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Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:35 am
by Mike G
At this early stage, not quite 10% of the season, rookies project to supply 85 wins on the year.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
11.4 Ben Simmons Phl 35 .534 18.1 9.9 8.0 1.6 3.4 .4 1.94
6.9 Jayson Tatum Bos 32 .621 18.0 7.6 2.3 .9 2.1 1.1 1.26
6.7 Lauri Markkanen Chi 33 .589 18.7 9.8 .5 .6 1.9 .6 1.22
5.0 Lonzo Ball LAL 34 .399 9.7 7.5 6.9 1.2 3.3 .6 .88
4.8 Kyle Kuzma LAL 27 .609 18.6 6.2 2.0 .7 1.7 .0 1.07
4.7 John Collins Atl 19 .540 17.6 12.2 1.0 .7 1.5 1.5 1.44
4.4 Mike James Phx 24 .532 17.8 3.8 5.6 1.3 3.0 .4 1.09
4.4 De'Aaron Fox Sac 27 .446 15.2 5.3 5.3 1.0 2.4 .0 .95
3.0 D Mitchell Uta 24 .445 17.5 3.1 3.9 1.5 3.4 .8 .74
2.4 Daniel Theis Bos 15 .651 15.8 11.8 1.2 .3 3.0 2.0 1.11
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.2 Dennis Smith Dal 28 .450 14.2 3.8 6.4 1.1 4.7 .2 .60
2.1 Jonathan Isaac Orl 18 .609 9.9 8.8 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 .77
2.0 Jordan Bell GSW 9 .865 20.5 8.4 3.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.84
2.0 Bgd Bogdanovic Sac 24 .526 14.7 3.5 2.4 2.1 1.5 .6 .78
1.8 OG Anunoby Tor 18 .471 10.5 4.5 3.0 1.7 .3 .0 .62
1.7 Bam Adebayo Mia 19 .500 9.8 11.0 .0 1.2 .8 .7 .74
1.7 Josh Jackson Phx 23 .451 12.5 5.0 1.1 2.1 1.7 .0 .42
1.6 Malik Monk Cha 22 .460 14.9 2.9 2.7 .8 2.3 .4 .44
1.4 Brandon Paul SAS 14 .837 15.3 3.3 1.3 1.7 2.0 .7 .60
1.4 Dillon Brooks Mem 29 .518 11.3 4.7 1.7 1.5 2.4 .4 .28
1.4 S Thornwell LAC 10 .558 14.3 3.1 2.6 1.4 .5 .9 .79
It looks like 45 eWins for East rookies and 40 in the West.
Last season, the rookie crop was projecting to 40 eWins or so, until sometime in March; finishing with 56, thanks to more minutes.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:12 am
by eminence
Been loving our rook Mitchell so far. Shot off the first few games, but supremely confident and seems to have a ton of talent.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:04 pm
by Mike G
With the season at 13.3%, rookies have slumped a bit to 80 projected eWins for the year.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.9 Ben Simmons Phl 35 .504 16.6 10.1 8.3 1.8 3.8 .8 1.83
6.8 Jayson Tatum Bos 30 .633 18.8 7.3 2.6 .9 2.1 1.0 1.35
6.1 Lauri Markkanen Chi 33 .580 17.8 8.9 1.3 .4 1.8 .5 1.11
5.2 Kyle Kuzma LAL 30 .619 18.3 7.3 1.5 .5 1.8 .1 1.03
4.7 Mike James Phx 24 .503 16.4 4.1 5.6 1.5 2.2 .4 1.15
4.5 John Collins Atl 20 .535 15.9 12.5 1.0 .8 2.1 1.8 1.32
4.4 Lonzo Ball LAL 33 .350 8.1 6.7 6.9 1.2 2.6 .9 .78
4.0 De'Aaron Fox Sac 27 .459 15.7 4.7 5.9 .8 3.0 .1 .88
3.3 Dono. Mitchell Uta 25 .441 17.2 3.4 3.2 1.5 3.1 1.0 .76
3.2 Dennis Smith Dal 28 .460 16.8 4.7 6.0 1.0 4.6 .1 .79
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.2 Bog. Bogdanovic Sac 24 .559 15.5 3.7 2.0 1.5 1.7 .8 .77
2.2 OG Anunoby Tor 17 .486 10.3 5.1 3.2 1.8 .6 .2 .78
