2 for 1
Posted: Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:27 pm
As a Raptors fan it's very common to see Lowry recognize a 2 for 1 situation with 30-35 seconds on the shot clock, which necessitates to take the first shot very quickly (frequently 5 seconds or less possession), giving them enough time for the other team to have a full shot clock and then the Raptors to have another very short shot clock.
It's assumed this is the correct strategy, but has there been any statistical studies testing it? For example if the Raptors chose to not take the 2 for 1, they would have the full shot clock - despite having 1 possession instead of 2, it would be a normal offensive possession and presumably higher % compared to the opponent knowing you're going to force one up in both situations. Furthermore, the opponent would potentially be forced into a less than 5 seconds shot clock scenario, as opposed to giving them the full shot clock in the 2 for 1 situation. My guess would be that having 2 possessions still wins out, but would be interesting to see it confirmed. And I would think that there's some point where it's not worth it to take the 2 for 1, for example if your second possession only comes with 2 seconds left, you add that to hurting your first possession and helping the opponents possession, and it's less likely to be worth it.
The higher the clock time is before you start the 2 for 1 while it still applying, the more a no brainer it is to take it. If you are starting a possession with 45-50 seconds left, you should definitely take the shot with enough time remaining to have another possession as you can still run a relatively normal 15 second+ possession on the first one and still get it.
It's assumed this is the correct strategy, but has there been any statistical studies testing it? For example if the Raptors chose to not take the 2 for 1, they would have the full shot clock - despite having 1 possession instead of 2, it would be a normal offensive possession and presumably higher % compared to the opponent knowing you're going to force one up in both situations. Furthermore, the opponent would potentially be forced into a less than 5 seconds shot clock scenario, as opposed to giving them the full shot clock in the 2 for 1 situation. My guess would be that having 2 possessions still wins out, but would be interesting to see it confirmed. And I would think that there's some point where it's not worth it to take the 2 for 1, for example if your second possession only comes with 2 seconds left, you add that to hurting your first possession and helping the opponents possession, and it's less likely to be worth it.
The higher the clock time is before you start the 2 for 1 while it still applying, the more a no brainer it is to take it. If you are starting a possession with 45-50 seconds left, you should definitely take the shot with enough time remaining to have another possession as you can still run a relatively normal 15 second+ possession on the first one and still get it.