 net +/- points, Sonics -20.5
I was curious whether Kemp outdid Jordan in this series. Some stats say it was exceedingly close.

Re: Faux Win Shares and RPM

Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:31 pm

by Mike G

Upgraded faux RPM by adding a GS/G factor and other twerks.
All else being equal, a player who starts every game is on average 1.2 pts/100 better than one who never starts.
Independently, a player who has given rates for 40 mpg is ~1.0 pts/100 better than one who goes 10 mpg.

Here's the 2016 WCF with all the relevant stats. mpg is just Min/7
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... riors.html
TS% is shown but not a factor -- picked up by ORtg mostly.

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. Warriors    mpg  TS%  Usg  Reb  Ast  St  Bk   TO   ORt   DRt  fRPM  net
Draym. Green  38  .441   18   12   17   2   4   18    93   105    .6    3
Stephen Curry 37  .612   32    9   30   3   0   15   113   107   4.5   24
Klay Thompson 34  .545   31    7    9   1   1    8   105   110    .0    0
An. Iguodala  33  .567   11    6   14   3   0   10   122   109   1.5    7
Harr. Barnes  29  .594   12    7    6   2   0   11   115   113  -1.2   -5

Andrew Bogut  18  .663   11   17   15   2   4   19   129   105   4.3   11
S. Livingston 16  .370   15    8   18   0   1   10    88   113  -5.0  -12
Mar. Speights  9  .516   37   12    0   1   2   17    87   114  -5.4   -7
Festus Ezeli   9  .614   25   14    7   0   2   12   112   112  -3.2   -4
Lean. Barbosa  6  .504   15    5   10   5   0    7   110   107   1.3    1

                                    
. Thunder     mpg  TS%  Usg  Reb  Ast  St  Bk   TO   ORt   DRt  fRPM  net
Kevin Durant  41  .539   32   10   12   2   4   11   106   106   2.5   15
Ru. Westbrook 39  .509   33    9   50   5   0   14   109   104   7.5   43
Serge Ibaka   36  .563   14   12    3   1   4    6   118   109    .5    2
Dion Waiters  31  .425   12    5   13   1   1   10    93   114  -4.8  -22
And. Roberson 30  .579   12   13    6   2   4   10   115   104   2.1    9

Steven Adams  29  .588   14   16    4   1   2   11   122   110    .3    1
Enes Kanter   12  .524   23   19    4   1   4   15   102   107  -3.3   -6
Randy Foye    12  .543    8    3    5   1   1   24    89   112  -5.0   -9

That's everyone who went >5 mpg
Does this look about right?
OKC total 30.5 net, GSW 20.0 -- in real life, OKC was +1.0 ppg

The heart of fRPM is this term:
(Usg+46.5)*.197*(ORtg/DRtg)^3.53

Re: Faux Win Shares and RPM

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:59 pm

by Mike G

Who has had the best postseason ever? The alltime leader in both Win Shares and VORP (back to 1974) is Tim Duncan's 2003 masterwork.
Does my faux RPM agree?
There are 67 postseasons since 1978 with at least half of Duncan's 5.9 WS and his 3.4 VORP.
I manually added Moses Malone '83, since BPM just strikes out on him.

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fRPM  net  net/G   Player        yr    Tm   min  ORtg  DRtg   O/D    Usg%    PER   WS/48   WS    BPM   VORP
15.6  188  13.4   LeBron James   09   Cle   580   128   100   1.28   36.4   37.4   .399   4.82   18.2   2.9
13.7  196  11.5   Michael Jordan 91   Chi   689   127   101   1.26   32.7   32.0   .333   4.78   13.8   2.8
11.4  244  10.1   Tim Duncan     03   SAS  1021   116    92   1.26   26.4   28.4   .279   5.93   11.6   3.5
10.9  154   9.6   Michael Jordan 90   Chi   674   120   102   1.18   36.1   31.7   .284   3.99   14.3   2.8
11.3  194   9.2   LeBron James   16   Cle   822   118   100   1.18   30.7   30.0   .274   4.69   13.1   3.1

10.0  160   8.9   Larry Bird     86   Bos   770   127   103   1.23   23.3   23.9   .263   4.22   10.3   2.4
10.0  153   8.5   Michael Jordan 96   Chi   733   123   101   1.22   32.9   26.7   .306   4.67    8.1   1.9
9.4   193   8.4   LeBron James   12   Mia   983   116    99   1.17   33.4   30.3   .284   5.82   11.0   3.2
9.2   138   8.1   Michael Jordan 89   Chi   718   120   104   1.15   35.4   29.9   .270   4.04   12.8   2.7
8.8   176   7.7   LeBron James   13   Mia   960   118   101   1.17   29.2   28.1   .260   5.20   10.2   2.9

fRPM  net  net/G   Player        yr    Tm   min  ORtg  DRtg   O/D    Usg%    PER   WS/48   WS    BPM   VORP
8.5   139   7.3   Michael Jordan 93   Chi   783   119   105   1.13   38.0   30.1   .270   4.40   10.9   2.5
8.4   167   7.3   Larry Bird     84   Bos   961   120   103   1.17   25.9   26.3   .236   4.72   10.2   2.9
8.1   166   7.2   Dirk Nowitzki  06   Dal   983   124   103   1.20   26.9   26.8   .263   5.39    7.9   2.4
8.4   129   7.2   Scottie Pippen 96   Chi   742   111    96   1.16   22.2   19.4   .195   3.01    9.3   2.1
8.7   114   7.1  Hakeem Olajuwon 97   Hou   629   121   103   1.17   25.0   27.6   .229   3.00    9.6   1.8

