2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

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Mike G
Posts: 4129
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:16 pm

After 2 games for everyone:

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk   e480
.61   LeBron James    Cle   42  .642   35.7  10.8   6.5   1.3   2.7    .4   3.48
.48   James Harden    Hou   36  .533   33.0   3.8   7.5   2.6   3.1   1.6   3.21
.43   Giannis A       Mil   44  .644   26.6  10.0   4.6   1.7   2.9    .4   2.33
.42   Victor Oladipo  Ind   33  .643   39.4   5.7   6.5   3.4   5.7    .6   3.13
.38   Clint Capela    Hou   32  .696   24.9  15.2   1.2    .6    .6   2.4   2.92

.38 Russell Westbrook OKC   37  .475   23.7  10.2   9.1   2.5   4.0    .0   2.47
.37   Anthony Davis   NO    41  .559   28.1  11.4    .9   1.8   3.7   2.7   2.22
.36   Kevin Durant    GSW   35  .644   34.4   9.0   6.8   1.0   3.1    .5   2.49
.36   Al Horford      Bos   40  .741   21.4   9.1   3.2   1.8    .5   1.4   2.15
.34   Klay Thompson   GSW   38  .853   40.9   1.1   3.4    .5   1.0    .0   2.21

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl    TO   Blk   e480
.33   Jrue Holiday    NO    39  .581   28.7   4.4   5.1   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.07
.32   Ben Simmons     Phl   37  .539   19.9   9.1   9.6   1.0   3.8   1.0   2.09
.32   Chris Paul      Hou   32  .569   28.6   3.2   6.8   2.9   4.1    .6   2.36
.30  Donovan Mitchell Uta   39  .524   27.0   7.1   2.1   1.4   2.6    .5   1.87
.29   Terry Rozier    Bos   39  .622   22.6   3.8   4.5    .9    .0    .5   1.80

.29   Paul George     OKC   41  .614   28.7   7.3    .4    .5   3.2   1.4   1.71
.28   Khris Middleton Mil   43  .757   26.1   5.6   2.2    .9   2.6    .4   1.56
.25   John Wall       Was   36  .547   20.8   4.0  11.9   2.0   5.0   1.5   1.68
.25   Nikola Mirotic  NO    40  .611   17.2   8.2   1.4    .9    .5   2.8   1.49
.24   Serge Ibaka     Tor   32  .673   19.0  13.9   2.1    .0    .6   2.8   1.84
Here's an alternative top 20, with xyz being the average of eWins, Win Shares, and VORP-scaled-to-wins.

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xyz     Player        Tm   MP    eW    WS    vW
.70   LeBron James   CLE   84   .61   .68   .81
.50   Al Horford     BOS   80   .36   .61   .52
.46   James Harden   HOU   72   .48   .38   .51
.45   Giannis A      MIL   88   .43   .49   .41
.42   Klay Thompson  GSW   75   .34   .52   .40

.41   Kevin Durant   GSW   70   .36   .49   .38
.40   Clint Capela   HOU   63   .38   .50   .31
.39   Victor Oladipo IND   65   .42   .30   .45
.37   Terry Rozier   BOS   78   .29   .48   .35
.33   Jrue Holiday   NOP   77   .33   .33   .33

xyz     Player        Tm   MP    eW    WS    vW
.32   Ben Simmons    PHI   73   .32   .33   .32
.32   R Westbrook    OKC   74   .38   .22   .35
.31   Nikola Mirotic NOP   79   .25   .33   .35
.30  Khris Middleton MIL   85   .28   .33   .28
.29   Chris Paul     HOU   64   .32   .26   .28

.27   JaVale McGee   GSW   35   .21   .31   .28
.27   Serge Ibaka    TOR   64   .24   .31   .25
.26   Anthony Davis  NOP   81   .37   .26   .13
.24   Derrick Favors UTA   67   .21   .27   .24
.23   John Wall      WAS   71   .25   .17   .27
.23   Dario Saric    PHI   67   .23   .20   .25
For some (Holiday, Simmons) it's total agreement. Then there are others in disagreement by a factor of 2 or more -- Anthony Davis and these:

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xyz    Player        Tm   MP    eW    WS    vW
.22  Thaddeus Young IND   66   .08   .29   .29
.20   Corey Brewer  OKC   62   .09   .25   .27
.20   Myles Turner  IND   69   .20   .28   .13
.20   DeMar DeRozan TOR   72   .23   .26   .10
.19   OG Anunoby    TOR   41   .10   .24   .22

.18   D Mitchell    UTA   78   .30   .17   .08
.18   Paul George   OKC   81   .29   .17   .09
.18   Ricky Rubio   UTA   66   .23   .12   .19
.18   J Valanciunas TOR   46   .24   .17   .12
.16   L Aldridge    SAS   62   .22   .16   .09
Any opinions on which stats vastly over- or under-rate these guys?

