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Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:27 am
by Mike G
Ranked by eWins above and beyond last year's rates in this year's minutes.
Some of this season's stats on the left, last year on the right.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2016 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.90 James Harden Hou .603 29.8 8.3 12.4 2.87 .584 26.3 5.8 7.0 1.95
.63 Kemba Walker Cha .594 30.4 4.4 6.3 2.38 .545 21.4 4.5 5.6 1.62
.62 Ru. Westbrook Okl .555 35.3 10.5 10.1 3.21 .543 24.3 8.5 11.6 2.54
.58 Jimmy Butler Chi .594 28.1 7.0 4.1 2.15 .550 20.2 5.0 4.3 1.54
.58 Nick Young LAL .625 19.6 3.6 1.6 1.01 .478 11.8 3.0 1.0 .20
.57 George Hill Uta .650 26.5 3.2 5.7 1.95 Ind .549 13.0 4.2 3.8 .79
.56 G Antetokounmpo Mil .547 23.7 8.6 5.4 2.08 .554 17.0 8.0 4.0 1.43
.54 DeMar DeRozan Tor .565 33.9 4.8 3.6 2.28 .537 24.4 4.8 4.5 1.69
.53 Avery Bradley Bos .550 18.5 8.0 3.3 1.33 .534 16.2 3.0 2.4 .78
.52 D'Ang'o Russell LAL .537 21.8 4.8 6.2 1.42 .501 15.5 4.1 3.8 .65
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2016 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.51 Anthony Davis NOP .575 31.2 10.1 1.8 2.61 .548 23.4 10.6 1.8 2.11
.51 Andrew Wiggins Min .568 27.1 4.9 2.4 1.55 .531 20.4 3.9 2.0 .98
.49 Jabari Parker Mil .529 22.2 7.0 2.4 1.48 .528 15.7 6.0 1.8 .88
.49 Chris Paul LAC .602 24.8 6.3 11.9 2.79 .566 21.9 4.4 11.7 2.24
.45 Blake Griffin LAC .552 26.9 10.3 5.5 2.53 .535 23.4 8.6 5.8 2.05
.41 Lou Williams LAL .594 24.1 3.4 5.0 1.55 .568 17.9 3.0 2.7 .88
.40 Harrison Barnes Dal .531 22.5 5.5 .9 1.24 GSW .553 13.3 5.6 2.3 .81
.39 Mike Muscala Atl .694 18.4 7.5 3.1 1.39 .569 11.1 6.2 1.9 .67
.38 Dwight Howard Atl .570 20.3 16.8 1.9 2.22 Hou .583 14.7 13.1 1.7 1.63
.38 Tim Hardaway Atl .583 21.7 3.5 2.4 1.21 .556 12.7 3.1 2.0 .49
1.00 eWins/484 minutes is NBA average.
This is at 15% of the season.
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 9:51 am
by Mike G
Before this season, Avery Bradley had 2 games (in 360) in which he'd gotten 10 or more rebounds.
This year, he's done it 7 times in his first 12 games. Still listed as SG.
Last year he was 9th on the Celtics in boards; this year he has twice what anyone else has.
Harrison Barnes went from the best team to the worst (?)
Code: Select all
yr tm PER Usg% WS/48 Bpm e484
16 GSW 12.3 15.9 .116 -0.2 .81
17 Dal 17.0 26.3 .094 -2.9 1.24
His BPM this year is career worst. PER by far best.
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 3:41 pm
by rlee
Passing this along just because it is an interesting take on the subject:
http://hoopshabit.com/2016/11/25/nba-5- ... ed-player/
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:10 pm
by Mike G
Thanks, Ray. The 5 they look at are (my rank): Andrew Wiggins (12), Jabari Parker (13), Anteto ... (7), George Hill (6), and a link to Kareem (??). Well, I almost never pursue these broken up articles past the intro page.
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:36 pm
by rlee
The other one was Wilson Chandler...and I'm with you...don't like slideshows & rarely bother with them
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:13 pm
by Mike G
Relative to his 2015 numbers, my rates as of a few days ago* would rank Chandler just in the top 40 most improved this year. Maybe they give him extra credit for the scope of his 'comeback' from injury.
* His last 3 games were not very good, so it's not that.