8.5    92   7.1   Moses Malone   83   Phl   524   118    96   1.23   26.0   25.7   .260   2.84    5.8   1.0
8.9   142   7.1   LeBron James   14   Mia   763   124   107   1.16   31.6   31.1   .270   4.29   10.4   2.4
9.1   126   7.0   Magic Johnson  87   LAL   666   129   107   1.21   23.1   26.2   .265   3.68    9.7   2.0
7.8   161   7.0  Hakeem Olajuwon 94   Hou   989   109    97   1.12   31.4   27.7   .208   4.29    9.1   2.8
8.0   160   7.0   Dwyane Wade    06   Mia   959   115   100   1.15   31.7   26.9   .240   4.80    8.9   2.6

Net is just fRPM*Min/48, regardless of pace.
ORtg/DRtg pretty much calls the top 3.
The columns beyond Usg% are just for corroboration/comparison. Not part of the fauxRPM calc.

Duncan's PER ranks 10th in the 68-player sample; his WS/48 and BPM both 6th best.
With the 3rd best fRPM and gargantuan minutes -- 24 games @ 42.5 mpg -- his net quite outpaces the field.

Re: Faux Win Shares and RPM

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:57 pm

by Mike G

While this sheet is ticking, here are the 68 postseasons with WS>3.0 and VORP>1.8 , plus Moses Malone, by conference and team.

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net     Dal    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%      net     Bos   yr   min   ORtg   DRtg  USG%
166  Nowitzki 2006   983   124   103   26.9      167   Bird   1984   961   120   103   25.9
.                                                160   Bird   1986   770   127   103   23.3
net     GSW    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%      134  Garnett 2008   987   112    99   26.6
116   Curry   2015   826   114   102   31.0      117   Bird   1981   750   109    95   23.2
111   Green   2016   879   113   101   18.9       72   Bird   1987  1015   119   114   25.9
                                          
net     Hou    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%      net     Chi    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%
161  Olajuwon 1994   989   109    97   31.4      196   Jordan  1991   689   127   101   32.7
124  Olajuwon 1986   766   119   101   27.3      154   Jordan  1990   674   120   102   36.1
114  Olajuwon 1997   629   121   103   25.0      153   Jordan  1996   733   123   101   32.9
.                                                139   Jordan  1993   783   119   105   38.0
net     LAL    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%      138   Jordan  1989   718   120   104   35.4
134   P Gasol 2009   931   124   102   18.8      134   Jordan  1992   920   115   104   37.1
133   Kobe    2009   940   117   104   32.9      129   Pippen  1996   742   111    96   22.2
126   Magic   1987   666   129   107   23.1      126   Jordan  1998   872   117   103   36.6
110   Magic   1984   837   121   106   19.7      126   Jordan  1997   804   114   101   35.5
104   P Gasol 2010   913   126   107   21.0      110   Grant   1992   856   127   104   12.7
95    Shaq    2000  1000   114   104   31.3      104   Pippen  1992   899   112   102   23.6
91    Magic   1988   965   124   112   22.1                        
90    Magic   1991   823   121   110   23.3      net     Cle    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%
86    Kobe    2010   923   115   109   33.2      194   LeBron  2016   822   118   100   30.7
82    Shaq    2004   917   108    96   25.2      188   LeBron  2009   580   128   100   36.4
77    Kobe    2008   863   113   108   33.0      134   LeBron  2015   844   105    99   37.6
.                                                119   LeBron  2007   893   109    99   29.7
net     OKC    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%                        
104   Durant  2012   837   119   107   28.8      net     Det    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%
.                                                134 B Wallace 2004   924    99    84   15.0
net     Phx    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%      129   Billups 2005   985   122   103   22.0
132   Barkley 1993  1026   119   106   27.3      117   Isiah   1988   911   108   100   28.0
.                                                109   Isiah   1990   758   113   100   25.4
net     Por    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%                        
92    Drexler 1992   847   120   110   28.4      net     Mia    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%
.                                                193   LeBron  2012   983   116    99   33.4
net     SAS    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%      176   LeBron  2013   960   118   101   29.2
244   Duncan  2003  1021   116    92   26.4      160   Wade    2006   959   115   100   31.7
115   Duncan  1999   733   110    92   26.8      142   LeBron  2014   763   124   107   31.6
108  Ginobili 2005   772   124   104   26.3      120   LeBron  2011   922   113   102   26.9
.                                                108   Wade    2011   828   113   102   30.4
net     Sea    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%                        
84    Payton  1996   911   113   105   23.6      net     Orl    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%
.                                                145   Howard  2009   903   119    98   23.3
net     Uta    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%                        
94    Malone  1998   795   105    96   34.1      net     Phi    yr    min   ORtg  DRtg  USG%
.                                                 92   Moses   1983   524   118    96   26.0
.                                                 77   Erving  1982   780   114   104   24.9

