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Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:54 pm
by Mike G
Improvement over last season, based on:
(e484'18 - e484'17)*Min/484
This yields an estimate of wins a player has produced, in addition to what he'd have done at last year's rates.
Sabonis is on pace to earn 8.8 eWins this year; last year he had 1.0
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '17: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.72 D Sabonis Ind .633 18.4 15.2 4.2 1.91 OKC .466 9.8 6.7 1.9 .31
.56 Evan Fournier Orl .680 25.1 5.1 4.4 1.84 .546 18.3 3.5 3.0 .83
.48 Aaron Gordon Orl .663 24.9 10.1 3.0 2.14 .523 15.0 6.5 2.2 .89
.47 Victor Oladipo Ind .615 28.6 4.9 4.1 1.88 OKC .529 17.2 4.9 3.0 .97
.45 Steven Adams OkC .687 20.7 11.0 2.0 1.99 .577 14.2 9.7 1.4 .97
.45 Clint Capela Hou .714 21.9 17.7 2.0 2.70 .628 18.9 12.7 1.8 1.71
.39 Jaylen Brown Bos .558 20.0 6.7 1.1 1.18 .531 12.2 5.9 1.8 .45
.38 Eric Gordon Hou .567 26.8 2.5 3.9 1.45 .552 16.7 3.1 3.2 .77
.36 Darren Collison Ind .637 17.4 3.7 8.5 1.62 Sac .563 15.8 2.9 5.4 .93
.35 Giannis A Mil .648 31.7 11.6 5.0 2.93 .586 24.1 9.7 5.4 2.35
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '17: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.35 Otto Porter Was .655 20.0 8.3 2.4 1.93 .623 15.0 7.6 1.7 1.08
.35 K Porzingis NYK .549 29.7 8.9 1.2 2.03 .538 19.2 8.0 1.5 1.31
.34 S Dinwiddie Brk .582 16.0 3.9 8.1 1.47 .566 10.6 4.2 4.7 .56
.34 D.J. Augustin Orl .611 13.7 3.2 9.0 1.39 .515 13.1 2.7 4.3 .47
.32 Terry Rozier Bos .479 14.2 7.2 4.0 1.38 .462 9.4 6.2 3.7 .58
With e484, or eWins per 484 minutes, average = 1.00
The East has 12 of the top 15 improvers, 16 of the top 20 in fact.
Those on the bottom of the pile are still getting minutes despite big dropoffs in production.
Durant is not shooting worse, just a lot less. Less passing and rebounding, more turnovers.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '17: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.55 Kevin Durant GSW .646 23.0 7.9 5.0 1.82 .638 28.2 9.2 5.9 2.74
-.52 George Hill Sac .536 13.1 3.8 2.9 .32 Uta .589 22.8 4.2 5.1 1.62
-.49 Jimmy Butler Min .523 15.7 5.5 3.7 .99 Chi .571 24.6 6.1 5.0 2.05
-.44 James Harden Hou .552 27.7 5.0 10.2 2.26 .597 28.6 8.2 11.9 2.90
-.36 Patty Mills SAS .387 8.6 1.7 4.2 -.11 .573 16.2 2.9 5.8 1.02
-.36 Dwyane Wade Cle .439 10.7 3.1 6.0 .51 Chi .500 22.1 5.5 4.7 1.64
-.35 Jae Crowder Cle .480 9.0 4.9 1.2 .17 Bos .603 15.3 6.8 2.6 .99
-.34 Dario Saric Phl .413 8.8 6.6 2.0 .12 .501 15.5 8.8 2.9 .99
-.32 Jrue Holiday NOP .524 13.4 4.8 5.9 .84 .526 16.7 4.3 8.0 1.37
-.31 R Westbrook OkC .531 23.7 11.4 14.3 2.90 .542 34.1 11.5 10.4 3.55
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '17: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.29 DeMar DeRozan Tor .545 24.6 3.7 4.9 1.65 .541 30.4 5.6 4.3 2.26
-.29 Wilson Chandler Den .496 9.0 4.7 3.9 .42 .539 16.0 7.6 2.4 1.01
-.29 Dirk Nowitzki Dal .502 14.9 8.7 2.6 1.01 .524 19.9 9.9 2.1 1.62
-.28 Kyle Lowry Tor .489 14.0 6.6 8.4 1.43 .611 25.0 4.9 6.9 2.03
-.27 Jeff Teague Min .538 13.9 3.8 8.2 1.05 Ind .562 17.7 4.8 8.5 1.55
Westbrook shots and minutes are both down. He's one rebound short of 3-D again this year.