1.9 Malik Monk Cha 22 .462 14.4 2.8 3.7 .7 2.1 .2 .51
1.7 Daniel Theis Bos 14 .628 13.4 9.8 1.3 .7 3.2 1.8 .80
1.7 Dillon Brooks Mem 30 .500 10.4 5.3 1.7 1.5 2.3 .6 .33
1.6 Jordan Bell GSW 9 .706 12.5 8.4 3.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.28
1.6 Jonathan Isaac Orl 20 .531 9.4 7.4 1.6 1.0 1.9 1.6 .52
1.5 Josh Jackson Phx 22 .461 12.8 4.7 1.2 2.0 2.5 .1 .40
1.4 Frank Ntilikina NYK 20 .396 6.8 3.4 8.2 2.7 3.8 .2 .52
1.4 Bam Adebayo Mia 14 .526 9.0 11.1 .0 1.3 1.0 1.2 .81
1.3 Dwayne Bacon Cha 24 .443 8.1 6.8 1.9 .8 1.2 .2 .33
Shooting slumps for Simmons and Ball.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:41 pm
by Mike G
Rookies still heading for 80 total eWins, through .233 of the season.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.8 Ben Simmons Phl 35 .521 17.7 9.1 8.4 2.2 3.6 .8 1.92
6.5 Jayson Tatum Bos 30 .617 18.8 6.7 1.8 1.2 1.8 1.0 1.26
5.7 Lauri Markkanen Chi 30 .528 16.0 9.7 1.4 .7 1.9 .6 1.10
5.4 Lonzo Ball LAL 33 .372 8.3 7.7 7.5 1.6 2.9 1.0 .96
5.3 Kyle Kuzma LAL 32 .578 18.7 6.7 1.6 .5 2.2 .1 .98
5.3 D Mitchell Uta 28 .477 18.5 4.3 4.2 1.7 2.9 .8 1.11
4.8 John Collins Atl 23 .603 16.6 10.9 1.2 .9 2.4 1.3 1.24
4.0 Dennis Smith Dal 29 .453 17.3 5.3 5.4 1.2 4.3 .4 .92
3.7 Mike James Phx 23 .463 14.7 4.4 5.5 1.4 2.5 .4 .95
2.9 De'Aaron Fox Sac 27 .450 13.4 4.2 5.1 1.2 2.9 .1 .65
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.2 OG Anunoby Tor 19 .612 13.1 4.0 2.1 1.6 .6 .1 .71
1.8 Bgd Bogdanovic Sac 24 .517 13.9 3.4 2.4 1.5 2.1 .6 .55
1.7 Dillon Brooks Mem 30 .534 10.8 4.8 1.6 1.3 1.8 .7 .33
1.5 Jordan Bell GSW 10 .703 10.9 9.1 4.5 1.8 2.0 2.9 1.35
1.5 Josh Jackson Phx 22 .445 12.8 5.5 1.6 2.1 3.2 .4 .41
1.4 Daniel Theis Bos 13 .574 11.1 10.9 1.3 1.0 3.4 1.8 .70
Simmons is on pace to rack up 8.65 Win Shares and 5.01 VORP. Here is the complete list of rookies to make at least 90% of both:
Code: Select all
rookie yr VORP WS
Magic 1980 5.3 10.5
Bird 1980 5.4 11.5
Jordan 1985 8.1 14.0
Robinson 1990 6.4 15.1
Duncan 1998 6.0 12.8
Paul 2006 5.7 10.4
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:32 am
by Crow
Lots of meh to bad performances to date by the rookies. Not surprising by history but seems sonewhat out of sync with the high praise this class' top 7-14 got.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:31 pm
by Mike G
Relative to last 10 seasons' rookie classes, they look pretty good. I've expanded their current Win Shares to 82 games, and listing rookies since 2008-09 to get 5+ WS:
Code: Select all
yr WS rookies
09 6.4 M Gasol
09 6.1 Fernandez
09 5.8 B Lopez
09 5.3 Love
09 5.2 Chalmers
09 5.1 Augustin
10 5.4 Tyreke
11 9.8 Griffin
11 6.6 Monroe
11 5.3 Fields
12 5.5 Leonard
13 6.1 A Davis
13 5.8 Lillard
14
15 5.7 Mirotic
16 8.3 Towns
16 6.7 Jokic
17
18 10. Tatum
18 8.2 Simmons
18 6.2 Kuzma
18 5.7 Collins
18 4.7 Anunoby
I've included Anunoby , since rookies generally get more minutes (and improve) later in the year.