Mike G
Posts: 4129
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:34 pm

And I thought everyone had an opinion.
Well, check out the impact distribution of the Cavs, after 3 games:

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. Cavs    e480   ws48   BPM   min   eWins   WS  vorp
LeBron    3.52   .310   15.5  126    .92   .81   .57
Love      1.10   .055   -4.0  106    .24   .12  -.05
Smith      .04   .041   -2.0   98    .01   .08   .00
Nance      .57   .129    1.3   72    .08   .19   .06
Hood       .16   .014   -5.4   65    .02   .02  -.06

Hill       .48   .095   -3.1   62    .06   .12  -.02
Korver    -.06   .018   -2.6   55   -.01   .02  -.01
Green     -.21  -.103   -7.0   55   -.02  -.12  -.07
Clarkson  -.34  -.036   -7.6   55   -.04  -.04  -.08
Calderon -1.38  -.201  -13.1   23   -.07  -.10  -.07

.                 totals:     717   1.21  1.12   .27
LeBron has 76% of the eWins, 73% of their Win Shares, and 206% of the VORP.

Here are the Pelicans after going 3-0

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. Pels   e480   ws48   BPM   min   eWins   WS  vorp
Davis    2.50   .236   4.0   117    .61   .58   .18
Mirotic  2.36   .317  11.6   109    .54   .72   .38
Holiday  1.92   .200   5.9   109    .43   .45   .22
Rondo    1.50   .165   2.8   107    .33   .37   .13

Moore    -.05   .038  -1.3    79   -.01   .06   .01
Clark     .03   .047   -.8    69    .00   .07   .02
Miller    .24   .105   1.7    52    .03   .11   .05
Hill     -.02   .148   1.6    41    .00   .13   .04
Diallo   -.42  -.031  -7.2    21   -.02  -.01  -.03

.                  totals    704   1.92  2.47  1.01
Their Big 4 have 86% of the WS, 91% of vorp, and 100% of eWins. And doing 61% of the minutes.

Mike G
Posts: 4129
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:08 am

After 4 games, or 5, ranked by eWins per game:

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eW/G    per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.282   LeBron James   Cle   43  .613   32.2  10.9   6.9    .8   2.8   .9   3.15
.224   Anthony Davis  NOP   39  .629   33.2  11.4   1.0   1.7   2.4  2.6   2.78
.220   James Harden   Hou   35  .560   34.6   4.8   6.1   2.6   3.0  1.1   2.99
.191   Kevin Durant   GSW   37  .595   32.3   8.8   4.8    .6   3.6   .8   2.47
.189   Giannis A      Mil   39  .629   25.5   8.5   5.8   1.5   2.4   .9   2.30

.186   John Wall      Was   38  .525   22.2   5.3  14.4   2.7   4.2  1.0   2.38
.169   Ben Simmons    Phl   38  .545   15.9  10.5   8.3   2.4   4.2   .6   2.15
.157   Chris Paul     Hou   32  .619   28.1   4.2   6.5   2.9   2.7   .3   2.36
.156 Donovan Mitchell Uta   38  .534   27.2   8.3   2.7   1.2   2.6   .7   1.98
.152   Jrue Holiday   NOP   38  .620   28.9   3.9   5.7   1.2   3.3   .5   1.94

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.147   Victor Oladipo Ind   36  .533   25.0   5.8   6.5   2.3   4.9   .7   1.95
.146  Khris Middleton Mil   39  .672   26.2   5.7   3.1    .9   1.9   .7   1.80
.146   Clint Capela   Hou   31  .589   17.8  16.5   1.7    .3    .6  2.8   2.30
.146 LaMarcus Aldridge SA   35  .584   26.6   9.9   2.2    .6   2.0   .4   1.97
.143   Nikola Mirotic NOP   37  .702   20.3   9.4   1.3   1.7    .5  2.4   1.85

.140   Ricky Rubio    Uta   35  .497   19.4   8.3   8.7   2.1   3.9   .8   1.94
.127   Al Horford     Bos   36  .641   20.7  10.1   3.0    .8   2.5  1.3   1.71
.126 Russell Westbrook OK   37  .457   18.8  10.8   7.7   1.7   5.3   .0   1.64
.115   Paul George    OKC   40  .606   26.6   5.2   1.2   1.1   3.7   .7   1.37
.113   DeMar DeRozan  Tor   37  .523   24.1   4.6   5.9    .5   2.8   .3   1.49
.113   Rudy Gobert    Uta   36  .663   18.5  11.2   1.8   1.0   2.4  1.8   1.50
Alternative ranking in which xyz is the 5th root of: (mpg*(PER-5)*(WS/48)*(BPM+5)*(eW/480))

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xyz     playoffs       tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
8.51   LeBron James    Cle   43   32.5   .324  14.3   3.15
7.23   James Harden    Hou   35   29.5   .253  11.3   2.99
6.63   Giannis A       Mil   39   27.6   .259   7.6   2.30
6.54   Anthony Davis   NOP   39   32.0   .293   5.0   2.78
6.40   Chris Paul      Hou   32   26.1   .261   8.3   2.36

6.31   Nikola Mirotic  NOP   37   22.8   .243   9.1   1.85
6.25   John Wall       Was   38   27.4   .181   8.5   2.38
5.93   Clint Capela    Hou   31   26.1   .283   5.5   2.30
5.83   Kevin Durant    GSW   37   23.9   .218   5.9   2.47
5.73   Ben Simmons     Phl   38   20.6   .202   7.3   2.15

xyz     playoffs       tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
5.59   Jrue Holiday    NOP   38   25.0   .197   5.3   1.94
5.56   Rudy Gobert     Uta   36   21.0   .226   6.3   1.50
5.44   Al Horford      Bos   36   22.4   .209   5.5   1.71
5.19   Khris Middleton Mil   39   23.0   .188   4.2   1.80
5.12   Thaddeus Young  Ind   35   17.2   .195   7.0   1.07