These numbers do not include last night's games.
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:03 pm
by Mike G
At 13% of the season. Porzingis zips into contention.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.78 D Sabonis Ind .643 18.4 14.2 4.0 1.70 OkC .466 9.8 6.7 1.9 .31
.60 K Porzingis NYK .596 32.5 8.8 1.1 2.20 .538 19.2 8.0 1.5 1.31
.56 Aaron Gordon Orl .664 22.4 9.6 2.5 1.84 .523 15.0 6.5 2.2 .89
.52 Evan Fournier Orl .630 22.3 4.8 4.1 1.50 .546 18.3 3.5 3.0 .83
.52 Jaylen Brown Bos .533 18.0 7.7 1.3 1.11 .531 12.2 5.9 1.8 .45
.48 Brandon Ingram LAL .523 16.7 5.3 2.6 .90 .467 10.0 5.0 2.4 .26
.44 Clint Capela Hou .697 20.6 16.9 2.1 2.52 .628 18.9 12.7 1.8 1.71
.44 Eric Gordon Hou .580 25.9 3.0 4.1 1.41 .552 16.7 3.1 3.2 .77
.41 Steven Adams OkC .696 17.7 10.0 1.7 1.62 .577 14.2 9.7 1.4 .97
.37 Jordan Clarkson LAL .585 25.3 4.0 4.6 1.46 .522 16.1 3.6 2.9 .68
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.37 S Dinwiddie Brk .537 13.9 4.2 7.9 1.30 .566 10.6 4.2 4.7 .56
.37 Otto Porter Was .677 19.0 7.5 2.0 1.67 .623 15.0 7.6 1.7 1.08
.36 Tyreke Evans Mem .598 24.7 6.4 3.9 1.82 Sac .494 16.8 6.1 5.2 1.23
.36 Victor Oladipo Ind .570 24.6 4.8 3.8 1.41 OkC .529 17.2 4.9 3.0 .97
.36 Terry Rozier Bos .469 13.3 7.2 3.6 1.18 .462 9.4 6.2 3.7 .58
.36 Reggie Jackson Det .544 21.4 4.9 8.1 1.78 .505 19.9 3.0 6.4 1.23
.36 Jarrett Jack NYK .411 6.4 5.2 7.5 .54 NOP .750 7.1 .0 4.9 -.21
.35 Ed Davis Por .507 11.3 15.2 1.1 1.29 .548 8.5 11.0 1.2 .49
.34 Isaiah Taylor Atl .549 12.6 3.0 4.6 .57 Hou .188 1.0 1.9 2.2 -.59
.34 DJ Augustin Orl .611 13.5 3.2 8.5 1.38 .515 13.1 2.7 4.3 .47
J Jack was virtually out of the league last year, getting 33 minutes for the Pelicans. Now at 34 yrs, he's the starting PG for a playoff-looking team.
East has 13 of the top 20 improvers, and 4 of those they swiped from the West.
