RAPM and real adjusted 4 factors for players for last season

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Crow
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RAPM and real adjusted 4 factors for players for last season

Post by Crow » Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:18 pm

Work by Ryan Davis in courtesy response to my query. See the link on twitter https://mobile.twitter.com/rd11490/stat ... 835520?p=v

Crow
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Re: Real adjusted 4 factors for players for last season

Post by Crow » Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:51 pm

Initial data observations about the overall RAPM:

The unluckiest player (i.e. the one who got the biggest luck adjustment from the raw RAPM) was Joe Johnson (a 3 point adjustment). Thon Maker and Jae Crowder got almost 2 point adjustments. Middleton luck adjusted up 1.5.

The luckiest player in raw RAPM is Blake Griffin. His luck adjustment is down -2.6. Eric Gordon 2nd luckiest in raw RAPM, Embid 10th luckiest. Tatum estimated luckier in raw RAPM than 94% of players. About 80% of players have a raw-luck adjustment differential of less than 1 point.

On luck adjusted overall RAPM, Aldridge finishes first. Curry #2. Lowest luck adjusted estimate? Biyombo. Marcus Morris in bottom 5%. Do the Celtics front office or coach care? Among top ranked on luck adjusted, C Paul and Otto Porter got adjusted down the most from the raw RAPM. Draymond Green and K Middleton adjusted up the most among the leaders. At the very bottom of luck adjusted RAPM, the luck adjustment helps Mudiay and Felicio the most. the luck adjustment hurt D Davis the most of the guys near the bottom.

Comments on the factor data with come later after further review.

Crow
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Re: RAPM and real adjusted 4 factors for players for last se

Post by Crow » Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:46 pm

Factor data has been adjusted and extended to earlier seasons. I'll be doing more study & commentary later. A little bit on twitter thread at above link.

Crow
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Re: RAPM and real adjusted 4 factors for players for last se

Post by Crow » Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:45 pm

Delayed for various reasons, here are some RAPM factor data:

(edit: data from wrong file deleted to prevent inaccurate use)

Mike G
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Re: RAPM and real adjusted 4 factors for players for last se

Post by Mike G » Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:13 pm

What is the definition of "offensive eFG%"?

Crow
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Re: RAPM and real adjusted 4 factors for players for last se

Post by Crow » Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:22 pm

Estimated impact on team's own efg%.

Crow
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Re: RAPM and real adjusted 4 factors for players for last se

Post by Crow » Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:29 pm

(edit: data from wrong file deleted)

Rd11490
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Re: RAPM and real adjusted 4 factors for players for last se

Post by Rd11490 » Tue Jul 24, 2018 2:38 pm

Offensive ft rate- Speights with a big lead over everybody. Out of league. Embid 2. Right or wrong the leader list isn't what you might expect. Harden 67. LeBron 117.
What year are you looking at? For last season it is Lou Williams by a lot, then harden and embiid

Crow
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Re: RAPM and real adjusted 4 factors for players for last se

Post by Crow » Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:52 am

I thought I was looking at 2017-18 but I apparently mislabeled a file. Or maybe it was from before your re-run. Malik Monk is in the set, so it was 2017-18. I dunno.


I have the right file. Thanks for mentioning it.

Ignore the above data. Sigh. I'll look again another time.

Crow
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Re: RAPM and real adjusted 4 factors for players for last se

Post by Crow » Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:10 pm

another try with right file

Estimated own team efg% impact

Tops, Curry. Then James, Paul. Olynyk. Horford, Durant. Harden 10. Lillard 32. B Simmons 47. Irving not that impressive at 73. Westbrook 79, Embid 82.

Blake Griffin 96. Giannis 111. Jimmy Butler 170. Aldridge 239. A Gordon 245. B Ingram 448. Not so good for these lesser point forwards.

Lowry 225. Teague 247. Rubio 250. That ain't helping much. Lavine 457.

Porzingis not so hot at 325 either.

More to discover, but more technical difficulties mean not now.

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