APBRmetrics

Good squad. No real holes. They get a little weird at SG/SF, but they should be able to adjust based on matchups. I'd be interested to see a Westbrook-Roberson-George-Patterson-Adams lineup.

"Talent" is your metric? Whether yes or no, reminder of how calculated?

Crow wrote:"Talent" is your metric? Whether yes or no, reminder of how calculated?

I probably should have just made my own thread and dumped teams in one by one, but yes "Talent" is my metric. 50/50 split of WS/48 and BPM, three years of data. I think I weighted it 6/3/1 but honestly, I don't remember off the top of my head.

Thanks. I forget easily when there are multiple models in use and on display.

Did you forget about Terrance Ferguson or do you just not project him to play at all?

jgoldstein34 wrote:Did you forget about Terrance Ferguson or do you just not project him to play at all?

Forgot. His contract wasn't listed on Spotrac yet, so I'm guessing he hasn't officially signed. Good eye.

I don't think he has signed yet, he'll rate at best as replacement so it's not a big miss lol.

They might not sign him to regular deal, forcing 2way deal? straight d league or overseas.

Felton might be kept to 10-14 with some Christon, Abrines at PG and / or George as ballhamdler. Some chance for Daniel Hamilton or other.

I mean, he's a 1st round pick so I think they're limited to what they can offer him. As far as I can understand it, the Thunder would have to renounce his rights before agreeing to anything outside of the rookie scale and I don't think Ferguson would be in favor of that unless they offer him more money, so I don't think they can actually offer a two-way.

I suppose they could do what they did with Josh Huestis, but that was agreed to with Huestis as a condition for drafting him in the 1st round before the draft happened. I don't see any reason to think they won't sign Ferguson, just haven't yet for cap purposes.

Before last night's game, OKC-Hou, they were doing video clips of the Thunder weakness in covering opponent 3-point shooters. Frequently it was Adams closing out, leaving the team vulnerable to OReb by the other team.
It was mentioned they've been worse since Andre Roberson went down for the season. He was a great perimeter defender.
Here's a season breakdown of OKC defensive (opponent) numbers with and without Roberson. He also missed 8 games in Jan. before returning for just 5 more.The last column shows the decisive 4.7 pts/100 lapse on defense. Just about half of that would come in an extra .75 3FG/G by opponents; they also get another ORb and 2 fewer TO.

Also, JVG mentioned turnovers by a player being relative to his "usage", and not indicative of higher Team TO.

Too bad that suggested Westbrook-Roberson-George-Patterson-Adams lineup got less than 27 minutes for season, if any, testing. Injuries played a major role but might not have gotten too much test anyway cuz of Melo commitments.

Thunder make playoffs on a 4th quarter burst in next to last game. That is cutting it close. Next season? Uncertainty but more likely down than even the same.

Upside? From what? I guess the return of Roberson, if he can be same player. I highly doubt George stay; so on net, I expect slippage, a little or a lot. Depends on how much Westbrook might slip. Grant is probably gone. Melo will slip another level or two. Hope for Abrines and Ferguson? Not from me. They might not be as bad but they aren't much to hope on imo. Main hope will be with low cost contract guys. Could work if properly picked. Clear out as much of the roster baggage as possible.

Making the playoffs in the west probably gets a bit tougher. The win total to get in might be lower from fewer gimme games. The fight for 8th seed could quite a brawl with more teams potentially involved.

Ferguson finishes 10 games of season playing worse than earlier. Like in Australia. 6th worst RPM for SGs with both offensive and defensive impacts looking bad. Potential? Maybe. Moments, I guess. Good pick? Doesn't seem like it, yet. Shooting isn't bad but passing & rebounding are close to non-existent.

Corey Brewer went from dropping out of rotation in LA to starting for OKC. In 15 games as a starter, he's averaged 30 minutes: Roberson had gotten 26.6.
His BPM and WS/48 are career highs. His offense amounts to corner 3-pointers, where he hits 38%. Elsewhere at the arc, he's 2/13.
On layups he makes 56%, but other than dunks he's under 50%.
Between 3 ft and 23', he's hit 3 of 10 in 18 OKC games.
He still plays a scrappy defense, and his Stl% is at a career high; Ast% and TO% are career lows; ORtg, 3PAr at career highs.

Has he found his niche? Is he an impact player?
Most of his career playoff minutes are from 2015 with Houston. Nothing special yet in postseason thru age 31.

RAPM wasn't a fan of Brewer this year. -0.26 ORAPM, -1.22 DRAPM, -1.48 overall.