APBRmetrics

The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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 Post subject: Another draft model!
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:18 pm 
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Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:45 am
Posts: 78
Hi all,

Thought it was time I had a crack at putting together a draft model. Check out the high level details (I put together an easy to read process flow) and the results at:

https://goo.gl/YVBkdn

(Crow - sorry I did see your question from last week, sorry have been busy with work and putting this together)


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 Post subject: Re: Another draft model!
PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:11 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 5184
Thanks for acknowledging the question. Do or not do anything with it as you wish. I put it at your site as a backburner mention.

How do you define the three player types (performances levels required?)? Can you be none of the above? Like just a shooter or a PG sized defender with below average handle / creation? What is the minimum size (by criteria or result) for being a big over a wing?


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 Post subject: Re: Another draft model!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:58 pm 
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Posts: 78
Each position has slightly different statistics that are relevant for their type of position and for players to be considered draftable by the model need to hit the minimum thresholds set. There are a few stats for each position where The model is not as strict, but if a player misses one of these they can still be drafted but typically in the 2nd round or workout candidate at best. The thresholds were determined by current all-nba players performances in the NCAA.

For all 3 positions there was zero leniance given for not hitting the defensive thresholds.

The model does allow you to just be a ‘shooter’ if you hit a certain shooting threshold, but you better be able to play defense and I said above if this is the case where you don’t hit other targets then you won’t go in the 1st round.

A big has certain athletic indicators, rebounding thresholds, playmaking thresholds that differ and seperate them from an athletic wing.


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 Post subject: Re: Another draft model!
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:21 am 
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I agree with most of your lottery ranked. Knox is maybe the one I least agree with but that is on a thin basis. Bagley so low... I agree with lower than what I see from many outlets. I hadn't thought of going that low though.


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 Post subject: Re: Another draft model!
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:43 am 
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Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:45 am
Posts: 78
If carter Jnr and Ayton didn’t have such good FT%s they would have been out of the lottery as well. The model takes their FT% with there low 3pt attempts but relatively good 3pt % and determines they have the scope to be a good enough/sustainable 3pt shooter. It’s certainly not 100% though, so there is a lot of risk Ayton and carter Jnr won’t be able to
Spread the floor and where does that then leave them in today’s game? For my model, it means not a lottery pick.

On a side note....

I ran the last 5 seasons of NCAA data Through it for versatile wings (which I rate as the most important position in the league) and I ramped the thresholds right up. It spat out only 3 names...

Tatum
Stanley Johnson
Jontay Porter (pulled out of the draft). My model had him as early lottery pick for sure.


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 Post subject: Re: Another draft model!
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:43 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 5184
Models can be "wrong" or "right", immediately or eventually. Teams get judged by what they take and what the models say to expect then later their results. Could also compare the expected to actual to judge the model and / or player development (the later measurement could be aided by looking at results of performance on future teams (if they eventually leave). Was Stanley Johnson overrated as a draftee? Underperformed or undeveloped? Is the question answered yet or do we need to see what he does in future years, perhaps on another team? Lots to consider.



If you are say 6-8 to 6-10 (maybe bigger), you could be a wing, a big, both or maybe fully neither. Model classification of these seems especially important. You can use them as one, the other or both but it is somewhat important to get what you want (or you'll have to make adjustment(s).

By this model Bagley is classified as a versatile wing. I guess he could still play PF as that. Maybe even C? If they want, if they want that there. Or if they perceived him differently or want to try to change him.


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