APBRmetrics

So....how does something like this happen?




From a relatively equal game for the whole of Q1...and then in Q2 they just go on a 27 point lead!!
I mean I predicted that game correctly but I could never have predicted that run.
Does anyone know what happened there? I wasnt watching and did not do any post-game analysis but was there a different lineup? Something must have happened.

I would really like to know how it would be possible to predict such runs. Any ideas on how one can start to think about modelling this effect?

A good place to start is always the PopcornMachine GameFlows. Old, but still the best visualization of what happened during these runs:

http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20210114&game=INDPOR

The first half of the run (12-0) was against the Enes Kanter / Carmelo Portland bench lineup. Sabonis was still on the floor for Indiana. It looks like they were feeding spot-ups to Doug McDermott.

The second run (also 12-0) was starters on starters, and Brogdon and Turner combined for 3 steals within a few possessions.

When Sabonis Sr. played for Portland, they had a bad night in Indiana.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 70IND.html

Everyone on Pacers shot well in 2nd quarter but Brogdon.

Good shot making, maybe not so good defense.

But can you detect something that happened before the 27 point run that could be used to predict it beforehand?