It's not really comprehensive, as others besides Moses likely rank in this range of fRPM. Hakeem '95?

Re: Faux Win Shares and RPM

Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:28 pm

by Mike G

Who ever outplayed Michael Jordan over the course of a playoff series?
At b-r.com, we don't see any advanced summary stats for playoff series, other than for players who lost in round 1. BPM won't go there, nor PER nor Win Shares. That's kinda why I started this thread and what's become faux RPM.
We do get Game Score avg for the series -- which looks a lot like PER for players who go ~40 minutes. So I'm throwing that in for comparisons' sake.

Basically, I'm listing everyone in a series who had at least half of the top GmSc; or whoever led the losing team in GmSc; or whoever.
The median GmSc for a player going 40+ mpg is around 14 to 15.
Jordan's first 3 years, he didn't get his team past round 1 of the playoffs.

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1985       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   120   112   29   24.6   6.1   22
Moncrief  Mil   150   113   21   23.2   5.9   21
Cummings  Mil   127   108   26   22.7   4.8   16
                     
1986       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Bird      Bos   128   108   24   25.1   6.6   19
McHale    Bos   139   109   22   25.8   5.8   15
Jordan    Chi   116   119   40   30.6   5.1   14
                     
1987       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Bird      Bos   137   108   23   26.7   7.6   21
Jordan    Chi   115   115   39   26.9   5.9   16

According to GmSc, Jordan wins each of these, and he never has much help. But Larry Bird has an argument for going 2-0 against the GOAT.
Sidney Moncrief also showed him a thing or two.

Getting out of the 1st round, the Bulls keep running into the Pistons -- 4-1, 4-2, and 4-3 defeats.

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1988       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   126   105   39   34.0   9.4   43
Price     Cle   137   114   19   19.3   4.2   18
                     
1988       2    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Thomas    Det   107    96   27   16.8   5.7   23
Jordan    Chi   106   103   31   20.4   5.0   22
                     
1989       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   121   103   41   30.9  10.0   44
Harper    Cle   124   106   21   17.0   6.3   25
Nance     Cle   119   107   22   17.3   3.7   15
                     
1989       2    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   129   105   34   31.8  10.8   56
Ewing     NYK   116   112   24   18.0   4.2   20
Jackson   NYK   115   117   19   15.1   2.8   13
                     
1989       3    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   112   106   33   21.4   5.6   30
Thomas    Det   102   102   29   15.3   5.1   25
                     
1990       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   119   106   37   28.2   8.7   30
Pippen    Chi   123   103   22   22.4   8.5   30
Robertson Mil   109   118   28   17.2   3.5   11
Pressey   Mil   120   118   22   14.6   2.8    7
Pierce    Mil   126   121   29   15.7   1.7    4
                     
1990       2    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   124   103   41   35.4  12.5   55
Barkley   Phl   116   113   25   21.9   3.6   16
                     
1990       3    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   117   102   32   24.8   7.8   48
Thomas    Det   108    98   24   16.2   7.4   41
Dumars    Det   113   107   24   13.4   2.8   15

Scottie Pippen emerges as Jordan's first significant help, at least briefly.
We also see Jordan getting more net points than any 2 other players in a series.

With Pippen and Horace Grant thriving, the Bulls roll:

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1991       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   134    93   30   26.1  14.3   34
Pippen    Chi   105    88   24   17.7   9.5   24
Ewing     NYK    88   109   27    8.9    .8    2
                     
1991       2    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   123   104   38   27.2  10.0   41
Pippen    Chi   123   107   24   20.8   6.5   29
Barkley   Phl   131   117   25   24.2   5.7   24
Hawkins   Phl   126   117   21   16.9   4.1   17
                     
1991       3    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   132   106   30   26.3   9.5   32
Pippen    Chi   116   102   28   20.2   8.5   27
Johnson   Det   126   120   30   17.0   3.2    8
                     
1991       4    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   125   102   32   29.4  10.6   49
Pippen    Chi   107   102   26   17.5   5.9   27
Johnson   LAL   120   116   21   20.0   4.6   22
Divac     LAL   112   111   21   16.1   4.1   18
                     
