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2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Wed May 29, 2019 11:46 am
by Mike G
Exclusive to this forum! advanced b-r.com stats and eWins by playoff round:
Code: Select all
rd Raps min PER WS/48 BPM e484
1 Green 143 9.1 .120 4.0 .54
2 Green 231 8.6 .094 0.9 .15
3 Green 147 4.5 -.020 -0.7 -.19
1 VanVleet 115 9.0 .094 -2.1 .57
2 VanVleet 118 2.5 -.044 -3.9 -.39
3 VanVleet 164 10.5 .082 -0.6 .49
1 Leonard 170 28.6 .305 9.7 2.72
2 Leonard 278 31.7 .278 9.4 3.33
3 Leonard 248 25.4 .209 7.5 2.36
rd Raps min PER WS/48 BPM e484
1 Lowry 177 15.0 .172 4.8 1.31
2 Lowry 271 12.4 .101 1.0 .90
3 Lowry 224 18.8 .204 6.7 1.71
1 Gasol 129 19.3 .291 10.8 1.58
2 Gasol 243 10.9 .121 2.2 .59
3 Gasol 190 10.8 .065 3.1 .85
1 Powell 96 16.2 .198 3.1 1.07
3 Powell 137 12.9 .073 -0.8 .78
3 Powell 67 13.0 .118 -1.5 .49
rd Raps min PER WS/48 BPM e484
1 Siakam 188 21.5 .236 5.5 1.94
2 Siakam 242 19.0 .144 1.8 1.72
3 Siakam 221 12.1 .054 1.3 .68
1 Ibaka 103 17.9 .216 4.1 1.50
2 Ibaka 154 9.6 .041 -5.2 .42
3 Ibaka 127 13.2 .063 -2.1 .70
All stats agree Siakam and Green are trending downward. Less unanimous re Gasol and Powell.
Lowry, Ibaka, and VanVleet once were down but now are up.
Draymond and Livingston are steadily rising by all measures.
Code: Select all
rd Dubs min PER WS/48 BPM e484
1 Bell 15 10.8 .025 -2.2 .54
2 Bell 11 24.0 .294 11.3 1.35
3 Bell 54 21.7 .213 3.6 1.42
1 Bogut 88 20.9 .245 6.8 1.66
2 Bogut 22 8.9 .015 -3.7 .40
3 Bogut 24 18.5 .249 9.2 1.39
1 Cook 42 9.6 .005 -5.5 .37
2 Cook 16 7.1 -.024 -4.1 .37
3 Cook 47 10.6 .052 -5.1 .25
rd Dubs min PER WS/48 BPM e484
1 Curry 201 24.8 .249 6.7 1.97
2 Curry 236 15.5 .075 0.6 1.23
3 Curry 158 31.1 .306 10.6 2.76
1 Durant 218 30.9 .291 8.3 2.47
2 Durant 212 22.4 .139 1.6 1.76
1 Green 213 15.4 .113 3.2 1.12
2 Green 241 17.5 .134 5.8 1.41
3 Green 149 22.3 .185 9.1 2.03
rd Dubs min PER WS/48 BPM e484
1 Iguodala 154 19.0 .184 5.3 1.09
2 Iguodala 208 18.0 .158 6.5 1.08
3 Iguodala 79 9.5 .073 1.0 .43
1 Jerebko 16 5.3 -.013 -1.9 .54
2 Jerebko 31 7.9 .013 -3.7 .20
3 Jerebko 48 12.8 .098 0.1 .73
1 Liv'ston 77 4.6 .001 -4.3 -.01
2 Liv'ston 80 11.7 .099 -1.9 .33
3 Liv'ston 67 15.9 .205 2.2 .57
rd Dubs min PER WS/48 BPM e484
1 Looney 108 17.2 .195 1.6 .84
2 Looney 110 17.6 .177 5.0 .78
3 Looney 110 22.3 .255 7.8 1.11
1 McKinnie 58 13.6 .134 -4.9 .58
2 McKinnie 50 3.0 -.019 -5.1 -.26
3 McKinnie 70 12.0 .121 -1.2 .39
1 Thompson 216 12.8 .076 -1.0 .60
2 Thompson 249 12.8 .042 0.9 .74
3 Thompson 165 10.6 .000 -3.4 .74
Is Klay Thompson the worst player on the team (WS)? Or a steady contributor (eW)?