Seems like a great rookie class, relative to others in recent memory. Two of the top 3 in 10 years?
Same deal with VORP -- those above 1.5 --
Code: Select all
yr VORP rookies
09 2.5 Fernandez
09 2.1 M Gasol
09 1.8 Chalmers
09 1.7 Batum
10 2.5 Tyreke
10 2.2 Curry
10 1.9 Jennings
11 4.0 Griffin
11 2.5 Monroe
11 1.7 Fields
12 2.4 Leonard
12 2.1 Irving
12 1.7 Parsons
13 2.0 A Davis
13 1.9 Lillard
14
15 1.6 Noel
16 3.1 Towns
16 3.0 Jokic
17
18 5.5 Simmons
18 4.0 Tatum
18 2.0 Anunoby
18 1.5 Collins
On both lists, just 3 in the last 4 years; at least that many this year alone.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:00 pm
by Crow
Of top 10 draft picks from this class, I see one doing great, 2 ok at best, 7 lousy.
Of the whole first round, I see about ten above league average in whatever minutes (may be modest to small) and the rest weak to terrible. Overall this seems more typical class than outstanding. The later part of the draft may be comparatively better than the front part. Some guys given big minutes have per game numbers might sound decent to good but when you look at efficiency and overall metrics, it generally isn't even ok, imo.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:33 pm
by Mike G
OK, maybe 10 years of rookie histories are insufficient, and they've all been lousy.
Going to 15 seasons, incl. this one, we can see how this bunch would rank if they keep their per-minute rates to the end of the season. An average year would have one player ranked in the top 15, 2 in the top 30, etc.
The top 100 rookie minutes in the previous 14 seasons get us down to 1831. So I'm including this year's rookies projecting to >1500, since minutes tend to rise during the season.
http://bkref.com/tiny/FMCta
These aren't all the best WinShares of the last 15 years, but among those with 1831+ minutes:
Code: Select all
WS/48 rookie rk
.189 Tatum 1
.153 Anunoby 5
.147 Collins 8
.138 Simmons 11
.115 Kuzma 20
.066 Isaac 58
.064 Markkanen 60
.037 Brooks 80
.035 James 81
.025 Mitchell 91
.023 Bogdanovic 94
An avg year would have 6 or 7 among the top 100; so not only does this year stand to dominate the top 15, they represent well all the way down.
Chris Paul's .178 is the best rookie WS/48 in the previous 14 yrs. He also holds the best BPM in the era, 6.1
Code: Select all
BPM rookie rk
4.7 Simmons 2
3.0 Tatum 5
2.8 Anunoby 7
0.4 Collins 27
-.6 Isaac 53
-.8 Ball 58
-1.2 Kuzma 64
-1.4 Brooks 66
-1.4 Mitchell 67
-1.6 Markkanen 71
-2.2 Bogdanovic 86
-2.3 James 90
-2.8 Smith 99
It's apparently fairly uncommon for a rookie to get big minutes at above-avg BPM rates. This year has twice the normal number in this "acceptable" range.
The top 4 PER in the era belong to Towns, Paul, Griffin, and Davis.
Code: Select all
PER rookie rk
20.3 Simmons 5
19.9 Collins 6
16.6 Tatum 20
15.5 Kuzma 31
14.9 Markkanen 42
14.4 James 48
13.8 Anunoby 57
13.1 Mitchell 67
12.4 Bogdanovic 76
12.3 Isaac 79
11.5 Smith 88
11.2 Fox 90
Lonzo Ball at 10.0 would rank #90, but for the 12 above who squeeze him out of the top 100.