Over the last 5 games, Westbrook has hit .419 inside the arc and .276 from beyond.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.82 R Westbrook OkC .498 22.7 10.3 12.2 2.40 .542 34.1 11.5 10.4 3.55
-.77 Jimmy Butler Min .520 13.9 5.5 4.1 .89 Chi .571 24.6 6.1 5.0 2.05
-.60 George Hill Sac .511 11.6 4.3 3.1 .27 Uta .589 22.8 4.2 5.1 1.62
-.60 Kevin Durant GSW .652 24.5 8.1 5.8 1.99 .638 28.2 9.2 5.9 2.74
-.51 Jrue Holiday NOP .475 11.9 4.9 6.1 .76 .526 16.7 4.3 8.0 1.37
-.48 DeMar DeRozan Tor .560 26.2 4.2 4.2 1.58 .541 30.4 5.6 4.3 2.26
-.45 Dirk Nowitzki Dal .488 14.1 8.5 2.1 .87 .524 19.9 9.9 2.1 1.62
-.45 Wilson Chandler Den .497 9.2 5.0 2.9 .35 .539 16.0 7.6 2.4 1.01
-.44 Jae Crowder Cle .509 9.6 5.0 1.1 .26 Bos .603 15.3 6.8 2.6 .99
-.43 Kyle Lowry Tor .506 14.5 6.5 8.3 1.35 .611 25.0 4.9 6.9 2.03
If Holiday returns to form, his team has
3 above-avg players.
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:23 pm
by Mike G
The 9 most improved according to eWins, in other summary rates, last year and this year:
Code: Select all
'17-'18 PER PER WS/48 WS/48 BPM BPM
Sabonis 6.9 21.2 .022 .182 -4.9 2.7
Porzingis 17.5 29.1 .100 .211 .2 1.4
A Gordon 14.5 23.4 .076 .233 -.7 5.2
Fournier 14.0 20.5 .059 .180 -1.3 4.4
J Brown 10.3 13.5 .053 .133 -4.0 -.9
Ingram 8.6 13.1 -.007 .072 -4.0 -1.1
Capela 21.5 28.6 .185 .305 1.0 6.1
E Gordon 13.2 18.8 .079 .141 -1.4 -.3
S Adams 16.5 22.8 .129 .251 .5 6.3
It also matters how many minutes they've played. Here are the
improvements -- yr2 - yr1 -- in several stats:
Code: Select all
improved tm Min TS% e484 PER WS/48 BPM
Sabonis Ind 269 .188 1.40 14.3 .160 7.6
Porzingis NYK 330 .061 .88 11.6 .111 1.2
A Gordon Orl 286 .143 .96 8.9 .157 5.9
Fournier Orl 372 .081 .67 6.5 .121 5.7
J Brown Bos 380 .004 .66 3.2 .080 3.1
Ingram LAL 365 .059 .64 4.5 .079 2.9
Capela Hou 266 .068 .81 7.1 .120 5.1
E Gordon Hou 330 .028 .64 5.6 .062 1.1
S Adams OkC 308 .118 .65 6.3 .122 5.8
Sabonis has the largest improvement in each column, most of them by a large margin.