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 11:42 pm
by rlee
Yes, they did give EC for injury recovery
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:05 pm
by rlee
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:37 pm
by Mike G
Starting out with most regressed, underproductive players. Relative to last season but still getting major minutes.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 1516 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.69 Ed Davis Por .517 7.2 9.1 1.2 .38 .599 10.2 11.9 1.8 1.41
-.68 Bismack Biyombo Orl .457 7.5 10.5 1.2 .54 Tor .566 8.9 13.1 .6 1.33
-.59 Aaron Gordon Orl .442 12.7 6.2 2.3 .69 .532 13.2 9.5 2.2 1.29
-.58 LaMarcus Aldridge SAS .545 22.4 7.8 1.9 1.54 .556 23.2 10.6 1.9 2.07
-.50 Danilo Gallinari Den .560 17.2 4.8 2.1 .86 .566 19.6 5.7 2.4 1.33
-.50 Luol Deng LAL .414 8.4 8.1 2.2 .50 Mia .542 14.2 6.9 2.1 1.03
-.49 Aron Baynes Det .519 10.7 8.6 .6 .45 .551 13.7 10.5 1.3 1.20
-.49 Nikola Jokic Den .549 13.5 9.7 4.2 1.17 .573 15.5 11.6 3.7 1.77
-.49 Andrew Bogut Dal .419 5.3 15.3 3.0 .84 GSW .617 8.9 11.6 4.5 1.55
-.47 Evan Turner Por .472 10.8 5.1 3.5 .47 Bos .507 12.9 5.8 5.8 .96
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 1516 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.47 Marcin Gortat Was .602 12.9 12.6 1.5 1.16 .583 15.5 11.9 1.7 1.57
-.46 Robert Covington Phl .443 10.4 6.2 1.3 .47 .536 15.0 7.5 1.6 .92
-.46 Monta Ellis Ind .515 11.9 3.8 4.4 .52 .499 15.0 3.5 5.2 .89
-.44 Ryan Anderson Hou .536 14.7 7.2 1.2 .72 NOP .539 18.5 7.0 1.2 1.10
-.44 Lavoy Allen Ind .327 3.3 6.1 2.2 -.04 .526 9.3 9.0 1.7 .73
-.43 Allen Crabbe Por .535 9.8 3.2 1.7 .13 .566 13.2 3.5 1.6 .52
-.42 J.R. Smith Cle .451 9.5 2.7 1.7 .27 .539 15.1 3.5 2.1 .78
-.41 Marvin Williams Cha .455 12.8 7.8 1.8 .76 .579 14.7 8.0 1.8 1.24
-.40 Paul Millsap Atl .508 19.1 9.2 4.0 1.57 .545 19.3 9.5 3.7 1.90
-.40 Cole Aldrich Min .532 6.6 9.9 1.1 .58 LAC .614 13.5 11.1 2.2 1.54
-.40 Ricky Rubio Min .494 8.0 5.0 8.0 .77 .515 11.3 5.3 9.7 1.32
This season on the left and last year on the right.
Ranked by eWins short of what they'd have produced if they were as good as last year.
Top of the list has a new leader:
Code: Select all
eW+ Giannis per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 1516 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.02 Antetokounmpo Mil .580 26.2 8.9 6.2 2.32 .554 17.0 8.0 4.0 1.43
.99 James Harden Hou .596 30.1 7.9 12.0 2.67 .584 26.3 5.8 7.0 1.95
.98 Jimmy Butler Chi .614 31.0 6.9 4.4 2.38 .550 20.2 5.0 4.3 1.54
.94 Anthony Davis NOP .591 33.9 10.1 2.1 2.78 .548 23.4 10.6 1.8 2.11
.90 George Hill Uta .657 28.3 4.0 5.0 2.00 Ind .549 13.0 4.2 3.8 .79
.71 Nick Young LAL .619 20.1 3.6 1.6 .96 .478 11.8 3.0 1.0 .20
.69 Russell Westbrook OkC .534 33.0 11.1 11.5 3.04 Okl .543 24.3 8.5 11.6 2.54
.65 Kemba Walker Cha .591 29.4 4.3 5.6 2.15 .545 21.4 4.5 5.6 1.62
.63 Mike Conley Mem .587 25.8 4.4 6.5 1.92 .529 17.5 3.5 6.7 1.37
.62 Avery Bradley Bos .547 19.0 7.4 2.9 1.27 .534 16.2 3.0 2.4 .78
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 1516 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.59 Kevin Durant GSW .668 32.4 8.5 5.6 2.82 Okl .622 28.1 8.5 5.3 2.36
.54 Jabari Parker Mil .524 21.7 6.6 2.5 1.38 .528 15.7 6.0 1.8 .88
.54 Dion Waiters Mia .450 16.6 3.9 4.5 .88 Okl .486 12.1 3.4 2.7 .37
.52 DeMarcus Cousins Sac .557 32.5 11.7 3.4 2.61 .525 25.9 11.7 3.2 2.20
.51 D'Angelo Russell LAL .528 21.1 4.7 6.4 1.36 .501 15.5 4.1 3.8 .65