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Fri May 31, 2019 1:06 am
by Mike G
In the conference finals, the GSW outscored Por, a +4.4 SRS team in the RS, by 9.6 pts/100 poss. This you would expect of a +14.0 SRS team.
MIl was a +8.0 SRS team that Tor outscored by 1.0 pts/100 -- making them +9.0 for the series.
But in just the last 4 games by each team, it was +7.5 MOV for Tor, or 15.5 SRS equivalent vs 14.0 by GS.
I expect a 7 game series, and the Raptors have a good chance to win it. B-R.com gives them 48% chance...
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoffs.html
... and they don't factor in the injuries to Durant and Cousins.
Raps about 1.3 pts/100 better in their last 26 games, with Marc Gasol.
Also, in the ECF, Kyle Lowry was Kawhi Leonard's equal in both Win Shares and VORP/BPM.
Reason for these comments is that only 2 of the 21 'experts' at espn pick the Raps to win, while 3 picked the Dubs in 5.
edit after G1: b-r.com link above now shows Tor as 61-39 favorites.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Fri May 31, 2019 11:01 am
by Mike G
Raptors 1 , Warriors 0
118 - 109
Pyth wins .74 - .26 , eWins .62 - .38
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.24 Pascal Siakam Tor 39 .889 38.8 8.9 5.4 .9 1.9 1.9 2.92
.14 Stephen Curry GS 41 .680 29.7 5.3 4.1 .9 2.8 .0 1.62
.13 Marc Gasol Tor 30 .769 28.4 10.3 1.5 2.5 .0 1.2 2.14
.11 Kawhi Leonard Tor 43 .575 18.5 8.0 5.1 .8 1.7 .0 1.26
.05 Kyle Lowry Tor 36 .350 4.9 7.3 12.1 1.0 3.1 .0 .73
.05 Draymond Green GS 40 .417 6.4 10.9 9.8 .9 5.8 .0 .59
.05 Andre Iguodala GS 29 .429 5.5 9.2 9.7 .0 2.7 1.3 .77
.05 Danny Green Tor 29 .611 13.6 3.0 1.6 1.3 .0 2.6 .75
.04 Klay Thompson GS 39 .583 16.9 5.6 1.0 .0 2.0 .0 .48
.03 Shaun Livingston GS 17 .429 8.2 9.4 2.1 2.0 .0 2.0 .80
eWins per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.03 Fred VanVleet Tor 33 .682 16.8 1.3 2.5 .0 1.1 .0 .40
.02 Jonas Jerebko GS 8 .750 24.4 4.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.10
.01 Quinn Cook GS 9 .667 20.7 .0 3.8 .0 .0 .0 .79
.01 Jordan Bell GS 12 .500 4.9 11.4 3.3 .0 .0 .0 .51
.01 DeMarcus Cousins GS 8 .375 8.3 .0 8.5 8.2 4.3 .0 .69
.01 Alfonzo McKinnie GS 8 .750 25.3 4.9 .0 .0 4.3 .0 .65
.01 Patrick McCaw Tor 7 .750 15.8 .0 5.8 .0 .0 .0 .70
.01 Kevon Looney GS 28 .750 11.4 4.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 .0 .17
.00 Norman Powell Tor 5 .500 10.9 7.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .14
-.00 Serge Ibaka Tor 17 .313 6.2 7.0 2.6 .0 3.9 2.0 -.08
shooting: Tor .634 - .583 GS
rebounds: GS 38 - 36 Tor
turnovers: Tor 10 - 17 GS
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:02 am
by Mike G
Some improbable stats are recreated for a single game.
Code: Select all
Dubs min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
Curry 41 25.9 .220 8.4 1.62 .19 .11 .14
Green 40 5.1 -.099 -5.6 .59 -.08 -.04 .05
Thompson 39 10.6 -.009 -2.6 .48 -.01 -.01 .04
Iguodala 29 10.3 .005 0.2 .77 .00 .02 .05
Looney 28 11.5 .055 2.3 .17 .03 .03 .01
Liv'ston 17 13.3 .067 1.3 .80 .02 .01 .03
Bell 12 10.8 .072 -1.0 .51 .02 .00 .01
Cook 9 19.8 .168 0.0 .79 .03 .00 .01
McKinnie 8 14.7 -.052 -8.2 .65 -.01 -.01 .01
Cousins 8 14.3 .053 11.3 .69 .01 .03 .01
Jerebko 8 26.7 .275 6.2 1.10 .05 .02 .02
totals 239 13.7 .051 0.7 .76 .25 .16 .38
Without Curry, this was a lottery team.
