APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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 Post subject: Win Probabilities
PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 8:50 pm 
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Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:11 pm
Posts: 61
Location: Spain
Hi!!!!

I all the playoffs in nyloncalculus usually to calculate the win probabilities of each serie. For example, to the NBA Final's the have published:

Image

I have reading the article where is these calculus of win probabilites and the author says in the article ...

Quote:
The model is trained off historical game data, and accounts for rest, travel, team strength, and matchup. Since I began using the model to predict outcomes, I have been able to correctly identify the winner in about 70 percent of games.


How can I build that model? There is any web or pdf or subject in statistics where explain how to make this models?

Thanks in advance for your help!!!!


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