2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

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Mike G
Posts: 4130
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Mon May 14, 2018 8:06 pm

Alternate views of game 1, Bos 108-83 Cle

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game 1   tm   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Horford  Bos   27   43.4   .686   28.1   .39   .20
Tatum    Bos   37   18.4   .268   10.0   .21   .11
Brown    Bos   28   29.5   .338   10.5   .20   .09
Morris   Bos   35   21.8   .324    3.3   .24   .05
Baynes   Bos   25   13.0   .212    7.9   .11   .06

Rozier   Bos   35   11.2   .156    1.6   .11   .03
Thompson Cle   21   24.5   .177   -1.0   .08   .01
Love     Cle   31   17.9   .065   -0.5   .04   .01
Green    Cle   19   12.3   .122   -3.6   .05  -.01
Smart    Bos   24    8.0   .025   -0.9   .01   .01

game 1   tm   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Korver   Cle   24    9.4  -.006   -1.6   .00   .00
Ojeleye  Bos   16   -2.1   .036   -5.3   .01  -.01
Clarkson Cle   16   16.7  -.035   -8.2  -.01  -.02
Hill     Cle   28    4.0  -.004   -6.3   .00  -.03
Hood     Cle   19   10.2  -.049  -13.3  -.02  -.05

Smith    Cle   29   -1.8  -.184  -12.4  -.11  -.08
LeBron   Cle   36    5.5  -.304   -5.6  -.23  -.03


.             min    PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
totals   Bos  240   18.1   .261    7.1  1.32   .55
.        Cle  240    9.2  -.059   -6.2  -.29  -.25
Yesterday before this game, espn writers were wondering how the Celtics could possibly "upset" the Cavs.
In the season the Celts were 2.6 ppg better.
In the playoffs they were 2.5 better thru 2 rounds.
Celts with home court. How would it be an "upset" for them to win?

Now with one big loss, at least one espn writer is sure LeBron cannot win again in Cleveland, and he must move on.
It's still just one loss. The series is as close as it could possibly be after one game.

EDIT: Now after 2 games

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gm 1-2   tm   mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Horford  Bos   33   31.3   .423   16.8   .57   .30
Brown    Bos   32   25.8   .272    8.9   .36   .17
Smart    Bos   28   19.7   .219    8.0   .25   .14
LeBron   Cle   38   22.8  -.009    9.8  -.01   .22
Tatum    Bos   34   12.1   .141    4.2   .20   .11

Baynes   Bos   21   18.2   .247    6.0   .22   .08
Morris   Bos   35   13.6   .178     .7   .26   .05
Rozier   Bos   35   11.4   .125    1.3   .18   .06
Monroe   Bos    6   26.6   .467    8.2   .11   .03
Love     Cle   33   19.9   .124   -2.4   .17  -.01

gm 1-2   tm   mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Thompson Cle   25   16.4   .106   -3.9   .11  -.02
Ojeleye  Bos   13    3.5   .135   -4.1   .07  -.01
Korver   Cle   23   12.4   .056   -4.3   .05  -.03
Nance    Cle    8    3.0  -.001   -8.2   .00  -.02
Clarkson Cle    8   16.7  -.048  -11.9  -.02  -.04

Hill     Cle   31    3.6  -.010   -4.7  -.01  -.04
Hood     Cle   15    7.5  -.069  -13.0  -.04  -.08
Green    Cle   24    3.9  -.082   -8.1  -.08  -.07
Smith    Cle   28   -6.0  -.218  -15.3  -.25  -.19

gm 1-2   tm   mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
totals   Bos  240   17.6   .220    5.5  2.20   .90
.        Cle  240   10.4  -.016   -4.7  -.16  -.33
Cavs have just 6 steals in 2 games. Only a handful of conference finalists in the last 33 years have averaged as few as 5

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yr   tm    G  St/G
05   Mia   7   4.7
13   Ind   7   4.9
87   Bos   7   5.0
97   Mia   5   5.0
98   Uta   4   4.5
15   Cle   4   4.5
Those last 2 went to the Finals with 4-0 sweeps.
After just 8 turnovers in the Toronto series, LeBron has 13 in these 2 games.

Another comparison, Game Scores:

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Bos     GmSc   GmSc    Cle
Horford 20.5   19.6   LeBron
Brown   17.6   14.7   Love
Smart   11.6    8.0  Thompson
Morris  10.7    6.2  Clarkson
Rozier   9.7    6.1   Korver
Tatum    9.6    2.9   Hood
Baynes   8.0    2.4   Hill
Monroe   3.0    2.4   Green
Ojeleye  1.5     .5   Nance
.   .          -2.0   Smith
Huge differential in the #6-7 slots.