In 30 minutes, Marc Gasol's postseason ws/48 went from .141 to .157, bpm from 4.5 to 5.1
Other astounding results, too.
Code: Select all
Raps min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
Leonard 43 15.0 .036 1.9 1.26 .03 .04 .11
Siakam 39 33.3 .291 13.3 2.92 .24 .15 .24
Lowry 36 11.3 .112 3.9 .73 .08 .05 .05
VanVleet 33 24.6 .377 8.4 .40 .26 .09 .03
Gasol 30 30.6 .445 16.3 2.14 .28 .14 .13
Green 29 11.4 .030 5.1 .75 .02 .05 .05
Ibaka 17 -5.9 -.252 -13.5 -.08 -.09 -.05 .00
McCaw 7 17.9 .193 -2.7 .70 .03 .00 .01
Powell 5 14.0 .120 -11.9 .14 .01 -.01 .00
totals 239 18.9 .172 5.9 1.26 .83 .46 .61
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:51 am
by Crow
Some talented streetball players out there.
The coaching? I am not sure.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:55 am
by Mike G
Raptors 1 ,
Warriors 1
avg score 111 - 109
Pyth wins 1.12 - .88 , eWins 1.06 - .94
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.36 Kawhi Leonard Tor 41 .594 26.7 10.7 3.4 .9 3.1 .4 2.10
.29 Pascal Siakam Tor 40 .579 20.4 8.0 4.7 .5 .9 .9 1.74
.27 Stephen Curry GS 41 .613 24.6 3.8 4.0 1.8 1.9 .0 1.59
.20 Klay Thompson GS 36 .639 23.1 5.5 3.2 .5 1.7 .0 1.39
.16 Draymond Green GS 41 .500 10.3 9.5 8.8 1.4 5.3 .5 .95
.15 Marc Gasol Tor 31 .619 16.6 8.5 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.16
.13 Andre Iguodala GS 29 .467 7.2 9.5 8.8 .6 2.8 1.3 1.10
.10 DeMarcus Cousins GS 18 .500 11.5 10.2 7.9 1.9 4.1 1.9 1.34
.08 Fred VanVleet Tor 36 .561 15.4 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 .0 .53
.06 Serge Ibaka Tor 17 .400 9.0 13.4 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.0 .81
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.06 Danny Green Tor 28 .594 13.0 5.1 1.4 .7 2.0 1.3 .48
.05 Kyle Lowry Tor 32 .444 9.9 4.4 6.6 1.2 2.9 .0 .40
.04 Shaun Livingston GS 17 .500 9.7 4.1 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 .51
.03 Quinn Cook GS 16 .714 15.8 1.1 1.1 .0 .0 1.0 .42
.02 Jonas Jerebko GS 7 .500 13.7 6.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .54
.01 Jordan Bell GS 6 .500 4.5 8.8 2.9 .0 .0 .0 .32
.01 Norman Powell Tor 13 .500 10.0 2.6 2.5 1.2 1.2 .0 .14
-.01 Alfonzo McKinnie GS 9 .571 12.4 3.6 1.8 .0 3.6 .0 -.21
-.03 Kevon Looney GS 19 .750 8.3 3.6 .9 .9 1.8 .0 -.35
shooting: GS .583 - .555 Tor
rebounds: Tor 42.5 - 40.0 GS
turnovers: Tor 12.5 - 16.5 GS
the other stats
Warriors
Code: Select all
dubs min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Green 81 10.4 .021 1.5 .04 .07
Curry 81 21.1 .195 6.1 .33 .16
Thompson 71 18.2 .111 2.1 .16 .07
Iguodala 57 12.4 .055 2.5 .07 .06