1992       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   136   102   41   38.4  15.0   37
Pippen    Chi   141   107   21   24.5   9.1   23
Smith     Mia   136   129   18   15.1   3.1    7
Seikaly   Mia   118   125   22   15.9    .5    1
                     
1992       2    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Pippen    Chi   106   103   22   14.9   5.1   31
Grant     Chi   129   106   13   13.7   5.0   29
Jordan    Chi   107   107   37   20.7   4.5   29
Ewing     NYK   109   106   27   15.9   3.4   20
                     
1992       3    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   111   106   38   22.7   6.7   34
Pippen    Chi   106   102   26   17.4   5.7   28
Nance     Cle   110   105   23   16.1   4.2   20
Grant     Chi   125   106   15   14.3   3.7   18
Daugherty Cle   116   108   20   15.7   3.3   17
Price     Cle   108   115   26   12.8   1.8    8
                     
1992       4    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   116   104   36   25.8   6.4   34
Pippen    Chi   111   102   25   18.1   5.2   26
Drexler   Por   113   109   30   18.4   4.7   23
Porter    Por   111   112   17   12.5   2.0   11
                     
1993       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   131   100   37   26.7  11.9   27
Wilkins   Atl   109   125   38   18.0   1.5    3
                     
1993       2    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   118   105   39   23.3   8.0   26
Grant     Chi   161   105   14   14.8  10.7   25
Pippen    Chi   106   103   23   15.2   5.7   20
Nance     Cle   130   118   20   15.3   3.0    9
                     
1993       3    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   113   103   39   24.4   8.4   44
Ewing     NYK   116   106   29   20.7   6.0   31
Pippen    Chi   104   105   28   15.7   4.4   22
                     
1993       4    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   119   112   39   29.6   6.4   37
Barkley   Phx   123   111   26   23.4   5.1   30
Majerle   Phx   128   112   15   17.0   4.8   28
Pippen    Chi    97   110   28   15.6   3.6   20

Jordan modestly outplays the MVP Charles Barkley. Earlier, he'd seriously thrashed the 1990 mvp (Magic) a year after; and 1992 Drexler could not close the gap.

Re: Faux Win Shares and RPM

Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 2:58 pm

by bchaikin

Jordan's first 3 years, he didn't get his team past round 1 of the playoffs.

it's not like he didn't try - those 3 years he scored over 1/3 of the bulls' playoff points, threw for over 1/3 of their playoff assists, blocked over 1/3 of their total playoff blocked shots, grabbed almost 1/3 of their total playoff steals, yet accounted for just 1/4 of their turnovers playing just 1/6 to 1/5 of their total playoff minutes...

Sidney Moncrief also showed him a thing or two.

looking at regular season peak value the best SG next to jordan the past 4 decades. the best two way SG other than jordan i've ever seen...

Re: Faux Win Shares and RPM

Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:15 pm

by Mike G

The 1984-85 Bucks were the best team in the NBA, according to their SRS of 6.85
I guess this means opponents in the RS were 6.85 pts/100 worse in net +/-
And so each of 5 opponent positions would be 1/5 of that, or 1.37 worse on avg?
When they play their best players, the differential might be greater. If they focus their best defenders on Michael Jordan, he might should do about 2 pts worse?

Since I don't account for that here, yet, his +6.1 fRPM in 1985 PS could adjust up to around 8 if I did what BPM does.
With similar stories in '86 and '87 -- Bulls the 8th seed both times facing the #1 Celtics -- Jordan pretty much carrying the team to respectability, but going 1-9 in PO games over these 3 years.

The good thing about it is that we can compare his fRPM to some other measures which appear here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced

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yr    PER   WS/48   BPM  fRPM
85   24.7   .198    8.2   6.1
86   30.1   .161   10.2   5.1
87   28.1   .165   10.0   6.0

The biggest difference between BPM and fRPM was in '86, when they played the best-team-in-15-years Celtics, SRS = 9.1

And how about those worthy opponents from yrs 1-3? Does fRPM reasonably state their performances in round 1?

Code: Select all

1985 Bucks
4G-8G:    ORt  DRt  fRPM    ORt  DRt  BPM
Cummings  127  108   4.8    120  110  4.4
Moncrief  150  113   5.2    137  115  4.3

1986 Celtics
3G-18G   ORt  DRt  fRPM    ORt  DRt   BPM
Bird     128  108   6.6    127  103  10.3
McHale   139  109   5.8    123  105   5.3

1987 Celtics
3G-23G   ORt  DRt  fRPM    ORt  DRt   BPM
Bird     137  108   7.6    119  114   5.8

All these guys cooled down after round 1, except for Bird in '86.
In general, pretty consistent with BPM?