Mike G
Posts: 4130
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Tue May 15, 2018 3:53 pm

Alternative views of Dubs-Rockets game 1

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game 1     tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Harden    Hou   35   40.7   .373   17.2   .27   .17
Thompson   GS   42   23.3   .238   10.0   .21   .13
Curry      GS   35   22.8   .245   10.1   .18   .11
Capela    Hou   30   26.8   .238   10.3   .15   .09
Iguodala   GS   28   14.6   .212    6.8   .12   .06

Durant     GS   41   25.6   .196     .9   .17   .03
D Green    GS   37   10.9   .094    5.3   .07   .07
Paul      Hou   39   20.6   .130    2.5   .11   .04
Young      GS   15   20.6   .255    4.2   .08   .02
Looney     GS   25    6.7   .094    3.3   .05   .03

game 1     tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
West       GS    4   39.6   .585   15.5   .05   .02
Livingston GS   13   20.4   .171    2.5   .05   .01
Anderson  Hou    5  -10.0  -.261  -17.4  -.03  -.02
G Green   Hou   17    5.4  -.024   -9.7  -.01  -.03
Hilario   Hou    5   -9.2  -.328  -24.1  -.03  -.03

Tucker    Hou   34     .3  -.087   -4.4  -.06  -.02
Gordon    Hou   34    8.0  -.087   -7.2  -.06  -.04
Ariza     Hou   24    2.7  -.114  -11.4  -.06  -.06
L M a M   Hou   17  -14.1  -.437  -20.9  -.15  -.08

totals     GS  240   18.9   .195    6.0   .97   .48
.         Hou  240   13.1   .024   -1.6   .12   .02
Series now 1-1

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gm 1-2     tm   mpg   PER   WS/48  BPM   WS   vorp
Harden    Hou   34   28.6   .217   8.8   .31   .18
Tucker    Hou   35   15.7   .184   7.1   .27   .16
Ariza     Hou   30   20.2   .237   8.0   .29   .15
Gordon    Hou   34   20.6   .181   2.8   .25   .08
Paul      Hou   36   18.1   .137   3.7   .21   .10

Durant     GS   38   26.5   .148    .6   .23   .05
Curry      GS   35   16.1   .096   3.5   .14   .10
Capela    Hou   31   14.9   .115   3.6   .15   .09
Thompson   GS   40   15.0   .080   1.8   .13   .08
Young      GS   16   14.6   .151   1.9   .10   .03

gm 1-2     tm   mpg   PER  WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
D Green    GS   37    9.6   .007   2.1   .01   .07
Looney     GS   18   11.5   .047   1.6   .04   .03
Iguodala   GS   28    9.3   .032    .0   .04   .03
Livingston GS   16   15.5   .105  -0.7   .07   .01
West       GS    5   21.0   .114  -0.3   .02   .00

G Green   Hou   16    2.5  -.014  -7.4  -.01  -.04
Luc       Hou   12  -11.6  -.399 -19.9  -.20  -.11

totals    Hou  240   16.1   .122   2.7  1.22   .56
.          GS  240   16.1   .086   1.9   .86   .46
Given that PER rates them even, let's look at Game Scores:

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GSW       GmSc    GmSc   Hou
Durant    23.2    22.8  Harden
Thompson  13.7    15.6  Gordon
Curry     13.6    15.1  Paul
D Green    8.4    12.4  Ariza
Iguodala   5.9    11.6  Tucker
Livingston 5.6     9.5  Capela
Young      5.3     1.2  G Green
Looney     4.5    -2.0  Luc
West       2.1         
totals    82.3    86.2
Rockets are better at 2 thru 6, but nothing after that.
Adding in gigantic garbage-time numbers by Zaza and Q, they're probably even.
Just among the rotation players, the Rockets have the 3 best rebounders thus far -- Capela, Harden, Paul -- while the Dubs have the 4 worst : Durant, Thompson, Young, West.

Mike G
Posts: 4130
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Sun May 20, 2018 12:13 pm

After 3 games in the East:

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gm 1-3    tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
LeBron   Cle   38   28.0   .206   13.7   .49   .44
Horford  Bos   32   25.3   .306   11.6   .60   .32
Brown    Bos   28   20.1   .154    3.6   .27   .12
Baynes   Bos   22   17.1   .171    4.5   .23   .11
Tatum    Bos   33   14.1   .114    1.8   .24   .10

Korver   Cle   22   16.8   .164    1.8   .22   .06
Love     Cle   32   17.9   .123   -0.2   .25   .04
Smart    Bos   27   14.3   .079    2.6   .13   .09
Nance    Cle   12   17.0   .200    7.6   .15   .09
Thompson Cle   24   18.7   .187   -1.5   .28   .01

gm 1-3    tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Morris   Bos   31   11.6   .099   -2.5   .19  -.01
Rozier   Bos   33   11.1   .056   -1.0   .11   .02
Monroe   Bos    9   21.8   .241   -1.0   .14   .01
Hill     Cle   30    6.4   .048   -1.9   .09   .00
Ojeleye  Bos   15    1.7   .010   -4.1   .01  -.02

Green    Cle   22    6.3   .020   -4.2   .03  -.04
Clarkson Cle   11   10.7  -.002   -6.9   .00  -.04
Hood     Cle   10    6.9  -.009  -10.3  -.01  -.06
Smith    Cle   27   -2.2  -.103   -9.9  -.18  -.16

.        Bos  240   14.6   .121    1.6  1.81   .65
totals   Cle  240   13.2   .085   -0.4  1.27   .29
PER doesn't think much of this series -- like 2 teams who shouldn't be here. It's not used in the ranking, just there for reference.
Players are ranked by WS/2 + vorp


