Win Probabilities

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josecarlos
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Win Probabilities

Post by josecarlos » Thu May 31, 2018 8:50 pm

Hi!!!!

I all the playoffs in nyloncalculus usually to calculate the win probabilities of each serie. For example, to the NBA Final's the have published:

Image

I have reading the article where is these calculus of win probabilites and the author says in the article ...
The model is trained off historical game data, and accounts for rest, travel, team strength, and matchup. Since I began using the model to predict outcomes, I have been able to correctly identify the winner in about 70 percent of games.


How can I build that model? There is any web or pdf or subject in statistics where explain how to make this models?

Thanks in advance for your help!!!!

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