Hey Coach/GM

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Crow
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Hey Coach/GM

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:20 pm

Hey Sean Marks and Kenny Atkinson...

You may not have seen my previous commentary. Look in the 18-19 observations thread to catch up on that.

I just have to ask, what else do you need to see to know if you want to retain Russell at a too big number? If you want to keep, stop playing him with the old dudes who shouldn't be around much or any longer. He is better with younger & bench guys. Absolutely stop the Russell with Dinwiddie debacle.

I imagine you are hedging on who to re-sign this summer. None of the above may be better than Russell or Dinwiddie. Napier is not a step down in results. But you need a step up. If you can trade for some new PG and test that now, I would.

If you stay with all these guys it looks like you might win low 30s. Low 30s, high 20s that really isn't significant.

If you can get a better PG it will be because of the money, money, money, money, playing time and city not because of 32-34 wins vs. 26-28.

Change PGs or lineup strategy. Or continue with what your doing. It is not the absolute worst decision but it probably isn't the best one either.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Hey Steve Mills and Scott Perry...

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:55 pm

I've offered some earlier advice but here is a new summary:

GO BACK TO PLAYING NTILIKINA DOTSON HARDAWAY VONLEH ROBINSON. It was your best big minute lineup. It worked.

Unless you are tanking, then the try everything, change every 3-5 games thing is effective... garbage but effective garbage if you want garbage.

IF YOU WANT TO WIN, FASHION A LINEUP SET FROM YOUR 4 PERFORMING, POSITIVE LINEUPS AND STOP MESSING WITH ALL THE DINK LINEUPS THAT AREN'T WORKING AND ARE WASTING PRECIOUS TESTING TIME.

TRADE LOTS OF PLAYERS INCLUDING KANTER AND HEZONJA. IF YOU CAN.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Hey Steve Mills and Scott Perry...

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:14 pm

Here, I'll help you:

Ntil Dot Hard Von Rob 18 minutes per game
Mud Trier Hard Von Kanter 12
Burke Trier Hez Thomas Kanter 6
Ntil Dot Trier Knox Rob 12

Total minutes

Nt 30, Mud 12, Burke 6
Dot 30, Trier 30, Hard 30, Hez 6, Knox 12, Thomas 6
Von 30, Kanter 18, Rob 30

What it not to like? Why do you think the current lineup strategy is better? Drop me a PM if you want to discuss / refine. I mean I came up with this in 5 minutes. I might be able to do better. But seems like a decent strategy to try to me. 5-10 games trial then tweak. Why not?

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Hey Nate McMillan

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:31 pm

You appear comfortable with your top 2 lineups. But... they are barely above neutral. You will need more than that from them in the playoffs. I might have some suggestions. Ask if you want them.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Hey Dwayne Casey...

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:36 pm

You really need lineup adjustments. That would take a bit of work. PM me if you want a proposal for consideration.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Hey Erik Spoelstra...

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:48 pm

I'd imagine you were hoping for a better record thus far. Not playing any lineup even 3 minutes per game doesn't make sense to me. Of course, that doesn't have to mean a damn thing to you. But if you were open to considering a different approach, PM me or have someone do it for you. You can still blow me off without another thought about it if you want to.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Hey, hey Scotty Brooks...

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:54 pm

Battling for better... lineup rotation might use some further tweaking. No guarantees but there other mixes that could be tried. Got 5 minutes? If you ask, I give you a free package. 5 minutes ain't asking much... but you gotta ask.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Hey Daryl...

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:12 pm

Mike is sure having a rough time with his top 4 lineups. -45 for season, -5.1 per 48 minutes on average for them combined. 129% of the Rockets' negative net point margin per game.

I know D'Antoni is confident things will sort out... if not this week, next week or next month or eventually. I dunno. It might certainly. But seems like some different things may be called for beyond faith and current practices. You probably have plenty of good ideas already and your own timetable. But... if you want an outside opinion, drop me a message.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Hey Coach/GM

Post by Crow » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:37 am

Knicks' lousy performing to date current starting lineup worse than unusual in opening minutes last night then abandoned. If you believe in it, play it. If you care about results to date, stop playing it.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Hey Coach/GM

Post by Crow » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:11 am

Hey Rick Carlisle:

Here is a 4 lineup rotation I came up with in about 30 minutes. It is mainly based on player pair data and RPM. I imagine I could do better with more time and it would probably evolve, if tried. But fwiw:

Barea DFS Doncic Kleber Jordan 20 minutes
Brunson Harris Matthews Doncic Powell 8 minutes
D Smith DFS Barnes Klever Powell 12 minutes
Barea Harris Doncic Barnes Jordan 8 minutes

Barea 28 D Smith 12 Brunson 8
DFS 32 Harris 16
Doncic 36 Barnes 20 Matthews 8 Klever 32
Jordan 28 Powell 20

I don't want or need hundreds of dink lineups. I want the best data I can get on 15-50 lineups. So I'd try some variations off this base, but the focus would be on 7-12 lineups.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Hey Coach/GM

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:59 am

Hey Quinn Snyder,

Your starting units with Crowder or Favors are both good. With Crowder almost twice as good but both good. You are using these lineups almost 30% of the game and winning by an average of 9.3 pts / 100 poss. Theoretically you could use them twice as much, if you didnt use these guys in hardly any other way. You aren't going to do that. But of your next 6 biggest minute lineups that are 1 off variations, 3 are good and 3 are terrible. The problem is you generally can't play well without Ingles. The best bigger minute lineup without Ingles uses O Neale with Exum. With just O'Neale sucks as does just Korver or Burks. You probably need to up your lineup concentration on the top 2 and this non Ingles variation. Outside these 3 lineups, you lose at a mild rate. And you might need another trade for another SF. Korver can help sometimes but not as the main sub for Ingles.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Hey Coach/GM

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:11 am

Knicks are 1-9 in last 10 games. Is that tanking, not running team right and / or not enough assembled talent?

How much did Fiz play your best lineup among the 5 most used for season, which I advocated above to be a real big minute lineup? Not a single second in the last 10 games. That is either tanking or malpractice. The other 3 lineups I suggested as part of the rotation? Very little to no minutes. Doing it Fiz's way, awful results, worse than earlier in season. My way? Looked promising to me. But doesn't appear you want that or see that.

Talk of Noah and Jackson? Attempted distraction.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Hey Coach/GM

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:38 am

Hey Sean Marks and Kenny Atkinson... Saw you extended Dinwiddie. No surprise there. Not terrible but RPM estimate has him at plus 0.01 positive impact. Exciting salary commitment.

Also see that you are still going with Dinwiddie - Russell. In last 5 games only slightly negative... but still one of your worst pairs among the top 20 used. Carry on... I mean who am I to argue against playing 2 of your 3 worst players bases on court and on / off numbers? Not as bad recently but so bad for season that it is still -15 pts / 100 poss. for season and 50% worse than the terrible -10 pts / 100 poss. from last season. Whatever. The main question is whether Russell is staying. I'd hope not given the ill-advised, continued horrible result pairing.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Hey Coach/GM

Post by Crow » Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:58 am

Nate, you and your top 2 lineups are on a hot streak so I'll leave you alone, for now.

Dwayne, you are a real cold streak. But I haven't heard from you, so... Really lacking in shooting talent and / or ability cultivated.

Scotty, still barely hanging on to outside chance. Probably could do better.

Spo, on a hot streak. Playing a few lineups a bit more recently is helping. Probably could do even better.

Daryl & Mike, better recent results but bad injury news? Can you sustain? Need to.

Crow
Posts: 5631
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Hey Coach/GM

Post by Crow » Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:25 pm

Hey Quinn Snyder, 75% of your most used 20 player pairs are positive but only 50% of the most used 20 lineups. Looks like you aren't finishing the mixing right. 8 of the negative top lineups are horrible.

Your top 2 lineups are carrying you. 10 pts per 100 possessions drop off from them to avg. of everything else. Probably should use top 2 lineups more.

Used 402 lineups. Less 27% positive. That is very low. Very poor dink crazy lineup management. Leaving your team outside the playoffs for now.

3 and 4 man sublineups formed by the starters are fine. The screw up, as mentioned before, cones with introduction of bench wings. You need different applications and flat different choices.


Shooting by Mitchell keeps getting worse. With starters can survive it but lose with him and bench guys.

Of guys who played 20 plus minutes per game with a 30 plus % usage since fall 2010, Mitchell's efg% for season is in bottom 12% with the least efficient chuckers.

Mid-range frequency up by about 1/3rd, at the rim down by 1/4th, 3 pt attempts down by 10%. Horrible drifts in wrong direction. Unacceptable by Mitchell with blame to Snyder and Rubio for failure to guide and stop or contain the drift.

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