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:31 pm
by rlee
Three takes on Capela's improvement in today's BI:
Basketball Intelligence: Today's Best NBA Reporting And Analysis:
http://basketballintelligence.net/2017/ ... is-111417/
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:22 pm
by Mike G
Most improved thru 23.3% of the season:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.16 D Sabonis Ind .599 18.0 12.6 3.2 1.53 OkC .466 9.8 6.7 1.9 .31
1.05 Jaylen Brown Bos .553 19.3 7.2 1.5 1.24 .531 12.2 5.9 1.8 .45
.91 Victor Oladipo Ind .563 24.8 5.7 4.1 1.67 OkC .529 17.2 4.9 3.0 .97
.82 K Porzingis NYK .567 28.9 8.4 1.2 2.02 .538 19.2 8.0 1.5 1.31
.80 S Dinwiddie Brk .539 15.6 4.0 8.5 1.48 .566 10.6 4.2 4.7 .56
.76 Brandon Ingram LAL .500 15.1 5.5 3.1 .84 .467 10.0 5.0 2.4 .26
.70 Aaron Gordon Orl .610 18.9 9.1 2.3 1.47 .523 15.0 6.5 2.2 .89
.69 Kyle Anderson SAS .562 12.8 8.4 4.3 1.28 .518 8.5 7.3 3.3 .64
.66 Clint Capela Hou .663 19.3 17.2 2.3 2.36 .628 18.9 12.7 1.8 1.71
.64 T.J. Warren Phx .531 20.8 6.8 1.5 1.37 .534 15.5 6.1 1.3 .86
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.62 L Aldridge SAS .553 25.1 9.4 2.7 2.03 .525 20.0 8.6 2.4 1.56
.62 Kelly Oubre Was .554 13.9 7.1 1.0 .78 .510 9.5 5.8 1.0 .22
.58 Kyrie Irving Bos .579 30.1 3.8 6.8 2.42 Cle .573 26.5 3.4 6.5 1.98
.57 Terry Rozier Bos .501 14.5 6.8 3.4 1.13 .462 9.4 6.2 3.7 .58
.57 Otto Porter Was .640 18.5 8.2 1.8 1.54 .623 15.0 7.6 1.7 1.08
.53 Jordan Clarkson LAL .559 23.2 3.6 3.9 1.30 .522 16.1 3.6 2.9 .68
.52 Jerami Grant OkC .568 13.9 6.3 1.5 .79 .544 9.3 4.7 1.0 .20
.51 D Valentine Chi .503 12.2 6.0 3.1 .73 .490 9.4 5.2 2.1 .20
.48 Omri Casspi GSW .653 14.6 10.1 3.0 1.35 Min .518 9.1 6.3 1.9 .29
.48 Pascal Siakam Tor .568 13.1 7.8 3.1 1.11 .518 9.9 8.3 .8 .50
Evan Fournier (Orl) was #4 at last report, and in 17 days since, he's dropped out of the top 30.
His last year numbers, this year up to Nov. 9, and since then:
Code: Select all
Gms mpg TS% TRb% Ast% Stl% ORtg DRtg GmSc
2017 32.9 .555 5.1 14.8 1.5 106 114 10.8
1-11 33.8 .636 7.4 17.2 2.2 116 106 15.7
12-20 29.2 .547 4.2 12.5 1.1 105 120 9.3
Every stat has regressed to last year's level and beyond. Magics were 7-4, 1-8 since.
Kyle Anderson (SAS) is #8 now, after being nowhere in sight 17 days ago. He's stepped up before in Kawhi's absence.
Code: Select all
Gms TS% Ast% Stl% Usg% ORtg DRtg GmSc
17RS .525 12.2 2.5 12.1 107 100 3.8
17PO .603 20.7 2.4 16.7 125 113 5.9
1-11 .523 12.8 1.6 13.8 113 103 8.3
12-19 .628 23.1 2.2 15.8 124 100 12.2
And Jaylen Brown (Bos), also stepping up for an injured star.
Code: Select all
Gms TS% Ast% Stl% TO% Usg% ORt DRt GmSc
1617 .539 7.2 1.3 12.5 18.1 100 110 4.3
17PO .539 9.9 1.4 14.1 19.4 97 119 3.2
1-13 .523 4.5 1.4 10.0 21.3 97 98 9.2
14-20 .631 8.0 2.6 9.6 22.1 115 101 13.6
Not much to suggest he was gonna bust out; but he has.
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2017 10:25 pm
by Mike G
In the West, 100 of 184 returning players have diminished from last season, for a total of -5.6 eWins added.
The East sees 90 of 182 with improved rates, totaling +10.1 eWins.
22 players who moved from East to West net -1.8 "improvement eWins".
And 27 players going W to E have netted +5.3. This is more than half of the East's total improvements.