Looney 38 5.6 .016 0.0 .01 .02
Cousins 36 15.5 .115 3.3 .09 .05
Liv'ston 33 12.8 .089 -1.5 .06 .00
Cook 31 14.1 .144 1.0 .09 .02
McKinnie 18 4.6 -.077 -1.3 -.03 .00
Jerebko 14 14.7 .082 -2.3 .02 .00
Bell 12 10.8 .074 -1.8 .02 .00
Bogut 7 28.6 .329 7.5 .05 .02
totals 480 14.2 .091 2.1 .91 .49
Raptors
Code: Select all
Raps min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Leonard 82 23.0 .165 6.0 .28 .16
Siakam 80 19.2 .131 4.5 .22 .13
VanVleet 72 18.8 .204 5.8 .31 .14
Lowry 64 9.4 .062 0.5 .08 .04
Gasol 61 15.9 .192 5.5 .24 .11
Green 55 8.6 .006 1.3 .01 .05
Ibaka 34 9.3 -.003 -4.2 .00 -.02
Powell 26 11.5 .048 -3.5 .03 -.01
McCaw 7 17.9 .192 -2.7 .03 .00
totals 480 15.7 .119 3.0 1.19 .60
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:27 am
by Crow
There are many stories at the finals. The return of Demarcus Cousins is one. Good for him for battling back and playing and contributing.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:22 am
by Mike G
Raptors 2 , Warriors 1
avg score 115.0 - 109.0
Pyth wins 2.01 - .99 , eWins 1.76 - 1.24
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.53 Kawhi Leonard Tor 40 .617 28.1 9.6 4.4 1.2 3.5 .9 2.12
.50 Stephen Curry GS 42 .615 29.0 5.0 4.2 1.8 2.2 .0 1.93
.38 Pascal Siakam Tor 40 .564 18.6 8.4 5.5 .3 1.3 .6 1.53
.24 Marc Gasol Tor 29 .632 19.3 9.2 3.2 .9 1.8 .8 1.35
.20 Kyle Lowry Tor 36 .544 14.2 4.1 7.6 1.0 2.9 .3 .88
.19 Draymond Green GS 41 .518 11.3 8.7 6.6 1.5 4.8 .3 .76
.19 Klay Thompson GS 24 .639 23.0 5.5 2.9 .5 1.7 .0 1.28
.18 Andre Iguodala GS 29 .521 8.8 8.9 6.5 .8 1.8 .8 .97
.17 Danny Green Tor 27 .712 18.8 5.9 1.5 .9 1.9 1.3 .99
.12 Fred VanVleet Tor 35 .589 14.2 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.0 .0 .56
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.11 Serge Ibaka Tor 18 .450 8.8 11.5 1.3 2.4 2.5 4.0 1.00
.07 Andrew Bogut GS 10 .857 15.6 9.3 3.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.20
.07 DeMarcus Cousins GS 18 .400 8.4 9.0 6.2 1.9 4.8 1.3 .63
.04 Shaun Livingston GS 17 .471 8.3 4.3 3.8 .7 .7 .7 .33
.03 Jonas Jerebko GS 8 .438 12.8 6.7 1.2 .0 .0 .0 .55
.02 Jordan Bell GS 7 .667 5.8 7.9 1.4 .0 .0 2.9 .44
.01 Quinn Cook GS 19 .600 12.5 1.2 1.6 .6 1.2 .6 .11
-.01 Norman Powell Tor 11 .500 7.7 2.1 2.1 1.0 1.0 .0 -.11
-.02 Kevon Looney GS 13 .750 8.3 3.6 .8 .9 1.8 .0 -.30
-.03 Alfonzo McKinnie GS 12 .478 7.5 4.6 1.7 .0 2.8 .0 -.38
shooting:
Tor .590 - .558 GS
rebounds: Tor 41.7 - 40.3 GS
turnovers: Tor 13.7 - 16.0 GS
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:40 pm
by Mike G
With few exceptions, Warriors' stats were beat down last night.
