2018 NBA Finals: Cavs - Warriors IV

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Mike G
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2018 NBA Finals: Cavs - Warriors IV

Post by Mike G » Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:13 am

Warriors 1, Cavs 0
124-114 in overtime
Pythagorean wins .75 - .25, eWins .63 - .37

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e530
.26   LeBron James   Cle   47  .680   39.9   6.6   4.7   .8   4.2   .8   2.91
.15   Stephen Curry   GS   46  .604   21.2   5.0   7.3   .8   1.8   .0   1.73
.15   Draymond Green  GS   47  .684   10.2   8.9   6.9  3.8   1.8  1.5   1.64
.14   Kevin Durant    GS   46  .481   15.9   7.5   4.9   .8    .9  2.3   1.61
.09   Kevin Love     Cle   40  .500   14.9  12.8    .8   .0   1.0   .0   1.14

.07 Shaun Livingston  GS   18  1.00   25.5   4.0   5.5  1.9    .0   .0   2.15
.07   Larry Nance    Cle   19  .563   13.7  21.1    .0  1.8    .0   .0   1.94
.05   Klay Thompson   GS   45  .686   19.0   2.6    .8   .0    .9   .0    .62
.03   Kevon Looney    GS   25  .800   13.1   6.3    .0  1.5    .0   .0    .60
.02   JaVale McGee    GS    6  .667   20.7   5.8    .0   .0    .0  5.3   1.75

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e530
.02   Jordan Bell     GS   13  .667   10.1   5.4   5.1   .0    .0   .0    .71
.00   Jeff Green     Cle   36  .389    4.5   3.2   4.1  1.0   1.1   .0   -.04
.00  Jordan Clarkson Cle   17  .222    3.4   6.4    .0  2.0   2.2  2.0   -.09
-.01  Kyle Korver    Cle   16  .429    4.3   4.5   1.7   .0    .0   .0   -.24
-.01  T Thompson     Cle   20  .250    1.8  10.1    .0   .0   2.1  1.9   -.22

-.01  J.R. Smith     Cle   39  .455    6.9   6.1   1.6   .0   2.0   .0   -.12
-.01  George Hill    Cle   31  .500    6.5   2.6   1.0  1.2    .0   .0   -.19
-.02  Nick Young      GS   10  .250    3.0    .0    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.90
shooting: GS .620 - .518 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 48.0 - 34.4 GS
turnovers: GS 8 - 12 Cle

schtevie
Posts: 346
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:24 pm

Re: 2018 NBA Finals: Cle vs GSW

Post by schtevie » Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:46 pm

Having not watched the game, I am interested in hearing from those that did. Kyle Korver was +12 in just 16 minutes. He did not have an impressive box score performance (and I have seen no mention of his impact in media commentary - unsurprisingly) but the scoreboard moved in the right direction when he was on the court. Impressions on whether this was more randomness or a real effect?

Crow
Posts: 5385
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2018 NBA Finals: Cle vs GSW

Post by Crow » Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:51 am

Almost plus 8 per game in 1500 regular season minutes. More than plus 3 in about 500 playoff minutes, second best on team. If adjusted for increased playoff opponent quality, these marks would be closer.

Generally negative in last 4 seasons against Warriors and in last playoffs against them.

Too early to say what this game's mark was.

They probably need it to work, so try it well.

Mike G
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Re: 2018 NBA Finals: Cle vs GSW

Post by Mike G » Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:19 am

Cavs were +8 with Jordan Clarkson on the floor, too. He and Korver watched Nance2 kick butt around the basket. LeBron also had some good runs to the hoop in the 2nd Q, when Cle went up 51-40.
Korver played about half of the 4th Q, made a shot, Jeff Green made some nice plays, the Dubs got careless, Cavs came back from -6.
http://www.espn.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=401034613

schtevie
Posts: 346
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:24 pm

Re: 2018 NBA Finals: Cle vs GSW

Post by schtevie » Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:59 pm

Thanks for that. I semi-cynically view game coaching as a form of performance art, where coaches gotta coach because they get paid the big bucks and that is what they do, and lineup changes is coaching, so the more the merrier. In the instance, Kyle Korver was doing just great in an unadjusted sense and wasn't bumping up against any fatigue constraints (based on regular season mpg). What would be the motivation to diminish his playing time in such a critical circumstance?