5.11   Derrick Favors  Uta   34   19.0   .210   5.7   1.23
4.92   Ricky Rubio     Uta   35   19.3   .148   5.7   1.94
4.77 LaMarcus Aldridge SAS   35   24.7   .189   2.7   1.97
4.73   Draymond Green  GSW   38   15.9   .150   6.0   1.40
4.46   Al-Farouq Aminu Por   33   21.2   .152   3.4   1.44
Next are Jaylen Brown (Bos) and Oladipo (Ind), whose ws/48 is below-avg (.089)
Missing are all Thunders -- Westbrook (.002 WS/48) and George (.090 and 0.3 BPM) are unloved by one or more.
Mirotic BPM is 3rd highest, much higher than A Davis, who is also below Holiday.

Biggest pickups and dropoffs from RS to PS, according to GameScore :

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GS+    Game Score      tm    RS     PS
9.0   John Wall       Was   15.7   24.7
6.7  Al-Farouq Aminu  Por    8.0   14.7
6.5   Nikola Mirotic  NOP   12.0   18.5
6.1   Jrue Holiday    NOP   15.3   21.4
5.9   Jaylen Brown    Bos    9.6   15.5
5.5   Ricky Rubio     Uta   10.4   15.9
5.3   Terry Rozier    Bos    9.0   14.3
5.1  Donovan Mitchell Uta   13.0   18.1
5.0   LeBron James    Cle   24.0   29.0
4.9   Rajon Rondo     NOP    9.5   14.4

GS-    Game Score      tm    RS     PS
10.8  Damian Lillard  Por   20.6    9.8
10.4 Hassan Whiteside Mia   13.0    2.6
8.3   Karl-A Towns    Min   19.1   10.8
6.4   Kevin Love      Cle   14.4    8.0
6.1   Taj Gibson      Min   10.8    4.7
5.9   R Westbrook     OKC   20.8   14.9
5.5   Steven Adams    OKC   13.7    8.2
5.4   Eric Bledsoe    Mil   14.0    8.6
5.2   Jimmy Butler    Min   19.2   14.0
5.1   Eric Gordon     Hou   11.1    6.0
There may be others. I just went off those with GS>10.0 in either RS or PS.

Crow
Posts: 5288
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Crow » Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:37 am

My general rules of thumb are that WS/48 overrated good shooters, BPM / VORP high role / high volume passers and versatile passer / rebounders and over punishes cases where one or both I'd not in their talent or role. PER overvalues usage. EWins like the others doesn't get at individual shot defense. All these metrics will underrate superior on team shot defenders, if they exist and they do.

On my phone the format breaks making it hard to read and near endless scrolling is also a deterrent but let's see what else I can say.

LBJ is outplaying Harden. Capela should be a lock for the max. Embid nowhere to be seen here, in part because of efg%. Simmons though.

Oh, and Warriors and Cavs shot distributions suck. Warriors ok on efg% but very rare that a team ranked 5th would win title. Cavs 10th. Rockets also below average, very unlikely to win title unless this changes.

Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:59 pm

Crow wrote:My general rules of thumb are that WS/48 overrated good shooters,...
Really it's players who don't miss shots nor get turnovers, even if they never shoot or move the ball.
All these metrics will underrate superior on team shot defenders, if they exist and they do.
Right. Not much one can do with boxscore stats, other than figure the good defenders get more minutes than they otherwise would, and at least have a chance to pick up some counted stats.
In general, the worst correlation with minutes is from WS/48; eWins tends to be closest (or BPM), so I feel pretty good about that.
Embid nowhere to be seen here, in part because of efg%. Simmons though.
He has only played 91 minutes, so missed the cutoff for previous post. The summary stats have wide interpretation of the Sixers:

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Phl       PER   WS/48  BPM  e480
Simmons   20.6  .202   7.3  2.15
Redick    18.5  .227   2.0  1.32
Belinelli 16.7  .209   3.0  1.10
Covington 10.8  .117   2.8   .82
Saric     16.0  .145   3.2  1.51

Ilyasova  13.7  .126   1.0  1.05
Embiid    16.6  .092   1.0  1.90
Amir      17.0  .193   4.4   .87
McConnell 13.9  .154   1.4   .65
Anderson   4.5  .025  -9.5  -.14
Fultz      5.5  .024  -4.0   .27
I have Embiid as near his all-star self -- huge Blk, Reb, Usg rates, good TS%. The others say he's meh.
On my phone the format breaks making it hard to read and near endless scrolling...
That's a drag. I try to keep things compact and concise without having to jettison good stuff. A tiny screen would kill me. Used laptop is pretty cheap.

Crow
Posts: 5288
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Crow » Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:04 pm

My home laptop died. Haven't replaced yet.