Code: Select all
Dubs min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
Curry 125 25.7 .224 8.2 1.93 .58 .32 .50
Green 122 10.9 .002 0.4 .76 .01 .07 .19
Iguodala 88 14.4 .079 3.3 .97 .14 .12 .18
Thompson 71 18.2 .072 2.1 1.28 .11 .07 .19
Cook 57 10.3 .047 -2.8 .11 .06 -.01 .01
Cousins 55 7.5 -.043 -3.3 .63 -.05 -.02 .07
Liv'ston 51 10.5 .065 -3.7 .33 .07 -.02 .04
Looney 38 4.7 -.022 -1.9 -.30 -.02 .00 -.02
McKinnie 36 1.1 -.098 -4.1 -.38 -.07 -.02 -.03
Bogut 29 22.4 .225 7.2 1.20 .14 .07 .07
Jerebko 24 14.0 .051 -4.0 .55 .03 -.01 .03
Bell 22 13.5 .124 4.1 .44 .06 .03 .02
totals 718 13.9 .066 1.1 .83 1.00 .56 1.25
correl. w min .35 .17 .37 .58 .57 .72 .84
Some disparities across the stats: Draymond has been nearly average (BPM, eWins) or nearly nothing (WS, PER); Iggy is good or very good (BPM). Cousins atrocious or okay (eW)...
Is Fred VV a superstar, very good, or so-so? Danny Green good or super (BPM)?
Code: Select all
Raps min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
Leonard 120 25.3 .206 8.1 2.12 .51 .30 .53
Siakam 119 18.0 .114 2.7 1.53 .28 .14 .38
Lowry 107 13.7 .118 1.7 .88 .26 .10 .20
VanVleet 105 17.7 .206 6.1 .56 .45 .21 .12
Gasol 87 17.3 .201 3.8 1.35 .36 .13 .24
Green 82 14.2 .106 5.0 .99 .18 .14 .17
Ibaka 55 13.8 .071 1.5 1.00 .08 .05 .11
Powell 32 8.8 .030 -5.9 -.11 .02 -.03 -.01
McCaw 9 17.7 .201 -3.9 .58 .04 .00 .01
totals 716 17.2 .146 3.7 1.17 2.19 1.03 1.76
correl. wmin .79 .73 .78 .72 .85 .84 .81
Klay Thompson didn't play last night, but some of his numbers changed:
Code: Select all
Klay PER WS/48 BPM e480
G 1-2 18.2 .111 2.1 1.39
+ G3 18.2 .072 2.1 1.28
Some stats are more stable than others.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:55 am
by Mike G
Raptors 3 , Warriors 1
avg score 112.5 - 104.8
Pyth wins 2.88 - 1.12 , eWins 2.44 - 1.56
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.91 Kawhi Leonard Tor 40 .634 29.7 10.1 3.6 1.8 2.7 .9 2.72
.64 Stephen Curry GS 42 .593 25.7 4.7 4.2 1.5 2.4 .0 1.82
.49 Pascal Siakam Tor 40 .555 18.0 7.5 4.1 .2 1.2 .7 1.47
.32 Marc Gasol Tor 29 .605 17.0 9.4 3.3 1.0 1.7 .6 1.35
.32 Klay Thompson GS 28 .685 23.2 4.6 2.3 .3 1.1 .0 1.36
.29 Draymond Green GS 41 .535 10.4 8.9 7.2 1.4 4.9 .7 .85
.24 Kyle Lowry Tor 36 .495 12.3 3.6 7.3 1.5 2.8 .2 .78
.23 Serge Ibaka Tor 19 .585 15.7 9.9 1.3 1.7 2.3 3.6 1.43
.18 Andre Iguodala GS 32 .452 6.2 7.6 5.1 1.5 1.9 1.1 .68
.16 Fred VanVleet Tor 34 .560 12.7 3.3 3.2 1.5 1.4 .0 .56
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.12 Danny Green Tor 28 .588 13.1 5.3 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.0 .51
.07 DeMarcus Cousins GS 18 .414 9.0 9.3 5.1 1.5 6.0 2.0 .50
.07 Andrew Bogut GS 10 .857 10.4 11.9 2.1 .8 1.7 .8 .83
.05 Shaun Livingston GS 17 .524 9.1 4.9 3.2 1.0 1.1 .5 .39
.03 Jonas Jerebko GS 6 .438 12.4 6.6 1.1 .0 .0 .0 .54
.02 Jordan Bell GS 6 .667 5.4 7.8 1.3 .0 .0 2.8 .40
-.01 Kevon Looney GS 15 .633 9.5 5.9 1.0 .5 1.8 .0 -.08
-.02 Norman Powell Tor 11 .450 5.3 2.3 2.2 1.4 .8 .0 -.23
-.03 Quinn Cook GS 16 .480 9.1 1.6 1.3 .5 1.1 .5 -.21
-.06 Alfonzo McKinnie GS 11 .394 6.0 5.1 1.2 .0 2.2 .0 -.61
shooting:
Tor .576 - .549 GS
rebounds: 40.8 - 40.8
turnovers:
Tor 13.0 - 16.8 GS
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:27 pm
by Mike G
Raps are killing at the inside positions.
xyz is amalgam of WS, VORP, and eWins, scaled to 4.0 total wins.