EDIT 5-22
Series now tied at 2-2, both teams with 101 ppg

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gm 1-4   tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
LeBron   Cle   39   28.8   .210  11.9   .68   .53
Horford  Bos   34   21.0   .232   6.9   .66   .30
Korver   Cle   23   18.8   .225   3.6   .42   .13
Brown    Bos   31   19.4   .142   2.5   .36   .14
Nance    Cle   12   25.2   .320  11.5   .31   .16

Baynes   Bos   21   19.7   .211   4.2   .36   .13
Thompson Cle   28   18.8   .183    .1   .42   .06
Rozier   Bos   34   13.9   .090   1.9   .26   .13
Hill     Cle   32    9.9   .101    .6   .27   .08
Tatum    Bos   35   11.9   .078  -1.1   .23   .03

gm 1-4   tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Smart    Bos   28   11.3   .020    .8   .05   .08
Morris   Bos   30   10.7   .077  -2.6   .19  -.02
Monroe   Bos    7   21.5   .230  -1.7   .13   .00
Love     Cle   31   12.8   .041  -2.3   .11  -.01
Ojeleye  Bos   14    2.7   .024  -4.5   .03  -.03

Hood     Cle    8    6.9   .018  -9.6   .01  -.06
Clarkson Cle   10    8.1  -.013  -8.2  -.01  -.06
Green    Cle   22    3.1  -.025  -4.8  -.04  -.06
Smith    Cle   29     .3  -.055  -7.0  -.13  -.14

gm 1-4   tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
totals   Cle  240   13.8   .100    .4  1.99   .58
.        Bos  240   14.1   .107    .8  2.14   .67
Not sure how Bos > Cle in all these stats, when Cavs have one point more than Celts?

Mike G
Posts: 4130
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Mon May 21, 2018 11:03 am

GSW 2-1 Hou

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gm 1-3    tm   mpg   PER   WS/48  BPM   WS   vorp
Durant    GS   37   28.3   .245   5.0   .57   .20
Curry     GS   34   22.6   .197   6.8   .42   .23
Harden   Hou   34   26.0   .139   7.1   .29   .23
D Green   GS   37   12.6   .109   6.2   .25   .23
Iguodala  GS   27   14.8   .158   5.8   .27   .16

Thompson  GS   38   13.7   .084   2.8   .20   .14
Tucker   Hou   34   12.0   .085   2.0   .18   .10
Looney    GS   17   13.5   .146   5.9   .16   .10
Capela   Hou   28   19.0   .116   1.7   .20   .08
Young     GS   17   13.6   .175   3.2   .18   .07

gm 1-3    tm   mpg   PER   WS/48  BPM   WS   vorp
Ariza    Hou   32   13.3   .092    .6   .18   .06
Paul     Hou   35   15.4   .044    .7   .10   .07
L'ston    GS   16   16.3   .126   1.4   .13   .04
Gordon   Hou   33   14.1   .032  -2.2   .07   .00
G Green  Hou   17    3.2  -.082 -10.6  -.09  -.11
Luc      Hou   13   -5.9  -.269 -16.0  -.22  -.14

totals   Hou  240   13.5   .037  -1.0   .55   .19
.         GS  240   18.6   .168   5.5  2.51  1.34
These rates are just current player rates minus previous rates, over round 3 minutes.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... s_advanced
Subtracting the gm 1+2 totals from these, we see Hou got -.67 Win Shares for last night's appearance, and -.37 VORP.
Also -.60 pythagorean wins and -.05 eWins.


EDIT -- May 23, series tied 2-2, GS with 7.25 ppg advantage

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gm 1-4    tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Harden    Hou   36   26.0   .163   8.0   .49   .36
Durant     GS   39   25.6   .220   4.2   .70   .24
D Green    GS   39   14.0   .115   7.2   .37   .36
Curry      GS   36   20.7   .162   5.5   .47   .27
Tucker    Hou   37   12.0   .117   3.3   .35   .20

Iguodala   GS   21   15.7   .167   6.6   .28   .18
Paul      Hou   37   16.5   .080   2.0   .24   .14
Ariza     Hou   34   11.9   .102   1.6   .29   .12
Looney     GS   20   12.2   .136   5.7   .22   .15
Thompson   GS   38   11.2   .066   1.3   .21   .13

gm 1-4    tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Capela    Hou   27   18.4   .124    .4   .28   .06
Young      GS   16    8.9   .103  -0.2   .13   .03
Bell       GS    9   11.5   .127   3.2   .09   .04
Livingston GS   16   11.2   .029  -1.4   .04   .01
Gordon    Hou   33   12.3   .023  -3.2   .06  -.04

G Green   Hou   16    4.8  -.051  -8.9  -.07  -.11
Luc       Hou   10   -5.5  -.266 -15.7  -.22  -.14

totals     GS  240   17.0   .144   4.7  2.89  1.61
totals    Hou  240   13.9   .064    .1  1.28   .50

Mike G
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Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Wed May 23, 2018 4:06 pm

Converting PER and BPM roughly to "wins", xyz is the avg of those, WS, and eWins.
After 4 games, both series tied, the best conference finalists:

