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The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:21 am 
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Oshley says playoffs revealed Blazers lacking in experience. I can agree with that but I'll also say "well, duh". Age required for playoff success or much of it or much probably of it should be well known. Try to go young and buck that, you'll often come up short and you did it. Noting lack of experience also seems easier to say than admitting to insufficient talent, bad contracts, lack of leadership and inadequate design & chemistry. But whatever with the words. Do something about it. Better than previous years.

Also, the experience argument has more validity with the weak bench. The starters may be a little young but they shouldn't get off the hook with that excuse. The two most experienced of them just played way too poorly individually and all of them sucked on team plus minus.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:26 am 
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Celtics in playoffs... one real factor strength. But this time it was own turnovers not shot defense, a much less influential factor, usually. Above average on Moreyball shot distribution but did poorly with it. Very low team efg%. Below average offensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency ended up only very modestly above average.

Largely repeat of regular season. The level of success, imo, belies how far they have to go. Need several new strengths and / or reduction of meh and weaknesses.

Is it earned to claim special toughness when there are so many average performance levels? Toughness involves going beyond average. A little bit more can make a difference, to a point. The point where they stopped having enough.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:12 pm 
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Brett Brown to play central role in free agency recruiting? I guess given GM situation and because presumably it is a fairly common role. And perhaps because he bubbles / rambles easy going, happy talk and qualifies as a cool uncle or dad? I have not been that impressed the few times I've listened to him... but maybe players will. If they focus on this season, though one could say they underachieved in playoffs. Totally forget the 4 years with almost the worst record for a coach in NBA history for anyone who coached more than 1 year. Oh, there is the record in the minor, minor league, the Popovich affiliation... but also the terrible playoff team efg%...

Why is it that most (or nearly everybody) gives him very little or no part of the blame for the 4 awful years but lots of the credit for the good 5th? It could be the reverse or somewhere in between.

That Hinkie hired him? Going into a long, hardcore tank? Don't want a coach who might mess that up with overperformance. He didn't though. Unless they all did with this season (with league heavy hand pushing).


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:55 pm 
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My Blazers off season plan (putting aside firing GM):

Trade McCollum, preferably with Turner but trade him for a wing / forward who defends and / or gets to line & rim. Not giving away at discount but really want change and wouldn't ask an unrealistic price.
Only match Nurkic if it is a reasonable amount. Sign Davis if cheaper.
Switch out some of bench for more proven vets who shoot better, get to line more and play better defense.
Draft a forward or two.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:38 pm 
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Harden probably not winning a title without even more help. Playoff RAPM not good enough to "carry" a team this time or on recent year average. Not close. It is going to be a ensemble win or not a win.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:42 pm 
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If league had really wanted cap smoothing they could have changed structure of TV deals and / or offered players interest on the deferred share of revenues. But they wanted more revenue sooner and (correct me if I'm wrong) deferred expenditures without net compensation for the delay. League caused issue.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:02 pm 
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If Blazers become willing to trade Lillard (no indication they are willing), then sure find a trade if you can. And probably still trade McCollum and lots of others and rebuild for 3-5 years from now. That is really what I'd do here, lots of places.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:27 pm 
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Hawks:

I'd of course try to trade Bazemore. In lieu of that I'd bring him off bench until or unless tanking is underway. Trading Plumlee seems unlikely but maybe you take back a worse contract and get a pick. Trade Dedmon and Muscala if they come back. Should have been last season. Jackson, Sexton, Milton, Bonga and Okogie would be nice draft haul.

Design around Moreyball, rebounding. Shot defense where you can get it with the above.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:59 pm 
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Nuggets:

Beyond firing Coach and GM, which they aren't doing yet; I'd look at trading anyone but 4 guys or them too for right offer. Evans or Huerter might be a good 1st round draft pick, then K Williams or Gary Clerk and Kurucs.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:10 pm 
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Pistons:

Trade anyone or everyone. More likely to try with bench guys but not likely to work. If they go for development by coach and 8th seed and showcased deliberative process, they probably won't change much or fast.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:14 pm 
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Griz: Try to market Parsons and 4th pick. Good thought... after the insane signing of Parsons.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:20 pm 
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Heat: I am not fond of their roster or prospects. I'd either try to trade most of their guys (besides Olynyk, Adebayo and perhaps Richardson) or everybody. I doubt they get takers for Whiteside or T Johnson without including Dragic, J Johnson, Winslow and / or draft consideration. Can't see them getting out of the middle without major change (and probably going down).


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