.51 Otto Porter Was .597 17.1 8.8 1.6 1.39 .558 13.2 6.2 1.8 .94
.51 Rudy Gay Sac .559 21.8 6.9 3.2 1.49 .531 16.9 6.8 1.8 1.07
.47 Lou Williams LAL .582 23.6 3.1 4.6 1.39 .568 17.9 3.0 2.7 .88
.47 DeMar DeRozan Tor .549 30.7 5.5 4.4 2.06 .537 24.4 4.8 4.5 1.69
.46 Wilson Chandler Den .543 20.6 9.0 2.0 1.38 .519 15.6 6.8 1.9 .89
This is at .215 of the season
In 4 games since the previous issue, Giannis A has averaged 25.5 pts, 9.3 Reb, 7.5 Ast, 3 Stl, and 2 Blk.
Shooting .633 on FG and .828 FT.
Durant is enjoying career best PER (30.7), TS% (.681), DRb% (22.6), TRb% (13.3), Stl% (2.2), Blk% (3.5), TO% (10.3), WS/48 (.316) and BPM (9.3). His Ast% is also above his career avg (22 vs 18).
Both his 3fg% (.442) and his 2fg% (.621) are career highs, the latter being
.104 above his career avg.
A career high 11% of his shots have been dunks, and a near-high 26% of all shots are within 3' -- where he's shooting a career best .833.
FT% (.849) is career low. So what.
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 8:09 am
by Mike G
When we throw other summary metrics into the mix, we get alternative lists.
Converting PER and BPM to faux wins, plus WS, here's the average of 4 metrics' wins added over last season's rates.
Code: Select all
wins+ improved min tm PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM e484
1.24 Anthony Davis 675 NOP 32.6 .269 7.3 2.78 25.0 .160 2.2 2.11
1.14 Jimmy Butler 563 Chi 29.4 .320 8.1 2.38 21.3 .177 4.0 1.54
1.10 G Antetokounmpo 556 Mil 26.4 .205 8.8 2.32 18.8 .121 2.4 1.43
.98 George Hill 360 Uta 25.5 .286 7.0 2.00 13.2 .118 1.5 .79
.88 James Harden 664 Hou 29.5 .277 10.2 2.67 25.3 .204 6.7 1.95
.88 Nick Young 450 LAL 15.7 .132 .5 .96 9.1 .003 -4.8 .20
.76 Mike Conley 547 Mem 23.6 .221 6.4 1.92 19.4 .144 1.7 1.37
.76 DeMarcus Cousins 613 Sac 28.5 .205 5.9 2.61 23.6 .122 2.6 2.20
.66 Kemba Walker 599 Cha 25.6 .215 7.0 2.15 20.8 .165 4.0 1.62
.65 Myles Turner 483 Ind 21.1 .178 2.3 1.60 15.4 .109 -2.3 1.19
wins+ improved min tm PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM e484
.64 Otto Porter 548 Was 19.8 .192 4.5 1.39 14.5 .119 1.8 .94
.58 Russell Westbrook 673 OkC 30.6 .236 14.5 3.04 27.6 .245 10.0 2.54
.58 Chris Paul 599 LAC 28.1 .309 11.6 2.59 26.2 .253 7.8 2.24
.57 Marco Belinelli 459 Cha 13.1 .106 -.6 .69 9.4 .014 -4.2 .28
.55 Rudy Gay 589 Sac 19.5 .126 2.0 1.49 15.5 .078 -.4 1.07
.52 Kevin Love 507 Cle 25.6 .251 3.1 2.22 19.0 .169 2.5 1.85
.51 Beno Udrih 340 Det 15.7 .114 -.8 .89 9.5 .029 -4.8 .29
.46 Kevin Durant 620 GSW 30.7 .316 9.3 2.82 28.2 .270 7.9 2.36
.45 Dwight Howard 491 Atl 22.3 .197 2.8 2.03 18.9 .138 .6 1.63
.44 Zach LaVine 581 Min 16.6 .117 .2 1.11 14.3 .054 -1.4 .80
wins+ improved min tm PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM e484
.42 Lou Williams 447 LAL 22.9 .154 2.3 1.39 17.7 .119 .3 .88
.41 D'Angelo Russell 348 LAL 17.3 .058 1.0 1.36 13.2 .001 -1.8 .65
.40 Jabari Parker 522 Mil 17.9 .109 -.9 1.38 14.8 .072 -2.4 .88
.40 Wilson Chandler 463 Den 18.6 .128 .5 1.38 13.2 .071 .2 .89
.36 K Caldwell-Pope 629 Det 14.7 .116 2.8 .94 12.4 .092 1.1 .65
.36 DeMar DeRozan 618 Tor 26.4 .183 1.8 2.06 21.5 .169 1.4 1.69
These are just from my top 30 eW+ as seen above. Last year on the right (W Chandler is from 2014-15)
Isiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Gordon Hayward, Dion Waiters, and Harrison Barnes are omitted, as one or more metrics doesn't like them enough this year.