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xyz   gm 1-4  tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.82   LeBron  Cle   39   28.8   .210  11.9   2.88
.66   Durant  GSW   39   25.6   .220   4.2   2.30
.62   Harden  Hou   36   26.0   .163   8.0   2.29
.53   Horford Bos   34   21.0   .232   6.9   1.61
.52   Curry   GSW   36   20.7   .162   5.5   2.16

.42   Green   GSW   39   14.0   .115   7.2   1.12
.38   Brown   Bos   31   19.4   .142   2.5   1.78
.34   Paul    Hou   37   16.5   .080   2.0   1.30
.31  Thompson Cle   28   18.8   .183    .1   1.29
.30   Korver  Cle   23   18.8   .225   3.6   1.33

xyz   gm 1-4  tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.29   Rozier  Bos   34   13.9   .090   1.9   1.14
.28   Tucker  Hou   37   12.0   .117   3.3    .51
.27   Baynes  Bos   21   19.7   .211   4.2   1.19
.27   Capela  Hou   27   18.4   .124    .4   1.30
.23   Nance   Cle   12   25.2   .320  11.5   1.63

.23  Iguodala GSW   21   15.7   .167   6.6    .76
.21  Thompson GSW   38   11.2   .066   1.3    .41
.21   Ariza   Hou   34   11.9   .102   1.6    .20
.20   Love    Cle   31   12.8   .041  -2.3   1.48
.20   Tatum   Bos   35   11.9   .078  -1.1    .65

xyz   gm 1-4  tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
.18   Hill    Cle   32    9.9   .101    .6    .26
.16   Looney  GSW   20   12.2   .136   5.7    .17
.15   Morris  Bos   30   10.7   .077  -2.6    .75
.14   Smart   Bos   28   11.3   .020    .8    .69
.12   Gordon  Hou   33   12.3   .023  -3.2    .47

Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
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Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Fri May 25, 2018 11:24 am

Down 3-2, the Dubs are still up by 5 ppg in the series.

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gm 1-5     tm  mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Curry      GS   37   21.2   .167   6.2   .63   .37
Durant     GS   39   24.2   .200   3.0   .80   .24
D Green    GS   40   12.6   .091   5.8   .37   .38
Paul      Hou   37   18.1   .115   4.0   .44   .28
Harden    Hou   37   21.8   .097   4.4   .37   .29

Tucker    Hou   38   10.7   .103   2.4   .41   .21
Looney     GS   20   12.8   .151   5.8   .31   .19
Ariza     Hou   36   10.5   .094   1.9   .34   .17
Capela    Hou   27   20.3   .163   1.5   .45   .12
Iguodala   GS   16   16.2   .162   7.1   .28   .19

gm 1-5     tm  mpg   PER    WS/48  BPM   WS   vorp
Thompson   GS   39   11.8   .068   1.5   .27   .17
Gordon    Hou   34   15.3   .087  -0.8   .30   .05
Cook       GS    4   37.6   .375  13.7   .15   .08
Bell       GS   10   10.3   .121   2.4   .12   .05
Young      GS   13    8.9   .101  -0.4   .13   .03

West       GS    4   16.3   .177   4.2   .08   .03
Livingston GS   16   10.0   .028  -1.7   .05   .01
Anderson  Hou    3   -1.7  -.150  -8.0  -.04  -.02
Johnson   Hou    2   -3.1  -.301 -17.9  -.07  -.05
G Green   Hou   16    7.4  -.002  -6.4   .00  -.09
Luc MM    Hou    8   -5.5  -.259 -15.3  -.21  -.13

gm 1-5     tm  mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
totals    Hou  240   14.2   .078    .7  1.96   .81
totals     GS  240   16.3   .133   4.1  3.32  1.84
EDIT -- out of order, sorry about that
Bos 3, Cle 2

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gm 1-5   tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
LeBron   Cle   39   29.8   .230  12.5   .93   .70
Horford  Bos   34   21.0   .227   6.8   .81   .38
Baynes   Bos   22   19.0   .205   3.9   .48   .16
Brown    Bos   32   18.8   .136   2.3   .45   .17
Rozier   Bos   34   14.8   .105   2.5   .38   .19

Nance    Cle   13   23.6   .289   9.8   .38   .19
Korver   Cle   22   18.2   .213   3.4   .48   .15
Thompson Cle   27   18.8   .185    .3   .53   .08
Hill     Cle   32   10.3   .102    .4   .34   .10
Tatum    Bos   36   12.8   .085  -0.7   .32   .06

gm 1-5   tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Smart    Bos   27   11.2   .020    .8   .06   .09
Monroe   Bos    5   21.5   .230  -1.7   .13   .00
Morris   Bos   31   10.4   .065  -3.1   .21  -.04
Love     Cle   31   13.0   .045  -2.4   .14  -.02
Ojeleye  Bos   11    2.7   .024  -4.5   .03  -.03

Yabusele Bos    4     .2  -.003  -7.2   .00  -.03
Green    Cle   22    4.9  -.002  -3.9  -.01  -.05
Hood     Cle    7    6.7   .013  -9.4   .01  -.06
Clarkson Cle   11    7.0  -.035  -8.2  -.04  -.08
Smith    Cle   28    1.7  -.038  -5.9  -.11  -.14

gm 1-5   tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
totals   Cle  240   14.2   .104    .6  2.59   .79
totals   Bos  240   14.4   .109    .9  2.72   .88
East series tied 3-3