Re: Faux Win Shares and RPM

Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:00 pm

by Mike G

After baseball, we pick it up again in 1995.
After that debacle, the 1996 postseason grinds on to the meeting with one of the other best teams of the decade, also with a couple of superstars in their prime.
Did Kemp outplay Jordan in a Finals series? Results are shocking:

Code: Select all

1995    rd 1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   115   105   38   23.2   7.7   27
Pippen    Chi   122   103   20   14.8   7.4   23
Mourning  Cha   114   105   25   18.9   4.9   18
Johnson   Cha   119   114   23   15.8   3.0   11
Kukoc     Chi   119   110   23   14.0   3.3   10
                     
1995       2    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   107   110   35   21.6   5.5   29
Grant     Orl   136   111   16   17.3   4.5   23
Hardaway  Orl   118   114   22   15.4   3.9   20
O'Neal    Orl   113   109   30   20.4   3.8   19
Pippen    Chi   110   112   23   15.8   3.5   18
Anderson  Orl   115   113   17   11.3   3.2   17
Kukoc     Chi   115   112   15   12.3   3.5   17
 
                    
1996       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Pippen    Chi   124    86   22   22.7  14.8   36
Jordan    Chi   130    95   34   22.3  11.5   25
Hardaway  Mia    98   122   26    9.3    .9    2
Mourning  Mia    90   118   32    8.5    .2    0
                     
1996       2    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   121   100   38   24.3   8.4   38
Pippen    Chi   100    95   22   13.0   6.6   30
Ewing     NYK    97   100   30   15.0   2.5   11
                     
1996       3    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   131   100   30   23.9  10.4   35
Pippen    Chi   120   101   23   16.6   7.5   26
O'Neal    Orl   108   113   30   21.0   4.5   16
Hardaway  Orl   108   121   29   15.6   2.0    7
                     
1996       4    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Pippen    Chi   106   103   22   13.4   6.0   31
Jordan    Chi   116   107   31   18.5   5.2   28
Kemp      Sea   117   106   27   18.9   5.0   25
Payton    Sea   114   111   21   14.4   4.1   24

It's very close, by yet another metric. But Pippen was the Man?
Strictly by ORtg/DRtg*Usg, Jordan is 1.0 better than Pip. But for many other reasons: Stl%, Blk%, Ast*Reb, etc -- it goes to Pippen.
Payton shackled Jordan, and Rodman distracted Kemp. Who guarded Pippen? Schrempf?

Winding down, I've gotten pretty lax about who is measured. Sure enough, Tracy Murray had great output, for 3 games:

Code: Select all

1997       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan     Chi  132   110   35   28.0   7.6   21
Murray     Was  163   116   20   15.7   8.0   14
Pippen     Chi  106   106   22   12.0   3.8   10
Strickland Was  107   116   27   14.4   2.5    6
Howard     Was  123   119   20   14.0   1.7    5
                     
1997       2    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   111   102   32   20.9   7.3   32
Blaylock  Atl   111   112   24   15.7   4.7   22
Pippen    Chi   119   108   26   16.4   5.1   21
Mutombo   Atl   114   111   15   12.5   1.6    7
                     
1997       3    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   108    94   38   18.7   7.7   34
Pippen    Chi   102    93   26   10.8   5.6   20
Hardaway  Mia   106   107   23   11.6   2.6   11
Mourning  Mia    87   100   25    8.9    .2    1
                     
1997       4    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   113   105   38   23.4   6.3   34
Stockton  Uta   111   103   21   14.9   5.6   26
Pippen    Chi   101   101   26   15.1   4.8   26
Malone    Uta   102   102   33   16.8   4.7   24
       
              
1998       1    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Pippen    Chi   125   109   20   16.2   5.3   15
Jordan    Chi   120   110   36   25.7   5.1   14
Douglas   NJN   107   120   24   14.5   1.4    4
                     
1998       2    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Pippen    Chi   113    92   22   16.9   9.6   41
Jordan    Chi   114   100   36   20.7   6.2   26
Divac     Cha    94   100   20   11.0   2.7   11
Rice      Cha   105   112   27   13.6   1.9    9
Mason     Cha   103   108   18   10.7   2.0    8
                     
1998       3    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   122   110   35   22.4   6.3   37
Pippen    Chi   102   106   26   13.0   5.1   28
Kukoc     Chi   129   108   20   12.6   5.4   23
Jackson   Ind    96   110   23    8.3   3.5   14
Miller    Ind   118   118   21   11.6   2.5   14
Smits     Ind   119   115   23   10.9   1.4    7
D Davis   Ind   120   112   17    9.8   1.5    6
                     
1998       4    ORt   DRt  Usg   GmSc  fRPM  net
Jordan    Chi   111   100   41   21.4   6.9   36
Pippen    Chi   104    97   23   13.0   5.4   27
Malone    Uta   106   103   33   18.5   4.8   24
Kukoc     Chi   108   100   21   11.5   4.0   19
Stockton  Uta   103   103   19   10.0   4.4   18

Pippen led Jordan by 16 net plus-minus after 2 rounds. Still by 7 going into the Finals.
That 41.2 Usg% was the highest of Jordan's career for a playoff series. He'd never surpassed 39 after the 1st round.