The seriously improved seriously outnumber the dis-improved in this latter group:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '17: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.16 Sabonis Ind .599 18.0 12.6 3.2 1.53 OkC .466 9.8 6.7 1.9 .31
.91 Oladipo Ind .563 24.8 5.7 4.1 1.67 OkC .529 17.2 4.9 3.0 .97
.80 Jack NYK .468 7.5 4.7 8.2 .63 NOP .750 7.1 .0 4.9 -.21
.47 I Taylor Atl .556 12.2 2.4 4.6 .49 Hou .188 1.0 1.9 2.2 -.59
.41 D Collison Ind .577 14.5 3.4 7.7 1.24 Sac .563 15.8 2.9 5.4 .93
.35 D' Russell Brk .531 25.1 5.8 7.6 1.71 LAL .512 18.4 4.6 5.6 1.20
.33 Dunn Chi .457 13.3 6.2 4.5 .69 Min .428 6.4 4.6 4.7 .23
.32 Crabbe Brk .556 14.4 5.0 1.9 .68 Por .596 12.8 3.5 1.4 .36
.28 J Simmons Orl .567 18.1 4.0 2.5 .74 SAS .496 11.9 4.1 3.3 .47
.24 Nwaba Chi .585 11.1 9.0 1.4 .95 LAL .597 9.9 5.4 1.1 .27
eW+ per36 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '17: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.23 Galloway Det .615 15.9 4.0 1.8 .82 Sac .507 12.1 3.5 2.0 .36
.23 Dedmon Atl .654 16.7 12.0 2.0 1.38 SAS .633 11.6 14.0 1.3 1.15
.23 Tolliver Det .590 13.3 5.3 2.2 .77 Sac .588 10.5 6.0 1.7 .37
.14 Kanter NYK .660 19.9 15.2 1.9 1.92 OkC .587 23.7 10.9 1.5 1.76
...
-.13 Afflalo Orl .429 4.8 4.6 1.7 -.21 Sac .552 11.2 3.1 1.7 .17
-.29 Bledsoe Mil .464 16.4 5.3 5.7 1.16 Phx .550 22.7 5.4 6.4 1.71
Jarrett Jack inflates the total somewhat, relative to his 33 minutes last year.
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:27 am
by Crow
RPM (and similar) are the only metrics adjusted, implicitly, by opponent quality FOR SEASON. EWins adjusted by opponent game performance.
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:54 am
by Mike G
Yes, and I don't foresee going into play-by-play, since I want a stat that is more applicable in the bygone century.
Among boxscore-based stats, eWins does account for opponent quality by using games started to estimate the fraction of a player's opponents which have been starters.
So for example, Valanciunas starts every game but only goes 20 mpg. So a formula estimates 86% of the others on the court with him have been starting-caliber players.
If he got his stats while coming off the bench, his estimated Sta% is just .47, and his eW/484 subsequently drops from 1.64 to 1.36
It's my opinion that WinShares, BPM, and PER could all benefit from such an adjustment. And they might not even have to estimate Sta%.
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:13 pm
by Crow
Yes, you adjust more than the well known box score metrics and your discussion shows how context insensitive the common box score metrics are, compared to yours and especially RPM, which many (including many of the prominent and / or insiders) hesitate to use and instead rely on context unstated / unadjusted / unconsidered for their insensitivity boxscore metrics or raw stats and maybe eyetests faced with all the same issues that they don't talk about or seem as concerned by.
S Adams, a most improved here; but on RPM it is down from earlier in season, down from last season and down from his earlier peak before getting the huge early extension, before the league shifted away from traditions centers (and maybe wrongfully overall, on average).
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:48 pm
by Mike G
At 30% of the season, increase in eWins over last year's rates, in this year's minutes.