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gm 1-6   tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
LeBron   Cle   40   29.7   .218  12.1  1.09   .85
Horford  Bos   35   17.7   .183   4.6   .80   .34
Nance    Cle   14   27.1   .312  12.0   .55   .30
Rozier   Bos   35   16.4   .128   3.5   .56   .29
Tatum    Bos   36   14.6   .113   1.6   .51   .20

Brown    Bos   32   18.7   .135   1.3   .54   .16
Hill     Cle   32   12.5   .122    .7   .49   .13
Baynes   Bos   22   14.8   .152   2.3   .41   .14
Smart    Bos   28   14.8   .089   2.4   .31   .19
Korver   Cle   23   14.9   .162   1.0   .46   .10

gm 1-6   tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Thompson Cle   27   14.3   .130  -1.1   .43   .04
Monroe   Bos    6   19.0   .167  -2.6   .11   .00
Love     Cle   27   13.0   .042  -3.4   .14  -.06
Morris   Bos   31    8.8   .039  -3.6   .15  -.07
Hood     Cle    6   13.4   .111  -8.1   .08  -.05

Ojeleye  Bos    9    3.1   .032  -5.3   .04  -.05
Green    Cle   24    6.7   .017  -4.1   .05  -.07
Clarkson Cle   11    7.8  -.040 -10.0  -.06  -.14
Smith    Cle   30   -0.9  -.066  -7.3  -.25  -.24

gm 1-6   tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
totals   Cle  240   14.2   .101    .3  3.02   .82
totals   Bos  240   14.3   .109   1.0  3.29  1.08

Mike G
Posts: 4130
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Mon May 28, 2018 12:27 pm

Final ECF summary rankings (by WS/2 + vorp)

Code: Select all

. ECF     tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
LeBron   Cle   288   29.3   .218  12.3  1.31  1.03
Horford  Bos   249   18.1   .190   4.5   .98   .40
Nance    Cle    93   24.7   .296  10.5   .57   .29
Tatum    Bos   260   14.8   .111   1.3   .60   .21
Rozier   Bos   248   13.6   .086   2.3   .44   .27

Baynes   Bos   149   14.9   .164   2.1   .51   .15
Thompson Cle   195   14.9   .155  -0.5   .63   .07
Brown    Bos   231   16.4   .102    .2   .49   .13
Hill     Cle   231   11.0   .104  -0.1   .50   .11
Korver   Cle   153   12.9   .149    .9   .47   .11

. ECF     tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Smart    Bos   199   13.5   .068   1.8   .28   .19
Green    Cle   185    9.1   .057  -2.7   .22  -.03
Morris   Bos   219   10.1   .057  -3.0   .26  -.05
Love     Cle   160   13.7   .055  -2.8   .18  -.03
Monroe   Bos    33   19.3   .167  -2.3   .11  -.00

Osman    Cle    20    8.5   .042  -2.8   .02  -.00
Hood     Cle    33   14.0   .129  -8.1   .09  -.05
Calderon Cle    13    5.3   .099  -8.1   .03  -.02
Zizic    Cle    10   15.4  -.010  -6.5  -.00  -.01
Ojeleye  Bos    56    3.5   .036  -5.7   .04  -.05

. ECF     tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Yabusele Bos    21   -3.1  -.078  -8.9  -.03  -.04
Nader    Bos    16   -7.6  -.364 -19.8  -.12  -.07
Clarkson Cle    77    5.7  -.059 -10.6  -.10  -.16
Smith    Cle   222    1.3  -.031  -5.4  -.14  -.19

totals   Bos  1680   13.9   .102    .7  3.57  1.14
totals   Cle  1680   14.0   .108   1.4  3.79  1.44
And going into tonight's game 7 out West:

Code: Select all

gm 1-6     tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   WS   vorp
Curry      GS   37   21.8   .186   7.2   .86   .51
D Green    GS   39   14.0   .126   7.8   .61   .57
Durant     GS   38   23.3   .209   2.8   .99   .27
Thompson   GS   39   15.9   .139   4.7   .67   .39
Harden    Hou   37   21.7   .082   5.0   .38   .39

Looney     GS   20   13.7   .171   6.8   .42   .26
Paul      Hou   31   18.1   .104   3.4   .39   .25
Tucker    Hou   38    9.9   .085   1.5   .40   .20
Iguodala   GS   14   16.1   .188   8.0   .32   .20
Capela    Hou   27   18.2   .124    .0   .42   .08

gm 1-6     tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   WS   vorp
Ariza     Hou   36    9.0   .048  -0.3   .22   .09
Cook       GS    4   32.8   .358  12.2   .18   .09
Bell       GS   12    9.5   .105   1.9   .15   .07
Young      GS   13    8.5   .114    .0   .19   .04
Gordon    Hou   34   14.3   .053  -1.9   .22   .00

