APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri May 21, 2021 9:59 am**

I agree with Mike that the MVP race is not close.
If you use the magic metric to rank total contribution, Jokic has a season total over 2300, with no other player being over 1900. I use the product of the per game and per minute rating to rank players according to talent, but think the MVP
should be based on the total contribution. But Jokic leads in total, per game, per minute and should be MVP.

Here are my top 100 player ratings based on the pergame/perminute combo.

Code: Select all

╔═════════════════════════╦═════════════╦════════════════╦══════════════╦═══════════╗
║         PLAYER          ║          MM ║        MM/game ║    MM/min    ║    MMProd ║
╠═════════════════════════╬═════════════╬════════════════╬══════════════╬═══════════╣
║ Nikola Jokic            ║ 2302.65     ║ 31.98          ║        0.926 ║    29.61  ║
║ Giannis Antetokounmpo   ║ 1846.65     ║ 30.27          ║ 0.917        ║ 27.76     ║
║ Stephen Curry           ║ 1859.9      ║ 29.52          ║ 0.864        ║ 25.51     ║
║ Joel Embiid             ║ 1427.15     ║ 27.98          ║ 0.9          ║ 25.18     ║
║ James Harden            ║ 1289.8      ║ 29.31          ║ 0.802        ║ 23.51     ║
║ Luka Doncic             ║ 1848.15     ║ 28             ║ 0.817        ║ 22.88     ║
║ Kevin Durant            ║ 955.9       ║ 27.31          ║ 0.826        ║ 22.56     ║
║ Damian Lillard          ║ 1835.45     ║ 27.39          ║ 0.765        ║ 20.95     ║
║ LeBron James            ║ 1185.35     ║ 26.34          ║ 0.788        ║ 20.76     ║
║ Russell Westbrook       ║ 1773.8      ║ 27.29          ║ 0.749        ║ 20.44     ║
║ Karl-Anthony Towns      ║ 1308.15     ║ 26.16          ║ 0.775        ║ 20.27     ║
║ Kyrie Irving            ║ 1428.2      ║ 26.45          ║ 0.757        ║ 20.02     ║
║ Zion Williamson         ║ 1554.6      ║ 25.49          ║ 0.767        ║ 19.55     ║
║ Kawhi Leonard           ║ 1342.1      ║ 25.81          ║ 0.757        ║ 19.54     ║
║ Nikola Vucevic          ║ 1791.45     ║ 25.59          ║ 0.763        ║ 19.53     ║
║ Jimmy Butler            ║ 1321.75     ║ 25.42          ║ 0.757        ║ 19.24     ║
║ Bradley Beal            ║ 1562.95     ║ 26.05          ║ 0.728        ║ 18.96     ║
║ Domantas Sabonis        ║ 1577.8      ║ 25.45          ║ 0.707        ║ 17.99     ║
║ Trae Young              ║ 1533.6      ║ 24.34          ║ 0.722        ║ 17.57     ║
║ Zach LaVine             ║ 1415.55     ║ 24.41          ║ 0.696        ║ 16.99     ║
║ Jayson Tatum            ║ 1576.95     ║ 24.64          ║ 0.689        ║ 16.98     ║
║ Julius Randle           ║ 1773.25     ║ 24.98          ║ 0.665        ║ 16.61     ║
║ Jonas Valanciunas       ║ 1324.35     ║ 21.36          ║ 0.755        ║ 16.13     ║
║ Donovan Mitchell        ║ 1210.4      ║ 22.84          ║ 0.683        ║ 15.6      ║
║ Bam Adebayo             ║ 1461.45     ║ 22.84          ║ 0.682        ║ 15.58     ║
║ De'Aaron Fox            ║ 1351.5      ║ 23.3           ║ 0.664        ║ 15.47     ║
║ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ║ 799.2       ║ 22.83          ║ 0.677        ║ 15.46     ║
║ Paul George             ║ 1226.75     ║ 22.72          ║ 0.674        ║ 15.31     ║
║ Clint Capela            ║ 1333.85     ║ 21.17          ║ 0.703        ║ 14.88     ║
║ Anthony Davis           ║ 787.5       ║ 21.88          ║ 0.678        ║ 14.83     ║
║ DeMar DeRozan           ║ 1358.5      ║ 22.27          ║ 0.661        ║ 14.72     ║
║ Chris Paul              ║ 1493.5      ║ 21.34          ║ 0.679        ║ 14.49     ║
║ Rudy Gobert             ║ 1498.9      ║ 21.11          ║ 0.685        ║ 14.46     ║
║ Jaylen Brown            ║ 1274.6      ║ 21.98          ║ 0.638        ║ 14.02     ║
║ Christian Wood          ║ 871.5       ║ 21.26          ║ 0.657        ║ 13.97     ║
║ CJ McCollum             ║ 1021.9      ║ 21.74          ║ 0.639        ║ 13.89     ║
║ Kristaps Porzingis      ║ 889.15      ║ 20.68          ║ 0.67         ║ 13.86     ║
║ Brandon Ingram          ║ 1323.75     ║ 21.7           ║ 0.633        ║ 13.74     ║
║ Devin Booker            ║ 1422.55     ║ 21.23          ║ 0.627        ║ 13.31     ║
║ Malcolm Brogdon         ║ 1183.7      ║ 21.14          ║ 0.613        ║ 12.96     ║
║ Khris Middleton         ║ 1413.95     ║ 20.79          ║ 0.623        ║ 12.95     ║
║ Tobias Harris           ║ 1268.6      ║ 20.46          ║ 0.63         ║ 12.89     ║
║ Jrue Holiday            ║ 1188.45     ║ 20.14          ║ 0.623        ║ 12.55     ║
║ Pascal Siakam           ║ 1183.55     ║ 21.13          ║ 0.59         ║ 12.47     ║
║ Michael Porter Jr.      ║ 1198.15     ║ 19.64          ║ 0.627        ║ 12.31     ║
