2017-18 quick observations

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Crow
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Re: 2017-18 quick observations

Post by Crow » Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:36 pm

By several boxscore metrics, Brown and Tatum were pretty average in their large playoff roles. RAPM estimate nice for Tatum, barely above neutral for Brown. Both shot and scored pretty well but neither was that strong at rebounding or assists. Takeaways were alright but not high.

Horford lead the way, as he should for that salary. But what about next season?

Past the first 6, all the rest of Celtics had weak raw team plus minus. Assembled on the cheap. Need better.

Mike G
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Re: 2017-18 quick observations

Post by Mike G » Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:39 am

shadow wrote:Playoff RAPM updated through game 3 of Finals:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
It seems to be updated thru the end of the Finals. Good job!
The Cavs won 12 of 22 games but only 9.7 in Pythagorean wins. And they total just 8.4 in these RAPM Wins. How does that work?
Dubs total not quite 13, instead of 16 or 16.6

Is it unusual that no player has negative RAPM Wins?
The spread of RAPM is pretty tight, with only Rodney Hood and Luc Mbah a Moute below -2; and even they have positive R Wins.

A close fit with the R Wins column is made by the formula:
RW = Min*(RAPM+2.28)/1540

The Cavs are still topsy-turvy in correlation between Min. and D-RAPM. LeBron is their worst defensive player until #10 Rodney Hood. Tristan and JR are next-worst, while Korver is best?

shadow
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Re: 2017-18 quick observations

Post by shadow » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:37 pm

I'm not exactly sure how JE has setup his playoff RAPM calculations, but I kept the lambda value at 3000 (which I believe is the typical value used in regular season RAPM) when I ran it for the playoffs. That is what's contributing to the tighter spread in ratings and slightly lower than expected win totals, since even the players on the Cavs and Warriors only played around 25% of the minutes they would play in a full regular season. I suppose I could try running it with a lambda of say 750 (3000/4), but that may lead to some pretty low minute players shooting way up the ratings, since nearly half of the players played only 4-7 games at the most and some had even fewer if they only played in select first round games.

Update:

I was using too high of a value for replacement level in my regular season RAPM wins formula and had copied it over to the playoff sheet. I had it set to -1.65 ORAPM and -0.6 DRAPM for some reason. According to the link below, I should be using -2.65 for ORAPM and -0.6 for DRAPM. The RAPM wins numbers per team match up a little better with the pythag wins now. I also read that the method I use for calculating RAPM wins isn't going to match up perfectly with pythag wins because my method assumes wins scale linearly with point differential, whereas the pythag method applies diminishing returns at the extremes.

http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/2012/n ... ent-level/

shadow
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Re: 2017-18 quick observations

Post by shadow » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:19 pm

Here is vanilla RAPM for 2017-18 with regular season and playoffs combined, in case anyone is interested:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

Crow
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Re: 2017-18 quick observations

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:18 pm

It makes sense to have reg. season, playoffs and combination. Some values are going to be flukey in each. Might be able to find those cases and guess how to interpret them better with 3 datasets than just 1-2. Maybe you end up less certain about player values but that is probably appropriate.

Crow
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Re: 2017-18 quick observations

Post by Crow » Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:56 pm

What grade would you give Magic and most responsible staff for "player development"? I'd give meh to low marks for work on at least 10 guys. Even the few decent players didn't change / develop much, I don't think.

Payton gone, a failure to develop. Hezonja, not much and too late. Gordon, hot month then fade back to nothing special. Issac's development seems way overstated / pre-mature to me. Lots of other weak play / failure to develop. But perhaps they are satisfied? I can't see how.

Mike G
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Re: 2017-18 quick observations

Post by Mike G » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:25 pm

Among #9 thru #11 draft picks in the last 34 years -- 102 players, 98 who have played minutes --Elfrid Payton (drafted #10) ranks in per game averages:
#29 in Minutes
#34 in points
#45 in rebounds
#2 in assists (barely, after Pooh Richardson)
#9 in steals
#57 in blocks -- nearly median in his weakest area

In 2FG% he's #46, in 3fg% he's #56. And in WS/48 he's just #75, .064
But at age 24, his best years should be ahead of him. Unless he's not developing at all.
In 3.6 years in Orlando:

Code: Select all

year  ORtg  DRtg   PER   TS%  WS/48  BPM
2015    97  107   13.8  .456  .044  -0.7
2016   100  108   13.9  .478  .050  -1.3
2017   107  111   17.2  .520  .088   0.9
2018   109  110   18.1  .564  .104   1.1
That looks like steady improvement across the board, until he cratered in 19 games in Phx.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... oel01.html
Usg% has grown steadily from 18 to 22%

Crow
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Re: 2017-18 quick observations

Post by Crow » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:33 pm

Thanks for the info. I didn't check as far as I should have.

This part I knew: On RPM he was, in his 4th season, 69th among PGs at -2.06. 1 point worse on both offense and defense from previous season (which was his best at neutral impact). This season was the clearcut worst RPM marks of his career.

So two different perspectives. To compare and perhaps blend.

Other boxscore stats: TO rates pretty high most years including last season. Very inconsistent and usually bad to awful 3pt fg% thru the years.

Even though it was after he left Orlando, by far worst winshares per 48 of career to finish season in PHX. Near worst PER. Worst BPM. Whatever development that occurred didn't travel out with him.

For career, below average player on RPM, WS/48, BPM. Just barely above average on PER thanks to usage and role driven assists.

I guess if you start so horribly on shooting and scoring efficiency you can improve but the development project didn't achieve as much compared to an average player.

In the end a high draft pick gets traded for a 2nd rounder then signed to a 2nd contract at a price well below league average salary. Not the developement that Payton or Magic wanted.

Crow
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Re: 2017-18 quick observations

Post by Crow » Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:22 pm

Often 2 or more ways to look at something. 1. Celtics one game from finals. Or 2... Very dependent on seeding / home court. Just one road win in playoffs, a win in last 3 seconds of overtime (against Sixers). Beat the Bucks in an all home court win series. A team with a glaring inability to offensive rebound. Next the Sixers got pretty icy from the field. How much was it because of Celtics' D? Hard to separate. Then took Cavs to 7 but couldn't manage a road win. Shot poorly against a usually poor defensive team.

It is over but how impressive was last playoffs? Two ways to look at it... I'd say their margin for accomplishing what they did was thin. If Raptors or Sixers get seeding edge against them next spring, that could be pivotal. I dunno what is average but I'd think team that make or win finals probably get more than 1 road win.

Crow
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Re: 2017-18 quick observations

Post by Crow » Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:11 am

Looking at by position matchup data, the Celtics were mostly average except at PG and a bit positive at SG. The bench was average.

If the opponent either was above average at shooting efficiency or defensive shot efg% the Celtics only managed to win 52% of those regular season games.

Hayward probably will help some but maybe not as much as many are anticipating. There will still be pockets of meh, by position and certain team stats.

Last season gives a lot of incentive to fix Morris and Ojeleye or play them less or trade them.

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