This aside, I think it would be an interesting question that could be addressed empirically. There are a whole bunch of moving pieces and parts, but an ambitious young person should be sure to come up with an interesting result, either way.

Crow
Posts: 5385
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Re: 2018 NBA Finals: Cle vs GSW

Post by Crow » Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:48 am

Probably not beating the Warriors with good or better performance by 4 guys. If your top 6 outperform their top 6 it might happen. Sure big or huge performances help but still need to add to it.

Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
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Re: 2018 NBA Finals: Cle vs GSW

Post by Mike G » Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:44 am

Warriors 2, Cavs 0
avg score 123.0 - 108.5
Pyth wins 1.68 - .32, eWins 1.34 - .66

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e505
.40   LeBron James   Cle   46  .645   31.4   7.2   6.5   1.2   4.4   .4   2.24
.37   Stephen Curry   GS   42  .608   27.1   6.1   9.7    .9   3.2   .0   2.21
.35   Kevin Durant    GS   43  .605   22.2   8.4   6.9    .4   1.8  2.2   2.08
.22   Draymond Green  GS   44  .621    7.6   8.7   8.3   2.1    .9  1.3   1.27
.19   Kevin Love     Cle   37  .518   16.9  12.0    .9   1.0   1.1   .5   1.32

.13 Shaun Livingston  GS   17  1.00   26.6   7.1   4.5    .9   1.0   .0   2.00
.12   Klay Thompson   GS   40  .698   21.5   2.5   1.1    .5   1.5   .0    .76
.07   Larry Nance    Cle   16  .500    8.9  18.3    .9   1.0   1.1  1.0   1.22
.07   JaVale McGee    GS   12  .842   26.4   4.5    .0    .0    .0  2.8   1.57
.05   David West      GS    8  1.25   17.1   6.4   7.2    .0   4.2  5.9   1.62

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e505
.03   Jordan Bell     GS   12  .643   11.8   4.2   4.7   1.3    .0   .0    .72
.02   George Hill    Cle   33  .550   10.3   2.4   2.0   1.7    .6   .6    .19
.01 Tristan Thompson Cle   22  .500    8.2   8.7    .0    .0    .9   .8    .17
.00   Kevon Looney    GS   18  .571    7.0   5.2   1.2   1.0    .0   .0    .04
-.01  Jeff Green     Cle   28  .382    5.1   3.2   3.2    .6    .7   .0   -.08

-.01 Jordan Clarkson Cle   13  .231    3.3   5.0   1.1   2.4   2.6  1.2   -.26
-.02  Kyle Korver    Cle   17  .286    2.0   4.1   1.7    .0    .0  1.0   -.37
-.04  J.R. Smith     Cle   35  .366    4.9   3.9   1.9   1.1   1.7   .0   -.27
-.05  Nick Young      GS   13  .111     .7   1.3    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.94
shooting: GS .637 - .509 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.1 - 37.5 GS
turnovers: GS 10.0 - 11.5 Cle

Mike G
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Re: 2018 NBA Finals: Cavs - Warriors IV

Post by Mike G » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:41 am

Warriors 3, Cavs 0
avg score 118.7 - 106.3
pyth wins 2.43 - .57, eWins 1.97 - 1.03

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e497
.70   Kevin Durant    GS   43  .683   30.1   9.6   6.7   .6   2.1  1.4   2.72
.62   LeBron James   Cle   46  .604   28.7   7.4   6.8  1.3   4.0   .8   2.24
.41   Stephen Curry   GS   41  .529   20.3   5.8   9.0   .9   2.9   .0   1.67
.34   Kevin Love     Cle   35  .553   19.2  13.0   1.5  1.0   1.5   .3   1.60
.28   Draymond Green  GS   42  .596    8.1   6.6   8.8  2.0   1.2   .9   1.11

.17  Shaun Livingston GS   17  .933   23.8   4.8   4.5   .6    .7   .0   1.61
.14   Klay Thompson   GS   40  .635   16.8   3.0   1.5   .6   1.0   .3    .59
.13   JaVale McGee    GS   13  .788   27.0   5.8    .0   .0   1.0  3.6   1.71
.11   Jordan Bell     GS   12  .679   17.7   8.4   3.1   .9    .0   .9   1.46
.08   Larry Nance    Cle   15  .500    9.4  14.7   1.2   .7   1.5   .7    .90

