2018 Draft Models and Discussion

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Nathan
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Nathan » Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:46 pm

Crow wrote:Wendell's defensive projection would be enough to warrant interest or strong interest even if he isn't that much in NBA on offense or an't be relied on to deliver that in today's game.

Don't know about Jevon Carter yet.

Trae Young with high uncertainty? Makes sense to me.

Mikal Bridges... I was higher on, maybe too high? Might watch more video later.

G Clark, K Williams I like and they are both up there.

Ayton, Bagley, Bamba... lower than commonly seen and I agree, fwiw.
Wendell's defensive projection is off the charts in part because he's one of the rare big men who gets a lot of assists at a young age, and college assist rate happens to be strongly correlated with NBA defensive impact. You're probably aware of that phenomenon (best passers at every position are often among the best defenders). What're your thoughts on that?

Crow
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Crow » Fri Apr 27, 2018 6:10 pm

Not too much. Just that if you understand where and how to pass on offense, you should apply that knowledge to defense too. Anticipate the passes, get in best position to defend or pick off. Maybe someone might want to go further on topic.

Crow
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Crow » Wed May 16, 2018 12:10 am

Tend to agree with your model: Miles Bridges that low, along with Diallo, Knox, R Williams.

I don't know enough about Jontay but I doubt he is the very best pick.

bchaikin
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by bchaikin » Wed May 16, 2018 5:59 am

Wendell's defensive projection is off the charts

off the charts? as in better defensively than jaren jackson, mohamed bamba, sagaba konate, robert williams, or reggie lynch?...

duke ranked just 4th best in the ACC in defensive efficiency, and nowhere near as good as virginia who was best in the conference defensively. if wendell carter's defense was off the charts would that have to mean the defense of his backups 6-10 javin delaurier and 6-11 marques bolden (who played a combined 22 min/g) was absolutely awful?...

in part because he's one of the rare big men who gets a lot of assists at a young age, and college assist rate happens to be strongly correlated with NBA defensive impact

does correlation here really imply causation?...

Mike G
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Mike G » Wed May 16, 2018 12:52 pm

bchaikin wrote:...
in part because he's one of the rare big men who gets a lot of assists at a young age, and college assist rate happens to be strongly correlated with NBA defensive impact

does correlation here really imply causation?...
It seems awkward to say any tendency in college causes anything in the pros; and maybe correlation is as good as it gets?
A big man who passes well is likely a student of the game, aware of players cutting to open spots, at both ends of the floor.
With so little in boxscores to indicate defensive impact, any such clue can have a lot of value.

Dr Positivity
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Dr Positivity » Fri May 18, 2018 12:43 am

Preliminary top 20 (not a purely stats model)

1. PG Luka Doncic
2. SF Josh Okogie
3. PG Trae Young
4. SF Miles Bridges
5. SF Mikal Bridges
6. PF Jontay Porter
7. C Robert Williams
8. C Wendell Carter
9. PG Elie Okobo
10. SF Dzanen Musa
11. C Goga Bitadze
12. C Jaren Jackson
13. C Mohamed Bamba
14. C Deandre Ayton
15. PF Marvin Bagley
16. PF Bonzi Colson
17. PG Trevon Duval
18. SF Zhaire Smith
19. PG De’Anthony Melton
20. PG JeVon Carter

Crow
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Crow » Sat May 19, 2018 3:49 pm

I have been hearing good things about Okogie. This is the highest by far mark.

You have the centers shifted to mid-lottery. Was that based on assessment of their place in today's game or just individually they all went there?

That is the by far highest for Musa too. Not that concerned about his D? Will he less a defensive issue at SF or SG?

Dr Positivity
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Dr Positivity » Sun May 20, 2018 5:01 pm

Crow wrote:I have been hearing good things about Okogie. This is the highest by far mark.

You have the centers shifted to mid-lottery. Was that based on assessment of their place in today's game or just individually they all went there?

That is the by far highest for Musa too. Not that concerned about his D? Will he less a defensive issue at SF or SG?
My system is based on comparing it to recent all-stars, one issue for centers is Embiid, Towns, Cousins, Davis if you call him one, all had among the best statistical resumes anyone has had recently. Some other centers like Noah and Horford were also very good although older. So the bar is very high and some prospects with physical tools but holes like Ayton and Bamba fall a little short. Looking at it right now it appears I was too hard on Jaren Jackson in that ranking, he is only elite at one thing (blocks) but he is not bad at anything else, and he has 15 BPM. His splits are relatively similar to Towns where blocks was also his highest stat, and both players raw minutes per game were lowered.

I am very bullish on numbers for European prospects, and prospects who are the best players on their team. Musa is the guy on his on his Adriatic team (puts up 21/5/4/3/.61 TS% per 40, leads them in scoring and PER) and is super young, he just turned 19 earlier this month. At the same age Jokic was about as good as him in Adriatic. Bitadze is also around that level statistically and is still 18 right now, although he plays 23 minutes.