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:57 pm
by Nathan
Giannis currently has a BPM of +9.6. The youngest player in NBA history to post a BPM of +10 or greater was LeBron, who did it at age 23; Giannis would be a full year younger if he pulls it off this season. Do you all think this improvement is for real? Would you pick him over Davis and Towns to start a franchise? Is he more likely than not to go on to win MVP(s)?
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:07 pm
by rlee
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:53 pm
by rlee
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 12:39 am
by Mike G
At 28% of the season
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.53 G. Antetokounmpo Mil .578 25.2 9.4 6.3 2.47 .554 17.0 8.0 4.0 1.43
1.42 James Harden Hou .589 29.4 7.9 11.3 2.77 .584 26.3 5.8 7.0 1.95
1.40 Anthony Davis NOP .571 32.0 10.3 2.0 2.91 .548 23.4 10.6 1.8 2.11
1.36 Rus. Westbrook OkC .524 32.9 11.3 10.8 3.34 .543 24.3 8.5 11.6 2.54
1.28 Jimmy Butler Chi .588 29.0 6.7 3.9 2.31 .550 20.2 5.0 4.3 1.54
1.15 DeMarcus Cousins Sac .544 32.0 11.8 3.7 2.94 .525 25.9 11.7 3.2 2.20
1.09 Lou Williams LAL .599 27.1 3.3 4.2 1.72 .568 17.9 3.0 2.7 .88
1.03 DeMar DeRozan Tor .545 30.8 5.6 4.7 2.29 .537 24.4 4.8 4.5 1.69
1.02 Marc Gasol Mem .542 24.7 7.0 4.6 2.04 .519 17.4 7.6 3.9 1.40
0.98 George Hill Uta .657 28.4 4.1 4.9 2.11 Ind .549 13.0 4.2 3.8 .79
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.96 Gordon Hayward Uta .565 27.7 6.7 4.0 2.17 .548 21.2 5.4 3.8 1.40
.95 Jabari Parker Mil .530 22.5 6.4 2.5 1.55 .528 15.7 6.0 1.8 .88
.89 Kemba Walker Cha .573 28.1 4.0 5.9 2.19 .545 21.4 4.5 5.6 1.62
.89 Avery Bradley Bos .561 19.2 7.7 2.7 1.31 .534 16.2 3.0 2.4 .78
.86 Kevin Durant GSW .649 29.7 8.9 5.5 2.88 Okl .622 28.1 8.5 5.3 2.36
.76 Mike Conley Mem .587 25.9 4.2 6.5 2.04 .529 17.5 3.5 6.7 1.37
.72 Damian Lillard Por .588 28.7 4.9 5.4 2.07 .551 24.6 4.1 6.7 1.66
.69 Nick Young LAL .615 20.6 3.6 1.6 .95 .478 11.8 3.0 1.0 .20
.69 Harrison Barnes Dal .520 21.6 5.9 1.2 1.22 GSW .553 13.3 5.6 2.3 .81
.69 Kevin Love Cle .599 27.4 12.0 2.0 2.34 .544 19.0 11.9 2.9 1.85
Re: Improved players 2016-17
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:46 pm
by rlee