║ Khyri Thomas            ║ 96.4        ║ 19.28          ║ 0.63         ║ 12.15     ║
║ Caris LeVert            ║ 913.25      ║ 19.43          ║ 0.615        ║ 11.95     ║
║ Jamal Murray            ║ 976.2       ║ 20.34          ║ 0.573        ║ 11.65     ║
║ Fred VanVleet           ║ 1072.3      ║ 20.62          ║ 0.565        ║ 11.65     ║
║ John Collins            ║ 1159.65     ║ 18.41          ║ 0.628        ║ 11.56     ║
║ Andre Drummond          ║ 809.75      ║ 17.6           ║ 0.652        ║ 11.48     ║
║ Kyle Lowry              ║ 917.75      ║ 19.95          ║ 0.573        ║ 11.43     ║
║ Gordon Hayward          ║ 864.95      ║ 19.66          ║ 0.578        ║ 11.36     ║
║ Ben Simmons             ║ 1103.75     ║ 19.03          ║ 0.588        ║ 11.19     ║
║ Collin Sexton           ║ 1191.25     ║ 19.85          ║ 0.563        ║ 11.18     ║
║ Deandre Ayton           ║ 1275.9      ║ 18.49          ║ 0.603        ║ 11.15     ║
║ LaMelo Ball             ║ 912.35      ║ 17.89          ║ 0.621        ║ 11.11     ║
║ Terry Rozier            ║ 1348.6      ║ 19.54          ║ 0.566        ║ 11.06     ║
║ Richaun Holmes          ║ 1088.65     ║ 17.85          ║ 0.611        ║ 10.91     ║
║ Mike Conley             ║ 911.55      ║ 17.87          ║ 0.609        ║ 10.88     ║
║ D'Angelo Russell        ║ 732.9       ║ 17.45          ║ 0.613        ║ 10.7      ║
║ Kemba Walker            ║ 792.8       ║ 18.44          ║ 0.579        ║ 10.68     ║
║ Chris Boucher           ║ 963         ║ 16.05          ║ 0.663        ║ 10.64     ║
║ Dejounte Murray         ║ 1228.1      ║ 18.33          ║ 0.574        ║ 10.52     ║
║ Jerami Grant            ║ 1018.4      ║ 18.86          ║ 0.557        ║ 10.51     ║
║ Jusuf Nurkic            ║ 582.9       ║ 15.75          ║ 0.662        ║ 10.43     ║
║ Enes Kanter             ║ 1148.65     ║ 15.95          ║ 0.654        ║ 10.43     ║
║ Ja Morant               ║ 1159.15     ║ 18.4           ║ 0.565        ║ 10.4      ║
║ Al Horford              ║ 467.9       ║ 16.71          ║ 0.598        ║ 9.99      ║
║ John Wall               ║ 713.6       ║ 17.84          ║ 0.554        ║ 9.88      ║
║ Jarrett Allen           ║ 1074.15     ║ 17.05          ║ 0.576        ║ 9.82      ║
║ Victor Oladipo          ║ 585.65      ║ 17.75          ║ 0.542        ║ 9.62      ║
║ Thaddeus Young          ║ 1039.35     ║ 15.28          ║ 0.629        ║ 9.61      ║
║ Mason Plumlee           ║ 896.5       ║ 16.01          ║ 0.598        ║ 9.57      ║
║ Bogdan Bogdanovic       ║ 737.8       ║ 16.77          ║ 0.565        ║ 9.48      ║
║ Robert Williams III     ║ 695.6       ║ 13.38          ║ 0.706        ║ 9.45      ║
║ Thomas Bryant           ║ 159.15      ║ 15.92          ║ 0.587        ║ 9.35      ║
║ Montrezl Harrell        ║ 1007.3      ║ 14.6           ║ 0.638        ║ 9.31      ║
║ Lonzo Ball              ║ 939.05      ║ 17.07          ║ 0.538        ║ 9.18      ║
║ Jordan Clarkson         ║ 1062.4      ║ 15.62          ║ 0.584        ║ 9.12      ║
║ Kelly Olynyk            ║ 1126.45     ║ 16.09          ║ 0.564        ║ 9.07      ║
║ Jaren Jackson Jr.       ║ 159.5       ║ 14.5           ║ 0.618        ║ 8.96      ║
║ Kyle Anderson           ║ 1075.3      ║ 15.58          ║ 0.57         ║ 8.88      ║
║ Bobby Portis            ║ 889.65      ║ 13.48          ║ 0.648        ║ 8.74      ║
║ Malik Beasley           ║ 625.7       ║ 16.91          ║ 0.515        ║ 8.71      ║
║ Andrew Wiggins          ║ 1209.4      ║ 17.03          ║ 0.512        ║ 8.72      ║
║ Evan Fournier           ║ 678.6       ║ 16.16          ║ 0.539        ║ 8.71      ║
║ Harrison Barnes         ║ 1029.7      ║ 17.75          ║ 0.49         ║ 8.7       ║
║ Draymond Green          ║ 1016.3      ║ 16.13          ║ 0.513        ║ 8.27      ║
║ Anthony Edwards         ║ 1173.8      ║ 16.3           ║ 0.507        ║ 8.26      ║
║ OG Anunoby              ║ 713.75      ║ 16.6           ║ 0.498        ║ 8.27      ║
║ Norman Powell           ║ 1109.75     ║ 16.08          ║ 0.503        ║ 8.09      ║
║ Derrick Rose            ║ 715.3       ║ 14.31          ║ 0.559        ║ 8         ║
║ Tyrese Haliburton       ║ 895.4       ║ 15.44          ║ 0.513        ║ 7.92      ║
║ Myles Turner            ║ 733.4       ║ 15.6           ║ 0.504        ║ 7.86      ║
║ Darius Garland          ║ 869.15      ║ 16.1           ║ 0.486        ║ 7.82      ║
║ T.J. McConnell          ║ 981.2       ║ 14.22          ║ 0.546        ║ 7.76      ║
║ Kevin Love              ║ 347.45      ║ 13.9           ║ 0.559        ║ 7.77      ║
║ Buddy Hield             ║ 1157.55     ║ 16.3           ║ 0.476        ║ 7.76      ║
║ Devonte' Graham         ║ 835.05      ║ 15.18          ║ 0.503        ║ 7.64      ║
╚═════════════════════════╩═════════════╩════════════════╩══════════════╩═══════════╝