West       GS    5   16.1   .200   4.6   .11   .04
Livingston GS   16    9.0   .038  -1.6   .08   .01
G Green   Hou   18    8.3   .001  -5.8   .00  -.10
Luc       Hou    9   -3.9  -.230 -12.7  -.26  -.14

gm 1-6    tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
totals    Hou  240   13.2   .051   -.3  1.54   .61
totals    GSW  240   16.9   .157   5.1  4.70  2.55
EDIT 5-29
WCF summaries

Code: Select all

WCF        tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Curry      GS   268   22.2   .190   8.3  1.05   .69
Durant     GS   274   24.5   .232   4.0  1.31   .41
D Green    GS   279   13.1   .108   6.8   .62   .61
Thompson   GS   266   16.5   .143   4.7   .79   .45
Harden    Hou   267   22.1   .080   5.4   .44   .50

Tucker    Hou   271   11.8   .099   2.6   .55   .31
Looney     GS   135   13.0   .154   5.1   .43   .24
Capela    Hou   200   20.0   .148   1.0   .61   .15
Paul      Hou   184   18.7   .104   3.4   .39   .25
Iguodala   GS    82   16.5   .193   7.5   .33   .20

WCF        tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Bell       GS    85    9.8   .093   3.0   .16   .11
Gordon    Hou   243   15.0   .060  -1.5   .30   .03
Cook       GS    26   31.4   .356  10.4   .19   .08
Young      GS    96    8.3   .120    .2   .24   .05
West       GS    27   16.6   .211   4.6   .12   .04

Livingston GS   120    8.9   .058  -1.6   .14   .01
Ariza     Hou   259    6.5  -.002  -1.8  -.01   .01
Anderson  Hou    28   -4.0  -.143  -9.2  -.08  -.05
Johnson   Hou    25   -2.3  -.246 -15.8  -.13  -.09
G Green   Hou   127    6.8  -.020  -7.1  -.05  -.16
Luc       Hou    54   -3.9  -.233 -13.0  -.26  -.15

WCF        tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
totals     GS  1680   17.0   .158   5.1  5.53  2.98
totals    Hou  1680   13.4   .050  -0.2  1.75   .77

Nathan
Posts: 135
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2013 4:30 pm

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Nathan » Tue May 29, 2018 4:08 pm

Maybe this should be its own thread, but I was wondering...has anyone made statistical plus/minus based *only* on playoffs data? Obviously the coefficients would have higher uncertainty, but it would be very interesting to see if they change in any significant way from their regular season values.

Mike G
Posts: 4130
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Tue May 29, 2018 5:03 pm

Playoff BPM is I think adjusted for the regular season BPM of the opponent.
Are you saying it could be re-calibrated to include playoff numbers? Seems that would have a lot of echoes.

Or are you saying it could be nothing but playoff data for opponent strength? That would make every team in round one sum to zero (or other designated avg). Eliminated teams would then be continually readjusted til the playoffs end.

Nathan
Posts: 135
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2013 4:30 pm

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Nathan » Tue May 29, 2018 10:53 pm

Mike G wrote:Playoff BPM is I think adjusted for the regular season BPM of the opponent.
Are you saying it could be re-calibrated to include playoff numbers? Seems that would have a lot of echoes.

Or are you saying it could be nothing but playoff data for opponent strength? That would make every team in round one sum to zero (or other designated avg). Eliminated teams would then be continually readjusted til the playoffs end.
I'm saying re-calculate the BPM formula using the same methodology but only playoff box score and play-by-play data for the regression. See what changes (e.g. are steals more or less valuable in the postseason? assists? blocks? threes?).

Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Tue May 29, 2018 11:51 pm

Aha. I'm guessing there's more variation from one playoff series to another, than there is from RS to PS overall.
I calculate each series separately. In Hou-Min, steals were not as heavily weighted as normal; turnovers, blocks, and fouls were extra heavy. In Hou-Uta, these were all normal. In Hou-GS, steals and blocks were a bit light, while TO and PF again gained weight.
Letting these weights vary, within limits, eWins matches up with point-differential. And in fact, all Stl / Blk / TO / PF are not equal on the scoreboard.

Nathan
Posts: 135
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2013 4:30 pm

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Nathan » Wed May 30, 2018 12:01 am

Mike G wrote:Aha. I'm guessing there's more variation from one playoff series to another, than there is from RS to PS overall.
I calculate each series separately. In Hou-Min, steals were not as heavily weighted as normal; turnovers, blocks, and fouls were extra heavy. In Hou-Uta, these were all normal. In Hou-GS, steals and blocks were a bit light, while TO and PF again gained weight.
Letting these weights vary, within limits, eWins matches up with point-differential. And in fact, all Stl / Blk / TO / PF are not equal on the scoreboard.
Very cool! Good to know. I think I agree with your intuition that there's more variation from series to series than from RS to PO. Just wondered if there's anything to the "playoffs are a totally different game!" line that talking heads repeat without fail every year.

Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
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Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Wed May 30, 2018 9:56 am

Cavs going into the Finals. Showing round 1-3 rates, per 36 minutes, adjusted to fit each series.

