2019 playoffs

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Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Thu May 02, 2019 4:32 pm

No surprise that Warriors, Bucks and raptors are leading on net rating.

Nuggets and Celtics being the weakest among those remaining might surprise some. Both are playing slow, not getting a lot of FTs. Nuggets not taking many 3ptas. Celtics turning it over a lot and weak at offensive rebounding. Neither forcing opponent turnovers much.

Mike G
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Mike G » Sat May 04, 2019 1:57 pm

Jokic played 65 minutes in last night's 4-OT loss. Most minutes in a playoff game since 1953 at least.
B-R.com indicates he played 1:05 though. I wrote to them that it's an hour:05, not a minute:05.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 30POR.html
McCollum (61 min) gets similar treatment.

Dale Ellis and Xavier McDaniel went 69 and 68 in a 1989 RS game. Otherwise Jokic has the modern record for RS or PO.

Meanwhile, McCollum and Jokic have some really nice numbers at b-r.com, having done all those things in 60 fewer minutes.

EDIT -- May 6 -- Numbers at b-r.com are corrected.
Interestingly, these performances ranked the same in GmSc, before and after correction: Game Score does not consider minutes, apparently. So 40 points in 60 minutes is the same as 40 pts (etc) in one minute.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Wed May 08, 2019 10:16 pm

3ptas per playoff game, per team are up 2 from last playoffs. But the differential between regular season and playoffs has essentially disappeared. 3ptas in playoffs went from 29 in 2017, to 30 to 32. The playoff differential however went from plus 2, to plus 1 to zero.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Thu May 09, 2019 11:20 pm

Irving, by far worst playoffs of his career. Horford, worst playoffs in 5-7 years. Tatum, worst basketball of his NBA career. Hayward, the performance of a $5 mil / year role player. Rozier, runs his mouth, but the play in the time he got sucked.

Morris played well. Unlikely to be back.

Others might not be back or might not really want to be back.

Stevens: "I did a bad job". It appears so.

Mike G
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Mike G » Fri May 10, 2019 1:48 pm

Horford had 2 distinct series:

Code: Select all

opp   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   TO 
Ind  .427   11.9  11.2   6.0   2.9
Mil  .600   16.4   7.3   4.0   2.0

opp   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484
Ind   11.0  .086   2.5   1.28
Mil   16.9  .120   4.1   1.29
I include eWins because it correlates with minutes better than these others.
Top 2 lines are per36 rates. Stl and Blk didn't change.

Hayward, Tatum, and Irving all had dramatic dropoffs from rd 1 to rd2. Brown less so. Only Morris picked it up.

Kyrie's shooting stats for regular season, and for 9 playoff games.
Below that, deficits in FG made and points from FG in each distance range, based on his avg of 19.9 FGA per game.

Code: Select all

RS    0-3    3-10   10-16  16-23  23+
%FGA  .25    .14    .14    .16    .31
FG%   .606   .391   .462   .453  .390
                    
PO    0-3    3-10   10-16  16-23  23+
%FGA  .21    .15    .17    .15    .32
FG%   .541   .308   .387   .407  .310
                    
FGA  -.27   -.24   -.26   -.14   -.52
Pts  -.54   -.48   -.52   -.28  -1.55
Less efficient at every distance, but same basic order of efficiency -- layups, 3's, midrange. Total from bottom line is -3.35 Pts/G
He shot .500 eFG% in round 1 and .389 in rd2, so most of this deficit is vs Mil.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Mon May 13, 2019 2:20 am

The general issues for the Sixers in playoffs were too many own turnovers and fouls.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Mon May 13, 2019 5:25 am

Nuggets in playoffs had a shot distribution well below average on Moreyball and only an average efg%. They didn't shoot many FTs. Shot defense was pretty average. They didn't force turnovers or defense rebound well. Overall the defense was poor. Their main strengths were not turning it over and offensive rebounding. They were Jokic and then not really that more. Murray and Harris were ok to mildly good. Barton was way off.

Mike G
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Mike G » Mon May 13, 2019 10:53 pm

Crow wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 5:25 am
Nuggets ... Shot defense was pretty average. ..
They held SA .030 below their season eFG% and TS%.
Then they held Por .036 below their season shooting.
During the season, they were median in opponent eFG%.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Mon May 13, 2019 11:14 pm

With the final game incorporated, they rank 6th on playoff efg% allowed. A bit better than average. Before game 7's very poor efg% for Blazers, it was not as good.

On average opponent team efg% was down .018. Nuggets did a bit better.

So instead of saying "pretty average", I could have said a bit better than average. But that is still pretty average.

Mike G
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Mike G » Fri May 17, 2019 1:51 pm

Dubs don't need Durant! And they're a lot more fun to watch now. Some nice players who have been stuck on the bench are getting minutes and being productive.
Ranked in order of more minutes in the last 3 games:

Code: Select all

more               with Durant            without Durant
mpg+    dubs     mpg    Usg    O/D       mpg    Usg    O/D
10.8   Jerebko   3.1   13.7    .87      13.9   13.7   1.11
10.4   Bell      1.4   16.4    .87      11.8   20.4   1.28
+8.8   Cook      3.9   21.5    .82      12.7   14.9   1.00
+6.7   Looney   17.9   11.2   1.23      24.6   13.2   1.51
+3.8  Iguodala  29.4   14.3   1.17      33.2   11.7   1.02

+0.9  Thompson  38.6   19.3    .93      39.5   28.6    .91
+0.8 Livingston 13.0   11.9    .88      13.8   14.2   1.26
+0.6   McKinnie  9.2   12.9    .99       9.8    4.6   1.61
-0.5   Curry    36.6   26.0   1.01      36.1   34.9   1.16
-1.0   Bogut     8.9   13.6   1.26       7.9    9.4    .83
-3.1   Green    37.9   16.1   1.06      34.8   20.3    .91

38.2   totals  199.9   17.4   1.04     238.1   19.9   1.11
No-shows are counted as zero minutes in the mpg column. All 11 guys have played in each of the last 3 games (sans KD). In the first 11 playoff games, there were several DNP.
O/D is ORtg/DRtg for these intervals. Mostly it's ORtg that creates these changes.

Reconstituting Pts/Gm = ORtg*Usg*mpg/4800, these guys are making more (or fewer)points since Durant went down, whether from increased minutes, ORtg or Usg%.

Code: Select all

pts+    dubs    ORt   Pts    ORt   Pts
12.1   Curry    115  22.8    133  34.9
+8.7   Thompson 105  16.3    106  24.9
+6.2   Bell      91    .4    133   6.7
+5.3   Looney   141   5.9    166  11.2
+4.0   Jerebko   98    .9    124   4.9

+2.9 Livingston 101   3.3    150   6.1
+2.9   Cook      94   1.6    114   4.5
-1.0   McKinnie 111   2.7    185   1.7
-1.0   Green    118  15.0     95  14.0
-2.3   Bogut    139   3.5     81   1.3
-2.7   Iguodala 133  11.6    111   9.0

35.2    totals       84.1        119.2
First 2 columns with Durant, last 2 without.

Crow
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Re: 2019 playoffs

Post by Crow » Sun May 19, 2019 12:34 am

Sixers, Nuggets, Celtics and others defeated. Perhaps too young. By historical data that appeared to be the case.

Still remains to see who wins this title.

Some of those still standing and recently departed might be closer to or in the traditional weighted average age pocket for title winners next season. Or the season after next.

Will Presti field a team with an average age that is below or well below the youngest modern title winner again? Almost certainly.

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