Code: Select all
xyz bigs tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
.93 Leonard Tor 40 28.2 .281 10.9 2.72 .94 .52 .91
.39 Siakam Tor 40 16.9 .120 2.2 1.47 .40 .17 .49
.36 Gasol Tor 29 16.3 .194 3.9 1.35 .46 .17 .32
.25 Ibaka Tor 19 19.6 .173 5.5 1.43 .28 .14 .23
.20 Dr Green GS 41 11.9 .026 1.0 .85 .09 .12 .29
.10 Bogut GS 10 16.7 .159 3.7 .83 .13 .06 .07
.04 Bell GS 6 14.0 .124 3.6 .40 .06 .03 .02
.01 Jerebko GS 6 14.0 .046 -4.0 .54 .02 -.01 .03
-.01 Looney GS 15 8.6 .019 -3.1 -.08 .02 -.02 -.01
-.04 Cousins GS 18 6.5 -.090 -4.1 .50 -.13 -.04 .07
Short rotation is working beautifully for the north. If one guy is hurt, it would not fly.
On the perimeter, it favors the Dubs, in quality and quantity:
Code: Select all
xyz smalls tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
.63 Curry GS 42 23.3 .186 6.2 1.82 .65 .34 .64
.34 VanVleet Tor 34 15.6 .171 4.3 .56 .48 .21 .16
.31 Thompson GS 28 19.5 .134 3.7 1.36 .32 .16 .32
.25 Lowry Tor 36 12.4 .103 1.1 .78 .31 .11 .24
.18 Iguodala GS 32 11.0 .039 2.4 .68 .10 .14 .18
.17 Da Green Tor 28 9.3 .052 3.0 .51 .12 .14 .12
.06 Livingston GS 17 12.7 .093 -1.9 .39 .13 .00 .05
.00 Powell Tor 11 7.6 .051 -3.7 -.23 .05 -.02 -.02
-.06 Cook GS 16 6.0 -.027 -5.9 -.21 -.04 -.06 -.03
-.10 McKinnie GS 11 -0.9 -.127 -8.0 -.61 -.12 -.07 -.06
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:58 pm
by Crow
There is data here that you don't find in mainstream media. They don't seem interested in going that far. Would be easy to cite or seek simpler summary quotes. Oh well. Maybe you get a few per game stats for the series. Settle for that or go beyond the mainstream media on your own.
Warriors carried more big men on roster than any other team but got these poor big man results. Good that they had depth given injuries, but it appears they still ended up with a significant weakness. Apart from adding Bogut at the very end for modest playoff minutes, nothing was done the entire season to address this issue.
The discrepancies between various boxscore metrics shows how sensitive their ratings are to weights given to certain stats and to the adjustments made to cover stuff not covered by boxscore stats or the lack of such adjustments. There remains strong reason to look at these metrics collectively (as done here) and also consider RPM/RAPM which does not introduce questionable weights on certain stats, doesn't paper over boxscore omissions with subjective adjustments and is not explicitly lacking in consideration of any scoreboard impacts.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Sat Jun 08, 2019 8:38 pm
by Crow
It appears that the most likely thing to save the Warriors (if it is not too late and if this would be sufficient) would be the return to above average team efg%. It is meh so far in this series.
Their shot distribution has been meh in the playoffs series generally. Probably in this series too, maybe worse than meh? Meh in regular season and let be that way. Sloppy practice, biting them now. High in 3 point fga rate in regular season but super weak on ftr and shots at rim. Playoff shot distribution adjusted but only to average distribution. May not be enough.
Raptors shot distribution is meh in playoffs too. They are just a bit hotter in this series. Neither side showing that much discipline or ability to get shots you "should' (imo) want to get. Maybe the defense deserves some of the credit but I am not that impressed with the offensive coaching.