So every metric I can find indicates this rookie class has about twice the avg class' talent, at pretty much every level but the top, where there is even more.
You may still make the case that it was a bad year for
drafting, which is just a poor correlation between excellence and pick number. But the rookies came from somewhere and seem to be fine.
If you take away Simmons and Tatum, you still have a fairly good crop?
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:41 pm
by Crow
Thanks for the extra comparative work. I might back off some with the did of this research. I am probably too hard of them but yeah most drafts seem disappointing to me at least compared to the hype. 2-4 strong rookies is notable but so is the shortfall from Ball, Smith and Mitchell, Fox, Ntilikina, Kennard, Monk, the Jacksons, etc. It is the number who were outright terrible (by RPM, BPM, WS/48), not just "weak". I probably should wait til yr3 but the overhype provokes me.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:51 pm
by eminence
Yeah, I think the rookie crop this year has looked spectacular. Among guys getting starter level minutes Simmons/Tatum have looked absolutely stellar, ROY contenders in almost any year (Simmons maybe really in any). Then a whole crop who've looked solid Markannen, Kuzma, Mitchell, Brooks. Fox/Smith/Ball fairly normal level of rookie struggles for a lead guard it seems to me. In the lower minutes regions some bigtime standouts as well in OG/Collins. And plenty of others that look like they should stick. And that's all with the #1 pick out injured.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:58 pm
by Crow
D Mitchell: Way below average ts%, A/TO of just 1.5. Weak from mid-range and takes too many from there. Loses his PG match-up badly. SG matchup is about even. Awful shooting in the clutch.
RPM is only mildly negative and raw on/off is moderately positive. They are going to continue to invest time in him. As they should, all things considered.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:01 pm
by Mike G
At 30% of the season, rookies project to 82 total eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.9 Ben Simmons Phl 36 .509 16.1 9.3 7.8 2.3 3.8 .8 1.70
6.7 D Mitchell Uta 29 .527 22.0 4.0 4.4 1.7 3.0 .6 1.35
6.5 Jayson Tatum Bos 31 .635 18.6 6.8 1.9 1.2 1.6 .9 1.26
5.1 L Markkanen Chi 31 .509 15.2 9.4 1.4 .7 1.7 .6 .99
4.8 Kyle Kuzma LAL 30 .575 18.5 7.2 1.7 .5 2.3 .2 .97
4.8 Lonzo Ball LAL 33 .380 8.0 7.4 7.2 1.6 2.9 1.1 .85
4.5 John Collins Atl 23 .613 17.0 11.1 1.2 1.0 2.3 1.4 1.31
4.1 Dennis Smith Dal 28 .461 17.7 5.3 5.3 1.1 4.0 .4 .94
3.6 Mike James Phx 21 .460 14.7 4.7 6.0 1.4 2.7 .4 .99
2.5 De'Aaron Fox Sac 26 .450 12.8 4.6 4.8 1.2 3.1 .3 .57
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.1 OG Anunoby Tor 19 .621 13.1 4.0 1.9 1.7 .9 .1 .65
2.0 Jordan Bell GSW 11 .718 12.5 10.0 3.9 1.8 2.2 3.3 1.47
2.0 Bg Bogdanovic Sac 24 .528 14.2 3.6 2.8 1.7 2.5 .4 .56
2.0 Daniel Theis Bos 13 .606 13.2 11.9 1.4 1.3 3.5 2.0 1.00
1.6 Frank Mason Sac 18 .535 15.9 3.5 5.1 .8 3.0 .0 .75
1.5 Bam Adebayo Mia 15 .627 12.7 9.3 .3 1.9 1.8 1.5 .93
1.3 Jarrett Allen Brk 16 .582 10.0 7.5 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.0 .71
1.3 Josh Jackson Phx 22 .442 12.6 5.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 .3 .35
1.3 Maxi Kleber Dal 16 .592 11.4 7.3 1.0 .6 1.0 1.0 .62
1.1 Malik Monk Cha 17 .452 13.1 2.9 3.8 .5 1.8 .3 .44
Donovan Mitchell has really tightened his offensive game since previous report:
Code: Select all
Gms mpg TS% TO% Usg% ORt DRt GmSc
1-19 28.1 .468 13.2 28.2 91 106 7.9
20-26 32.9 .667 11.6 31.5 120 109 18.5
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:19 am
by Crow
Rank relative to draft position, 5 of the top 10 performers here exceed drat pick rank.
