APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 4:56 am 
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Finally got to it!

In this post, the machine learning scout dives into the detail of the Bucks most used lineups and starts to answer:
• What the bucks starters prioritize that goes against NBA trends
• Why the bucks starters struggle with Thon Maker
• What Brogdon lineups do well vs the same lineups with Bledsoe
• Non Giannis lineup that can hang around long enough to keep them in the game
• What rarely used lineup should be looked at more (Another lineup without Bledsoe)


http://www.zigzaganalytics.com/home/sco ... e-learning


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:12 pm 
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Thanks for the meaty, direct post.

Comments: Bucks used 6 biggest minute lineups in regular season about 15 minutes per game. In playoffs about 20 minutes. That shows some of the expected increase in concentration; but these levels are still too low. Lineups used less than 2 minutes per game still got about 60% of the total time.

The injury to Henson makes comparing regular season to playoffs less consistent or helpful. Playing Parker with Maker was awful in regular season but is doing very well in playoffs. I guess good going, ride it ... til it stops working, maybe. Parker with Giannis though continues to be poor. The choice of the big Zeller lineup failed terribly. Very little tested in regular season. They passed on others more tested.

It is not the worst lineup management I've seen. But it could be far, far more concentrated. Bledsoe lineups can work but sometimes don't. Probably always going to be this way in short sample but your analysis could help. Lineup matchup analysis would be good with more time.

I tweeted this out to a Bucks fan for visibility and possible further comment. https://mobile.twitter.com/bballstrateg ... 595456?p=v


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:56 pm 
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It is close, closer than usual, but Bucks with slight positive edge with 6 most used lineups, slightly larger negative with rest of lineups. Small differences can have major impact, sometimes. Small change in lineup management might save series. So far it is losing it. Deference to coach, insufficient discipline are hallmarks of today's game still. Numbers can change but probably better to go with them than against.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:27 pm 
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Joe prunty is copping heat from basketball twitter world for tactics and lineups but I’m going to cut him some slack, I think he’s done a fine job with taking over mid season and doing what he can with what he has.

It would take a ballsy coach to flat out cut Bledsoe’s minutes right down in the playoffs.

For me, next season the bucks really need to build the 3 ball into their offensive strategy a little more, not saying it has to be a Houston level, but just around league average. To do that though, they need a roster that can shoot because right now there is no point shooting 3s when you basically only have tony snell.

Again, prunty is getting slammed for the Bucks not shooting 3s, but he’s working with The strengths of his roster.

More important in my mind is the rebounding numbers, they just get slaughtered far too often. If they had the same true shooting % hey have now (with no 3s) but just could grab rebounds they would be a lot better. A mix of strategy but also they need personnel to do it. Maker isn’t a great rebounder despite his athleticism, that’s what he needs to become.

Bledsoe has 1 year left at a 15m deal next season, an expiring contact could be moveable. I’d be looking at moving him or atleast not extending it and moving on from him in 1 season.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:33 pm 
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For this series with Boston, like you said no crazy lineup change with them is going to matter a whole lot. I would be finding delly more minutes though at point. Just reduce Bledsoe a little.

Rebounding is the key for me....in my Boston machine learning scout, beating Boston on the boards almost always led to a win. (This was true through the first 30 or so games when I ran it). Unfortunately not a strength of the Bucks, but if they can pull it off and keep getting points in the paint at a good clip they have a chance


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:51 pm 
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Any thoughts on pace for them? Looking at this https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... rder_by=mp it seems they are losing almost every lineup with a pace below 90 and winning most that avg. faster. Pace might a product of bad lineup / bad play rather than the cause but something else to study.

Looking at video was a good added step. If I was doing analysis for a team I would watch a lot more video.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:15 pm 
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On the rebounding issue, Bucks might want to consider a bid for Ed Davis this summer.

By this http://www.82games.com/1718/1718MIL4.HTM they had some regular season success against good rebounding teams, much better than against average rebounding teams. Could be randomness. Could it be focus? Tape review of rebounding effort might be appropriate, illimuminating if one can be objective and not just find the pattern you want to find.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:41 am 
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The scout said the bucks needed to rebound better and keep getting points in the paint to put them in a good position. They did both of these in Game 6 and pulled off a great win.

50 points in the paint and a TS% of 57.6% to go with 87.2 DREB% and 17.5 OREB%. Hit all the targets they needed to and pulled out the win.

The earlier Celtics scout still holds true, beat the celtics on the boards and more times than not you beat them. Bucks did a fantastic job controlling the glass.

In regards to the question around pace....my model didn't pick that up as a bigger factor than the boards, point in the paint etc....not to say it's not a factor, just not as highly valued.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:31 am 
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In lastest Bucks victory, they "won" total rebounds. Neither side did much offensive rebounding. Celtics misses more shots and Bucks nabbed them, didn't screw it up.

You use rebound %s. That is better.


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