The Warriors have become close to a one trick pony and not a good enough one at that. Lack of Durant, arrogance, slack coaching, poor shooting judgement, good defense, "luck", whatever. Their defense is not remotely close to what is was in 2018 playoffs.
The regular season and playoff data generally suggested the Raptors were the more well-rounded team. They have shown that so far this series too.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:13 am
by Crow
With almost an 8 point net margin the Raptors are looking good. I guess Durant could beat that on his own if he is at his best. But the most likely way the Warriors win would be some combination of Durant contribution, improved play by other Warriors and / or a decline by the Raptors. Probably need 2-3 of these things in general and probably in each game.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:26 am
by Mike G
Recap of participants thru 3 rounds and 4 games of Finals. The 2nd column is per game 'impact' in eWins/G.
Warriors:
Code: Select all
Bell mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .003 3 .333 5.3 6.7 2.1 2.2 .0 2.0 .54
2 .005 2 .667 12.4 6.4 3.0 .0 .0 5.8 1.35
3 .039 14 .587 17.9 5.7 5.4 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.42
4 .005 6 .667 5.4 7.8 1.3 .0 .0 2.8 .40
Bogut mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .051 15 .681 13.6 16.7 5.5 .8 2.0 1.2 1.66
2 .003 4 .250 1.7 15.4 1.7 .0 1.6 1.6 .39
3 .017 6 .750 11.3 15.0 4.7 3.0 3.1 1.4 1.39
4 .017 10 .857 10.4 11.9 2.1 .8 1.7 .8 .83
Cook mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .005 7 .500 12.9 4.0 2.3 .8 1.6 .0 .37
2 .002 3 .200 1.9 4.4 6.4 2.0 .0 .0 .37
3 .006 12 .588 13.6 4.1 .7 .0 1.4 .0 .25
4 -.007 16 .480 9.1 1.6 1.3 .5 1.1 .5 -.21
Cousins mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .008 4 .393 12.4 17.0 7.4 1.5 9.1 .0 .93
-
4 .018 18 .414 9.0 9.3 5.1 1.5 6.0 2.0 .50
Curry mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .138 34 .695 28.7 7.5 5.3 1.3 3.1 .3 1.97
2 .099 39 .532 20.6 4.8 5.0 .9 2.8 .2 1.23
3 .221 40 .652 38.4 7.7 6.8 .5 3.3 .0 2.76
4 .159 42 .593 25.7 4.7 4.2 1.5 2.4 .0 1.82
Durant mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .187 36 .702 38.1 5.5 4.9 1.5 4.2 1.1 2.47
2 .127 35 .576 28.1 4.7 3.9 .7 2.9 .7 1.76
Green mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .083 36 .507 10.5 8.3 7.9 1.0 2.8 1.8 1.12
2 .115 40 .598 12.2 10.7 7.8 1.1 3.0 .8 1.40
3 .154 37 .579 17.1 11.7 9.1 2.2 4.3 2.5 2.03
4 .072 41 .535 10.4 8.9 7.2 1.4 4.9 .7 .85
Iguodala mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .058 26 .566 12.2 5.3 6.0 1.6 .9 1.5 1.09
2 .077 35 .653 15.1 5.5 3.7 1.2 .9 .9 1.08
3 .017 20 .357 3.4 6.2 5.7 1.9 1.5 .9 .43
4 .045 32 .452 6.2 7.6 5.1 1.5 1.9 1.1 .68
Jerebko mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .003 3 .000 .0 10.4 5.9 .0 .0 1.9 .54
2 .002 5 .409 7.0 8.0 2.2 .0 1.0 .0 .20
3 .018 12 .367 5.3 11.4 4.3 .7 .7 .6 .73
4 .007 6 .438 12.4 6.6 1.1 .0 .0 .0 .54
Liv'ston mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .000 13 .341 3.9 4.6 3.9 .4 .9 .8 -.01
2 .009 13 .500 9.3 3.2 3.0 1.2 .0 .0 .33
3 .019 17 .808 13.2 2.5 3.1 1.0 .5 .5 .57
4 .013 17 .524 9.1 4.9 3.2 1.0 1.1 .5 .39
Looney mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .031 18 .667 13.6 8.7 1.5 .6 .3 .6 .84
2 .029 18 .783 13.1 8.3 1.6 .9 1.8 1.2 .78
3 .062 28 .784 15.3 8.1 1.3 1.5 .3 1.1 1.11
4 -.002 15 .633 9.5 5.9 1.0 .5 1.8 .0 -.08
McKinnie mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .012 10 .622 12.1 9.3 .0 .6 .6 .5 .58
2 -.004 8 .350 3.0 7.8 .7 .0 .6 .0 -.25
3 .014 18 .639 11.9 6.4 .5 .5 .5 .0 .39
4 -.014 11 .394 6.0 5.1 1.2 .0 2.2 .0 -.61
Thompson mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .045 36 .571 15.6 3.0 1.5 .7 1.0 1.3 .60
2 .063 42 .550 15.7 4.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 .3 .74
3 .062 41 .467 16.5 3.3 3.0 1.6 2.7 1.0 .74
4 .080 28 .685 23.2 4.6 2.3 .3 1.1 .0 1.36
eW/G and mpg are totals divided by games in the series. DNP count as zeroes.
