APBRmetrics

Rookie contacts have been relative good to great values and will still be even with increase in the pay scale. But what # pick or above do you need to have to on average beat neutral production value over the life of the rookie contract? Is it #10? #5? Higher? I know restricted free agency rights are valuable in long-run but right now I am focused on how much a rookie contract actually helps on the court during the first timespan. Answer may be not much, if any DIRECTLY and more for bench than starters. May help you be comparatively less bad off bench and cheaper but the heavy lifting is still getting positive impact now lead guys at good to great impact / pay ratio.

I think I saw that young players improve about 1 point on RPM per year on average. So to beat net neutral over the first 4 years, the young player either needs to start at -1 instead of typical first year -3 or get better faster than 1 point per year. To beat net neutral. To be a major impact during first contract, start even better or get better faster or both.

So this shows up http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/1968 ... -nba-draft
It is for years 2-5 but adjusting slightly it would appear that about 15 would be cumulatively (or on average) positive in years 1-4 but only about 5 would be on average plus 1 or better. So either uses these guys instead of scrubs or more expensive role players or wait til second contract for much impact but presumably and unfortunately mostly at market prices, which will often be too high to produce good value ratios. Draft picks per se aren't the route to intermediate or long term success (above average results), it is above average draft picks, by pick # or a great eye, or great, unusual contract signings. Not the main, normal game but the quirks, edges, black swans.