Mike G
Posts: 4129
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:33 am

Data dump of advanced stats from round 1 winning teams:

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tm   . first round    Min    PER   WS/48   BPM
Bos   Terry Rozier    252   20.0   .187    5.1
Bos   Al Horford      245   22.5   .201    6.0
Bos   Jaylen Brown    244   14.9   .094     .1
Bos   Jayson Tatum    233   15.9   .103    1.2
Bos   Marcus Morris   193    9.5   .007   -6.8
Bos   Semi Ojeleye    127    2.3   .006   -5.4
Bos   Aron Baynes     122   18.5   .191    3.7
Bos   Shane Larkin    110   11.4   .101   -2.4
Bos   Marcus Smart     83    6.0  -.064   -3.2
Bos   Greg Monroe      59   14.5  -.016   -6.1
Bos Guerschon Yabusele 24    7.6   .044    1.6
Bos   Abdel Nader      14   21.7   .187    5.8

tm   . first round    Min    PER   WS/48   BPM
Cle   LeBron James    288   35.8   .346   16.9
Cle   J.R. Smith      230    4.3  -.039   -4.5
Cle   Kevin Love      229    9.5  -.004   -6.0
Cle   Kyle Korver     161   11.4   .083   -1.2
Cle   Jeff Green      146    8.5   .033   -3.4
Cle   Larry Nance     137   14.2   .123     .2
Cle   Rodney Hood     132    6.8  -.013   -6.9
Cle   Jordan Clarkson 127    3.1  -.086   -9.3
Cle   George Hill      81   16.0   .140   -1.3
Cle   Jose Calderon    76    1.8  -.059   -5.5
Cle  Tristan Thompson  58   16.4   .128   -1.0
Cle   Cedi Osman       10   -6.9  -.255  -15.5
Cle   Ante Zizic        4    8.3  -.175  -12.1

tm   . first round    Min    PER   WS/48   BPM
GSW   Klay Thompson   196   17.3   .163    1.7
GSW   Draymond Green  188   15.9   .150    5.9
GSW   Kevin Durant    186   24.0   .218    5.8
GSW   Andre Iguodala  135   12.3   .141    2.5
GSW   Kevon Looney    100   10.2   .104    1.9
GSW  Shaun Livingston  97   16.4   .149    -.4
GSW   Quinn Cook       87   10.2   .106    -.9
GSW   JaVale McGee     82   23.8   .260    5.7
GSW   David West       80   20.6   .258    7.4
GSW   Nick Young       30    -.8  -.025   -6.6
GSW   Jordan Bell      11    8.6   .079   -4.1
GSW   Damian Jones      8  -12.8  -.379  -21.2

tm   . first round    Min    PER   WS/48   BPM
Hou   James Harden    179   29.0   .246   10.9
Hou   Trevor Ariza    173   10.2   .093    1.2
Hou   Chris Paul      162   23.4   .217    6.2
Hou   Clint Capela    155   29.4   .323    6.4
Hou   Eric Gordon     154   10.6   .043   -1.9
Hou   P.J. Tucker     134    5.6   .037   -1.1
Hou   Gerald Green     92   12.7   .103   -3.7
Hou   Nene Hilario     59   12.7   .140     .5
Hou   Ryan Anderson    46   15.3   .158    3.8
Hou   Joe Johnson      25    7.0   .034   -3.0
Hou   Aaron Jackson     8   -5.2  -.200  -10.3
Hou   Zhou Qi           6   16.3   .184   -2.9
Hou   Tarik Black       5   11.6   .166    -.6
Hou   Chinanu Onuaku    3   38.4   .615   29.4

tm   . first round    Min    PER   WS/48   BPM
NOP   Anthony Davis   155   32.0   .292    5.0
NOP   Jrue Holiday    150   25.1   .197    5.3
NOP   Nikola Mirotic  149   22.8   .243    9.1
NOP   Rajon Rondo     141   17.5   .154    1.8
NOP   E'Twaun Moore   114    8.6   .058     .4
NOP   Ian Clark        80    6.6   .023    -.9
NOP   Darius Miller    75    8.5   .083    1.4
NOP   Solomon Hill     58    9.7   .142    1.8
NOP   Cheick Diallo    21     .7  -.053   -7.7
NOP   Jordan Crawford   7     .6  -.457  -19.2
NOP   DeAndre Liggins   6   -2.9  -.140  -11.3
NOP   Emeka Okafor      4  -14.4  -.271  -13.6

tm   . first round    Min    PER   WS/48   BPM
Phl   Ben Simmons     188   20.7   .202    7.3
Phl   J.J. Redick     160   18.5   .227    2.0
Phl   Marco Belinelli 154   16.8   .209    3.0
Phl  Robert Covington 149   10.9   .117    2.8
Phl   Dario Saric     149   16.1   .146    3.2
Phl   Ersan Ilyasova  135   13.7   .126    1.0
Phl   Joel Embiid      91   16.7   .092    1.0
Phl   Amir Johnson     77   17.1   .193    4.4
Phl   T.J. McConnell   41   13.9   .154    1.4
Phl   Justin Anderson  24    4.5   .024   -9.5
Phl   Markelle Fultz   23    5.6   .024   -4.0
Phl   Richaun Holmes    9    -.3   .102   -2.2
Phl   Furkan Korkmaz    2   54.9   .362   24.0