Okogie seems high and I might drop him if I include any sort of conventional scouts rating. Basically I got there because SF had the most consistent type of player who's had success from NCAA, long armed wings with defensive stats and passing. You've got Kawhi, George, Butler, Deng, Iguodala, and then some wings on the scoring side with Durant, Hayward, Melo. Ball handling, Okogie's main weakness is not essential based on this track record. Tatum if he goes on to be an all-star fits in relatively well with the group. This plays well on Okogie and the 2 Bridges. It's not like Okogie is a total role player as scorer either as he is over 20 pt/40 both seasons. I guess it might matter that Okogie is relatively short in shoes but has 7 foot wingspan, most of those guys are tall in shoes as well. I have him listed as a SF but if a SG only he would rank a little lower. Miles Bridges has the same problem where if he plays PF it deflates the comparison to all those two way wings

Crow
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Crow » Sun May 20, 2018 7:47 pm

Bitadze knows how to play / where to move; but watching some highlights, I quickly tired of slow motion moves against weak defense. He might be a decent pick for a deep bench big. I didn't spend enough time to speculate on anything beyond that. His rebounding improved this yr vs. previous as did steal rate but beyond that not much else did.

shock3
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by shock3 » Thu May 24, 2018 7:02 pm

Rumor is Jontay Porter will return to Missouri for his sophomore year. What type of sophomore year will he need to maintain/improve his draft position? It seems like he ranks high in many models through his standing as the youngest player in the draft.

Crow
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Crow » Fri May 25, 2018 1:12 am

The highest body fat% at the combine may have been a factor.

Nathan
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Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Nathan » Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:52 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:My system is based on comparing it to recent all-stars, one issue for centers is Embiid, Towns, Cousins, Davis if you call him one, all had among the best statistical resumes anyone has had recently. Some other centers like Noah and Horford were also very good although older. So the bar is very high and some prospects with physical tools but holes like Ayton and Bamba fall a little short. Looking at it right now it appears I was too hard on Jaren Jackson in that ranking, he is only elite at one thing (blocks) but he is not bad at anything else, and he has 15 BPM. His splits are relatively similar to Towns where blocks was also his highest stat, and both players raw minutes per game were lowered.

I am very bullish on numbers for European prospects, and prospects who are the best players on their team. Musa is the guy on his on his Adriatic team (puts up 21/5/4/3/.61 TS% per 40, leads them in scoring and PER) and is super young, he just turned 19 earlier this month. At the same age Jokic was about as good as him in Adriatic. Bitadze is also around that level statistically and is still 18 right now, although he plays 23 minutes.

Okogie seems high and I might drop him if I include any sort of conventional scouts rating. Basically I got there because SF had the most consistent type of player who's had success from NCAA, long armed wings with defensive stats and passing. You've got Kawhi, George, Butler, Deng, Iguodala, and then some wings on the scoring side with Durant, Hayward, Melo. Ball handling, Okogie's main weakness is not essential based on this track record. Tatum if he goes on to be an all-star fits in relatively well with the group. This plays well on Okogie and the 2 Bridges. It's not like Okogie is a total role player as scorer either as he is over 20 pt/40 both seasons. I guess it might matter that Okogie is relatively short in shoes but has 7 foot wingspan, most of those guys are tall in shoes as well. I have him listed as a SF but if a SG only he would rank a little lower. Miles Bridges has the same problem where if he plays PF it deflates the comparison to all those two way wings
How much would Doncic's rating change if you listed him as a SF or PF?

Dr Positivity
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Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:44 pm

Re: 2018 Draft Models and Discussion

Post by Dr Positivity » Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:49 am

Nathan wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:My system is based on comparing it to recent all-stars, one issue for centers is Embiid, Towns, Cousins, Davis if you call him one, all had among the best statistical resumes anyone has had recently. Some other centers like Noah and Horford were also very good although older. So the bar is very high and some prospects with physical tools but holes like Ayton and Bamba fall a little short. Looking at it right now it appears I was too hard on Jaren Jackson in that ranking, he is only elite at one thing (blocks) but he is not bad at anything else, and he has 15 BPM. His splits are relatively similar to Towns where blocks was also his highest stat, and both players raw minutes per game were lowered.

I am very bullish on numbers for European prospects, and prospects who are the best players on their team. Musa is the guy on his on his Adriatic team (puts up 21/5/4/3/.61 TS% per 40, leads them in scoring and PER) and is super young, he just turned 19 earlier this month. At the same age Jokic was about as good as him in Adriatic. Bitadze is also around that level statistically and is still 18 right now, although he plays 23 minutes.

Okogie seems high and I might drop him if I include any sort of conventional scouts rating. Basically I got there because SF had the most consistent type of player who's had success from NCAA, long armed wings with defensive stats and passing. You've got Kawhi, George, Butler, Deng, Iguodala, and then some wings on the scoring side with Durant, Hayward, Melo. Ball handling, Okogie's main weakness is not essential based on this track record. Tatum if he goes on to be an all-star fits in relatively well with the group. This plays well on Okogie and the 2 Bridges. It's not like Okogie is a total role player as scorer either as he is over 20 pt/40 both seasons. I guess it might matter that Okogie is relatively short in shoes but has 7 foot wingspan, most of those guys are tall in shoes as well. I have him listed as a SF but if a SG only he would rank a little lower. Miles Bridges has the same problem where if he plays PF it deflates the comparison to all those two way wings
How much would Doncic's rating change if you listed him as a SF or PF?
He's #1 anywhere he plays. For European players it mainly comes to how good you are for your age/league for me. I don't go into positions and statistical categories nearly to the level of NCAA ones, there aren't the all-star players at each position to make any sort of headway in terms of comparisons. And the reason it's necessary to start looking at things like steal, assist rate, etc. for NCAA prospects is that trying to predict their NBA success by how good they are at college basketball has failed repeatedly in the past hence necessitating a plan B. Based on what I've seen it's less complicated for European players

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