Posted: **Fri May 21, 2021 5:42 pm**

Thanks for deleting the duplicate post!

Posted: **Fri May 21, 2021 6:06 pm**

You're welcome! I also fixed the table formatting.

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2021 11:15 am**

It's funny how the 'narrative' can drive the facts, rather than vise versa. In this case, most commenters I've seen have eventually come around to acknowledging Jokic, but some are still holding out for others.

When and why did the NBA decide to announce a Final 3 -- Jokic, Embiid, Curry ? The votes are all cast, but they have to keep the winner secret until the Finals?

Jokic may also be the most improved player in the league, relative to last year or his previous best. But that award is reserved for players not widely perceived to have been 'very good' previously.

Giannis may be 'most dis-improved' from his incredible previous season; but he actually ranks above both Curry and Embiid in Win Shares, BPM, and VORP; also over Curry in WS/48 and PER.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html

b-r.com MVP Tracker has it Jokic-Giannis-Embiid as clear 1 thru 3; big drop to Kawhi at #4; Curry barely gets in at #10.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

Posted: **Sat May 22, 2021 1:04 pm**

I wondered if they had changed things when they came up with the final 3 list. Marketing hype I suppose.

Posted: **Tue May 25, 2021 10:29 pm**

Mike G wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 11:15 am It's funny how the 'narrative' can drive the facts, rather than vise versa. In this case, most commenters I've seen have eventually come around to acknowledging Jokic, but some are still holding out for others.

When and why did the NBA decide to announce a Final 3 -- Jokic, Embiid, Curry ? The votes are all cast, but they have to keep the winner secret until the Finals?

Jokic may also be the most improved player in the league, relative to last year or his previous best. But that award is reserved for players not widely perceived to have been 'very good' previously.

Giannis may be 'most dis-improved' from his incredible previous season; but he actually ranks above both Curry and Embiid in Win Shares, BPM, and VORP; also over Curry in WS/48 and PER.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html

b-r.com MVP Tracker has it Jokic-Giannis-Embiid as clear 1 thru 3; big drop to Kawhi at #4; Curry barely gets in at #10.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

Yeah, NBA is clearly about narratives vs stats. Some of that I get with MVP stuff, but Embiid still missed 30% of his team's games. Curry's team didn't actually make the playoffs and Giannis' team was the best in the East by SRS, 4th best in the NBA... which is in addition to the individual stats you outlined.

It's Jokic by a country mile, and then probably Giannis as 2nd.

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