tm   . first round    Min    PER   WS/48   BPM
Tor   DeMar DeRozan   218   18.5   .080   -2.8
Tor   Kyle Lowry      217   18.9   .162    4.8
Tor   Serge Ibaka     172   10.5   .047   -1.5
Tor   Delon Wright    149   19.5   .158    5.5
Tor Jonas Valanciunas 148   23.4   .189    1.8
Tor   OG Anunoby      131   15.2   .167    4.3
Tor   C.J. Miles      128   12.2   .094     .3
Tor   Jakob Poeltl     96   15.8   .151    2.3
Tor   Pascal Siakam    96   17.1   .166    2.1
Tor   Norman Powell    24   -2.5  -.128  -12.8
Tor   Fred VanVleet    22    1.0  -.153   -8.1
Tor   Lucas Nogueira   20   -7.8  -.160   -9.3
Tor   Lorenzo Brown    19    3.3  -.089   -6.4

tm   . first round    Min    PER   WS/48   BPM
Uta  Donovan Mitchell 232   20.8   .149    2.2
Uta   Rudy Gobert     213   20.2   .209    5.5
Uta   Joe Ingles      212   12.4   .131    2.5
Uta   Derrick Favors  197   17.3   .178    4.2
Uta   Ricky Rubio     181   15.9   .097    3.6
Uta   Jae Crowder     165    8.5   .049     .5
Uta   Royce O'Neale   108   10.3   .124    3.4
Uta   Dante Exum       56    4.0  -.085   -7.8
Uta   Jonas Jerebko    38    6.8   .021   -3.8
Uta   Alec Burks       22   34.6   .273    6.8
Uta   Ekpe Udoh        10    4.2  -.049   -3.3
Uta   Raul Neto         5    1.4   .090   -9.4
Uta   David Stockton    1     .0   .022   -3.0
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html
From these and later b-r.com summaries, one can extract rates for round 2, etc.

LeBron has 2.08 WS and the rest of his team 0.49
That's .30 per game for him; for perspective, the Blazers totaled .21 WS per game, Spurs .20 ...

For players w >10 mpg, correlations with mpg:
.63 - eW/484
.55 - PER
.51 - BPM
.42 - WS/48

Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:06 pm

First round eWins-per-game leaders. Per team game, that is.

Code: Select all

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.308   LeBron James   Cle   41  .639   35.0  10.2   6.6   1.3   3.4   .9   3.59
.224   Anthony Davis  NOP   39  .629   33.2  11.4   1.0   1.7   2.4  2.6   2.78
.215   James Harden   Hou   36  .553   31.0   4.9   6.8   2.5   3.0  1.3   2.89
.201   Victor Oladipo Ind   37  .539   24.2   9.2   7.1   2.4   3.7   .4   2.59
.191   Kevin Durant   GSW   37  .595   32.3   8.8   4.8    .6   3.6   .8   2.47

.190   Giannis A      Mil   40  .606   25.5   9.2   5.3   1.3   2.3   .8   2.28
.182   R Westbrook    OKC   39  .486   26.4  10.6   6.5   1.4   4.9   .0   2.23
.178   Clint Capela   Hou   31  .648   21.4  16.9   1.5    .2    .5  2.4   2.75
.169   Ben Simmons    Phl   38  .545   15.9  10.5   8.3   2.4   4.2   .6   2.15
.168   John Wall      Was   39  .518   22.1   5.8  11.1   2.2   4.6  1.2   2.07

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.161 Donovan Mitchell Uta   39  .550   28.3   6.7   2.6   1.4   2.6   .6   2.00
.152   Jrue Holiday   NOP   38  .620   28.9   3.9   5.7   1.2   3.3   .5   1.94
.146   L Aldridge     SAS   35  .584   26.6   9.9   2.2    .6   2.0   .4   1.97
.143   Nikola Mirotic NOP   37  .702   20.3   9.4   1.3   1.7    .5  2.4   1.85
.143  Khris Middleton Mil   39  .712   27.6   5.0   2.7    .8   2.2   .6   1.74

.138   Chris Paul     Hou   32  .572   23.0   4.6   6.7   2.3   2.2   .2   2.04
.134   Al Horford     Bos   35  .655   22.2  10.5   3.2    .8   2.8  1.4   1.84
.118   Kyle Lowry     Tor   36  .606   18.5   5.4   9.1   2.0   3.1   .0   1.56
.116   Terry Rozier   Bos   36  .564   18.8   5.0   6.4   1.2   1.7   .5   1.55
.114   DeMar DeRozan  Tor   36  .519   25.3   3.7   5.5    .3   2.6   .2   1.51

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.110   Draymond Green GSW   38  .460   10.6  11.3   7.4   1.4   2.6   .9   1.40
.108   Ricky Rubio    Uta   30  .464   16.2   8.9   8.7   1.6   3.9   .6   1.73
.108   Rudy Gobert    Uta   36  .622   16.7  11.5   1.4   1.2   2.4  2.1   1.47
.106   Klay Thompson  GSW   39  .631   24.9   2.9   2.5    .4   1.5   .2   1.30
.104   J Valanciunas  Tor   25  .628   22.0  15.6   1.6   1.0   2.6  1.9   2.03