Sco, Reb, Ast, Stl, TO, Blk are per 36 min., adjusted to standards.
Final column is actually eWins/480 minutes -- or per more min. if there were overtime sessions.
Raptors:
Code: Select all
Gasol mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .085 26 .677 15.6 7.8 4.6 2.9 .6 .8 1.58
2 .043 35 .517 9.4 6.1 3.4 .8 .8 1.4 .59
3 .054 32 .481 8.6 8.3 4.1 .6 1.4 2.3 .85
4 .081 29 .605 17.0 9.4 3.3 1.0 1.7 .6 1.35
Green mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .032 29 .526 11.2 4.4 3.0 1.6 1.3 .7 .54
2 .010 33 .581 10.7 4.8 .7 1.4 1.6 .3 .15
3 -.009 25 .300 2.8 4.9 1.2 2.2 1.0 .7 -.19
4 .030 28 .588 13.1 5.3 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.0 .51
Ibaka mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .065 21 .580 18.0 11.8 2.3 .7 1.7 1.6 1.50
2 .019 22 .473 12.5 7.5 .9 .2 1.6 1.3 .42
3 .030 21 .467 10.3 10.4 1.4 .7 1.3 .5 .70
4 .057 19 .585 15.7 9.9 1.3 1.7 2.3 3.6 1.43
Leonard mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .193 34 .668 38.8 7.1 3.6 1.3 3.1 .4 2.72
2 .276 40 .621 37.8 9.4 3.6 1.2 3.3 .3 3.33
3 .196 41 .561 27.9 8.4 3.7 1.9 2.9 .9 2.36
4 .228 40 .634 29.7 10.1 3.6 1.8 2.7 .9 2.72
Lowry mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .097 35 .533 13.2 5.0 10.3 2.1 3.2 .4 1.31
2 .073 39 .497 12.5 5.1 6.0 1.0 1.8 .3 .90
3 .129 37 .693 23.9 5.4 4.9 .7 1.9 .0 1.71
4 .059 36 .495 12.3 3.6 7.3 1.5 2.8 .2 .78
Powell mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .043 19 .571 17.5 6.3 1.6 1.4 .4 .0 1.07
2 .010 10 .553 10.5 2.9 4.4 .5 .5 .0 .49
3 .036 23 .578 18.1 4.9 2.0 .5 1.9 .0 .78
4 -.005 11 .450 5.3 2.3 2.2 1.4 .8 .0 -.23
Siakam mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .152 38 .595 25.8 8.1 3.4 .2 1.0 .7 1.94
2 .124 35 .523 21.5 7.1 2.4 2.1 1.7 .5 1.72
3 .051 37 .463 12.2 6.5 2.2 1.2 1.6 1.0 .68
4 .122 40 .555 18.0 7.5 4.1 .2 1.2 .7 1.47
VanVleet mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 .027 23 .486 11.2 2.4 7.6 .3 2.1 .3 .57
2 -.014 17 .237 2.3 3.4 2.3 1.9 .9 .5 -.39
3 .027 27 .644 13.4 1.2 3.7 .6 1.0 .6 .49
4 .039 34 .560 12.7 3.3 3.2 1.5 1.4 .0 .56
Toronto's amazing 8 man rotation is drifting to just 7 with Powell's recent ineffectiveness.