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Centers: "dying breed" but heavily represented in RPM top 40
Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 7:34 pm
by Crow
Currently 12 of the top 40 on RPM estimate are centers.
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM Instead of a proportional 20% share, it is 30% or 50% over-achievement. But so many teams and coaches go out of their way to not play centers. Didn't Mike G and / or somebody else show that centers
on average had the best RPM of any position? (or was it second best?) 35 are positive on RPM, 50% more than either of the much hyped guard positions.
Anyone done a raw plus minus analysis of average lineup performance with and without a listed Center league-wide? That would be an interesting additional piece of information. Or RAPM based, if Jerry was inclined.
Re: Centers: "dying breed" but heavily represented in RPM to
Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:44 pm
by sndesai1
but only 3 of top 20 (and of players with more than 1000 total minutes only 1 of top 20, though that's kind of circular since your point is that they don't get enough minutes)
also not surprising that centers on average are higher than guards if height is a drpm component (and not a negative orpm component)
regardless, rpm of guards and centers is not really the comparison to make - the comparison is are you better off playing a pg/sg/sf/pf/c, pg/sg/sf/pf/pf, or even a pg/sg/sf/sf/pf lineup?
i don't think too many teams are playing a pg/pg/sg/sf/pf lineup (unless one of their pgs is a shaun livingston type player who is basically a small forward)
pfs are 6 of the top 20 (and 7/20 for players > 1000 mins) - i also think they've had a higher rpm average than centers in past analysis
Re: Centers: "dying breed" but heavily represented in RPM to
Posted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:44 pm
by Mike G
Aggregate
2015-16 stats of those who played both last year and this year (before all star break) by position.
Code: Select all
pos ORPM DRPM RPM BPM WS/48 e484 PER %Min
C -.96 1.73 .77 .73 .136 1.40 17.9 .172
PF -.13 .73 .60 .25 .116 1.13 15.6 .197
SF .23 -.08 .14 .31 .096 .89 13.8 .204
SG .19 -1.07 -.88 -.61 .083 .76 13.4 .226
PG 1.07 -.75 .32 .61 .102 1.09 16.1 .201
Even when we weed out bit players, the bigs seem to get fewer combined minutes, while being more valuable?
SG look weakest but get the most minutes. Spacing!
Re: Centers: "dying breed" but heavily represented in RPM to
Posted: Sat Mar 04, 2017 4:07 pm
by xkonk
Guessing based on the high impact and low minutes, maybe coaches are only playing centers when they know they'll be successful. And/or, after a couple year trend towards "small ball", perhaps you have to be a pretty good center to get on the floor at all these days.
If it's the latter, you might expect an upward trend in average center performance over the past couple years, but if it's (more) the former the trend might be flat assuming coaches have been equally good over time at putting their players in good situations.
Re: Centers: "dying breed" but heavily represented in RPM to
Posted: Sat Mar 04, 2017 4:23 pm
by Crow
Looking at lineup performance for lineups used 200 plus minutes, almost all of the top 20 performers had a center. Only exceptions were with Draymond, Tristan and maybe one or two others depending on if you call Speights or Mason Plumlee a "true" center. It is where they almost always play.
If height is a drpm component (I don't remember or know for current practice), I would assume the data suggests / supports that.