.104   Rajon Rondo    NOP   35  .542   11.3   7.8  12.4    .8   3.8   .3   1.41
.100   Karl-A Towns   Min   34  .531   15.0  14.5   1.8    .4   2.7  1.1   1.42
.099  Al-Farouq Aminu Por   33  .651   20.1  10.2   1.1   1.1   1.7   .6   1.44
.098   Paul George    OKC   42  .536   22.1   4.9   2.1   1.2   3.6   .6   1.12
.094   Dario Saric    Phl   30  .512   17.4   8.6   4.0   1.0   2.7   .2   1.51

Mike G
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Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Tue May 01, 2018 11:00 am

Terry Rozier has more big playoff games this year than Eric Bledsoe has in his career:

Code: Select all

Terry Rozier
GmSc   date
28.1  18-04-30
26.2  18-04-28
23.8  18-04-17
16.7  18-04-15
13.1  18-04-24

Eric Bledsoe
GmSc   date
21.4  12-05-15
16.8  12-05-20
16.1  13-04-20
15.9  18-04-28
14.0  18-04-20
http://bkref.com/tiny/uokQl

Mike G
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Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Thu May 03, 2018 12:02 am

Players who have averaged at least 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists in a postseason of at least 8 games:

Code: Select all

29-9-7  yr    Pts   Reb   Ast
Oscar   63   31.8  13.0   9.0
LeBron  09   35.3   9.1   7.3
LeBron  10   29.1   9.3   7.6
LeBron  15   30.1  11.3   8.5
LeBron  17   32.8   9.1   7.8
LeBron *18   33.4  10.1   8.4
Kevin Love has the 9th-worst playoff BPM (-6.5) of any All-Star in the 3-point era.
Damian Lillard (-4.7) was 19th worst.

In WS/48, Lillard is 13th from the bottom (-.062) and Love is 30th (-.027)
Worst PER turns up the same suspects: Dame at 9.5 ranks 19th worst, Love at 8.0 is 11th

Worst in the era:
PER -- Anthony Mason 2001 : 3.0
WS/48 -- Brandon Roy 2010 : -.124
BPM -- Andre Drummond 2016 : -10.1
-- all in short series.

Playoff teams ranked by ORtg-minus-DRtg:

Code: Select all

Tm    O-D   pW%   W  L
GSW  10.4   .80   6  1
Hou  10.2   .78   5  1
Phl   6.4   .70   4  2
Ind   6.3   .70   3  4
Bos   2.6   .59   5  3
Uta   1.8   .56   4  3
Tor   1.6   .56   4  3
NOP   1.5   .55   4  2

Mil  -0.6   .49   3  4
Was  -2.0   .43   2  4
OKC  -4.4   .35   2  4
Cle  -5.4   .34   5  3
Por  -9.1   .25   0  4
Min  -9.2   .24   1  4
SAS  -9.4   .22   1  4
Mia -10.7   .20   1  4
Pythagorean Win% are very approximate. Only one winning team ranks low, while one losing team ranks highly.

Mike G
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Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Mon May 07, 2018 10:10 am

Round 2 leaders thru 3 games:

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
.85   LeBron James  Cle   43  .554   28.5   7.8   8.2   1.4   2.0   .9   3.28
.76   James Harden  Hou   34  .609   40.3   6.6  10.3   1.8   2.4   .4   3.56
.65   Terry Rozier  Bos   39  .657   24.5   7.5   6.6   1.6    .6   .6   2.74
.48   Anthony Davis  NO   39  .537   22.5  11.8   2.2   2.8   1.3  1.5   1.96
.47   Joel Embiid   Phl   38  .477   20.4  14.4   3.9   1.0   2.8   .7   2.08

.44   Al Horford    Bos   37  .675   20.4   8.9   4.2   1.0   1.6  1.0   1.94
.43   Kevin Love    Cle   36  .527   17.9  15.5   1.7    .7   1.6   .7   1.99
.42  Draymond Green  GS   36  .662   17.3  11.3  10.5   1.4   3.9  1.3   1.89
.40   Clint Capela  Hou   32  .600   20.5  12.0   2.6   1.5   1.7  2.7   1.99
.40   J Valanciunas Tor   27  .553   18.6  22.7   1.5    .0   3.7  1.7   2.44

eWin   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
.38   Kevin Durant   GS   36  .550   24.6   6.8   4.1   1.4   2.4  1.6   1.69
.38   Kyle Lowry    Tor   38  .786   24.2   3.7   6.6   1.0   4.3   .0   1.65
.34   Jayson Tatum  Bos   38  .629   26.5   3.5   2.9    .6   3.2   .6   1.49
.31   Rajon Rondo    NO   36  .455   10.0   7.7  13.7   2.4   4.6   .3   1.36
.30   Chris Paul    Hou   33  .505   20.8   6.1   5.7   3.0   3.8   .0   1.49

.25   Jrue Holiday   NO   38  .509   16.1   5.3   5.0   1.0   1.3  1.0   1.08
.25   Rudy Gobert   Uta   35  .717   15.8  11.5    .9    .4   1.8  1.8   1.15
.23   J.J. Redick   Phl   37  .616   20.8   2.5   2.1   1.0   1.4   .0   1.02
.22   Stephen Curry  GS   19  .595   29.9   7.5   2.5   4.4   5.8  1.2   1.87
.19   Jeff Green    Cle   26  .672   18.4   2.4   2.1    .8    .5  1.8   1.20

Mike G
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Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Tue May 08, 2018 10:52 pm

In round 2 vs Toronto, LeBron James totaled 136 pts, 33 Reb, and 46 Ast. It's the 4th time he's gotten at least those numbers in a 2nd round series, and it's the 30th time anyone has done it in the last 35 postseasons (since 1984).
http://bkref.com/tiny/d9Qwm
Bird and Westbrook are in there 3 times; Harden, Iverson, and KJ are two-timers.
LeBron is the only one to hit these totals in a 4-game series; Magic did it in 5, the rest in 6 or 7.

