2017-18 team win projection contest

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RyanRiot
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:26 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by RyanRiot » Sat Apr 14, 2018 6:39 pm

Obviously a great return to form for 538's preseason predictions, but how do we feel about their playoff predictions? Some of the probabilities they're giving look a little funky, probably due to underrating teams lile the Warriors and Cavs who've lost a bunch of regular season games to bad teams because they don't really care about the regular season.

sndesai1
Posts: 132
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:00 pm

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by sndesai1 » Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:52 am

yeah, their playoff predictions are not good and i think they know that. i don't know if there's a good way to get around the issue when they want to base their stuff on elo...

shadow
Posts: 204
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by shadow » Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:54 pm

I don't think you can reasonably expect anyone to come up with a model that consistently beats Vegas when they're predominantly using team level data, regardless of the specific ratings methodology they utilize. Even the opening line routinely beats just about every computer team level rating at ThePredictionTracker in terms of absolute and MSE each season.

sndesai1
Posts: 132
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:00 pm

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by sndesai1 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:30 pm

i didn't expect them to beat vegas, but they're wildly off-market with the warriors ~5% to win a title. it seems that's partially because their method is so recency driven

shadow
Posts: 204
Joined: Fri May 29, 2015 3:38 am

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Post by shadow » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:27 pm

Gotcha. I agree. The recency weighting they use does seem a bit extreme. You would think the CARMELO portion of the CARM-ELO ratings, which project team strength based on their individual player RPM/BPM blend ratings, would boost the Warriors overall rating a bit more, but that doesn't appear to be happening.

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