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e497
.06   Rodney Hood    Cle   10  .607   15.9   7.4    .9   .0    .0  2.0   1.06
.03 Tristan Thompson Cle   26  .488    7.9   8.4    .0   .0    .5  1.0    .19
.02   David West      GS    7  .625    8.0   8.0   5.4   .0   4.8  4.5    .57
.02   Andre Iguodala  GS    7  .800   14.5   3.3   1.8  1.5   1.6   .0    .39
.00   Kevon Looney    GS   12  .571    6.9   5.0   1.1   .9    .0   .0    .01

-.01  J.R. Smith     Cle   34  .406    7.0   4.1   1.3  1.8   1.2   .0   -.04
-.01 Jordan Clarkson Cle    9  .231    3.6   5.0   1.1  2.4   2.6  1.2   -.28
-.02  George Hill    Cle   31  .519    9.2   2.5   2.8  1.2   2.2   .4   -.08
-.04  Jeff Green     Cle   25  .381    4.9   2.3   2.8   .5   1.0   .0   -.29
-.05  Kyle Korver    Cle   15  .182    1.2   4.5   1.3   .0    .8   .7   -.60
-.06  Nick Young      GS   10  .111     .6   1.1    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.99
shooting: GS .627 - .509 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.7 - 37.4 GS
turnovers: GS 9.7 - 11.3 Cle

Mike G
Posts: 4130
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2018 NBA Finals: Cavs - Warriors IV

Post by Mike G » Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:46 am

Warriors 4 - 0 Cavs
avg score 116.0 - 101.0
Pythagorean wins 3.45 - .55, eWins 2.73 - 1.27

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO    Blk   e493
.94   Kevin Durant    GS   41  .642   28.7  10.0   8.0    .7   2.3   2.0   2.82
.72   LeBron James   Cle   45  .607   27.4   7.3   6.3   1.0   4.4    .8   1.98
.68   Stephen Curry   GS   41  .556   25.3   5.7   7.9   1.4   2.8    .7   2.06
.42   Kevin Love     Cle   33  .528   18.4  13.0   1.6   1.1   1.5    .3   1.55
.38   Draymond Green  GS   42  .587    8.6   5.5   9.3   1.8   1.3   1.3   1.13

.18   JaVale McGee    GS   14  .780   25.1   6.0    .0    .0    .7   3.2   1.58
.17  Shaun Livingston GS   16  .882   20.2   5.7   3.6    .5    .6    .0   1.27
.16   Klay Thompson   GS   37  .610   16.6   3.9   1.2    .5   1.4    .2    .53
.14   Larry Nance    Cle   17  .479    9.1  13.9   2.4   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.02
.13   Jordan Bell     GS   14  .676   15.2   7.9   2.8    .6    .0   1.2   1.22

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO    Blk   e493
.09   Rodney Hood    Cle   14  .474   12.3   8.7   1.4   1.1   1.2   1.1    .81
.07   Andre Iguodala  GS   11  .731   16.9   3.1    .9   2.3    .9   1.5    .82
.06 Tristan Thompson Cle   24  .509    8.8   8.6    .0    .0    .4   1.2    .33
.03   David West      GS    7  .700    9.0   5.6   5.2    .0   3.7   3.2    .45
.01   Kevon Looney    GS   10  .556    8.2   5.2   1.0    .8    .0    .0    .11

.01   J.R. Smith     Cle   32  .437    8.3   3.9   1.2   1.4    .9    .0    .02
-.01 Jordan Clarkson Cle    7  .231    3.7   5.1   1.1   2.4   2.6   1.2   -.23
-.05  George Hill    Cle   29  .441    7.4   3.0   2.5    .9   2.0    .3   -.23
-.06  Jeff Green     Cle   24  .362    4.9   1.8   2.4    .3    .7    .3   -.31
-.07  Nick Young      GS   10  .192    1.9   1.7    .0    .0    .0    .0   -.84
-.09  Kyle Korver    Cle   16  .162    1.2   3.6   1.3    .0   1.1    .5   -.71
shooting: GS .615 - .489 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.3 - 39.0 GS
turnovers: GS 10.25 - 12.0 Cle

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