APBRmetrics

2014 NBA Draft

Who, if anyone, from this draft class is going to get an extension this offseason? Only likely candidate would be Wiggins, right? Maybe Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Harris, or Clint Capela. For all the hype this draft class had, it has very under performed thus far though injuries to Embiid, Parker and Exum haven't helped that.

Get extension offer or good extension offer or a great one they take? I dunno. It is a few big men who have been better. Jokic, Capela.

You can say lots of these guys disappointed or the insiders making the picks were not very impressive / more terrible than usual or both.

Wiggins may be a case where conventional evaluation / thinking didn't aggregate total impact well. Draft evaluation and / or current evaluation. Star or super star in making based on per game stats, look, hype? RPM estimate has him at -1.6 in 4th year for 264th place on impact. Use that red flag or regret it later. Team results are consistent with RPM, not with the conventional hype narrative. In his case the main box score roll-up metrics agree that he hasn't improved much and isn't special. Even with a very usage, PER barely has him above average. BPM and Winshares / 48 have him below average like RPM does. I would have traded him before (like LeBron / Cavs did) or now. Or later. Probably still enough GMs out there with conventional evaluations that there will be a trade market for him after signing a huge deal. So maybe at this point you pretend he is who they mostly said he was / is until you get off that train in 1-3 years. But the longer the ride, more folks will get off before them and there is a chance the Wolves get left with him even longer with not enough good happening at team level.

Is Jokic up for a rookie extension? I know he signed a 4 year contract a year after all these others guys because he was overseas.

With Wiggins I would agree that he just isn't very good, but I'm worried the TWolves may have tricked themselves into thinking he is. Similar to Devin Booker in the 2015 class, his scoring and reputation far outpaces his impact. Wiggins was a huge failure for traditional scouting over analytics. I think he's going to be the new Jeff Green, always going to be a team thinking they can tap into his potential.

I think Gary Harris could get a good offer, but unless he's willing to take a decent pay cut per year he'll probably hold out for a better offer next summer. My model thinks he'll be worth $150 million the next 5 years, around the value of a 5 year max extension.

Also, I just want to make sure I'm doing my math right on what a max extension for these guys could be:

Max at 25% with 8% raises is $149.6 million over 5 years. Max at 30% with 8% raises is $179.5 over 5 years. Just want to make sure I'm thinking about it correctly. These are based on the $102 million salary cap estimate for 2018-19, first year these extensions would kick in.

This has been such a strange class from an evaluation perspective; lots of guys are either injured (Parker, Embiid) or have shown flashes but nothing consistent.

How much to give Noel?

Recent reports suggest max deal is coming.

His RPM went from -1 in previous season to +1 this season.

$25 mil. / yr.? I'd pass in almost any circumstance. $18 mil.? Depends on situation. Maybe a few could justify it. Mostly I'd just pass.

But Upside! I like Noel, but he's been healthy for one season, missed one entirely, and missed 20+ games in two. He's a bouncy, rangy center with decent production and intriguing potential, but I wouldn't be ready to give him the max yet. If he had been +1 for the past two years and been Tristan Thompson levels of healthy than sure, but he hasn't gotten there yet. I saw a report that multiple teams were ready to offer him max deals, probably a report from his agent, but I wouldn't be shocked if he actually gets pretty close. Mavs may be able to talk him down a bit for a player option on the 4th/5th year.

Deserving vs. getting a max rookie extension are pretty different in the current climate. Just about any reasonably productive/promising young player will likely get one. To put an idea with it, KCP and Porter are most certainly getting one from the 2013 class, and guys like Roberson rumored to be getting upward of $15 million a year possibly with Crabbe getting $17 mil last offseason too.

I'd say Wiggins isn't worth it now but will get one off of potential and price paid, though I'd be wary of him as my franchise player. Jokic I think is up for one, and will either get a max extension this year or next. I assume Orlando waits on Gordon and Boston waits on Smart.

The guys who really interest me are the injured group of Embiid, Lavine, and Parker. If healthy they'd all be essentially locks for a max contract, but given history I don't know what the teams do.

I'd be shocked if Roberson gets ~$15 million this offseason, there's a lot less money to go around than last. Maybe more like $10-12 at most.

I'd think the Wolves low-ball Wiggins to see if he'll take a discount for guaranteed money, but I'd be surprised if they can reach a deal.

You think LaVine is on pace for a max? Not sure I can see that, but there's still a lot of debate on his value given that BPM and RPM disagree so much. I can't see LaVine AND Wiggins getting maxed. Neither has been good enough to deserve it by themselves let alone both of them.

I also don't think Jokic is up for one this year. He came over a year after being drafted, plus he was a second round pick so he'll be Arenas limited, right?

It's a very interesting rookie extension class. The guys who would be the obvious locks all have some major injury concern. Top overall pick has disappointed. No obvious, healthy candidates to get any extension let alone a max level.

Rumor I heard was Roberson turned down 4/48 a year ago, and there's a ton of money around still. I don't doubt a team like Denver or Brooklyn just messing w/ OKC to see if they pry a guy away.

In general, 2 rules of late:

1. Whatever you think a guy is worth, add about 4 mil and that's the new market.
2. For RFAs everything goes up in price. Crabbe and Johnson were the 2 big ones last year, but many more.

Personally as an OKC fan I'm okay with Roberson up to about 15/year, any more is too much.

There was a lot more money last season than this, and teams have been scorned by those big bloated contracts already. I'd expect teams to be a bit more frugal with their money this time around. The market is still wildly inflated, but teams are more weary. If Roberson gets a Crabbe offer sheet, $17-18 mil per year, you think OKC lets him walk? Doesn't send the best message to Westbrook with him having a player option after this season.

If he gets that big an offer I don't see a way they can match. Their cap sheet is at $140 million with holds right now. They've got Dipo/Adams/Kanter at 20/25/18 mil respectively, add Roberson and you've got a team in the repeater tax that may not make the 2nd round with no way to improve.