Current season on the left, last year stats on the right.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.32 D Sabonis Ind .586 17.2 12.7 3.0 1.42 OkC .466 9.8 6.7 1.9 .31
1.26 V Oladipo Ind .582 25.1 5.8 4.1 1.73 OkC .529 17.2 4.9 3.0 .97
1.15 S Dinwiddie Brk .530 15.4 4.3 8.8 1.50 .566 10.6 4.2 4.7 .56
1.08 Jarrett Jack NYK .464 7.8 5.0 8.6 .71 NOP .750 7.1 .0 4.9 -.21
1.01 B Ingram LAL .508 16.3 5.7 3.0 .86 .467 10.0 5.0 2.4 .26
.98 Jaylen Brown Bos .544 17.7 7.0 1.7 1.08 .531 12.2 5.9 1.8 .45
.97 Aaron Gordon Orl .605 18.9 8.8 2.3 1.47 .523 15.0 6.5 2.2 .89
.94 Kelly Oubre Was .547 14.9 6.9 1.5 .88 .510 9.5 5.8 1.0 .22
.86 L Aldridge SAS .566 26.1 9.2 2.5 2.08 .525 20.0 8.6 2.4 1.56
.82 K Porzingis NYK .563 28.6 8.2 1.2 1.94 .538 19.2 8.0 1.5 1.31
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.82 Clint Capela Hou .652 19.9 17.2 2.3 2.39 .628 18.9 12.7 1.8 1.71
.75 K Anderson SAS .559 12.6 8.4 4.3 1.22 .518 8.5 7.3 3.3 .64
.70 Kris Dunn Chi .489 14.6 6.1 5.2 .88 Min .428 6.4 4.6 4.7 .23
.69 D Valentine Chi .501 11.0 6.5 3.2 .69 .490 9.4 5.2 2.1 .20
.69 Jeff Green Cle .589 16.8 5.6 2.7 1.04 Orl .497 12.9 4.8 1.6 .41
.68 Courtney Lee NYK .608 15.2 4.3 3.2 .90 .554 11.9 3.9 2.5 .48
.65 Devin Booker Phx .564 24.4 4.7 4.1 1.40 .523 21.5 3.3 3.4 1.03
.65 Jerami Grant OkC .576 13.9 6.2 1.5 .81 .544 9.3 4.7 1.0 .20
.63 Jakob Poeltl Tor .667 16.3 10.1 .9 1.29 .575 9.6 9.3 .7 .41
.61 J Clarkson LAL .557 22.2 4.2 4.0 1.23 .522 16.1 3.6 2.9 .68
Jaylen Brown has cooled some, and Oladipo is on a tear.
East with 11 of the 13 biggest improvers.
This top 20 are now ranked by an xyz of 5 metrics, averaged and normalized to the same scale as above. Showing those within half of the front-runner:
Code: Select all
xyz improved min PER WS/48 BPM RPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM RPM e484
1.42 V Oladipo 802 22.4 .138 3.7 4.0 1.73 13.6 .086 -1.4 1.7 .97
1.32 J Brown 754 14.0 .122 0.1 1.1 1.08 10.3 .053 -4.0 -3.1 .45
1.23 D Sabonis 575 18.4 .146 0.3 -1.0 1.42 6.9 .022 -4.9 -2.0 .31
1.14 A Gordon 813 20.4 .162 3.3 1.5 1.47 14.5 .076 -0.7 0.5 .89
1.13 Jeff Green 531 17.8 .149 -0.3 .6 1.04 10.6 .022 -4.6 3.4 .41
1.08 S Dinwiddie 598 18.0 .163 2.1 3.6 1.50 12.7 .101 -0.9 -0.5 .56
1.00 B Ingram 812 12.8 .060 -2.3 -2.5 .86 8.6 -.007 -4.0 -4.7 .26
.96 D Booker 851 19.4 .097 0.7 .1 1.40 14.6 .035 -2.3 -1.3 1.03
.91 L Aldridge 799 25.1 .230 3.4 1.7 2.08 18.7 .149 1.1 1.3 1.56
.89 Courtney Lee 779 15.6 .140 3.2 .7 .90 12.2 .081 -0.0 -0.9 .48
.82 Clint Capela 583 25.8 .271 4.8 1.5 2.39 21.5 .185 1.0 0.0 1.71
.79 J Clarkson 539 18.4 .107 -0.7 -1.0 1.23 13.2 .024 -2.7 -4.0 .68
.73 Kelly Oubre 690 13.8 .113 0.1 0.7 .88 9.1 .062 -2.3 -1.5 .22
.73 Jerami Grant 513 15.1 .155 0.5 -1.3 .81 10.1 .092 -2.1 -4.1 .20
In per-minute improvement, it's Sabonis and Green.