Zac Collins hasn't done much. Ntilikina would rate an underperformer relative to pick #. BPM really rates both of the Jacksons very poor.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:49 pm
by Mike G
Agree, they haven't done much. These # are a couple days old --
Code: Select all
per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
Josh Jackson Phx 22 .442 12.6 5.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 .3 .35
F Ntilikina NYK 19 .405 8.1 3.5 5.4 2.4 3.5 .2 .23
Ju. Jackson Sac 18 .482 11.3 3.4 .7 .3 1.5 .2 .02
Zach Collins Por 5 .167 1.9 5.7 1.9 .0 5.7 .0 -1.22
It's not good when TO are one of your biggest quantities.
A zero in that last column is pretty much just that, not a player who would stick around. ZC is off the chart at this point.
Oh yeah, he has fouled about 10 times per36.
Re: Rookies of 2017-18
Posted: Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:40 pm
by Mike G
With the season 39% done, rookies project to total 85.6 eWins
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.2 Ben Simmons Phl 37 .519 15.6 8.8 8.0 2.0 4.1 .8 1.54
6.3 Jayson Tatum Bos 31 .633 18.4 6.9 1.8 1.1 1.5 .9 1.22
6.0 D Mitchell Uta 30 .527 21.7 3.8 4.3 1.8 3.0 .5 1.26
5.8 Kyle Kuzma LAL 32 .601 19.7 7.6 1.7 .4 2.2 .3 1.13
5.1 Lonzo Ball LAL 34 .423 9.3 7.2 7.1 1.5 3.1 1.1 .89
5.0 L Markkanen Chi 30 .521 16.4 9.3 1.5 .7 1.6 .6 1.09
4.4 John Collins Atl 23 .634 17.3 11.5 1.4 1.1 2.3 1.5 1.39
3.6 Mike James Phx 21 .469 15.8 4.6 6.1 1.5 2.7 .4 1.07
3.5 Dennis Smith Dal 28 .465 17.6 5.4 5.5 1.0 3.9 .4 .99
2.9 Jordan Bell GSW 13 .725 14.2 9.2 4.9 1.8 2.5 3.0 1.55
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.4 Bam Adebayo Mia 19 .634 13.8 9.2 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.03
2.3 Bg Bogdanovic Sac 25 .546 14.4 3.6 2.9 1.5 2.4 .4 .59
2.0 De'Aaron Fox Sac 25 .446 12.6 4.2 4.6 1.3 3.3 .3 .51
1.9 OG Anunoby Tor 21 .631 13.1 3.8 1.6 1.6 1.1 .1 .54
1.9 Daniel Theis Bos 13 .557 12.1 10.9 1.6 1.2 2.9 1.9 .92
1.7 Frank Mason Sac 19 .486 14.2 4.1 4.7 .9 2.7 .3 .70
1.7 Maxi Kleber Dal 19 .599 11.4 6.9 1.1 .5 .7 1.1 .64
1.4 Josh Jackson Phx 23 .433 12.5 5.7 1.6 1.6 2.9 .5 .37
1.4 T Cavanaugh Atl 14 .624 13.0 8.2 2.6 .9 1.0 .2 .95
1.3 Jarrett Allen Brk 17 .569 10.2 7.7 .9 1.2 1.3 2.0 .65
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.2 F Ntilikina NYK 20 .453 9.4 3.8 5.4 2.3 3.3 .2 .38
1.1 Dillon Brooks Mem 28 .545 10.5 4.4 1.5 1.1 1.7 .5 .23
0.9 Luke Kennard Det 17 .498 11.8 3.6 2.7 1.3 1.8 .4 .40
0.9 Malik Monk Cha 15 .456 12.9 2.6 3.6 .7 1.8 .2 .42
0.9 M Teodosic LAC 23 .446 12.4 6.1 7.5 .7 2.8 .5 .99
West now has the lead in projected eWins, 44 to 41