Code: Select all

   George Hill                        
eW   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   12  .649   18.7   4.9   3.6    .4   3.2   .4    .93
.08   32  .612   12.1   2.4   3.3    .0   1.3   .6    .30
.17   33  .545   11.8   2.6   1.9   1.0    .9   .7    .35

   J.R. Smith                        
-.07  33  .441    8.3   3.8   1.3   1.3   1.8   .3   -.15
.29   31  .862   19.3   2.4   1.9   1.8    .0   .0   1.15
-.16  32  .374    5.7   3.4    .9    .3    .9   .4   -.35

   Jeff Green                        
.06   21  .443    7.7   3.8   2.7    .7    .7   .9    .19
.22   24  .653   18.2   3.6   2.3    .7    .4  1.4   1.16
.14   26  .560   13.1   4.9   1.0    .2   2.2  1.2    .35

   Jordan Clarkson                        
-.09  18  .369    6.0   2.8   2.2    .2   1.3   .2   -.34
-.01  14  .364    7.8   4.5   2.1   2.2   3.2   .0   -.07
.04   11  .379   11.5   5.2    .0    .4    .5   .5    .28

   Kevin Love 
eW   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.36   33  .460   11.7  11.8   1.3    .6   2.7   .3    .75
.58   35  .569   21.3  14.4   1.5   1.1   1.8  1.1   2.07
.52   23  .475   17.7  14.8   3.0    .7   3.5   .2   1.57

   Kyle Korver                        
.18   23  .586   13.5   4.8   1.5    .9   1.4   .5    .55
.29   32  .784   20.7   3.4   1.9    .9    .7   .0   1.13
.24   22  .638   16.9   3.9    .6    .5   1.0  1.4    .74

   Larry Nance                        
.15   20  .621    9.1   8.1   1.2   1.4   1.2   .9    .53
.07    2  1.00   36.2  14.7    .0    .0    .0  6.5   4.04
.33   13  .784   16.0  10.5   2.3   2.9   1.9  2.3   1.72

   LeBron James                        
eW   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
2.16  41  .639   35.0  10.2   6.6   1.3   3.4   .9   3.59
1.11  42  .569   29.4   8.2   9.4   1.5   2.0   .9   3.27
1.82  41  .598   36.7   8.5   6.9   1.0   5.4  1.1   3.04

   Rodney Hood                        
-.04  19  .512   10.5   1.9   1.9    .7   2.0   .2   -.15
-.04  10  .111     .5   6.6   3.1    .0   1.9   .8   -.53
.06    5  .514   19.5   2.2   3.7    .0   1.1   .0    .92

   Tristan Thompson                        
.08    8  .692   11.9  10.0   1.8    .6   2.9   .6    .70
.09   17  .677   10.5  10.2    .9    .0    .0   .0    .67
.39   28  .627   12.2  11.4   1.0    .2   1.0   .8    .95
mpg are minutes divided by team games, so zero = 0
And the Dubs:

Code: Select all

   Andre Iguodala                        
eW   mpg   Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.24   27   .543   11.1   7.3   4.6    .8   1.4   .5    .86
.25   28   .557    9.9   6.1   3.6   2.6    .8   .5    .84
.14   12   .684   14.2   6.1   2.5   2.3   2.3   .5    .84

   David West                        
.23   16   .667   14.7   9.1   3.9   1.7   1.3  1.2   1.39
.13    8   .571   13.7   5.3   8.5   1.6   2.5  3.3   1.60
.04    4   .571   10.5   5.1   6.9    .0   1.3   .0    .62

   Draymond Green                        
.55   38   .460   10.6  11.3   7.4   1.4   2.6   .9   1.40
.72   37   .592   15.3  10.7   7.9   2.4   3.7  1.6   1.87
.65   40   .479    7.2  11.3   7.1   1.8   3.6  1.6   1.12

   Jordan Bell                        
.00    2   .375    6.9   5.9   2.7    .0    .0   .0    .19
.05    5   .300    2.7   7.8   5.7   2.8    .0  2.8   1.00
.05   12   .462    4.4  10.7   2.2   1.2   2.4  2.0    .31

   Kevin Durant                        
eW   mpg   Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.96   37   .595   32.3   8.8   4.8    .6   3.6   .8   2.47
.86   36   .577   28.3   6.9   3.9   1.4   2.1  1.2   2.28
1.27  39   .584   30.5   5.5   2.8    .3   1.8   .8   2.23

   Kevon Looney                        
.07   20   .449    6.9   6.7   2.6   1.4   1.4  1.0    .32
.10   23   .636    8.8   8.3   1.5   1.2    .6   .3    .44
.12   19   .464    6.3   9.5   1.2   1.3    .6  1.1    .44

   Klay Thompson                        
eW   mpg   Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.53   39   .631   24.9   2.9   2.5    .4   1.5   .2   1.30
.30   37   .474   16.6   5.9   1.4    .2   1.2   .4    .78
.60   38   .613   20.4   3.4   1.7   1.5   1.7   .3   1.08

   Nick Young                        
-.04   6   .375    5.0    .0    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.72
-.02   8   .440    7.6   3.2    .7    .9    .9   .0   -.22
.00   14   .638   11.4   2.2   1.2    .0    .4   .0   -.02

   Quinn Cook                        
.08   17   .518   11.3   4.8   1.8    .4    .8   .7    .43
.07   12   .484   15.0   4.8   1.8    .6   1.2   .0    .59
.12    4   .741   31.7   2.6   2.8   2.5   1.3   .0   2.21