Re: Faux Win Shares and RPM

Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2017 8:36 pm

by Mike G

At allstar break, I've fired up the faux RPM (one version) for the current season.
Here are players that fRPM regards more highly than BPM does; and vise versa.

Code: Select all

diff   fRPM>BPM     fRPM   BPM     diff     BPM>fRPM     fRPM   BPM
133  H Whiteside     2.3  -1.4     -167   R Westbrook    10.0  14.1
107  Andre Drummond  4.0   1.0     -134   Isaiah Thomas   2.2   5.7
91   Andrew Wiggins   .0  -2.0     -130   James Harden    7.3  10.2
87   Harrison Barnes  .4  -1.7     -110   Kyle Lowry      3.9   6.4
87   J Valanciunas   1.4  -1.4     -109   Nikola Jokic    4.3   8.3
83   DeMar DeRozan   2.2    .0      -98   LeBron James    5.7   8.1
69   Markieff Morris 1.2   -.8      -76   Kemba Walker    1.8   3.7
69   Victor Oladipo   .9  -1.1      -71   Mike Conley     2.9   5.2
68   D Sabonis      -2.3  -4.9      -70   Stephen Curry   4.7   6.5
64   Devin Booker   -1.1  -2.7      -65   James Johnson    .2   2.5
62   Anthony Davis   5.2   3.7      -60   Eric Bledsoe    2.4   3.9
59   Kevin Love      3.5   1.6      -58   Damian Lillard  1.3   2.8
57   Tyson Chandler  1.8   -.3      -57  Rodney McGruder -2.3   -.3
54   T.J. McConnell  -.4  -2.3      -56   Jon Leuer        .0   1.9
51   Ricky Rubio     1.8    .3      -55   Danny Green      .9   3.0
50   Dwight Howard   4.3   2.7      -53   Marc Gasol      3.7   5.0
45   Derrick Rose    -.9  -2.3      -51   Giannis A       6.8   8.1
43   Carmelo Anthony 1.2    .1      -50   Jrue Holiday     .5   2.3
41   Jarell Martin  -3.2  -6.9      -49   Lucas Nogueira  3.3   5.6

The diff column is the difference between the net plus-minus points estimated by each metric.
For fRPM, that would be:
net = fRPM*Min/48

Re: Faux RPM

Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:24 pm

by Mike G

Having digested all NBA Finals since 1984, here are the best Net performances, where Net = fRPM*Min/48
fRPM are adjusted to make team Net match series point differential. As much as 1.2 is added to all players on one team, subtracted from all players on the other.

Code: Select all

net   Finals         yr    tm   opp  fRPM   Min   Usg%   ORt   DRt
61   LeBron James   2016   Cle  GSW  10.1   292   .334   114   101
61   Tim Duncan     2003   SAS  NJN  11.1   263   .278   109    83
46   Dwyane Wade    2006   Mia  Dal   8.4   261   .369   113    97
45   Magic Johnson  1988   LAL  Det   7.4   290   .203   136   110
45   Michael Jordan 1991   Chi  LAL   9.7   220   .319   125   102

43   LeBron James   2015   Cle  GSW   7.5   274   .408   104   104
42   Larry Bird     1986   Bos  Hou   7.5   269   .220   124   102
41   Magic Johnson  1987   LAL  Bos   8.4   236   .263   132   111
41   David Robinson 2003   SAS  NJN  12.1   161   .152   137    90
40   LeBron James   2013   Mia  SAS   6.4   301   .297   113   105

net   Finals         yr    tm   opp  fRPM   Min   Usg%   ORt   DRt
40   Draymond Green 2016   GSW  Cle   8.0   240   .179   124   103
39  Hakeem Olajuwon 1994   Hou  NYK   6.2   302   .309   105    95
37   Tim Duncan     1999   SAS  NYK   7.8   229   .289   112    89
36   Kobe Bryant    2010   LAL  Bos   6.0   288   .356   108    99
35   Bill Laimbeer  1990   Det  Por   8.9   191   .132   133    97

35   Larry Bird     1984   Bos  LAL   5.4   305   .237   120   107
34   Derek Harper   1994   NYK  Hou   6.1   266   .192   122   100
32   Dwyane Wade    2011   Mia  Dal   6.5   234   .302   123   108
31   Pau Gasol      2010   LAL  Bos   5.1   293   .210   122   101
31   Kawhi Leonard  2013   SAS  Mia   5.9   255   .175   120   103
31   Kawhi Leonard  2014   SAS  Mia   8.9   167   .205   136   101

Jordan appears just once in the top 21 -- same as Laimbeer.