LeBron had just 8 turnovers in the series. The other 29 range from 16 (Chris Paul '08) to 37 (LeBron in '08).
Most minutes (still 2nd-round) without a turnover:

Code: Select all

min  zero TO    yr   tm
169  Bowen      04  SAS
152  Kawhi      14  SAS
128  Tucker     18  Hou
128  M Williams 10  Cha
126  Ariza      18  Hou
126  JR Smith   18  Cle
Tristan Thompson (69 min) also makes the top 20 list of most TO-free minutes in a 2nd round series.
Jeff Green had 1 TO in 95 min. The Cavs totaled just 28 in 4 games, the fewest any team has had in a 2nd round, since 1984. (The '08 Pistons had just 36 in 5 games.)
http://bkref.com/tiny/6K9nm
Houston has 42 thru 4 games, which would rank 8th among 4-game series.

In the season, the Cavs averaged 13.7 TO, while Toronto forced 14.3 per game, which was league avg. So why couldn't they get the ball away from the Cavs but 7 times per game?

Mike G
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Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Thu May 10, 2018 12:43 pm

eWins leaders thru 2 rounds:

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
3.26   LeBron James  Cle   41  .612   32.9   9.5   7.6   1.4   2.9   .9   3.47
1.99   James Harden  Hou   35  .545   31.1   5.3   7.3   2.4   3.5   .7   2.72
1.82   Kevin Durant  GSW   37  .586   30.3   7.8   4.3   1.0   2.9  1.0   2.39
1.72   Anthony Davis NOP   40  .574   26.9  11.6   1.2   1.8   2.4  2.2   2.33
1.63   Chris Paul    Hou   33  .581   26.5   6.2   6.7   2.3   2.3   .2   2.37

1.56   Clint Capela  Hou   32  .621   18.7  14.2   1.8   1.2    .7  3.3   2.35
1.54   Al Horford    Bos   36  .642   19.8   9.9   3.5   1.2   2.5  1.3   1.74
1.49   Terry Rozier  Bos   37  .571   18.6   6.0   5.7   1.2   1.4   .5   1.61
1.41  Victor Oladipo Ind   37  .539   24.2   9.2   7.1   2.4   3.7   .4   2.59
1.33   Giannis A     Mil   40  .606   25.5   9.2   5.3   1.3   2.3   .8   2.28

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.31   D Mitchell    Uta   37  .507   23.2   5.8   3.9   1.4   3.0   .4   1.55
1.27  Draymond Green GSW   37  .526   13.0  11.0   7.6   1.9   3.1  1.3   1.64
1.17   Ben Simmons   Phl   37  .529   14.8   9.2   7.4   1.7   4.7   .8   1.54
1.12   J Valanciunas Tor   24  .589   21.6  17.9   1.7    .6   2.9  2.2   2.23
1.12   Jayson Tatum  Bos   35  .555   20.2   5.3   3.3   1.2   2.4   .6   1.28

1.10   Joel Embiid   Phl   28  .507   20.3  12.9   3.2    .9   4.2  2.0   1.93
1.09   Kyle Lowry    Tor   36  .649   18.8   4.9   8.4   1.5   3.2   .0   1.46
1.09   R Westbrook   OKC   39  .486   26.4  10.6   6.5   1.4   4.9   .0   2.23
1.08   Rudy Gobert   Uta   35  .642   15.8  11.4   1.0   1.0   2.1  2.4   1.37
1.06   Jrue Holiday  NOP   39  .576   22.0   5.0   4.7   1.1   2.5   .5   1.47

Mike G
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Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Sat May 12, 2018 6:56 pm

Round 2 series team totals for summary stats:

Code: Select all

tm    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Bos   15.0   .120   2.2   1.10
Phl   14.0   .086   -.2    .91

Cle   19.6   .183   5.5   1.32
Tor   14.6   .024  -2.5    .66

Hou   16.9   .168   3.6   1.16
Uta   12.4   .043    .6    .72

GSW   15.9   .144   2.2   1.23
NOP   12.8   .048   -.4    .76

avg   15.2   .102   1.4    .98
BPM adjusts for quality of opponent; WS and eWins displays avg for the series; PER just favors offenses.