   Shaun Livingston                        
.19   19   .573   18.3   5.0   2.6   1.0   2.2   .0    .94
.01   16   .448    9.1   2.3   4.0    .0   1.3   .4    .07
.02   17   .521   10.3   4.7   1.6    .8   1.7   .0    .07

   Stephen Curry                        
eW   mpg   Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.55   25   .641   31.8   5.7   3.3   2.3   4.5   .6   2.10
1.31  38   .576   25.6   6.5   6.3   1.6   2.4   .8   2.35
Curry's lines are round 2 and 3

Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Thu May 31, 2018 1:58 am

eWins leaders thru the conference finals

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
5.09   LeBron James   Cle   41  .607   34.4   9.1   7.3   1.2   3.9  1.0   3.31
3.09   Kevin Durant   GSW   38  .585   30.4   6.9   3.7    .7   2.4   .9   2.31
3.03   James Harden   Hou   37  .538   29.1   5.4   6.5   2.3   4.2   .7   2.34
2.23   Al Horford     Bos   36  .619   18.4   9.2   3.3   1.0   1.9  1.1   1.58
2.20   Chris Paul     Hou   30  .559   23.6   6.5   5.9   2.1   2.2   .3   2.04

2.16   Clint Capela   Hou   31  .630   17.0  14.3   1.5   1.0   1.2  2.6   2.00
2.04   Terry Rozier   Bos   37  .532   16.8   5.7   5.5   1.3   1.3   .3   1.42
1.92   Draymond Green GSW   38  .511   10.5  11.1   7.4   1.8   3.4  1.4   1.41
1.86   Stephen Curry  GSW   23  .597   27.5   6.2   5.3   1.9   3.1   .7   2.27
1.72   Anthony Davis  NOP   40  .574   26.9  11.6   1.2   1.8   2.4  2.2   2.31

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.67   Jayson Tatum   Bos   36  .567   20.4   4.9   2.7   1.2   2.4   .5   1.18
1.51   Jaylen Brown   Bos   31  .557   21.2   5.9   1.5    .9   1.5   .6   1.25
1.46   Kevin Love     Cle   29  .498   16.0  13.4   1.9    .8   2.7   .5   1.34
1.43   Klay Thompson  GSW   38  .570   20.7   4.0   1.9    .8   1.5   .3   1.06
1.41   Victor Oladipo Ind   37  .539   24.2   9.2   7.1   2.4   3.7   .4   2.59

1.33   Giannis A      Mil   40  .606   25.5   9.2   5.3   1.3   2.3   .8   2.28
1.31 Donovan Mitchell Uta   37  .507   23.2   5.8   3.9   1.4   3.0   .4   1.53
1.17   Ben Simmons    Phl   37  .529   14.8   9.2   7.4   1.7   4.7   .8   1.54
1.12   J Valanciunas  Tor   24  .589   21.6  17.9   1.7    .6   2.9  2.2   2.23
1.10   Joel Embiid    Phl   28  .507   20.3  12.9   3.2    .9   4.2  2.0   1.93

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.09   Kyle Lowry     Tor   36  .649   18.8   4.9   8.4   1.5   3.2   .0   1.47
1.09   R Westbrook    OKC   39  .486   26.4  10.6   6.5   1.4   4.9   .0   2.23
1.08   Rudy Gobert    Uta   35  .642   15.8  11.4   1.0   1.0   2.1  2.4   1.36
1.06   Jrue Holiday   NOP   39  .576   22.0   5.0   4.7   1.1   2.5   .5   1.46
1.02   Dario Saric    Phl   33  .538   17.6   8.0   3.8   1.1   1.8   .5   1.50

1.01   John Wall      Was   39  .518   22.1   5.8  11.1   2.2   4.6  1.2   2.07
1.00  Khris Middleton Mil   39  .712   27.6   5.0   2.7    .8   2.2   .6   1.74
.86    DeMar DeRozan  Tor   35  .503   20.9   4.2   4.3    .5   2.5   .6   1.17
.81    Aron Baynes    Bos   20  .582   11.3  11.8   1.7    .4    .8   .9   1.00
.78    Nikola Mirotic NOP   36  .605   15.6   9.3   1.3   1.1   1.2  1.4   1.17

Mike G
Posts: 4130
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.

Post by Mike G » Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:11 am

LeBron's RS and PO BPM

Code: Select all

yr      RS   POmin   PO
2006    9.3   604    7.3
2007    7.4   893    8.5
2008   11.2   552   11.3
2009   13.0   580   18.2
2010   12.5   460   11.2
Cle1   10.7  3089   11.0

2011    8.6   922    7.8
2012   11.0   983   11.0
2013   11.6   960   10.2
2014    8.9   763   10.4
.Mia   10.2  3628    9.8

2015    7.4   844   11.0
2016    9.1   822   13.1
2017    8.4   744   11.5
2018    9.6   743   14.7
Cle2    8.9  3153   12.5
Do the oddsmakers give Cle another 3-5 points in consideration of this?
LeBron's postseason uptick of +5.1 in BPM is right up there with +5.2 in 2009.

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