Here are the Finals 'careers' of the big 4 since '84

Code: Select all

net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
02   2007   Cle   SAS   170    .4   .361    83   104
13   2011   Mia   Dal   262   2.4   .229   102   110
23   2012   Mia   OKC   220   5.0   .320   117   109
40   2013   Mia   SAS   301   6.4   .297   113   105
26   2014   Mia   SAS   189   6.7   .329   120   116
43   2015   Cle   GSW   274   7.5   .408   104   104
61   2016   Cle   GSW   292  10.1   .334   114   101
209   LeBron James     1708   5.9   .324   108   106
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
45   1991   Chi   LAL   220   9.7   .319   125   102
27   1992   Chi   Por   254   5.2   .359   116   104
30   1993   Chi   Phx   274   5.2   .389   119   112
21   1996   Chi   Sea   252   4.1   .310   116   107
27   1997   Chi   Uta   256   5.1   .379   113   105
27   1998   Chi   Uta   250   5.1   .412   111   100
177   Michael Jordan   1506   5.6   .363   117   105

net   yr    tm    opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
26   1984   LAL   Bos   295   4.3   .186   116   107
21   1985   LAL   Bos   235   4.3   .207   117   107
41   1987   LAL   Bos   236   8.4   .263   132   111
45   1988   LAL   Det   290   7.4   .203   136   110
04   1989   LAL   Det    75   2.7   .219   124   119
22   1991   LAL   Chi   228   4.7   .207   120   116
160   Magic Johnson    1359   5.6   .212   124   111
                        
net   yr    tm    opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
37   1999   SAS   NYK   229   7.8   .289   112    89
61   2003   SAS   NJN   263  11.1   .278   109    83
19   2005   SAS   Det   285   3.3   .300   103   100
19   2007   SAS   Cle   149   6.3   .293   102    91
18   2013   SAS   Mia   254   3.5   .252   112   104
04   2014   SAS   Mia   165   1.2   .225   114   105
159   Tim Duncan       1345   5.7   .275   109    95

Jordan was ridiculously consistent. LeBron has gotten stronger in every appearance!

Re: Faux RPM

Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:46 pm

by Crow

Your choice but I'd adjust proportionately to unadjusted fRPM rather straight across, same for 1st and 15th man. Will skew the bottom of team up more relatively and that doesn't seem realistic to me.

Faux RPM might be able to play a role in evaluating / sorting potential larger than average error RPM cases. I'll have to go back and re-read about it more. DRE, Dredge and PT-PM could help with that too.

Re: Faux RPM

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:28 am

by Mike G

In the 2004 Finals, Det outscored LA by 46 points in 5 games.
Unadjusted fRPM gave the Pistons a whopping 105 net points advantage.
Reducing Pistons' fRPM by 1.16, and increasing Lakers' by 1.16, the difference is corrected to 46.

Code: Select all

2004                      -1.16  adj
Det       Min  fRPM  net   fRPM  net
Hamilton  222    .5    2    -.6   -3
B Wallace 203   3.9   16    2.7   11
Prince    196   3.6   15    2.5   10
Billups   192   7.7   31    6.6   26
R Wallace 151   4.8   15    3.7   11
Campbell   68   3.3    5    2.2    3
Hunter     65   2.7    4    1.5    2
Williamson 52  -2.7   -3   -3.9   -4
Okur       39  -7.0   -6   -8.2   -7
James      22  -3.7   -2   -4.9   -2
Ham        10  -7.1   -1   -8.3   -2
Milicic     5   4.2    0    3.0    0
totals                76          47

                          +1.16  adj
LAL       Min  fRPM  net   fRPM  net
Bryant    231    .2    1    1.3    6
O'Neal    213   1.7    7    2.8   13
Payton    168  -1.9   -7    -.8   -3
Malone    122  -2.1   -5   -1.0   -2
George    104    .4    1    1.6    3
Fisher    101  -1.7   -4    -.5   -1
Rush       78  -6.3  -10   -5.2   -8
Walton     77   1.1    2    2.3    4
Medvedenko 72  -4.7   -7   -3.6   -5
Fox        30  -5.2   -3   -4.0   -3
Cook       21  -4.9   -2   -3.8   -2
Russell     8  -9.2   -2   -8.0   -1
totals               -29           1

High minute guys have their Net points adjusted by 5-6, roughly 1 pt/G; while the low minute players are hardly affected.
Since we are looking at a single competitive environment for all Det/LA players, it seems reasonable to adjust all by the same +/- amount.

Re: Faux RPM

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:39 am

by Mike G

Five more Finals careers.