A preview of conference finals, playoff rates thru 2 rounds, with xyz = avg of the other 4 after converting to win rates, in which avg = 1.00

Code: Select all

xyz      Celtics     mpg   e484   PER   WS/48   BPM
1.64   Terry Rozier   37   1.61   19.5   .184   5.7
1.77   Al Horford     36   1.74   21.4   .195   6.1
1.17   Jayson Tatum   35   1.28   17.2   .119   1.3
1.06   Jaylen Brown   32   1.14   15.9   .107   1.0
0.52   Marcus Smart   31    .65   10.3   .014    .2

0.25   Marcus Morris  29    .56    8.8   .011  -5.3
1.30   Aron Baynes    20   1.11   16.2   .180   2.6
-.11   Semi Ojeleye   15   -.51    2.7   .024  -4.1
0.49   Shane Larkin   14    .16   10.1   .088  -2.3
0.39   Greg Monroe    10    .84   14.5  -.008  -6.1


xyz       Cavs       mpg   e484   PER   WS/48   BPM
3.31   LeBron James   41   3.47   35.4   .337  16.2
0.77   Kevin Love     33   1.24   14.0   .065  -3.1
0.59   J.R. Smith     32    .30   10.1   .068    .8
0.77   George Hill    26    .54   13.3   .114  -1.2
1.06   Kyle Korver    26    .80   14.6   .137   2.3

0.84   Jeff Green     22    .56   13.7   .108    .5
-.26   Rodney Hood    17   -.23    4.2  -.049  -6.3
-.52  Jordan Clarkson 17   -.25    3.0  -.110  -8.2
1.18   Larry Nance    16    .75   17.0   .160   2.5
1.26 Tristan Thompson 16    .68   18.2   .198   1.8
-.19   Jose Calderon  14   -.43    3.0  -.028  -3.6



xyz       Dubs       mpg   e480   PER   WS/48   BPM
0.86   Klay Thompson  38   1.06   13.3   .097  -1.1
1.69   Draymond Green 37   1.64   18.7   .183   7.5
2.01   Kevin Durant   37   2.39   23.6   .206   5.9
1.87   Stephen Curry  31   2.10   23.7   .186   5.5
1.15   Andre Iguodala 28    .86   13.5   .159   3.6

0.91   Kevon Looney   21    .39   11.4   .151   2.3
0.61 Shaun Livingston 18    .55   11.6   .098  -3.3
0.56   Quinn Cook     16    .50   10.4   .086  -2.8
1.68   JaVale McGee   13   1.83   20.5   .217   2.3
1.82   David West     12   1.47   21.0   .244   6.3

-.22   Nick Young      8   -.43    1.7   .003  -5.5
1.10   Jordan Bell     5    .74   14.1   .157   2.6


xyz      Rockets     mpg   e480   PER   WS/48   BPM
2.38   James Harden   35   2.72   27.3   .229   9.4
2.23   Chris Paul     33   2.37   25.3   .243   8.2
0.56   Trevor Ariza   32    .26    8.5   .088    .2
2.39   Clint Capela   32   2.35   26.8   .296   8.0
0.45   Eric Gordon    31    .35   10.0   .053  -2.2

0.98   P.J. Tucker    30    .65   12.0   .147   2.4
0.17 Luc Mbah a Moute 19    .04    6.3   .018  -2.5
0.76   Gerald Green   15    .74   13.0   .119  -3.0
0.77   Nene Hilario   10    .46   12.2   .121   -.6
0.82   Ryan Anderson  11    .39   11.6   .128   1.3
-.09   Joe Johnson     7   -.23    4.8   .008  -5.9
RAPM would be nice to add to this mix.
Players are ranked by mpg, which is minutes per game that the player was in. It doesn't distinguish between the Currys who are unavailable for some games, and the Calderons who get benched.

Here are correlations to mpg for the various summary stats, separated into 1st round losers, 2nd round losers and winners.

Code: Select all

xyz   3rd  e484   PER  WS/48  BPM
.68   Cle   .79   .66   .56   .64
.66   Bos   .83   .72   .35   .62
.55   Hou   .58   .52   .44   .62
.24   GSW   .37   .22  -.10   .33
.53   avg   .64   .53   .31   .55
               
xyz   2nd  e484   PER  WS/48  BPM
.87   NOP   .86   .87   .77   .86
.29   Uta   .33   .12   .19   .47
.18   Tor   .45   .27  -.16  -.07
.14   Phl   .62   .10  -.48   .03
.37   avg   .56   .34   .08   .32
               
xyz   1st  e484   PER  WS/48  BPM
.81   Mil   .85   .85   .73   .68
.79   Was   .85   .77   .64   .81
.65   Min   .78   .67   .42   .36
.64   Mia   .72   .67   .34   .65
.64   OKC   .75   .75   .02   .33
.38   Ind   .60   .27  -.31   .66
.25   Por   .35   .34   .04   .26
.22   SAS   .38   .29   .10   .05
.55   avg   .66   .58   .25   .47
This only considered the top 9 players for each team: All played at least 10 mpg.

Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Sun May 13, 2018 9:04 am

Through 2 rounds, Trevor Ariza (Hou) has played 323 minutes with only 2 turnovers. Next most minutes with 3 or fewer is TR Dunn 1986 (Den), 276 min., since 1984.
Another 8 TO-free minutes and he'll pass John Paxson '93 for most minutes with 4 or fewer TO.
Teammate PJ Tucker ranks 5th with 4 TO in 298 min.
Marco Bellinelli (Phl) had 4 in 273 min, ranking 7th. Jeff Green (Cle) ranks 15th.
http://bkref.com/tiny/hNzcl

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