I could not find Brown or Clarkson in the RPM list, so they're zero here.
If I give them RPM=1.0, Brown displaces Sabonis at #2. Clarkson moves up to tie Booker.
table edited
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:14 am
by Crow
J Brown is plus 1.12 on page 1 of SGs. Clarkson -1.04 on page 2 of PGs.
There have been other reports of missing players, brought to JE's attention.
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:28 pm
by Mike G
Thanks, man.
B-r.com tells me Clarkson is SG, and Brown is SF.
This year, Brown has played SG 38% of the time, the rest at F. Last year, zero at G.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nja02.html
Clarkson has been PG for 53% of this year's minutes, up from 8%.
I really hate having to find one player out of 445.
Players who did not start the season on a roster generally don't seem to ever appear at espn RPM listing.
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:06 am
by shadow
Here are the top 20 most improved players in vanilla RAPM. The improvement is in terms of how much higher their RAPM z-score is this year compared to last year.
Code: Select all
Player Improvement
Kyle Korver 3.71
Dwight Powell 3.55
Marquese Chriss 3.13
D.J. Augustin 2.78
Andre Drummond 2.45
Chandler Parsons 2.43
Reggie Jackson 2.39
Langston Galloway 2.29
Julius Randle 2.26
Joe Harris 2.26
Nicolas Brussino 2.2
Jaylen Brown 2.2
Al Horford 2.19
Jahlil Okafor 2.15
Dwyane Wade 2.08
Jordan Clarkson 2.08
Yogi Ferrell 1.99
Trevor Ariza 1.98
Devin Harris 1.98
Lance Thomas 1.98
Here's the top 20 in terms of biggest drops:
Code: Select all
Player Decline
Rudy Gobert -3.43
George Hill -3.38
Jae Crowder -3.31
LeBron James -3.18
Patrick Patterson -2.84
Denzel Valentine -2.8
Cristiano Felicio -2.77
Kevin Love -2.76
Maurice Harkless -2.74
Dragan Bender -2.64
Jerian Grant -2.52
Gorgui Dieng -2.43
Harrison Barnes -2.43
Nerlens Noel -2.29
Paul Zipser -2.25
JaVale McGee -2.18
Shabazz Muhammad -2.13
JaMychal Green -2.1
Joe Ingles -2.08
DeAndre Jordan -2.08
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:50 pm
by Crow
So slightly more than 40 z scores changed by more than 2 year to year. Or more than 90% changed by less than 2, at this early stage. What about in terms of raw point estimates?
Chriss still negative?
Re: Improved Players 2017-18
Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:53 pm
by Rd11490
I took a look at these improvement numbers to see who's might be driven by either the team is shooting poorly or well while the player is on the court and/or the opponent is shooting poorly or well while the player is on the court. I don't have this data for free throws yet, but I plan to generate it sometime this week.
ePPS is the expected points per shot based on the shooters career average at the shot location
PPS is the actual points per shot taken
Anyone not on my list has seen less than 100 offensive/defensive shots so far this season.
Top 20
https://imgur.com/q4i8vfQ.png
Bottom 20
https://i.imgur.com/tS024Mp.png
Offense Defense
Diff Diff
Max 0.172 0.218
Min -0.262 -0.152
Mean -0.034 0.029
STDev 0.057 0.049
Some thoughts:
Shabazz has been extremely unlucky on defense as have Noel, Dieng, Patterson, Felicio and Crowder
Patterson has been unlucky on offense as well
JaMychal Green has been lucky on O
Reggie Jackson has been pretty unlucky on D
Al Horford and Devin Harris have been lucky on O