Code: Select all

net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
19   1991   Chi   LAL   218   4.3   .260   107   102
23   1992   Chi   Por   244   4.5   .253   111   102
11   1993   Chi   Phx   266   2.0   .280    97   110
23   1996   Chi   Sea   248   4.5   .223   106   103
16   1997   Chi   Uta   257   3.1   .255   101   101
16   1998   Chi   Uta   237   3.2   .229   104    97
108   Scottie Pippen   1470   3.5   .250   104   103
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
35   1984   Bos   LAL   305   5.4   .237   120   107
15   1985   Bos   LAL   241   3.0   .248   111   112
42   1986   Bos   Hou   269   7.5   .220   124   102
13   1987   Bos   LAL   254   2.5   .261   111   115
105    Larry Bird      1069   4.7   .241   117   109
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
10   1995   Orl   Hou   180   2.7   .275   109   115
27   2000   LAL   Ind   273   4.7   .345   116   109
25   2001   LAL   Phl   225   5.3   .335   115   101
26   2002   LAL   NJN   166   7.4   .360   126   102
13   2004   LAL   Det   213   2.8   .284   111   106
01   2006   Mia   Dal   211    .3   .215    95    99
101  Shaquille O'Neal  1268   3.8   .303   112   105
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
-2   2000   LAL   Ind   176   -.6   .253    96   116
09   2001   LAL   Phl   234   1.8   .278   104   103
12   2002   LAL   NJN   175   3.4   .269   119   107
06   2004   LAL   Det   231   1.3   .304    90   108
16   2008   LAL   Bos   258   2.9   .325    98   111
22   2009   LAL   Orl   219   4.7   .375   111   100
36   2010   LAL   Bos   288   6.0   .356   108    99
99    Kobe Bryant      1581   3.0   .313   103   106
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
46   2006   Mia   Dal   261   8.4   .369   113    97
32   2011   Mia   Dal   234   6.5   .302   123   108
07   2012   Mia   OKC   203   1.8   .292   108   109
09   2013   Mia   SAS   255   1.7   .285   104   108
02   2014   Mia   SAS   172    .5   .275    89   120
96    Dwyane Wade      1125   4.1   .308   108   107

Kobe figured it out, Wade faded, Pippen was very consistent.
Strong correlations between a star's performance and team winning it: see Bird.

Re: Faux RPM

Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 10:15 pm

by Mike G

Remember, a plus-minus of 0 or -1 is really not bad in the NBA Finals. It means you're holding your own against the toughest competition on earth.
Here are the best of the rest.

Code: Select all

net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
27   1986   Hou   Bos   241   5.3   .264   110   104
39   1994   Hou   NYK   302   6.2   .309   105    95
15   1995   Hou   Orl   179   4.1   .350   107   106
81    Hakeem Olajuwon   722   5.4   .304   107   101
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
06   1994   Hou   NYK   265   1.0   .168    98   102
19   1995   Hou   Orl   187   4.9   .162   119   105
-4   2000   LAL   Ind   182  -1.1   .140   113   115
21   2001   LAL   Phl   127   8.1   .108   153   102
20   2002   LAL   NJN   159   5.9   .096   124   102
17   2005   SAS   Det   200   4.0   .174   124   104
00   2007   SAS   Cle    88    .1   .089   111    96
78    Robert Horry     1208   3.1   .142   118   104
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
29   1999   SAS   NYK   185   7.5   .240   109    86
41   2003   SAS   NJN   161  12.1   .152   137    90
69    David Robinson    346   9.6   .199   122    88
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
08   2008   LAL   Bos   234   1.6   .183   111   111
29   2009   LAL   Orl   212   6.5   .175   132    99
31   2010   LAL   Bos   293   5.1   .210   122   101
68    Pau Gasol         739   4.4   .191   121   104
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
31   2013   SAS   Mia   255   5.9   .175   120   103
31   2014   SAS   Mia   167   8.9   .205   136   101
62    Kawhi Leonard     422   7.0   .187   126   102
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
25   1988   Det   LAL   262   4.6   .280   106   105
06   1989   Det   LAL   141   2.2   .284   117   113
18   1990   Det   Por   192   4.6   .297   116   104
50    Isiah Thomas      595   4.0   .286   112   107
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
21   1990   Por   Det   204   4.9   .270   118   108
18   1992   Por   Chi   238   3.7   .298   113   109
10   1995   Hou   Orl   162   3.1   .231   126   111
50    Clyde Drexler     604   3.9   .271   118   109
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
26   2004   Det   LAL   192   6.6   .225   133   100
21   2005   Det   SAS   281   3.6   .237   128   108
48    Chauncey Billups  473   4.8   .232   130   105
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
21   1997   Uta   Chi   245   4.2   .327   102   102
27   1998   Uta   Chi   243   5.3   .333   106   103
-2   2004   LAL   Det   122  -1.0   .126    90   104
46    Karl Malone       610   3.6   .289   101   103
                        
net   yr     tm   opp   Min   fRPM   Usg   ORt   DRt
07   2003   SAS   NJN   172   1.9   .177    98    92
28   2005   SAS   Det   252   5.4   .251   117   104
12   2007   SAS   Cle   117   5.1   .305   110    94
-9   2013   SAS   Mia   199  -2.1   .224   101   112
03   2014   SAS   Mia   143   1.1   .231   118   105
42    Manu Ginobili     883   2.3   .234   109   102

Malone played half time on one leg to mess up his Finals rates.
Horry went 7-0 for 3 teams. Has anyone done better?