Team shot distribution

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Crow
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Team shot distribution

Post by Crow » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:12 pm

Which of the playoff teams look strong for / compliant with Moreyball ideals?

Rockets. Cavs. Thunder look pretty good.

Raptors? Meh. Warriors worse than meh, shockingly bad. May be the analytic failure of year or decade. Screwed it up. Why?

Sixers, Celtics, pretty meh overall. Spurs, worse than meh.

Bucks pretty good, especially with so many not good. Pacers, bad. Blazers, meh. Jazz, a bit better than meh.

Teams don't have to adhere to Moreyball ideal and the optimal shot distribution once the roster and roles are set might vary from it. But I think it is still the obvious, "right" simple initial standard. Vary from this ideal, prove that it works. If it works, still have questions whether it works better than something closer to the ideal would have worked. Can't know for sure. But the argument seems more likely to be with the ideal than not, imo.

Crow
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Re: Team shot distribution

Post by Crow » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:28 pm

This is perhaps the least Moreyball compliant the Warriors have been in 5 years by ranks. It is certainly close to the worst and the most meh looking and for first time lacking in any strength (15th on 3pta frequency). They have always been biased toward the 3, weak on ftr and either mildly above or below average on within 3 feet shot frequency... in regular season. BUT in playoffs they always got more Moreyball compliant, way more. So while this is their least compliant, most shockingly meh regular season team shot distribution, history says they know better, will change. They better. Other teams should to. Some won't.

It is still ultimately about making shots, not just taking "good ones". The Warriors have won based in large degree on shot-making talent (especially from 3pt land) but there may be a limit on how sloppy you can let your shot selection get and still prevail.

Mike G
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Re: Team shot distribution

Post by Mike G » Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:46 pm

Dubs shot .569 eFG% this year, breaking the record they set last year, and the year before. No other team is closer than .015 (Mia'14)
Team TS% was .603, and I suspect that is also an all-time best efficiency with shot selection and making. It's .013 better than #2 Houston; .006 better than last year.

Their 3fga/fga ratio has dropped from .362 to .339 in the interval, as their eFG% and TS% have risen.
It may be that they've achieved the 3FG ceiling and now use it properly to enhance their 2FG strength: You can throw everything into limiting their 3FGA, and that makes them better.

eminence
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Re: Team shot distribution

Post by eminence » Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:54 pm

Think I'm with Mike for the Warriors (not that they have a perfect balance), their 'problems' seem to be with turnovers/rebounding, not shot selection. And Curry being out injured of course.

Crow
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Re: Team shot distribution

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:15 am

I might have over-reacted initially in Warriors case, but this is what I saw: 20th ranked on shots within 3 feet, 21st on FTA rate and 15th on 3 point rate. The first and third of these components of Moreyball are their worst ones (or ties) in 5 years, the last one by a lot. Most teams aren't going to overcone this and win a title or even go far. I noted that the Warriors have been an exception and a different team in playoffs. Without that playoff change, they might have achieved less there. If it weren't a potential issue, why did they change every playoffs during the period? If you made that change, why make the needed change to be consistent with past playoffs way bigger? Maybe they are ahead in the new paradigm. Or maybe others caught up some while the Warriors got a bit sloppy. An issue to evaluate in this playoffs and the next few. Got to raise a question before it can be firmly decided.

I said this earlier: as good as they are, could they be better with a "better" shot distribution? I think probably. Are others saying: no, they couldn't do better, couldn't top these results achieved with this different shot distribution and not with a set more compliant to Moreyball ideals or their own past?

If you were going to pick a shot distribution for this playoffs or next season, would it be this one or one more like what they did in past playoffs? Maybe this is ok for regular season to reduce injuries from inside takes and heighten change / surprise. But ideal?

Were the Warriors "lucky" or "unlucky" this season from mid range and elsewhere by the way that is currently calculated and discussed?

Crow
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Re: Team shot distribution

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:02 am

If Rockets are biggest obstacle the warriors will face in trying to get a title, what is easier, harder against Rockers defense?

Easier? Getting shots within 3 feet. Warriors weak at / not emphasizing this now? Harder? Making 3s. Warriors pretty dependent on that. Also harder against Rockets? Making 10-16 footers. 5th stingiest in league on this. Getting ftas also harder. Is Warriors' lack of emphasis there, just as well or a weakness? Which shot distribution sounds better against this defense? I don't think the current one is ideal. But the results in a specific matchup may not mirror average results.

What actually happened in the regular season matchups? Warriors shot well from 3. Didn't get to line in any elevated way. At the rim and midrangers? I'll need a different resource like NBA.com. Maybe somebody else can check or I will at another time when not on phone.

josecarlos
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Re: Team shot distribution

Post by josecarlos » Tue May 29, 2018 5:51 am

Tonight, Houston Rocket has throwed just only two shots from middle range, 2.22%. The number of shoots from inside the zone or three pointers are the same 44, 44.88%.

Mike G
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Re: Team shot distribution

Post by Mike G » Tue May 29, 2018 12:01 pm

In the WCF, Rockets hit just .314 from the arc, effectively .471
From inside the arc, they made .518, and at the FT line .742 -- combined about .565
Shift a few FT to fouls outside the arc, and it's still .070 to .080 differential.

Crow
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Re: Team shot distribution

Post by Crow » Tue May 29, 2018 2:16 pm

Shot distribution is important but hitting them is what counts, of course.

3 point shots are high volume component of Moreyball but are typically the least efficient leg of Moreyball. Main value is replacing usually worse midrange 2s.

Should the Rockets have reduced or stop taking 3s last tonight? Usually you'd say no but that was so terrible. I would have at least reduced after some point.

Crow
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Re: Team shot distribution

Post by Crow » Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:49 pm

What the current best are doing in playoffs: https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 2448727040
And what the rest are doing, differently, for some unknown reason.

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